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anthlj

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  • Axion Power Concentrator 381: Nov. 16, 2014 [View instapost]
    Well the credits are rolling on this one and what a debacle.

    Too many people (me included) took a cold ice bath on this story.

    A text book exemplar for what can happen to a struggling public company on the margins of the financial landscape.

    Currently the commercial world has little-to-no interest in the PbC battery.

    Assuming the tech does possess commercial potential (at this stage not a small assumption) then for me historical management (both executive and board) have to shoulder a substantive slice of the blame. A case of completely misreading the nature of the business, its place in a commercial ecosystem, and the difficulty in landing new tech of this type.

    Revisiting some earlier comments of the former CEO, one can at best class him as a fantasist. But the inexplicable cash bonuses and lack of stock-based compensation or incentives suggests something more cynical. Wiser and more experienced heads smelled something unpleasant and took flight. Shame upon me for not doing the same.

    At least the present incumbent isn't fastening his seatbelt, wandering around with a spring in his step or fretting publicly about his limited production capacities. Time will tell if this makes the slightest difference.


    As a experiment in online human dynamics, the concentrator has certainly been interesting, with some important lessons learned. Despite all the exchanges of information and thought (comprising of course a broad spectrum of quality) most participants still lost money. There was a consistent paucity of real data. A cloak of secrecy surrounding, well, not very much at all. We filled the data vacuum with unsubstantiated hopium.

    If there can be criticism of the forum, then it must be that it too readily indulged the intolerance of viewpoints non-compliant with those of a small but highly vocal and bombastic minority. Turns out the vocal minority were dead wrong. And not only about this story. If it were me, there would not be a rock large enough to crawl under in terminal embarrassment. But we are dealing with a different personality type.

    They say every cloud, but maybe not this one.
    Nov 18, 2014. 01:16 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 330: May 08 '14: Revese Split Consent Solicitation Filed; Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials [View instapost]
    Rick's may not have been the most eloquent of his contributions, but he has always tried to stay off the hopium pipe and live in the real world. This in contrast to others here, whose rose-tinted viewpoints are inexhaustibly adaptable to constant selling, parasitic financing, broken promises and the increasingly obvious truth.

    Every day that passes adds credence to the viewpoint that legacy holders will be flushed in one way or another. The current path is unsustainable. If there is a route to sales, I do not see it. I'd need to be picked off the floor if automotive came through at this point, rail is a fine POC but will not bring volume, stationary is highly competitive and each deal hard won and relatively small. EPower? Watch out for the rose tinted lens that opportunity is being viewed through.

    Based upon performance (the only metric that counts), the competency of executive management is underwhelming. Personality doesn't come into it if the job is done right. They fight only for their salaries and guaranteed cash 'bonus'. That is to say, as long as new money of whatever color comes into the business, they do fine. Rain or shine. There is no stock incentive. Options are priced at $1.50+.

    If in fact the tech represents a viable solution to real problems, then someone other than legacy holders should be paying the price for failure.
    May 10, 2014. 11:14 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 323: Apr. 14 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Not a particular fan of the dreary Mr. G, but if you review the last call transcript, I don't think the CEO directly announced the promise of sales within 44 days. Now this may be simply a case of a 'once bitten twice shy' CEO, but those expecting booked sales *may* be disappointed once more. In any event, we should adhere to what was said, not what we'd like to have been said:

    And last question thank you, the update on the substantial sales issue that we've been following for the last several months.

    Thomas Granville
    Well I am going to mention here in my closing remarks than it’s a short 44 days to the next call. And we’re looking forward to that call because we’re looking forward to update everybody on how that is going and progress that we’re making. Would I love to have seven or eight of these projects under lock and key? Absolutely. Walk before we run for sure, is this a Norfolk Southern automotive scenario where it’s going to take forever to test, no that’s not where we are.

    ...The next call will be in a short 44 days from now. We’re happy with that timeframe because it will allow us to update you on the fast moving market initiatives that we have embarked upon.
    Apr 15, 2014. 07:34 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 319: Mar. 31 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Alpha,
    Agreed.

    Slim pickings for the Q4 results. Usually in these docs there is something to pin hopes on. Even the silver lining seems missing from this opaque cloud of inadequacy.

    Axion needs to sell batteries to survive in its current form. Unless positive evidence emerges tomorrow, perhaps the best thing Axionistas can do in support of their investment is petition the board of directors for change in executive leadership.

    On the current trajectory, the 2014 financing will be beyond ugly for existing stakeholders.
    Mar 31, 2014. 07:06 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 317: Mar. 22 '14: David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    The CFO departure is a matter of relative opportunity: the man saw more of it elsewhere.

    Which either means he has the opportunity of a lifetime in plan B, or that he does not buy into the Axion success story.

    Consider his package, a respectable salary, 900k options vesting over 5 yrs at $0.15.

    If, after 6 months on the inside, the departing CFO had viewed Axion as a likely win over a 5 year timeframe, then he stood to make a significant amount of money. People tend to hang around, if invited to, for those kind of pay days. Certainly he was more monetarily incentivized than either TG or Vani.
    Mar 26, 2014. 07:15 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 317: Mar. 22 '14: David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    RB,
    Was his name Vani?
    Mar 24, 2014. 10:24 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 311: Mar. 06 '14: David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    me too:

    'Thank you for your inquiry. As this concept hybrid system was developed by our R&D center in Europe, I will defer to Vladi Alexiev, our PR Manager at Kia Motors Europe.'

    Thus far nothing from Vladi. Maybe he's been soaking in a carbon paste hot tub with executives from Exide and ALABC.
    Mar 7, 2014. 08:04 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 306: Feb. 18 '14: David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    an entreat to management:

    sell some ….ing batteries please
    Feb 21, 2014. 12:12 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 306: Feb. 18 '14: David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    <6 months of runway and you are looking ripe for the picking to the financing community. Add to that the recent PIPE history and Axion are already on an increasingly slippery slope. TG and CFO should have been weighing options/entering initial discussions with money well before now. Only reason to delay would be the actual (not promised) appearance of the mythical path to sales growth between now and end Q3.

    Given the famed opacity of the Axion executive crystal ball, delaying a financing deal would mean entertaining great risk. Because as bad as the dilution has been, it can get a lot worse in a world without sales.

    Some may think this overtly pessimistic. I consider it only realistic. A cursory review of events over the past 3 years should indicate we are operating in an unforgiving milieu.

    Again the cry - SSFBP
    Feb 21, 2014. 11:35 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 303: Feb. 8 '14: David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    AXPW: FANTASY VS REALITY??
    A cynic's viewpoint

    'our sales force'
    translation: Vani and his goldfish. Or are there others at this point (direct employees, agents or otherwise)?

    'undertaken an initiative to service these off shore markets'
    translation: sent an email or two that nobody responded to

    SSFBP
    Feb 11, 2014. 09:38 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 302: Feb. 5 '14: PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Stockholders obsess over battery sales, or the promise of a path to sales, because without these things their paper losses will not only persist but likely widen. As an investment, Axion has spectacularly under performed even the most bearish prognoses over these past few years. Your relentless optimism is on some level admirable, but with the passage of time, has for many here undermined credibility. Troublingly, with another financing looming, it seems stockholders once again find themselves relying upon Axion to quickly land those mythical bouncy sales that management keep intimating are just around the bend.
    Feb 5, 2014. 07:25 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 292: Dec. 27 '13: Q3 '13 Results; Sale Of PowerCube™ ESS; John Petersen Joins EPower [View instapost]
    I stand corrected over UB suitability for ePower, but find it difficult to believe that as Bowman et al. tie their and ePower's future ever closer to the PbC, they are not increasingly concerned that Axion's problems may become their own. Usually good to have a plan B, no?
    Jan 2, 2014. 10:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 293: Jan. 01 '14: Q3 '13 Results; Sale Of PowerCube™ ESS; John Petersen Joins EPower [View instapost]
    2014:
    In a single sentence, as of 1st January 2014, we have a company with an interesting battery technology/product with no immediate path to revenues.

    Absent a path to revenues, the current business model is reaching its denouement. This is likely to produce robust change, most probably to the detriment of current holders.

    Axion will need additional cash somewhere between start Q2 and Q4, depending upon current PIPEists option to demand cash +25%.

    This cash can come in the form of a 'strategic partner' or an additional PIPE. Either way you sell half the company for 12 months runway. There is nowhere else to go, no free lunch. Indeed, current holders pay in blood. Personally I prefer the strategic partnership. Current management will prefer the former, guaranteeing their continued salaries and additional time to deliver. Under the partner, current management will be gone sooner rather than later, because they failed to commercialize the technology. So here interests of management and the stockholder diverge. I therefore expect PIPE2. This will make PIPE1 seem like a walk in the park. But TG gets another year of salary and is another year closer to retirement. This is the old warrior's primary driver, and who would blame him. Family come first.

    The dynamics change dramatically if a path to revenue emerges, but this has to happen fast.

    Management indicate that stationary is the most favorable current market, the culmination of the past year plus sales work. Not many here see stationary as the answer to Axion's problems, yielding small single millions/year in non-repeating revenues.

    Second market is ePower, but this will not come soon enough, if it comes at all, early days there.

    Rail we can effectively eliminate as a source of meaningful revenue, possibly furnishing some degree of product validation, but not revenue.

    Auto is the wild card. A deal with BMW battery manufacturer or similar would be big, indicating path to automotive sales and means by which to produce volume for other markets (ePower?). No one has a clue when or if this might occur.

    An alternative path is to change the operating plan and slash costs. Stockpile electrodes for a few thousand PbCs, and halt all production. Subcontract/license PbC manufacturing to others. Maintain only a skeleton staff. Revisit if design wins are forthcoming.

    One thing clear as of today, the current trajectory is no longer functional. Change will come.
    Jan 2, 2014. 08:05 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 292: Dec. 27 '13: Q3 '13 Results; Sale Of PowerCube™ ESS; John Petersen Joins EPower [View instapost]
    ePower will almost certainly try the UB, and other similar offerings, because there is a real strategic risk that current PbC practitioner Axion will not be around for them to work with and they cannot be assured that they can control rights to the tech in any fire sale.
    Jan 2, 2014. 06:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 290: Dec. 19 '13: Q3 '13 Results; Sale Of PowerCube™ ESS; John Petersen Joins EPower [View instapost]
    Relax. TG has a master plan. I refer of course not to the one in which he stockpiles cash prior to retirement, but the other one, you know, where he orchestrates returns to shareholders.
    Dec 19, 2013. 02:52 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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