Seeking Alpha

LawrenceFeinstein's  Instablog

LawrenceFeinstein
Send Message
My name is Lawrence and this is my blog. I have been trading and researching stocks and equities since the early 70s. I received a BA in Economics from the University of Phoenix in 1985 and an MBA from Rasmussen College in 1993.
View LawrenceFeinstein's Instablogs on:
  • Herbalife Is Rallying But There Is A Lot Still Yet Unseen

    The Ira Sohn Investment Conference is taking place in Manhattan today where many of the best money managers, John Paulson, William Ackman, and Jeffrey Gundlach are present to share their ideas on investing.

    According to new analyst notes mentioned on EquityPremier.com (1), it's been discussed that David Einhorn's hedge fund Greenlight Capital is shorting shares of Herbalife. Herbalife, a pyramid scam depends on someone buying nutriton products and recruiting others to sell the products as well as selling the product to consumers. This comes after he participated in a conference call on May 1st to discuss methods used to gain customers.

    Critics like Count Caris and Company analyst Linda Bolton Weiser feel that Einhorn will announce a short causing her to cut the stock to average from buy just last week noting the grave risk in buying stock. In fact Bolton Weiser believes once Einhorn talks, the stocks could collapse. In her opinion this can be avoiding if management shows, "its confidence in future cash flow." They could do this by reinforcing share repurchases or possibly boosting the cash dividend.

    The fate of Herbalife is hindering on what Einhorn will say at the conference. Whether it's a pyramid scam whose days or numbered, or a strong business worth investing in, is yet to be determined.

    (1) EquityPremier.com - Institutional-grade news sourced from outlets including investment banks and ratings companies. - http://www.equitypremier.com

    Fair disclosure: I do not own any Herbalife stock currently, but do intend on involvement within the next 14 day period.

    Tags: HLF, hlf, einhorn
    May 17 3:09 PM | Link | Comment!
  • The Upside Of Trading Teva At Current Levels

    Jeremy Levin, the former head of Bristol-Meyer Squibbs and Novartis is enjoying his new time as the new CEO of Teva Pharmaceuticals. Taking over the position from Shlomo Yanai , current shareholders and wall street investors should expect more merger activity and rumors coming. Levin has been associated in the past heavily with acquisitions and Teva will be no different. With some easy analysis, one can easily realize that the current price of Teva is nearly 40% undervalued, and should be on the buy-list.

    In the fiscal year of 2011, Teva had 18.3 billion in revenue. This represents a 14% gain from the previous year. Conservatively, and realistically we can expect at least 8.5% annual growth over the 5 years.

    Then we look at the cost-side of the equation, there are several things to examine, capital expenditures, taxes and operating expenses. Cost of goods sold should be conservatively modeled at 46% of revenue and roughly 24% of SG&A, R&D instead, should be modeled at around 6% as well as 5% for the CAPEX.

    In a recent Financial Times article (1), editor in chief Henry Blodget cited an EquityPremier.com (2) note, that broke down this analysis. Blodget noted, that if you take a growth of about 2.5% per annum and discounted backwards, the WACC of 9%, you would yield a value number of roughly $62 a share. This is a represented upside of over 40%. At the current moment, the company trades below ten times our 2012-2013 free cash flow estimate.

    The finality of this is obviously deeply rooted in the context of excellent operating, and management health under a focused business strategy.

    Disclosure: I do not own TEVA stock, or options, but may begin a long position in the near future.

    1. http://www.ft.com/ - FT is a UK-based, equities, market, political, and commentary website with real-time global coverage of all markets.

    1. 2. http://www.equitypremier.com/ - Equity Premier is American-based, equities, stock market, and earnings research company with coverage of over 3000 news outlets.

    May 06 3:46 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Apple and the Golden Touch
    At its current price of $350, Apple is showing all the right signs of a strong move upward. If you look at all the analytics, the resistance shows that it broke resistance around the $340 dollar mark. At this point there is nothing holding the stock back except for minor obstacles within the market. 

    In addition to the great fundamentals, this is primarily a company about Apple, and the man behind Apple: Steve Jobs. Time and time again he has been proven to be the foremest and industry leader in hardware technology. He has the brain, knowledge and showmanship to lead a top company. 
    Jun 03 12:09 AM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers
Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.