Leonard Shelby

Leonard Shelby
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  • A High Risk/High Reward Play For Gold In 2013  [View article]
    Very large spread - $2.85 bid. $3.50 ask (22.8%), for an option that's WAY out of the money... $58 strike, $63.88 current price. If the price of GLL should drop from $63.88 to $58 (9.2%) by expiration, you'd still LOSE 100% of your investment. You need price of GLL to drop from $63.88 to 54.50 (14.68%) just to BREAK EVEN at expiration. In order to make any money, you need the price even lower. This seems like a really lousy proposition.

    Have you considered SELLING the July GLL $63 call? Still a large spread - $5.40 bid $6.40 ask, but at least you'd have the time value decay working FOR you instead of against you. GLL would have to rise from $63.88 to $68.40 (7.08%) for the buyer of the option to break even, and even higher for you to lose money. On the other hand, if the price of GLL were to drop to just $63 (a mere 1.38%), you would keep the entire option premium. If you wanted to shoot for more option premium, you could sell call options that are deeper in the money, such as the July $62 ($5.80 bid, $6.80 ask), $61 ($6.50 bid. $7.40 ask), or $60 ($7.10 bid, $8.00 ask) GLL call options. What do you think?
    Dec 29, 2012. 12:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fall Down Friday: Cliff Diving Special  [View article]

    We're freaking doomed
    Dec 22, 2012. 10:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kissing Assets Goodbye  [View article]
    Excellent explanation. I am tired of reading idiotic commentaries stating that the economy benefits from disasters. As you say, we could destroy assets on purpose to make the economy boom, if that made any sense!
    Nov 2, 2012. 07:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Disasters: Unfair Stimulus  [View article]

    Why don't we break every window in the land! Then we can really be prosperous!
    Nov 1, 2012. 07:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Storms Coming  [View article]
    Skin color influences a lot of people to vote FOR Obama. As Matt Damon said in Good Will Hunting, "How do you like THEM apples?"
    Oct 30, 2012. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If it's a healthy sign when small caps (IWM) lead large caps (SPY) during a rally, then the recent move higher should come with a warning. Small caps failed to take out their July 19 high and instead made a series of lower highs that month, writes Joe Bell. Actually, the S&P outperformance has been going on for longer than 4 weeks.   [View news story]
    I agree with your sentiments completely, however, the 50 dma on the Russell 2000 ($RUT) at 778.19 is still above the 200 dma at 777.42, although just barely. Maybe Friday we'll get the death cross.
    Aug 3, 2012. 04:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Busy Weekend In Vegas After A Weak Month In The Market  [View article]
    Now how do you feel about LVS? You said in June it was a fantastic buy at $48, and now it's $36.91. Oops! Oh, yeah. Investing in Las Vegas Sands HAS made me money, because I had put options.
    Aug 3, 2012. 04:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If There Was No Cash?  [View article]
    Why should only 5% of an investor's balance in a money market fund be stuck for thirty days? And why for only 30 days? Why not 30% for 30 months, or maybe more? Oh yes. This is how they started the Federal Income Tax-only 1% on the richest 0.1%. And this is how they started Social Security too. They LOVE to put us frogs into boiling water. I'm in solid dividend payers like BMY, GFI, MO, TOT, DUK, NVS, COP, OXY, VZ, VOD, and WY. I have some gold bullion coins, and keep only as much cash as necessary. Cash is trash, anyway.
    Jul 29, 2012. 08:21 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tweaking Option Strategies  [View article]
    What if my broker does not allow me to sell naked options? (And there are many brokers who do allow spreads, but do not allow selling of naked options) Then I think I cannot use your tweak, which I believe is making a ratio spread. If I sold one-half 133 puts and one-half 132 puts, I'd collect much less premium than by selling nothing but 133 puts. What do you think?
    Jun 28, 2012. 01:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Busy Weekend In Vegas After A Weak Month In The Market  [View article]
    Are you sure you wouldn't like a hit?
    Jun 13, 2012. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Busy Weekend In Vegas After A Weak Month In The Market  [View article]
    Leonard only cares about technical analysis. He doesn't care about fundamental news. If LVS can't break through overhead resistance, he isn't interested in buying the stock. As Brian Shannon says, "ONLY PRICE PAYS!!!"
    Jun 13, 2012. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Busy Weekend In Vegas After A Weak Month In The Market  [View article]
    You should not buy LVS unless it can break through the "neckline" resistance at $48.60, otherwise it will just continue lower. That is the proper way to play an inverted H&S. As a matter of fact, IMHO, I do not see LVS getting any higher than the 20 day simple moving average at $46.65, which would be an excellent place to go short (or buy put options). The P&F chart has a bearish objective price of $29. Bottom - picking is an expensive hobby. Don't forget, the trend is your friend, and the trend is still DOWN. The 10 day m.a. is below the 20 day m.a., which is below the 50 day m.a., which is below the 100 day m.a., which just crossed below the 200 day m.a. All these moving averages are heading down, except for the 200 day. A better buy is VZ, which is clearly bullish. It pays a handsome 4.7% dividend. Ex-div date is 7/6/12 and payable date is 8/1/12. A safe and boring stock can be a beautiful thing in a bear market. :-)
    Jun 13, 2012. 05:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is 2012 Like 1998?  [View article]
    What use is Fed intervention to "increase liquidity" and lower rates? Short term rates are near zero and long term rates are already cratering. The market should be allowed to clear itself, but the government busy-bodies know they can fool almost everyone into thinking good times are here again by feeding the zombie companies and boosting nominal stock values. I'm long PSLV, SGOL, NEM, GG, ABX, and GFI, and have July put options on IWM and SPY.
    Jun 5, 2012. 07:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Money Does It Take To Make Money?  [View article]
    I don't think he got the reference, Laurence Olivier to Dustin Hoffman.
    May 18, 2012. 07:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wynn Resorts: The Show Has Just Begun  [View article]
    In the marketplace, an exchange can only take place if both parties agree to its terms. Steve Wynn does not own an option on Okada's stock, giving him the right to buy the shares for $1.9 billion. Steve Wynn cannot unilaterally retire Okada's major stake in the company with a 30+ % discount to the current market price, and not paying cash, but with an IOU that pays a pitiful 2% yield and matures in 10 years. This is an absolute joke. Is there anyone who believes Okada will not challenge this in court and win? Sorry, Steve Wynn, you are not king of the world. You are a legend only in your own mind, Everyone else thinks you are a complete мудак.
    Feb 28, 2012. 01:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment