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Steve 7

Steve 7
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  • Netflix Q3 2014 Preview: Expect Strong Subs Growth; Early Peek At International Growth [View article]
    Of course - at the risk of stating the obvious - one of the keys for NFLX - regardless of the earnings report - will be what the market considers NFLX's fair price to be during a medium-level overall market correction or a severe overall market correction - one of which is taking place right now. We do not know yet whether it is a fairly bad correction or a very bad correction but the huge violent price swings last week in the overall market would indicate the latter.

    From the beginning of March to end of April this year during a fairly bad correction in the Nasdaq, NFLX went from 450 to low-300's. This would indicate that if NFLX does not completely blow out earnings and/or has a bad report it has the potential to immediately sink to the mid to upper 300's. This might take place going to the idea that many players would want to get out quick since last major Nasdaq correction NFLX was in the low-300s and it would have the potential to get there quick given the bad overall market environment - an environment arguably worse than it was in March and April of this year.

    I plan to play an options strangle for earnings weighted to the put side since I think the risk/reward favors the downside. Even if NFLX had one of the greatest earnings reports in its history, no doubt investors would use the excuse to lock in gains. The rationale might be sort of like what happened during its report last year this time when investors sold in droves when they heard Icahn was getting out but this time around it would be selling in droves to get out before possibly a more serious market correction that might take down all stocks in a big way.

    On a bad report, NFLX might immediately sink 15 to 20 percent since it is widely expected to have a great report and so a bad report would definitely come as a surprise.

    So - for sake of fun predictions - I would say best case scenario after its report NFLX has the potential to tag low-500s and possibly stabilize (although probably it would fade given the overall market) and worse case scenario go to the mid-300's and then continue to go down for weeks from there.
    Oct 12, 2014. 08:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Squeeze, Rather Than Short, Of The Decade? [View article]
    ??? AAPL's P/E is currently less than 20 and it has been less than 20 every trading day for years.
    Aug 31, 2014. 02:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Squeeze, Rather Than Short, Of The Decade? [View article]
    Not that it really matters, but for what it is worth - "the AMZN short squeeze" as well as "the AAPL short squeeze" are two commonly referred to occurrences that more or less have never really taken place for years and years. At any given time for years and years, AMZN and AAPL have had less than 3 percent of their outstanding shares shorted, and arguably a good short squeeze cannot take place unless the equity has a minimum of 7 to 8 percent of its float shorted. So - point being - AMZN's buyers have been real for years and years and have not simply been "shorts getting squeezed."
    Aug 31, 2014. 02:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hints Of Bottoming For Twitter [View article]
    This is a good article and quite frankly - I don't even know if it is worth it to post a comment since it has been weeks since its publication and Seeking Alpha readers move so quickly from one article to the next.

    Seeing that TWTR continues to shake out a lot of sellers as it consolidates during a bull market, it does seem that a quick multi-day spike higher has a much greater chance of happening than a quick abrupt sell-off.

    On a side-note to the author - although this might be stating the obvious - usually the more StockTwits leans to one side, the greater the chance the opposite will take place. As StockTwits is made up of 90-something percent retail investors, the large majority are usually wrong. There is a joke among active traders that once StockTwits shows greater than 90 percent bullish on an equity, there is a 90 percent chance the equity will tank within the next few days. I guess this probably goes to the idea that the large majority of retail investors and traders are usually wrong otherwise the large majority of retail investors and traders would be millionaires.
    Jun 8, 2014. 02:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Sell In May And Go Away' Arrives Early In 2014 [View article]
    Well - we are on the save wavelength as far as Ralph Nader and lawsuits...I would agree he has not saved more American lives than any other person and lawsuits do not drive innovation but arguably stifle it.
    Apr 19, 2014. 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Sell In May And Go Away' Arrives Early In 2014 [View article]

    Wait a second here - what's going on? Isn't this response too long for your style? Does this response mean you have a certain type of personality? Since you are challenging another person's ideas in multiple-paragraph form, does this mean it is about time you need to give it up and move on?

    You make a big fuss about me responding in "multiple paragraph form" and "writing thesis statements" and here you are with a multiple paragraph response?

    Earlier in the week, Bret Jensen and I had a back and forth expressing equity ideas and economic thoughts on Brazil and so forth and the entire time you randomly threw out little jabs. Meanwhile, you expressed no ideas of your own and even refused to engage in my and Bret's normal conversation about Brazil. Instead, you threw one last jab out - "I moved on Steve suggest you do the same Goodbye" after the conversation had obviously already ended...

    Quite frankly, in the grand scheme of things - it's no big deal and you are obviously free to interact with people the way you want but I would challenge you to think about how it comes across...

    And - in case you have already moved on - Happy Easter : )

    Apr 19, 2014. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Sell In May And Go Away' Arrives Early In 2014 [View article]

    I am glad you brought your contributions to Real Money up because I was going to mention them as I do believe focusing on the "single equity of TSLA" would unfairly characterize you and by doing so I unfairly characterize myself as "just interested in nitpicking."

    In addition to having the best performing equity on the Best Ideas list right now, you provide excellent stock picks many times on Twitter and in the Columnist Conversations on Real Money and I enjoy your quick, to-the-point observations you often provide in the morning, mid-day, and/or after the market has closed for the day.

    As far as EWZ, I have a bunch of out-of-the money June calls...I got them in the low to mid-40's a few weeks ago and was fortunate enough to sell about 1/3 when EWZ recently popped to the upper-48's on Tuesday...

    I agree with you that there are serious fundamental issues that seem to weigh down on Brazil, but I believe that hot money and institutional money is generally "caught on the wrong side of the trade" right now when it comes to small caps (IWM) and emerging markets. I think most primary dealers that the Fed buys bonds from are looking months and months and years down the road and selling their U.S. small caps and momentum equities and rotating some of the monies into emerging markets. I think the rotation into emerging markets coupled with the idea that "hype will increase" as the most-watched sporting event in the world approaches has a good chance of giving EWZ the ability to break through short-term resistance and run into the lower to upper 50's or higher sometime during May or the first part of June...

    Would not be surprised to see EWZ run until the start of the World Cup on June 12 and then the World Cup might serve as a "Sell the News" event.
    Apr 13, 2014. 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Sell In May And Go Away' Arrives Early In 2014 [View article]
    There is no case you rest rather than a confusing case...if you don't care, then why did you engage me in the first place?
    Apr 13, 2014. 06:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Sell In May And Go Away' Arrives Early In 2014 [View article]

    The "spelling attack" you might be referring to had nothing to do with spelling - rather it had to do with someone not knowing a simple historical name but yet using that name (Vladimir Putin) as a key part of his was changed into an issue "related to spelling" somehow though when it was in fact a historical worries though...

    Also - don't worry about me being a borderline personality ( not that you really are worried); since I can type fairly quickly my "paragraphs and dissertations of writing" are put down quickly although you are right - they might be too much as very few people probably really care that much about my opinion any way...

    I am sorry that you do not believe Seeking Alpha is supposed to be a forum of a "give and take" of ideas. Usually a give and take of ideas - as it plays out - makes it seem like one person is trying to be right and the other wrong and vice versa...since obviously there is no "tone" involved in blog threads or response threads, people are free to create their own ideas as to whether someone is "freely exchanging ideas with someone" or "attacking someone."

    In this case - to use a psychological idea in honor of your psychological friend - you are able to make me into who you would like me to be as you are able to create your own image of me since you cannot hear the tone of my voice, see my body language, and so on...

    Meanwhile - someone else might respond to my comment above and say "good point about EWZ" because they are looking for a "stock idea in each comment" which is why arguably people are on Seeking Alpha to begin with - to discuss ideas related to markets and equities.
    Apr 13, 2014. 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Sell In May And Go Away' Arrives Early In 2014 [View article]
    First - I respectfully deserve the reply I got since my comment was a little critical and lacked a little tact..however - I did fairly well on the long side with TSLA throughout the last half of 2013 and the first 2 - 3 months of 2014 (I was one of those who used Kass as a contrarian indicator and played opportunities on the long side in TSLA in late Feb/early Mar while Kass was playing short...although I realize he is short again right now and this time he might do well).

    Second - as I am a subscriber to Real Money - I almost feel as if your reply to me here on Seeking Alpha is somewhat dishonest. For the record - and it can be pulled up on Real Money - you were short TSLA in May 2013 when TSLA was trading in the 80 dollar and 90 dollar range (and possibly other times - do not want to pull up stuff and start some unnecessary banter) and you were also short NFLX around the same time in May 2013. While of course you might say "that was a long time ago - I have not shorted recently" - your reply to me above in which you say "but don't short" makes it sound as if you have never taken a short position in equities and you have never shorted TSLA and this is not the case.

    I have seen you mention TSLA many times in the Real Money Columnist Conversation section the past 9 or 10 months or so as opposed to many other hundreds and hundreds of names that gained more than 100 percent (TSLA obviously gained 350 percent the past year) so I found it fascinating that you chose to mention it in a Seeking Alpha Piece. This is why I felt compelled to reply to your mention of the name in the above article and found it interesting you chose to mention TSLA instead of other names.

    Third - I respect the fact that - as you mentioned in a Real Money piece the end of February - momentum equities are "not your bag". I would also join your opinion (at least I figure it is probably your opinion) that now is not a time to be "fishing for a bottom" in momentum equities as money is clearly rotating out of the names. On the flip side, it was well worth it to be in and out of momentum names on the long side in 2013.

    Fourth - to provide something of value besides just going back and forth with you - Brazil names - specifically EWZ - look good right here and I have had a long position for a number of weeks in EWZ. With money rotating into emerging markets, and Brazil hosting the World Cup in June 2014 and the Olympics in 2016, EWZ looks good right now as it seems to have hit a bottom back in February and hot money seems to be looking to get on the ground floor of what might be a multi-year theme (emerging markets, specifically Brazil).
    Apr 13, 2014. 04:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung's Recent Foibles Should Be Good For Apple [View article]
    And - I should add - no I would not buy TSLA "right here, right now" given the obvious rotation out of high momentum equities and the current market correction...

    I would not buy AAPL since it has been dead money for a year-and-a-half as there was no interest in growth players to enter it in order to make quick, big money any time during the past year-and-a-half. Arguably many, many growth equities achieved gains in the hundreds of percents the past year-and-a-half, and even in the current correction - some growth equities still show many of those gains but it would be high risk to enter them now. Arguably there is little interest in AAPL right now or in the recent past as many value players look at it as a "growth stock gone bad but not really a value play" and many growth players see it as a "possible value play but there are so many better growth equities to get into when the market is strong."
    Apr 12, 2014. 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung's Recent Foibles Should Be Good For Apple [View article]
    Okay - well the link apparently does not work but anyone could obviously go to Yahoo! or some other site and plug in the year comparison of AAPL and TSLA.

    It shows the past year chart of AAPL versus TSLA - AAPL up about 20 percent, TSLA up about 350 percent.
    Apr 12, 2014. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung's Recent Foibles Should Be Good For Apple [View article];range=1y
    Apr 12, 2014. 07:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung's Recent Foibles Should Be Good For Apple [View article]
    Okay - let's be've been on the "I'm all for AAPL" fan boy bandwagon for a year-and-a-half now (maybe more) and part of the "can't stand TSLA" club for at least 11 months (maybe more)...

    Imagine if somewhere along the line in the past 6 months to 10 months you might have been flexible enough to change your stance and trade in your AAPL for TSLA : );range=1y
    Apr 12, 2014. 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Sell In May And Go Away' Arrives Early In 2014 [View article]
    It is interesting that you choose Tesla motors as the "example" of momentum equities that have declined during the past number of weeks when many, many other momentum equities have been hit much harder than TSLA - specifically, many equities in the China Internet, Solar, and Biotech spaces.

    Arguably, perhaps it goes to the idea you missed out on the great gains TSLA provided for longs throughout the last 8 - 9 months of 2013 and/or you kept trying to "time a good short" on TSLA at different times during 2013 and now it helps you feel good to mention it during a period of decline in 2014.

    While I definitely agree with your ideas as far as the Fed's QE programs related to how equities perform when the Fed curtails its programs - I wish you would have chosen a different title for your article. Since the idea of "Sell in May and go away arrives early in 2014" is already being alluded to ad nauseam in various blogs, on StockTwit feeds, Twitter feeds, and so on - the title goes to the idea that since the title is "not new, but already a redundant statement" - there will not really be any new ideas mentioned in the article.
    Apr 12, 2014. 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment