praha1

Gold Analysts Not Expecting Inflation This Year

I see you've spent a great deal of time studying gold - your thorough understanding is remarkable


On May 23 02:50 AM Dave Wrixon wrote:

> Gold will go up, but only against the dollar. The dollar will plummet
> as the inflation beast raises it head. Against other currencies I
> don't see Gold making sustained gains. Gold is hardly even keeping
> up with other commodities. Gold is not money. It hasn't been money
> for a long time and won't ever be money again. As commodities go,
> it is not exactly the most crucial. It goes into electronics, but
> my guess is that the amount required will decline rather than rise.
> As for jewelry, the trend seems to be toward White Gold which is
> where Gold is treated like a base metal and the electroplated or
> alternatives such as Platinum, Titanium and Palladium.

How to Profit from Market Manipulation

75% of investors wouldn't be in stocks anyway if a decent return could be earned in secure bonds. We're just forced to be in equities and assume risk we don't want because of a Federal Reserve that has been dropping interest rates continuously since 1983 (we can blame Volcker for that one). The end of that game has now arrived - interest rates cannot go any lower (oops sorry! - I forgot we have quantitative easing to drop interest rates even further at the right end of the curve so all of us will make absolutely nothing anywhere).

You have to be blind as a bat to not see the machinations of desperate government everywhere - in the equity market, the bond market and the commodity markets - to think otherwise is just being naive. The post 1971 financial system is simply dying. And the sooner it's gone the better for all of us. I have a right, thank you, to work and save for my retirement without submitting my savings to undue risk. I have a right to save my wealth and not have it confiscated by the govenment via incessant inflation. The system is going to die - If I could kick it and make it pass on sooner, I'd do it. You be a slave to the Fed and the Treasury department. I'll take freedom any day.

On Mar 26 02:34 PM Chris B wrote:

> 1) How sad. People who don't know how to calculate the fundamental
> value of a company are often awestruck at how the value of a company's
> equity can change by millions of dollars from day to day or hour
> to hour. They have no better source of information than past prices
> to inform themselves about the price they should be willing to pay
> or sell for. Yet, markets can't be efficient if we have swings of
> this magnitude! This leads some to technical analysis, and others
> to conspiracy theories! Only a handful of people learn how to figure
> out what "low" and "high" are and how to buy and sell at close to
> those points. Is education manipulation?
>
> 2) Rising price volatility is a sign of both bottoms and tops. In
> both situations, the number of buyers declines and transactional
> frequency becomes more erratic. In a top situation, fewer and fewer
> buyers are willing to take increased risk for less and less return
> which eventually turns the price once the sellers capitulate. In
> a bottom situation, many potential buyers are sitting outside of
> the market, waiting for it to go up a ways before they get in. Fast,
> sharp swings are the result of either situation.
>
> 3) I never heard complaints about manipulation when markets were
> going up. Yet hundreds of thousands of financial Neanderthals are
> now calling their 401(k) administrators demanding a return of their
> money, which they feel was taken away from them, obviously by nefarious
> conspirators. Ha!
>
> 4) Trading in and out of stocks is inherently a zero sum game. For
> party A to make a profit, party B must take a loss - or at least
> miss out on ownership of profits for a period of time. For manipulation
> to occur, party A would have to convince party B to pay too much
> for shares, while not themselves overpaying for shares from party
> C. I don't follow from this article how exactly such a scheme would
> be sustainable in a market with millions of well-informed participants.
> Perhaps the better question is this: How could short-term stock prices
> ever be predictable and not attract attention from the millions of
> participants looking for arbritage opportunities?

Bernanke Desperate, Fed Out of Ammo

Unfortunately modern economics has for all intents and purposes failed us in this crises. But ultimately what can you really expect from a 'social' science. Economics is not mathematics, it's not physics - it's closer to unproven theories of human behaviour. The economics of Bernanke and Greenspan will probably (not certainly) enter the dustbin of history.

Instead we should look to history for our answers for it is history that Mr. Bernanke is at war with. However history says it will win no matter how hard Bernanke and his henchmen try to change its course.

And what does history say? Basically that most of you including Bernanke will be wrong. That you have just gone through the greatest expansion of debt (oops I'm supposed to say credit aren't I) in history and you will now go through the greatest contraction of debt in history(after all insolvency removes debt, doesn't it). It's very simple, very unintellectual but very elegant - historically elegant. What's coming is not inflation, it is not hyperinflation. It's not even deflation. It will be a monstrous credit contraction called hyperdeflation. Mr. Bernanke should be worried - we all should be worried. We will not escape history.

Oh and BTW to conceptwizard's little tirade above - history says it will all all be blamed on the Jews! But of course - nothing really changes that much.

Short Squeeze in Silver - How to Profit

Mike L.

Backwardation in silver as seen daily on the London Bullion Market Association's website is not fiction. It's been going on now continuously since January (i.e. over 60 days). Exactly what this portends is anyone's guess but it does not suggest that a current silver surplus exists in any way. There are those (i.e. Antal Fekete) that have even suggested (back in 2006) that this portends the end of our financial system. While I may not accept that somewhat extreme view, I might suggest that the portent does not lean towards the optimistic for anything financial (including the silver price BTW which the TPTB will keep down even if not one ounce of silver is available for purchase)

Historical Data Disproves 'Trough P/E Multiple on Trough Earnings' Myth

so what will it take to turn your amusement into hysteria - when the DOW is down 60% from its peak - probably in a week or two? Or perhaps when it's down 70 or 80% from its peak (likely this Fall). Will you be amused then? History clearly states that's where it's going.

Oh and BTW, it also states that you'll eventually blame it all on the Jews! (the historical scapegoat) rather than on youself for making bad investment decisions.


On Mar 08 08:28 AM Free2Speak wrote:

> I am constantly amused at comparisons with the "Great Depression".
> The press, along with the administration, have been hyping this recession
> to no end. When you normalize the data for population growth, this
> recession has been no worse than the last two. Based on the volume
> of layoff news, the employment issue has peaked. Moreover, couple
> the extraordinarily high level of shorts and the fact that there
> is far more cash on the sidelines this time around than during previous
> recessions, we are poised for a strong rally. When will it come?
> Who knows! But, when it does, the shorts will be running for the
> hills and the sideline money will pour back in to take advantage
> of the run. We may be in for more negatives for a few months. But,
> this market is grossly oversold and the money is there to drive it
> back to higher levels.

Historical Data Disproves 'Trough P/E Multiple on Trough Earnings' Myth

No the analysis is completely incorrect! It should be painfully obvious to any fool by this point that what we just went through in 2008 was a 1929 event and what we're currently going through is a 1930 event. The history that should be studied is the history of depressions - not recessions. Stop kidding yourself or be prepared to lose all your money. No one should be in stocks. History clearly states you're in the midst of downleg 2 which will bring the Dow down to between 5 and 6000. This will be followed by downleg 3 (Fall 2009) which will last about 14 months and bring Dow down to 1500 - 3000. You might want to consider buying at that point but even then you'll need a very strong stomach.

Gold In Backwardation? Not So Fast ..

I'd like to know where you get your info. In the last major deflation - 1929 - 1936, gold went up from $20 to $36.

Gold moving down in a deflationary environment is a historical fallacy. At best you can say, it may go down. However history suggests otherwise.


On Nov 27 07:44 AM CLH wrote:

> Gold is rallying but is still headed down because the dollar is headed
> up after this correction.
>
> Gold does not go up during deflation. Inflation is dead.

Attention Gold Bugs: Hyperinflation or Deflation?

Gold in terms of the Canadian dollar:

Canadian Dollar -0.98% 11/14-11:50 1.2222 0.8182 917.02 +27.57 +3.10%

The above is just an example. If you're Canadian as I am, gold trading at $917.02 canadian aint that bad. Of course it hit an all time high of $1075 canadian only a month ago (October 9th).

For just about anyone else (other than Americans), gold has behaved not just wonderfully but as the single best asset to have during these times of turmoil. All paper assets have simply fallen off a cliff.

One can argue that having one's money in United States Dollars would have been even better. But the fact is the USD is fundamentally unsound and becoming more unsound by the minute.

So I'll take my chances with gold. If gold drops, then I know the dollar Canadian will simply drop with it and my purchasing power will be retained. The same goes for just about any currency world-wide.

UBS Lowers Gold Expectations Again

Retail gold and silver i.e. maple leaf one ounce gold and one ounce silver coins has dropped lately to about $900 U.S. for gold and $17.50 for silver (from $930 - 980 and $20 - $22) . This could be a portent of a major retail price drop in precious metals. Analyses should be done not only for current retail prices but also for the amount (quantity) offered for retail sale. My own subjective assessment is that more quantity is being offered and therefore retail prices could be moving down slightly.

Retail platinum has decreased from about $1550 U.S. to about $1400 as well. Retail palladium is still for the most part - not available.

Gold as an Investment? Think Again

I simply can no longer invest in equities - so I invest in gold. And, I will no longer invest in the capital markets until I am informed when central governments and their bankers are interfering either directly or indirectly, overtly or covertly in the capital markets in an open and timely manner. Until then my faith in capital markets is gone. And so I invest in precious metals. End of story. (And by the way, everyone has great points!)

How Much Are Goldman's Level 3 Assets Worth?

Sorry Mr. Pelican but: a) this writer does not currently own any financial stocks and is not shorting any financial stocks and b) it appears to me that you (Pelican) are fully agreeing with everything Mr. Kramer wrote but don't realize it yourself probably because of your own 'investment objectives'.

Your vituperation is 'juvenile' and you might want to be somewhat more 'reflective' of what you just wrote.

Gold: The Last Cheap Asset Class?

We are in a secular bull market for commodities. Additionally we are now 'well' into a secular bull market for commodites. It really doesn't matter which commodity you research. They are all in a bull market. Paper assets will 'likely' continue to decline for some time and tangible assets will 'likely' continue to appreciate (with or without the current salient macroeconomic stimulus). Tangible assets include gold.

How High Can Gold Go?

Using $850 is nonsenical since a price over $700 existed in 1981 for only 7 trading days. Somewhere between $250 and $400 makes far greater sense which would lead to an inflation adjusted price of $1200 - $2000 and probably at the lower end at that. Let's be rational please!

Reduce Your Chinese Holdings Before the National Party Congress Begins

Too many nasty comments. Dr. von Pfeil said reduce not liquidate. There is a big difference. If you've been investing in China, you've made lots. Rather than be excessively greedy, take some profits. It's actually a judicious suggestion and I thank him for it and also hope that he continues to monitor the situation.

Just How Big is the China Bubble?

Nasdaq to a very large degree was based on a lot of snuff. Back in 1999 and 2000 many Nasdaq companies were not earning profits but in fact were showing whopping losses. This is not the case with the current Chinese mainland market stocks. Revenues and profits are rising ever faster. There is at least 'some' reality behind the valuations. They're high and they're scary but profits are very real indeed.

China has two approaching failings however:

One they are now by definition losing billions due to a non-floating currency. If possible, the Americans will see to it that they lose billions more.

Second, there is little if any indication that political reformation has kept up with economic reformation.

The above two will eventually be disastrous for China. When is anyone's guess.