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phorque

phorque
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  • Nearly 80% of the individual stocks in the S&P 500 are overbought, according to Bespoke. Looking at a 5-year chart, the group notes this indicator is as mean-reverting as it gets. High levels of overbought stocks tend to move to low levels rather quickly. [View news story]
    Absolutely!
    Feb 4, 2013. 06:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nearly 80% of the individual stocks in the S&P 500 are overbought, according to Bespoke. Looking at a 5-year chart, the group notes this indicator is as mean-reverting as it gets. High levels of overbought stocks tend to move to low levels rather quickly. [View news story]
    There are still too many people writing and talking about why the markets may go down soon and sharply for it to actually happen.
    Jan 26, 2013. 12:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GMO has "given up" on the bond market, says Ben Inker, co-head of asset allocation at the $104B money manager. Other than Japan (and barely there), he's not a fan of equities either, and 40% of his funds are currently "dry powder." That stocks look cheap is predicated on today's profit margins being sustainable, and "we don't think they're sustainable anywhere." The last time he held more cash was late 2007. [View news story]
    "That stocks look cheap is predicated on today's profit margins being sustainable, and 'we don't think they're sustainable anywhere'.

    Let's see. I've just stumbled upon $250mm US and I want to invest the great proportion of it somewhere. In the words of the legendary Joe Granville, "What's a new subscriber to do?"

    Well, the fact is that if profit margins were cut in half overnight (and this global in scope mind you) current equity returns would still be a long term steal compared to current fixed asset returns. I wonder if this "author" checked into the fixed/variable swaps market lately?

    Of course, if Iran sends Hamas a dirty nuke to lob into Jerusalem from Gaza, and Israel turns Iran into glass in retaliation, all bets are off.
    Nov 27, 2012. 02:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's tough to find any market pros to go on the record, says a fired-up Gary Kaminsky, but what they're telling clients is the election was bad news for stocks. The bull market from the 2009 lows was about stocks priced for Armageddon meeting massive central bank stimulus, he says, but that dynamic is played out, leaving the markets to deal with the reality of a weak economy and questionable leadership in D.C. [View news story]
    You know what the Messiah says about that: "You didn't earn that."
    Nov 16, 2012. 12:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If "credit anticipates and equity confirms," what does the recent sharp widening of high-yield spreads - their ratio to investment grade spreads rising to a 3-year high - tell us about the future of the stock market? [View news story]
    It is pretty obvious that you don't really comprehend capitalism. I can just say that Government direction of distributing wealth and raising taxes to stimulate demand has never worked anywhere on Earth...ever...in the history of mankind.

    But keep on dreaming. That's really what the US needs most. Dreamers on the Government dole because they believe they are not being paid as much as they should. I presume you have forgotten what happened when Clinton joined with Newt, the House and the Senate to end welfare.... I'm sorry but unemployment dropped below 4% in a few months, the Government ran a surplus and led to a continuation of the Reagan years' economic growth leading to the longest economic expansion in the country's history.
    Nov 7, 2012. 04:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If "credit anticipates and equity confirms," what does the recent sharp widening of high-yield spreads - their ratio to investment grade spreads rising to a 3-year high - tell us about the future of the stock market? [View news story]
    To not accept the fact that Obama is a hardcore Socialist is to not comprehend the man or what is going on in the world.
    Oct 26, 2012. 09:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BAML's sell-side indicator - measuring the attitudes of sell-side strategists - continues to flash a major contrarian buy signal for stocks as the Fed's QE is unable to budge the record-high bearish tilt of the group. (previous[View news story]
    I'm curious...why is it that all the bulls on the equity markets claim that there is an enormous amount of bearish sentiment among one group or another? But all bears point to the excessive bullishness of some different group or another.

    Take a look at the COT for mini-spu's and mini-q's. Interesting isn't it?
    Oct 3, 2012. 05:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare for a "risk off" phase to commence soon, writes Bob "The Bear" Janjuah, as Ben Bernanke and the ECB and EU politicians deliver bupkus in coming weeks. Along with a correction in stocks will come a reversal in the weak dollar and weak Treasury price trends. [View news story]
    So at what price do you see this correction beginning? I'm thinking about 158.00 or so.
    Aug 23, 2012. 01:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Market fundamentals do not justify these extremely low levels of volatility," writes JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, attributing the recent lack of action to large option sales (as traders try to generate yield) pinning the S&P near 1400. Much of these positions are expiring today, which should "loosen the grip" on the VIX (VXX). (h/t tradefast) [View news story]
    It was actually up 4.24% but that was a good guess. NASD volatility was up 6.02%. Do you think you know something everyone else already knows?
    Aug 21, 2012. 01:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Doug Kass continues net short into this rising market, noting the S&P - back at its spring highs - could be making a triple top. Also of interest, the Transports (IYT) and Small-caps (IWM) have sharply diverged from SPY's solid performance over the past month. Then there's the VIX - it's rarely paid to buy stocks when it's been this low, he says. [View news story]
    There is only one time that I can remember Dougie not being short. On March 3rd, 2009 (I believe) he announced on CNBC that the market would bottom in "two or three days". The absolute low was March 6th. An incredible call in the face of what seemed to everyone to be the end of the world as we knew it.
    Aug 18, 2012. 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-time bond bull Robert Kessler takes a victory lap and says there's plenty of room for yields to fall further. That's bad news for stocks, he says, as low yields are forecasting lower profits. How to make money with these yields? Banks can conservatively lever 20-to-1, borrowing for nothing to make 15% returns. It's a casino, but the House (the Fed) is paying everybody to play and win.  [View news story]
    But to have massive unfunded liabilities is to be SHORT higher risk/reward assets and hence the stock market (among others) won't sell off significantly for a long, long time.
    Jun 3, 2012. 06:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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