Nom De Plum

Moore's Law for the Solar Market

I find it highly suspect that the author thinks that Applied Solar is connected to Applied Materials.

Why Netflix Is a Short

NFLX's competitve advantage was its low cost OFFLINE delivery model. This advantage disappears ONLINE. The key differentiation online will be user interface...so far MVSN and TIVO have a stronghold here.

Volt: An Employment Play

Ever heard of debt?....When a company liquidates it has to pay off creditors before shareholders. VOL definitely does not have $141M of net cash, it closer to $10M when you net out ($130M) of debt that needs to be repaid before a shareholder sees one cent. Also, book value consists of $100M of Goodwill and Intangibles, you don't get much for that in a liquidation scenario.

What You and I Can Learn from the Endowment Blowups

Risk premiums were overpriced in 2007 (too low) and underpriced in 2009 (too high). These funds should ABSOLUTELY increase risk exposure. The investment committees should look at 10-yr track records of delivering alpha and allocate more capital to those managers that should be able to identify undervalued securities (those with risk premiums that are too high).

Soros Fund Hikes Ownership Stake in Extreme Networks

It's pretty obvious their investment is EXTR is for the balance sheet and the lack of cash burn to maintian its balance sheet. Networking is a consolidating space right now as long-term growth expectations are coming down due to the maturity of the industry. The risk/reward is very favorable at these levels as soon as EXTR management wakes up and realizes that they don't have scale to compete anymore and the best option for shareholders is auction off the company to the highest bidder.

Rick's and Netflix: A Time to Buy, A Time to Short?

Been watching the "trends" at Rick's Cabaret...I'll bet you have been!

Callwave Management: Proposed Transaction Officially Makes Them Dirtbags

If they try to run the business by making investments than I think there is nothing wrong with their offer if investors are willing to sell them their shares. However, if they shut the business down and receive any residual value after taking the company private, than in my opinion it's a crime. The board and management have that option currently which could be a better deal. The one caveat is that you can't always assume that liquidation value is = negative enterprise value. There are all kinds of termination, severance, and legal expenses that are not reflected on the balance sheet in a liquidation scenario.

Potential Acquirers for Sun: Oracle or Cisco?

If you think ORCL would buy JAVA, then I have to question your credibility. Has ORCL ever in its multi-decade history purchased a low margin hardware vendor? It looks like you got caught playing the speculated arb spread in JAVA and hoping someone takes you out of your long position.

Semis' Downturn - Which Companies Will Survive, Part 1

Can't wait to see your Part II "The Survivors"...I need a few good shorts.

Millicom International Cellular: Value in Emerging Market Telco

Hey Paul, you might want to mention that all the information you just enlightened us with was published in Barron's less than two weeks ago! I commend you on your "copy and paste" skills.

Dell: Absurdly Cheap

So many holes...what should I try to plug?

1) As a passive investor you have zero control on how that cash is employed. DELL has decided to buy back Billions of its own stock in the face of no visibility into its own business and shareholders are down significantly on those investments.

2) DELL has shown an incredible willingness to pay exorbitant prices for unproven businesses without any forseeable payback. 10x Revenues for Equalogic in the face of a global recession is just plain desperation or incompetenence.

3) Last twelve months earnings are completely fictitious and are the final remnant of a global credit bubble that financed tons of consumable goods with very short lives. At least the tech bubble produced innovation through its creative destruction.

4) Where is the growth or innovation going to come from DELL. The whole premise behind a multiple is "expected" growth. I can buy virtually the same computer from DELL, Apple, Lenovo, Hewlett, etc. The innovation is what's inside and that's why Apple has a leg up on everybody right now in the computer space.

5) The same rudimentary argument could have been made about P/Es on Wang and Digital Equipment...how did those companies fare?

I rest my case......next!

Capital Structure and Some Cheap Stocks

Worthwhile piece.....a rarity on this site.

In the Year 2010: Will CDOs Still Exist?

Someone did notice it...Buffett. He said the derivatives market was a ticking time bomb.

Akamai's $95M Bet on Better Ad Targeting

Hey MalluFool - If you don't know how to spell "bought" you should not be investing your money in anything other than a savings account.

Hedge Funds Finding New Ways to Short

Hey alligator, Your synthetic short has a finite life whereas shorting a stock doesn't. If you think you're going to get the trade right in 3 or 6 months you're just gambling....investors think in years.