Pasobill

Friday Roundup: Commodities, Emerging Markets

UNG may be getting ready to finally have a rally. MACD is slowly showing a positive divergence in this oversold group. Watch for a bounce !

Astonishing rally off new bear-market lows leaves this blogger speechless. Dow +6.67% to 8,835.25. S&P +6.92% to 911.29. Nasdaq +6.5% to 1,596.70.

Why are you surprised? The market bounced off its October lows which became support after the Oct 13th rally. But don't get too excited it most likely will not last - just look at consumer discretionary and retail! The best support is probably near 7200.

Common Sense: My Solution to the Mortgage Crisis

The best solution to this problem is the replication of the Swedes who had a similar meltdown in the early 1990's. The article was in Saturday's -9/27/08 - New York Times - The Swedes answer to financial crisis. They actually ended up making a profit!

The Two-Ton Wall Street Conflict of Interest Few Dare To Talk About

Wall Street has always had a conflict of interest. They make money by being bullish and investing 100% of your money regardless of the economic outlook. Mutual funds think they are very conservative when they have 8% in cash. I have never understood why they don't raise large amounts of cash when it becomes so obvious to all that markets are not going to perform. They all brag that they do better than the S&P but who wants to lose 20% and be content. In my opinion one never loses when they raise cash and wait patiently for better days.

Market Outlook: Watch Out, the Signs Can Be Deceiving

The Fed has only bailed out Wall Street and the greedy errors of the large banks. By continually printing more and more money for these bailouts the Fed is setting us up for a 1970's type inflation with huge growth in interest rates and continued price inflation in the commodities that the average American cannot do without - food and energy. It is hard to see where the Fed's actions are going to help the people on Main street! And Michael is absolutely right - market bottoms do not happen in a day. the technical damage to this market is so bad it will take a long time to repair. In the immediate past we have been spoiled by quick turnarounds but history shows that real bear markets can last years not months.

Market Bears Take a Breather

Many of the young "hotshots" on Wall Street were toddlers in the late sixties and 70's when the economy suffered through Stagflation. The present situation is a carbon copy of the 70's when inflation started to run out of control and yields soared while the economy faltered. Isn't it interesting that after each drop in the Fed rate the markets continued to fall. The economy runs in regular cycles and the Fed can do little to stem the tide!

Dirty Little Secret: Fed Cuts Don't Really Matter

It's about time that someone has come out as you have and realizes that FED cuts are not bullish in the long run. The fact that the cuts pulverize our dollar is bad enough but the FED knows the economy is in trouble and lowers rates to try and reduce the effect of the slowdown. The best bull markets occur while rates increase !

Could Higher Oil Prices Force a Reassessment of Core Infllation?

Oil inflation is just one of the two sectors that have soaring inflation and both of these are ex the measurement of "core inflation". Food prices are out of sight and are hurting the average family at least as much as paying more at the pump. It would be a devestating blow to the economy if the Fed lowered rates by any more than a quarter percent - why even change the rate ??