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  • Who Wins After The Snapback Rally? [View article]
    Interesting how Alibaba marked the exact top
    Oct 19 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Stock Market Finally Ready To Fall? [View article]
    " If anyone had that person would be far, far richer and more famous than Omaha Buffett, Microsoft Gates, & Mexico Slim — and no one is."

    it depends on your definition of market timing. all systems have flaws and im well aware of the flaws in salmo truttas system that preclude one from becoming reliably rich.
    personally i am trading a dip buying system with a perfect 100% win rate, yet i am not a millionaire. thats because the system requires panic dips, and no signals appeared in 2013. the same way, salmo trutta can only make money when the fed makes a monetary error, yet provides flawlesss data that can be used for the analysis and does not discontinue data series, iknow both have happened.

    what is the greatest investor? buffett? he did not even beat the index, the snp yes, but not the smallcap value index, and he was mostly invested in low pe smallcaps. if you want to be a better investor than buffett,just buy the right index, or better yet just buy BRK and hope buffett doesnt die and creates a new 9/11 that way.
    Oct 4 06:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirees, Don't Count On Stocks To Deliver From Here [View article]
    Shiller is not useless. It has been useless to the US-centric investor and provided zero trades, but if you expand reach to overseas (meb fabers research) you can find good opportunities. I rember when the shiller p/e of greece was 2 then it returned 100% in one year.
    Oct 4 06:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China On The Home Stretch [View article]
    lets go all in -texas holdem style
    Sep 27 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not Even Wrong: Why Data-Mined Market Predictions Are Worse Than Useless [View article]
    you are missing the takeaway of detrick research. it doesnt mean buy because boring is bullishbut the better takeaway is that low volatile is not nesesarily bearish like zerohedge likes to claim
    Sep 20 07:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Significant Warning Signs [View article]
    why salmo trutta? the numbers are still negative?

    1-mrt-14 0,14 0,31
    1-apr-14 0,15 0,33
    1-mei-14 0,15 0,39
    1-jun-14 0,13 0,34
    1-jul-14 0,17 0,34
    1-aug-14 0,14 0,31
    1-sep-14 0,11 0,29
    1-okt-14 0,03 0,25
    1-nov-14 0,03 0,24
    1-dec-14 0,05 0,18
    1-jan-15 0,03 0,19
    1-feb-15 0,02 0,22
    1-mrt-15 0,02 0,19
    1-apr-15 -0,01 0,17
    1-mei-15 -0,03 0,19
    Sep 20 07:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Map Allocates To Long Bond [View article]
    Why don't you use leverage? It makes investing alot more fun. You can use SSO/UPRO and short TBT.
    Jul 15 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellen The Dove Vs. Emerging Markets' Fatal Flaw [View article]

    Looks like Hong Kong funds are moving into China because its much cheaper than Hong Kong.
    Jul 10 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The June Employment Data [View article]
    As long as the Fed uses the same models, yes. The yield curve is just the footprint of the model the Fed uses. The model is not perfect so it overshoots and causes recessions and bubbles.
    Jul 5 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The June Employment Data [View article]
    We dont have a negative yield curve yet so no recession is ever possible.
    Jul 5 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Correction, Interrupted [View article]
    Shiller P/E is a poor shorting tool. It was I believe it was 25 with S&P750 in 1996. If you shorted then, you experienced a unleveraged drawdown of -100%. You would have lost all your money shorting the internet bubble.

    I think it makes sense. Shiller P/E is 10 years. In 1996 S&P 750. In 2008 700.
    But in the mean time 2 bull markets and two bear markets. Lots of money to be made. S&P to 3000 in 2020. S&P 1700 in 2025. Then shiller P/E is still true. But you missed a major rally and a major drop.

    Shiller P/E ignores the volatility. Unfortunately even an unleveraged short position cannot ignore possible volatility. Short at your own risk.
    You might get lucky with the current sell in may anyway. But thats it. Just Luck.

    At least with longs, you can ride out the 10-year pain. So dont use SHiller p/e to short.

    IF this is a bubble. Why are you so eager to short at 25, because the last major bubble shiller p/e went to 40+. Only the housing bubble topped earlier.
    Jun 3 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Flavor Of QE? [View article]
    Why do you mention NB's and CB's but not the Shadow Banking System (SB's)?
    May 16 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Perils Of Pauline And The Power Of Monetary Policy [View article]
    Did you ever had any good velocity figure? It is hard for me to imagine the fed doesn't provide one. Don't they have M2 or M3?
    Apr 22 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Algorithm Indicates Citigroup Will Be A Buying Opportunity, But Not Yet [View article]
    Is this just sell in may and come back in november. Your SPX forecast and AKS forecast had the same thing. 1 year bullish 3-6 month bearish. Is it just derivative of Sell in May algo?
    Apr 16 08:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Graphic - Case Study: San Jose Hiked Minimum Wage [View article]
    There are many people who are not worth their market return. Children with rare genetic diseases with treatements costing millions. Will they ever paytheir millions back? Probably not.

    Old Cancer Patients. If somebody is older than 65 why try to cure their cancer? They wont work anymore, they are useless. Their market return is very negative.
    Apr 16 08:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment