hardmanb

Will Consumers Ever Revert to Pre-Recession Spending Levels?

Economists must realize that there will not be any recovery (to the previous consumer-spending-depe... because it was fueled by credit, unsustainable spending, and unrestrained materialism.

We can't ever go back to the previous economy because it was 71% driven by consumer spending, supported by unwise and ridiculously loose credit card spending, constant refinancing of equity in homes, and bubble-expectations of perpetual rises in home values.

That is over. People know now that home values also drop. Banks, paying off 10%+ credit card defaults, will never to back to the prolific credit card practices of the past. The real estate crash has put an end to no-doc, nothing down, option-pay mortages; teaser-reset rates, and balloon notes for normal folks. People will not be able to maintain the former rate of GDP support of consumer spending, even if they want to. We are going back to good credit records and 20% down to by that house. People will have to take years to save up that down payment.

People (including the children) have personally and vicariously experienced the incredible pain of defaults, foreclosures, homelessness, collapse of investment and retirement accounts, permanent loss of jobs and careers. The lessons are being learned and the lessons will be generational.

Spending less is inevitable. In addition, thrift and savings are rising and will continue. Get used to it, and adjust.

Economic Crisis: Good Luck Europe, You'll Need It

The "pre-bubbles" US had a (service-economy) GDP of $7.4 Trillion consisting of 71% consumer spending.

The service economy, understandably is contracting in free-fall. The bottom has fallen out of consumer spending with the Housing equity collapse; housing lending collapse; credit card consumer credit collapse; and catastrophic rise in unemployment.

Europe and Asia's economies and budgets were balance on exports to the US and consumption (however unwise) of US citizens.

This was unsustainable, is increasingly ceasing, and US consumers will reduce consumption and borrowing. After the shocks of our "great recession" Americans for decades are and will be switching from consumption to savings...a generational change in psychology and habits.

Those who depended on American consumption to balance their budgets are in for big trouble, for a long time.

The U.S. Auto Bailout: Bridge to Bankruptcy, or Road to Salvation?

The problem is not this $25 Billion bailout for the Automakers and unions...but the next one, and the next.

Give them this one-time bailout, with the firm, written understanding that if they can't then make it...they will go straight to Chapter 11.

Housing Crisis Likely to Wipe Out Two Decades of Family-Earned Wealth

Just keep voting for the Democratic Party liberals who are blocking drilling and development of wind/coal and nuclear power. They and the eco-freaks think gas should go up to $8.00 per gallon.

www.marketwatch.com/Ne...

Apple Plays the Conservative Card Despite Record Quarter

Don't have a lot to say...Chris pretty much said it all.

But, I think Apple has something big up its sleeve...

Apple's iPhone 3G: Who Needs Carrier Subsidies?

..." since AT&T is raising its unlimited data service subscription price by $10 per month..."

No, they are not. The AT&T unlimited data service subscription has always been $30 per month for ALL their 3G data plans.

Now that the new iPhone uses 3G, they just pay the same 3G data plan price as all other 3G phones. Other carriers charge the same or similar prices.

Apple's iPhone: Home Court Advantage

Apple has carefully seeded multiple innovative consumer products into multiple growing markets, backed by interface, software, operating system, retail, interactivity, customer service...all under Apple's control. The Apple "experience" cannot be matched by traditional manufacturers, software applications, operating systems, wholesale and retail systems...all vying for each's competitive advantage, business plan and control against the others...and at the same time delivering a harmonious and holiistic overall product experience.

Those familiar with the US experience don't realize the implications that the iPhone is an entirely new platform.

The majority of people in the world who use email, web access and other computer functions, including those in third world countries and emerging industrial countries use mobile devices...not laptops or desktops for their web access. The device that does it best has an enormous global advantage.

The WSJ Is Wrong on the Housing Crisis

Interesting analysis by Samora, because it factors in "other" economic and demographic trends in addition to the simplistic "pricing" analyses that are prevalent. Also, it contrasts to the fraudulent and misleading figures of the NRA (National Realtors Association) that reports "sales" on the signing of "contracts", and contract failures have escalated to 40% and sometimes more.

Various factors, such as declining consumer purchasing power; auto financing crisis/defaults; credit card defaults; rising gas prices; declining traditional retirement programs; lack of boomer financial preparation for retirement; and purchasers "waiting" for bigger bargains and waiting for the price decreases to bottom...all also factor in as delaying the recovery of the existing houses on the market.

Inside the Apple/PA Semi Deal: Micro and Macro Perspectives

Interesting article, with well reasoned and researched speculation.

Apple Facing Serious Downside Risk - Morgan Keegan

"and what happens if Steve Jobs retires?'

He's not the type to retire, and he is having more fun, and breaking down more fences than ever before. Besides, he has developed and trained a unique culture, innovative approach and marketing expertise into Apple's employees and leaders. Apple would probably keep doing things "Steve's way" for at least ten years.

Goldman Says Apple Trimmed iPhone Plans, But Keeps Buy

Did you ever get the feeling that some Stock Analysts and investors are flinging rumors, criticisms and FUD...to promote stock fluctuations in order to play their profits on movements?

Maybe I'm naive, but the market seems to be fed, not by fundamentals or any form of value analysis...but by wild speculation and greed.

Does Apple's iPhone Live Up to Its Hype?

From the introduction, there has been merciless (desperate?) criticism of the iPhone, with each feature compared to some specific feature on some other specific smartphone. The existing smartphones may be fine for corporate technically sophisticated users, IM'ing and typing push emails on their blackberries...but it is not what the "rest of us" want.

We (the ordinary consumers) want easy-to-learn, easy-to-use, quick and easy synchronization, stable, secure, fast integration of features, and a pleasant experience...which is typified by the iPhone. We want an experience that is pleasing. The "killer app" is that the full-featured operating system and browser, which is already producing a steady stream of improvements, eliminating weaknesses criticisms almost as fast as they can be found.

As for the future and in terms of "product success", remember that there are a lot more of "us" consumers, than there are IT professionals. Remember the iPod?