Turnipseed

Winter's Coming for the Boomers: Part 2

Nope, not a blatant lie. Here's the sequence for oil/gas production. Identify target - acquire target (usually by leasing) - collect and analysis additional geophysical data - select drill site - spud and complete well - build pipeline to connect to existing infrastructure. Of course there is all sorts of permitting that has to be approved along the way. Ten years is a pretty good general estimate.


On Jul 13 01:03 PM Socialism cannot compete! wrote:

> Blatant lie. Last year, during the $140/barrel oil "pricing crisis",
> Transocean's CEO testified to Congress that most new deepwater sites
> could begin production within 1-2 years, with the hardest-to-reach
> at a max of 5 years. Quit perpetuating the lies about time-to-production
> for deep-water drilling!!

Barron's: Best Dividend Plays for 2009

Historically, dividends have been more important than capital gains for portfolio appreciation. It seems likely it will take several years (5+?) to recover from this current mess, so we're not likely to see prolong periods of 10%+ growth in market indices. That means we'll need to be good at picking stocks, and/or rely more on dividends. Just a thougt, I doubt my crystal ball is clearer than anyone elses.

Coeur d'Alene Mines: Bullish on Silver and Its Liquidity Is Fine

The major problem with CDE is the management. Do some research before investing.

Dryships - Reality Strikes Back

Fact- DRYS CEO runs company like personal fiefdom.
Fact- DRYS is highly leveraged.
Fact- Currently excess capacity until ?
Fact- Shipping rates have been extremely volatile in last few years.
Fact- Most DRYS shareholders have lost their shirt in last year.
Opinion- This looks like a very high risk/high reward investment.
Opinion- Somebody(s) with cash is going to make a killing in shipping industry by picking up cheap ships from backrupt carriers. And with low ship cost, they will be the lowest cost shipper. So even if DRYS survives, it may be at a competitive disadvantage.

Allied Irish: Too Good to Be True?

AIB gets about 50% of revenue abroad, mostly in UK, Poland, and US. Loan/value ratios run 60-65%, so there is some protection on downside. Still a risky investment in these times.

Energy Secretary Chu Wimps Out Again

It's too bad many people transfer their dislike of Al Gore to AGW. Al Gore is a politician and his opinions have political motivations. AGW is a scienticfic theory - if you judge it and criticize it because of it's political implications, you're missing the point. Take the time to understand the science behind it. Even if you still disagree, at least you'll understand that AGW is not a hoax or a socialistic plot.

Global Warming: Investment Implications

Although I have a strong scientific background and am fairly well read on global warming, I know I don't know enough to critically appraise the complicated details of AGW. Neither does Al Gore, Michael Crichton, Rush Limbaugh, President Obama , or virtually all the commentators here. If you think the author’s "straw men" arguments are balanced, I suggest you do more research on the issue. The people who do know are research climatologists, and they are growing increasingly alarmed.

Whither Iraqi Oil?

When I reviewed the geology of Iraq about 15 years ago, it obviously had hugh petroleum exploration potential. Furthermore, these resources likely can be developed and exploited at far lower costs than say offshore Brazil or the Canadian tar sands. All Iraq needs to do is attract capital, and as others have said, that's not going to happen in a big way until political and legal matters are resolved.

Is Natural Gas About to Break Higher?

The combustion of natural gas emits almost 30 percent less carbon dioxide than oil, and just under 45 percent less carbon dioxide than coal per unit of energy (source- naturalgas.org), so it is one of the quickest and cheapest ways to reduce GHG's. This will increase natural gas consumption over the next couple of decades. Short term - I don't know, but longterm outlook for producers and pipelines is very favorable.

Three Noteworthy Sectors: Gold, Food and Healthcare

I hate to throw water on gold, but Casey Research reported today that India imported no gold in Jan. Likewise, many peple are cashing in jewelry, coins, etc, creating at least temporarily an oversupply of gold. I do hold stock in gold miners because I believe gold is in an upward trend. However, with the vast amount of gold in private hands, there are built in constraints on rapid upward price movement. In fact, if this recession/depression continues to worsen, gold prices may be negatively affected by those forced to liquidate their gold postions.

Porter Stansberry: Sea Change in U.S. Natural Gas Industry

Much of the new "discoveries" of natural gas are in shales. These have been known for years but were uneconomic until improvements in horizontal drilling. Horizontal shale wells are short lived, with production falling as much as 50% in the first year, so to maintain production levels, new wells have to be brought in all the time. And since horizontal wells are much more expensive than conventional wells, they are probably uneconomic at todays low NG prices. Stansberry is correct when he asserts not many wells will be shut in - the major expense is upfront. But as drilling falls off in the shale basins, production will fall more rapidly than in other types of gas fields, and because more of our NG supply comes from shale basins than in the past, a balance between supply and demand might be achieved more quickly than Stansberry suggests.

By the way, I think Stansberry is confusing shale NG and coal bed NG. Not good for his credibility.

Before investing in CPN, investigate its bankruptcy and present debt obligations. A great company may not be a great investment.

Energy Infrastructure MLPs: Among the Very Best High Dividend Stocks

You should note there are tax considerations even in IRAs. Also, there are a wide variety of MLPs including some that are oil/gas producers.

Peak Oil: A Reality or a Lie?

EROEI is a major factor, not because of economics, but because energy consumed for production is starting to approach energy produced. Recall the corn ethanol fiasco. This will eventually limit tar sands and may keep oil shales from ever becoming feasible.

On Aug 28 03:40 AM perceptions_now wrote:


> It should also be noted, that the EROEI (Energy Return On Energy
> Invested), which was up around 100/1, is said to have slipped to
> 11/1 in 2000 and is continuing to head lower, thus lessening the
> profit motive to increase Supply.

The Middle Ground with Global Warming

NOAA doesn't agree the earth is cooling.
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/c...

Arctic sea ice extent second smallest ever in 2008.
nsidc.org/pubs/notes/6...

Antarctic sea ice is expanding, but voume of ice sheet may be contracting - more data needed.
www.skepticalscience.c...

So the 10 hottest years have occurred between 1997 and 2008 - sound like a cooling trend?

On Aug 20 05:27 PM concrete guy wrote:

> Too may people today have signed off on the notion of AGW. The science
> is far from settled, and in fact, NOAA's own data for years 2000
> through 2008 show average atmospheric and oceanic temperatures decreasing.
> In 2008 arctic sea ice extent returned to 1979 levels, and antarctic
> ice levels reaches a record. In light of this well-documented decade-long
> global cooling trend, I'm hoping it won't be long before the majority
> of Americans look back in amazement at how foolish the contrived
> AGW scare really was.

6 Ways to Play Clean Energy

I'm no expert on geothermal, but there are 2 problems not mentioned. First, you need a steep geothermal gradient - ie, rock temperature increases rapidly with depth. That's why Iceland has abundant geothermal power. There are very few places in the world with steep geothermal gradients and also near inhabitated areas. The projects in NV, UT and elsewhere don't have as steep a gradient as found in Iceland. Next, dissolved minerals in hot water can be a major problem. Rapid cooling of superheated water will cause precipitationof minerals, plugging up pipes etc.