Georg Vrba is a professional engineer who has been a consulting engineer for many years. In his opinion, mathematical models provide better guidance to market direction than financial "experts." He has developed financial models for the stock market, the bond market, yield curve, gold, silver and recession prediction, most of which are updated weekly at http://imarketsignals.com/.
Armando Alizo is a senior technology manager with over 20 years experience in the development of financial and trading systems.
Mr. Alizo has a BA in Physics from Cornell University and an MBA from Nova-Southeastern University.
Areas of expertise include: Development, testing, and implementation of trading and investment strategies. Technology and project management. Software development and computer operations.
Developer of the Alizo Market Indicator (AMI). The AMI was developed in 2008-2009 to serve as a timing tool for Large Cap US stocks. Full details are available via the following link: www.tinyurl.com/aalizo
Taylor Dart is a top contributor on Seeking Alpha in both the long ideas and basic materials section of the website. He has over 10 years of experience in active investing and currently holds a top #100 ranking on TipRanks.com for investment performance out of over 5,200 financial bloggers. Taylor has over 8 years of active experience investing in individual stocks with a compound annual growth rate of 15 percent per year. His main focus is on undervalued growth stocks outperforming the market and their peers. In addition he use extensive technical analysis to capture maximum upside price action, as his belief is that timing is everything. Taylor scans upwards of 1200 stocks nightly on the U.S. and Canadian markets to identify the best fundamental opportunities with the most timely technical setups. He is a huge proponent of trend following and the "Turtles" who enjoyed compound annual growth rates of over 80 percent per year.
"If there is a sudden range expansion in a market that has been trading narrowly, human nature is to try and fade that price move. When you get a range expansion, the market is sending you a very loud, clear signal that the market is getting ready to move in the direction of that expansion.” - Paul Tudor Jones
"While a fundamental analyst may be able to properly evaluate the economics underlying a stock, I do not believe they can predict how the masses will process this same information. Ultimately, it is the dollar-weighted collective opinion of all market participants that determines whether a stock goes up or down. This consensus is revealed by analyzing price."
Mark Abraham , Quantitative Capital Management, L.P.
"Profit targets imply a trader can predict the future. Profit targets are profit-limiting. Trend followers stay in the moment of now, avoid prognostication, and let markets run as far as they go. "
Thomas Vician, Jr.
"We can’t always take advantage of a particular period. But in an uncertain world, perhaps the investment philosophy that makes the most sense, if you study the implications carefully, is trend following. Trend following consists of buying high and selling low. For 19 years we have consistently bought high and sold low. If trends were not the underlying nature of markets, our type of trading would have very quickly put us out of business. It wouldn’t take 19 years or even 19 months of buying high and selling low ALL of the time to bankrupt you. But trends are an integral, underlying reality in life. How can someone buy high and sell low and be successful for two decades unless the underlying nature of markets is to trend? On the other hand, I’ve seen year-after-year, brilliant men buying low and selling high for a while successfully and then going broke because they thought they understood why a certain investment instrument had to perform in accordance with their personal logic. "
John W. Henry
Full-time Investor, and frequent speculator.
Focus on US Stocks and Real Estate.
Degree in Economics and Finance.
Over 35 years of economic analysis and active investing experience. Retired Financial Services CEO (company had $2 Billion in financial assets).
Macroeconomic conditions and cycle progression are the foundation of my investment strategy. I evaluate the macro trend, and then select investments that will benefit from that trend, shifting the mix as the cycle progresses. Earnings growth is the sustainable fuel for investment gains. So, I look to position my portfolio accordingly.
I stay fully invested during the rising tide of a growing economy. I use leverage until the expansion shows signs of constraints and exhaustion. Rising input costs (wages, materials, energy, interest rates) eventually squeeze corporate profits, making growth less feasible. When I see evidence of a coming recession combined with weakness in the market, I exit my equity positions, reduce my real estate holdings, and shift to the safety of cash and treasury bonds. After the market slides deeply, and after the panic reaches headline proportions, I begin to reinvest as I anticipate or see evidence of the market bottom. I successfully avoided the 2001-2002 and the 2008 bear markets, while being fully invested for the bull markets around those declines.
In prior cycles I purchased individual stocks. However, during this bull market I am making heavy use of ETFs (including Sector ETFs). This is much less work, but results in more average returns. I do purchase some individual company stocks when I think the company will perform better than the average in its industry sector. I do not sell short, and rarely use options.
My portfolio is about half market tracking. I also use sector rotation, selected specific companies, modest margin debt, and 3x leveraged ETFs, within the rising cycle trend to magnify and outperform the average trend. I also adjust the size of my market exposure based on market conditions, and historic patterns.
My gross investment asset allocation target is roughly 70% stock, and 30% real estate (rentals). Current Stock Portfolio Mix (Sep 2016): 47% Broad Market Tracking (VTI, SPY, RSP, QQQ, VB...),17% Homebuilders and related, 15% Consumer Discretionary (VCR), 08% Industrials (XLI), 05% Berkshire Hathaway, 08% all other. Margin Debt is about 4% of portfolio value. Total Market Leverage is 1.05x (down from 1.34x in 2014). No bonds, and cash is less than 2% of gross assets. Real Estate is Residential Rentals, mostly near the beach (average LTV is about 40%).
Over the past 35+ years of active investing in stocks and real estate, my investment returns have been significantly above the average return of the S&P 500 (largely due to market timing and leverage). Since October 2007, my Stock portfolio average total return has been about 15% per year, compounded. My Real Estate portfolio average total return has been about 8% per year for the same period. The S&P 500 average total return has been about 6% per year during the same period.
I worked my way through school (as a cook, retail clerk, factory worker, computer support technician, waiter, counselor, corrections officer, and campus police) and earned economics & accounting degrees, plus some "certified nerd" credentials. (I was possibly the only accountant in history who was ever on a CERT/tactical team.) Became a fiscal analyst and college bursar; managed cash, card processing, receivables, and collections. Semi-retired young and became a landlord... . . .
Governments are in a race to devalue their currencies. A defense is to own the tangible things that people in any country must have: natural resources & real estate.
Individual Investor. Here to brainstorm ideas with like minded individuals and learn from experienced and accomplished thinkers & traders.
Specific interest are in Tactical Asset Allocation methods which produce higher returns at lower risk than the overall market over extended period of time. In other words high Sharpe Ratio strategies are what I develop and test as well as read about.
I am an individual investor who is relatively new to the world of investing. Through the strategies and findings that I've learned from numerous sources and with a little bit of luck, my portfolio averaged 24.0% annual return for the last 3 years vs. 11.7% for S&P 500.
My goal is twofold: 1) share what I have learned through practicing stock investing, reading and researching, and 2) learn from Seeking Alpha community through the feedback and suggestions of the readers. I trust that the feedback and suggestions from Seeking Alpha community will help improve the odds of continued strong investment performance.
I hold an undergraduate degree in business administration with focus on financial institutions from Westminster University and an MBA from Yale University School of Management. I'm also a CFA charterholder, FRM charterholder, and an author of an eBook on personal finance.
I run two services, Free CoT Data and Simple Stock Model. Free CoT Data reveals how different types of traders are positioned in the futures markets. Simple Stock Model aggregates financial and economic data so that investors can easily form a comprehensive data-based outlook on the S&P.
Scott Grannis was Chief Economist from 1989 to 2007 at Western Asset Management Company, a Pasadena-based manager of fixed-income funds for institutional investors around the globe. He was a member of Western's Investment Strategy Committee, was responsible for developing the firm's domestic and international outlook, and provided consultation and advice on investment and asset allocation strategies to CFOs, Treasurers, and pension fund managers. He specialized in analysis of Federal Reserve policy and interest rate forecasting, and spearheaded the firm's research into Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). Prior to joining Western Asset, he was Senior Economist at the Claremont Economics Institute, an economic forecasting and consulting service headed by John Rutledge, from 1980 to 1986. From 1986 to 1989, he was Principal at Leland O'Brien Rubinstein Associates, a financial services firm that specialized in sophisticated hedging strategies for institutional investors.
Visit his blog: Calafia Beach Pundit (http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/)
Michael Harris is a trader, book author, software program developer and blogger. He started developing advanced pattern recognition software for the benefit of position and swing traders in the late 1990s. In years past, Michael has also done work for a number of different financial firms, where he developed a bond portfolio optimization program and trading systems for commodities and stocks. Michael is also a well-known author. His first book “Short-Term Trading with Price Patterns” was published in 1999. His other two books “Stock Trading Techniques with Price Patterns” and “Profitability and Systematic Trading” were published in 2000 and 2008, respectively. His most recent book is "Fooled By Technical Analysis". Michael holds a Masters degree in Operations Research, with emphasis in forecasting and financial engineering and another Masters degree in Mechanical Engineering. Website: www.priceactionlab.com
I was a software engineer for a little over 21 years before I decided to call it quits to the corporate world when I was 45 years old (in 2014). I have always dreamed of retiring early, but I didn't plan to retire until I was 50 years old. When I realized my investment portfolio could generate the income I needed to free my life from the shackles of the corporate world, I quit my job and never looked back.
I did not win the lottery, inherited large sums of money, nor got lots of stock options from a company that I worked at that IPO'ed. It was all very hard-earned. I lived below my means and saved a substantial percentage of my take-home pay ever since the third year of my professional life.
I've been a lurker on SeekingAlpha for years, and finally decided to become a contributor to document my journey as an early retiree.
It's hard to categorize me as an investor. Although I'm mostly "dividend growth" minded, I also dabble in growth, deep value, speculation, as well as a little hedging now and then with options.
CTO, FLHP Trading Systems, LLC
Aerospace and Computational Engineer with 28 years experience in Engineering and Scientific Modeling and Programming including large scale vector and parallel processing. Work includes Finite Element Modeling in Structural Analysis, Magnetic Modeling, and Fluid Dynamics codes primarily for the Aerospace community. 30+ years of stock market and mutual fund investing, 8+ years of ETF and options trading.
Brian Dightman founded Dightman Capital, an independent Registered Investment Advisor firm in 2007, just in time to deploy defensive strategies prior to the 2008 credit crisis. He has more than 10 years of industry experience and currently manages Global Growth Strategies which have been GIPS® performance verified. He has published articles in several leading industry publications and writes commentary for Seeking Alpha.
Brian also acts as an educator and currently leads a Meetup Group designed to help individual investors learn the William O’Neil CAN SLIM® stock investing system.
Brian is committed to identifying successful investing strategies and developing systems that allow them to be deployed at Dightman Capital. In particular, he is interested in exploiting those areas of asset markets that exhibit inefficiencies. His primary goal is the successful compounding of principle by avoiding sustained market declines; generating income and capital growth.
Please contact the firm if you would like to receive a GIPS® verified performance presentation.
Retired English prof & scuba diver (instructor certification) living on investment income, pension and Soc Sec. Now entering my geezer years and every day is like Christmas. More of an income/dividend investor, especially with closed end funds and preferreds, but pay intense attention to moving averages on etfs. On the fringes I speculate with options from time to time -- but I'd have more money today if I'd never heard the words "calls and puts". Political beliefs tend to be center-right, but growing weary of it all. Active member of the Morningstar discussion groups. Happily married to my beautiful, mail-order Latina bride; just celebrated our 12th anniversary. Grown daughter from first marriage happily got a good job at last and is now off dad's payroll .... almost. Now living the best years of my life. Other than travel and veterinary bills, I try (not very successfully) to live simply. The greatest luxuries are leisure to read and no financial worries. The greatest lament: slow physical deterioration and losing friends as they drift away. Discussions with intelligent people on the internet are a great help.
Favorite recent books: Tom Wolfe's A MAN IN FULL. Steven Gains' PHILISTINES AT THE HEDGEROW, MY SOUTHERN JOURNEY by Rick Bragg. Lastly I'll add SECONDHAND TIME by Svetlana Alexievich, tragic oral histories from the last of the soviet people.
(The photo is of me outside a Paris cafe, watching the nightlife pass me by.)
Mr. Berger is the creator and developer of the YDP screening tool, a chart system and its analysis for screening and monitoring dividend income equity investments. The recipient of Seeking Alpha's Outstanding Performance Award, he also has been Seeking Alpha's #3 ranked Author for Income Investing Strategy & #4 for Utilities.
20 years of sitting in the board room gives me unique insights into Oil & Gas investments and corporate deal making in general. Additionally, he offers a Premium Research subscription service for boosting income while reducing market risk using covered option writing on a dividend income equity portfolio.
Residing in Brazil gives me a local's inside view on the pulse of its economy, politics, investment climate and breaking news. A view of my front yard is available here.
A former Chief Operating Officer, Director, Vice President and General Manger of Oil and Gas for Southern Pacific's Oil and Gas Operations, Business owner, geologist, and cribbage player, I've been an investor for over 48 years (started young at 13) and learned my lessons the way that makes them stick, by hard knocks and both big and little mistakes. Hopefully I can share some of those lessons with others.
I am an American expatriate that decided to retire at age 57 in 2009 and now live in Brazil. As an early retiree I invest for income and manage portfolio risk by screening for strong and reliable historic data along with favorable fundamental and technical current trends.
I spend 6 months/year living at home in Brazil and 6 months/year traveling the world. I have structured my financial positions so that I live virtually tax free with much of my income exempt from US tax since I live ex patriot and a lot of my US derived income over the annual ex-patriate exemptions is held in my tax free ROTH and tax deferred IRA/SIMPLE plans. This enables my tax savings to pay for my 6 months of annual traveling :) .
My investing is for income and appreciation with a balance of low to moderate short term risk and low long term risk. To accomplish this I use quality dividend payors with a long track record of steady or increasing dividends along with slowly appreciating equity prices. I target a 6 to 9 % yield and almost exclusively require a minimum history of 5 years of steady/increasing dividends and no decreases in dividend ever or at least past 10 years. I diversify through sector, country and currency unit the stocks are traded in, and security type (equity, royalty trust, REIT, mlp, etf, and ADRs).
I use covered call writing to enhance my portfolio yield with no added risk. In fact, it lowers the risk substantially. Once I identify a stock I want to own and an entry price for it, I write cash covered puts at or below that entry price (with a minimum of 1%/month time premium. Thus i obtain at least a 12% annualized yield before compounding just from the option premium.
Likewise, I use the sale of cash covered puts to generate income and and generally get an entry point at 5 to 10% below my acceptable entry level price if/when the put stock does get presented. Thus my strategy provides a 12% pre compound yield on cash and entry into stock purchases at a 5 to 10% discount from "retail".
Because I only select stocks that I am willing to hold long term for their reliable dividend yields of > 6%, I am not concerned much with market volatility or short/midterm risk. Indeed, market volatility is my friend since it increases the premiums paid on the options I sell. I also selectively sell covered calls on positions I hold long so as to add to my yield that way while not taking on any additional risk.
This strategy has kept me happily living off my portfolio income and traveling 1/2 the year while my portfolio has been slowly increasing in value even after my harvesting income for living expenses. Of course my income will incrementally increase when social security kicks in for me in a few more years and I may then slightly mofidy my goals and strategies.
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John Cole Scott is Chief Investment Officer at the firm and holds the Series 66 FINRA Licenses. In 2002 he earned the Certified Fund Specialist designation (CFS). For over 15 years John has specialized in closed-end fund/BDC research, analysis and trading.
He has been quoted or interviewed by Bloomberg, SmartMoney, Investment News, The Street, Morningstar, Registered Rep, Reuters, Bond Buyer, Better Investing, USA Today and The Richmond Times Dispatch and published in SR Consultant. He has presented at conferences or events in Atlanta, GA, Charlotte, NC, Boca Raton, FL, Chicago, IL, Denver, CO, Houston, TX, Miami, FL, Minneapolis, MN, Naples, FL, Newark, NJ, Richmond, VA, New York, NY, San Francisco, CA, Tampa, FL and Washington DC including several keynote addresses.
In April 2008 John founded CEFA's Closed-End Fund Universe, a comprehensive weekly data service covering the closed-end fund industry currently with 185+ data points per traditional CEF and 115+ per Business Development Companies (BDCs). We launched BDCUniverse.net in August 2015 as the first BDC Research website covering all public BDCs. In November 2008 he founded "The CEF Network" on LinkedIN with 1375+ members.
John is a long time member and current Board Member of The Richmond Association for Business Economics (RABE) and serves on the Investment and Standing Committee for The New York State Society of The Cincinnati. He can be reached via: firstname.lastname@example.org or (804) 288-2482.