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  • 5 Common Errors Of A Dividend Growth Forecast  [View article]

    I wasn't referring to the 'biased' results, but more to the 'non-biased' results.
    From the P123 data, review the 'trades'. I understand you wont share the data (per the other thread), but are there cases that resulted in a sale via your ruleset that would have been an 'exception' per the CCC ruleset?

    The reason for the questioning is that I recall the flurry of articles/comments about how COP had frozen their dividend ... when in fact it was a raise.

    FWIW, in a modelling scenario, I think the rule should have spinoffs sold when delivered, and the proceeds added to the original investment. Then the measure is, do the dividend dollars received exceed the previous period.

    I spent a small amount of time playing with P123, and can see the power, but establishing 'proper' rules does seem complex. Your efforts here are welcome, and I hope my questing doesn't seem like criticism of that effort.
    Mar 4, 2015. 03:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dividend Aristocrats: Should They Be A Part Of Your Investing Decision? (Part 1)  [View article]
    David, what you mention about the 'cost' of NOBL is one I have a hard time with as well.
    Being that it is fairly 'new', I wonder how hard it would be to reconcile a DIY version.
    For example say $100k invested in:
    A) NOBL, dividends reinvested on pay date.
    B) Replicate the allocation and re-balance schedule, figure a $10 commission for trades, a modest slippage (large cap volumes and low beta shouldn't have much slippage), and dividends reinvested on pay date.

    I suspect that the difference would fall more toward the yield produced by B versus that provided via A.

    If that is true, the 'cost' of NOBL is much more than the management fee.
    Mar 4, 2015. 02:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Common Errors Of A Dividend Growth Forecast  [View article]

    I think one difference as you noted in another recent article is that the guidelines you use are not quite the same as those of the CCC list. The differences are somewhat subtle and may not be something that can be modelled in P123.

    On the notes page of the CCC sheet, Mr. Fish describes what is considered a streak and what constitutes a 'cut/freeze' on the notes tab.

    For example, the CCC list doesn't consider a 'cut/freeze' on the 1yr anniversary of the previous raise. There are other situations I suspect your modelling fails to equal (e.g. splits).

    That said, I appreciate the effort you have done in your articles. A simulation of the rule of "cull if dividend is cut or frozen" seems simple, but in reality can be difficult (e.g. the 'early payers' of 2012, or the 'freeze' of COP after the spinoff, etc).
    Mar 4, 2015. 02:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Roth Advantage No One Talks About  [View article]
    This is how I maintain my "emergency account".
    Feb 26, 2015. 11:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Roth Advantage No One Talks About  [View article]
    The 5 year waiting period is only for those <59.5 who desire to withdraw their contributions without penalty. Note, gains would be subject to penalty.
    It is also from the first contribution (i.e. last years contribution can be withdrawn if the Roth was start prior to 5 years ago).
    Conversions have their own 5 year "clock" at which point they can be withdrawn without penalty.
    After 59.5, there isn't a 5 year waiting period.
    Feb 26, 2015. 11:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Portfolios: Income Is Critical, But You Need Growth Too  [View article]

    I think you miss a part of what bonds can also provide to a portfolio.

    Yes, the income is fixed, but they also have a market value. It is THAT which can be beneficial. They aren't entirely a buy and hold to maturity, more buy and monitor (just like an equity).

    Say you purchased a $10k ~5% bond, collected it's income till now. What's its 'worth'? It depends on the maturity AND the demand. If the equity market plummets due to 'something', you may be wanting some capital to pick up the equity 'bargains'. Guess what, that bond may be worth $12k you can sell to a willing buyer. You have a capital gain as well as the income at precisely the point you want to allocate that into equities.

    I'm a value investor. Show me something 'undervalued' I'm interested. In the mid '90s bonds were cheap, equities not so much. In late '08 when people were running to 'safety', equities were getting oversold and buyers lining up for those '90's long bonds.

    Would I be a net buyer of bonds today? Nope, I don't see the value proposition at this moment due to the rates available.

    Would I be a net buyer of equities today? Possibly, there are some individual choices that are attractive, but I wouldn't say it's a buying spree moment.

    Would I be holding cash? Somewhat, but only for a short duration until an alternative becomes attractive.

    What to do? Personally, I'm easing into what I find least distasteful in the equity markets (of which I'm overweight due to the ongoing bull). Honestly, it kinda sucks.
    Feb 19, 2015. 03:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Champions: 15 Increases Expected In The Next 11 Weeks  [View article]
    I think of them as being in the 'Hall of Fame'
    Feb 19, 2015. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Project $3 Million Dividend Results - Objectives  [View article]
    I also have been through spinoffs, but this one seems odd ...

    At the time, a (roughly) 1/8 spinoff had NO effect on the price of KMB. Wha???

    I expect the 'book' valuation of KMB was considered a wash, but I now have shares in a $2B company for 'free' :)
    Feb 5, 2015. 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Project $3 Million Dividend Results - Objectives  [View article]
    Surprised no one has mentioned KMB and HYH ...
    Feb 5, 2015. 08:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Income Growth' Vs. 'Dividend Growth' - The Re-Match  [View article]
    Is there a listing of the funds you are invested in?
    I'd be happy to see the 1/1/15 list and actions taken since and going forward (as long as the going forward, the moves are beforehand).
    Feb 5, 2015. 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much 'Extra' Return Are You Getting If You Reinvest Dividends?  [View article]
    "I can now speak of the "total return cost of a vacation".
    I may never leave home again. :-( "

    I spent roughly $10k for a vacation when my wife and I were in our late 30's (roughly 10 years ago).
    I'll never bother calculating the "loss" of return from those dollars, the memories are worth much more.
    Feb 3, 2015. 05:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Portfolio Review: Year One Of My DGI Journey, Part I  [View article]
    Here's details on the googlefinance function for use with google docs.
    Jan 27, 2015. 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much 'Extra' Return Are You Getting If You Reinvest Dividends?  [View article]
    Personally, I 'accumulate and then deploy' my dividends.
    This is primarily because I prefer a bit of a cash cushion (aka. 'dry powder'). This fluctuates between 5% to as much as 10% (it's not a set dollar amount BTW).
    Because of the cash cushion, I can be strategic in where the reinvestment and it's eventual compounding occurs.
    It can be considered 'timing the market' but I view it more as letting the market provide me the bargains.
    I also never let the accumulation age more than 6 months, it's been rare that something doesn't become worthy in that timeframe.
    Jan 26, 2015. 06:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ditching The 401(k)  [View article]
    I concur with what Mike has outlined for most folks.

    One other aspect to consider is that the Roth contributions can be useful for maintaining and emergency fund. The contributions (but not earnings on them) can be withdrawn without penalty at any time. This feature provides a nice cushion for a true emergency need.
    Dec 29, 2014. 12:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Roth Conversion Odyssey (Part 1)  [View article]
    So, has anyone, with no earned income opened a new Roth (and never had one ever), have a custodian that allows this?
    I'm asking because it could be useful ...
    Oct 21, 2014. 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment