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curreyr

curreyr
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  • Kinder Morgan: Mega Merger Enhances Dividend Growth Story [View article]
    David stein,

    The ordinary income component of the 2014 k-1 may just bump you a bracket. Remember SS becomes taxable after a certain point
    Aug 11, 2014. 08:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investors: Do They Have A Point Or Is It Too Close To Call? [View article]
    MathRulz,

    Don't dismiss so easily. The 'don't exist' argument should be stated as 'don't exist in the same form'. M/A, spinofs, etc make the effort very difficult. Also the '7 tossoffs' were a necessity due to lack of historical data.

    Is it perfect? No. Is it subject to criticism? Sure. Should it be completely dismissed? No!
    Jun 13, 2014. 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time Warren Buffett Got It Wrong [View article]
    Dale,

    My understanding of bucketing is that positive equity returns flow into fixed income (e.g. a bond ladder), fixed income then flows into the cash bucket, and cash is withdrawn for expenses. The fixed portion most likely not a fund either, but instead a ladder of differing maturities.

    The point being that fixed income is replenished from positive equity returns and drawn from during periods equities are in duress. The cash portion is used to smooth the results for extended bear/bull runs (e.g. 2-3 years of expenses).
    Jun 11, 2014. 11:40 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investors: Do They Have A Point Or Is It Too Close To Call? [View article]
    Fair enough.

    IMO, the DGR is a reflection of a well run companies expected sustainable earnings growth rate. Y/Y earnings can fluctuate, but a well run DG company is likely to smooth that and become observable in their 1/3/5/10 DGR.

    The other aspect is that stock price typically fluctuates around actual and/or expected earnings. So, the history of the DGR, which I consider an insight to the actual companies history and expectations, isn't a bad gauge for price valuation.

    None of this is the extent of my DD, but also not as simplistic as 'pick the top 10 DGR off a list'
    Jun 10, 2014. 06:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investors: Do They Have A Point Or Is It Too Close To Call? [View article]
    Varan,

    "http://bit.ly/Y7VezG

    On the basis of total returns since the inception of the respective portfolios, this strategy beats all of the DG portfolios on SA hands down, and requires only a few hours of work at the beginning of the year. "

    I might be dense, but isn't that a DG portfolio. It appears to simply be champions filtered for the top 10 highest 5 year DGR.

    FWIW, the CCC list is archived back to ~2006 so you could remove some of the survivor bias if you choose.
    Jun 10, 2014. 04:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The All-Aristocrat Team: Dividend Stocks You Can Trust In An Uncertain Market (Part 5) [View article]
    "whichever CPI is used, that index understates the price increases which we all see every day in the supermarkets, in the stores, on the streets, and in the press."

    Every specific individual has a different 'rate of inflation'. For example: The decline in natural gas prices reduced costs for many, but not for me; The effect of gasoline price increases impacts me to a lessor degree than others; etc.

    The biggest issue I have with the SS-COLA is that it's using CPI-W instead of CPI-E. Take a look at http://1.usa.gov/ZfJ4CF
    Jun 10, 2014. 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The All-Aristocrat Team: Dividend Stocks You Can Trust In An Uncertain Market (Part 5) [View article]
    "The Social Security Act specifies a formula for determining each COLA. According to the formula, COLAs are based on increases in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). CPI-Ws are calculated on a monthly basis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics."

    That's what I said. The COLA is based from CPI-W which does include food and fuel. The detailed tables can be referenced here: http://1.usa.gov/1oIOdCO (includes both the CPI-U and CPI-W tables)

    Yes, the BLS does produce other indices of which some exclude food and fuel, but the SS COLA isn't based on those.
    Jun 10, 2014. 11:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investors: Do They Have A Point Or Is It Too Close To Call? [View article]
    chowder,

    That's my 'benchmark' ...

    My yield is a bit lower, growth a bit higher, beta a bit higher.

    Last year, and preceding years of this bull, are difficult to weigh for 'long term'.

    The test will be when we have a 'pullback' or multi-year bear market.
    I suspect the yield will skyrocket (same divs lower price), growth decline (~CPI or perhaps lower), beta increase (portfolio vs. market).
    Jun 9, 2014. 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investors: Do They Have A Point Or Is It Too Close To Call? [View article]
    Lowell,
    "Assume one has a goal of generating 3% (or some other percentage) income from a portfolio. What does it matter whether or not that yield comes from index instruments or individual stocks?"

    I measure income in dollars not percentages. The reason for this is that the percentage is based upon the "price" of the portfolio.

    As to benchmarking, the 'return/volatility' I'm interested in is in regard to the dollars received year over year.
    In particular this is a function of the dollars paid and the rate that has increased relative to inflation.
    If there is data presenting that information for 'funds' in general, I'd be interested in seeing that for a benchmark.
    Jun 9, 2014. 02:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The All-Aristocrat Team: Dividend Stocks You Can Trust In An Uncertain Market (Part 5) [View article]
    "2-3% income from a stock is not income. Its barely meeting Inflation trends."
    The 2-3% is the income but it also has a growth rate (see the CAGR's presented above) that has been well in excess of inflation for the 5 presented.

    "Lets Remember that the Gov't's COLA Numbers exclude, Food, Fuel and other daily essentials in their calculations."
    The COLA (for SS) is based upon the CPI-W which does include food, fuel, and essentials (see http://1.usa.gov/1oNFRYH).
    Jun 9, 2014. 01:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirees Please Don't Index, You Deserve Better Than Average [View article]
    I have roughly 30 positions at a current yield of 3.5%. About half of it is from the CCC universe with others probably becoming challengers soon.
    Jun 3, 2014. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Dividend Growth Portfolio's 6th Birthday Report [View article]
    "There isn't a term that I'm aware of that's used to identify what you call YOC."

    I'd refer to it as 'yield on amount invested'. This isn't something I personally track other than anecdotally might refer to a holding as 'house money' (e.g. selling half of a holding which doubled)
    Jun 3, 2014. 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirees Please Don't Index, You Deserve Better Than Average [View article]
    Roman,
    Define an active strategy.
    I'm guessing it doesn't involve 'buy at value and monitor'.
    So the point of that study is what?
    Jun 2, 2014. 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What A Successful Moema Launch Means For Solazyme [View article]
    sometimes the 10b5's are used to exercise options with the sale to cover the tax implications (aka. sell to exercise). With a probably ~43% withholding rate in CA, exercising an option in order to lock in a basis at say $10, could mean a tax bill of $2.15 (e.g. $5 NQSO strike, current $10).

    This could be considered to be a 'long' position since the insider expects the $10 basis to be cheap a year later. At that point, the $10 basis becomes a long term cap. gain.
    Jun 2, 2014. 02:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirees Please Don't Index, You Deserve Better Than Average [View article]
    There are a number of comments here referring to 'average' without a qualification (statistically) on what they refer to 'average' as being.

    There is "arithmetic average' which is properly referred to as the 'mean'.
    There is "distribution average' which is properly referred to as the 'median'.
    In a colloquial sense, many people assume these are the same. The reality is they only are in a normal distribution.

    The quote "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics" (M. Twain) is pretty relevant. In the case of statistics being used, the word 'average' is often utilized to perpetrate the lie.

    For example:
    The average net worth of residents of Omaha, Neb. is above the national average.
    The average net worth of residents of Omaha, Neb. is below the national average.

    Let's assume the 'national average' has a mean and median relatively closer than that of the distribution of 'Omaha, Neb.' (this because of the notable resident of said city).
    I can make a case that both of the above statements is true. I simply need to pick the 'average' I use.
    Jun 2, 2014. 01:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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