To the other aspect of "Using your definitions, financial security could be achieved through the income stream OR the pile of money."
Yes, but then it's what "strategy" you will employ to meet the financial security goal. It could be "rental property", or "4% withdrawal", or "DGI", or ...
I think the point of the article is that *your* strategy might *require* certain aspects (e.g. rental rates mirror inflation, or ~4% + inflation annualized returns, or ...). So, why compare to an index?
I believe the point of the article is that with "project $3m" the goal is the "$10k per month that also increases at least at the rate of inflation".
IMO, the project is mis-titled since the $3m indicates a wealth goal where the actual goal has little to do with the "wealth" number.
Here's a "for example": A person in 08/08 has a $3m wealth, that generates $9k/month. The wealth goal is met, but the income goal isn't. By 03/09, they have $1.8m of wealth, but (due to dividend increases) now generates $10k/month.
I'm personally not retired yet, but I don't have a "number" goal, I have an "income + raises" goal.
Apple: When Negatives Can Be Positives [View article]
Don't forget the Newton ...
from wikipedia ... "A possible Newton revival was at one time a common source of speculation among the Macintosh user base; when patents for a tablet based Macintosh were applied for, rumor sites jumped at the possibility of a new tablet PC-style Macintosh. This later turned out to be the Apple iPad, which currently runs Apple's proprietary iOS System Software.
In September 2009, Michael Tchao, one of the Newton's marketing product champions, returned to Apple. Michael Tchao is now the VP of iPad Product Marketing."
My wife and I had a pair 0f "MessagePads" in the '93 days (aka still Skulley era). For those that reminisce ... http://bit.ly/YTPhn8
Building A Long-Term Strong Dividend Achievers Portfolio [View article]
TAS,
I've read a number of comments that infer (and/or outright state):
"why go through all the mechanics of a lenghty portfolio exercise when one could achieve practically the same, or better results from a small handful of ETFs with a successful track record that focus on the style you advocate?
My questions are:
1) What's the difference between picking a "small handful of ETFs" vs "speculating on individual stocks"? Isn't it still a "picking" exercise?
2) What timeframe is the "successful track record" you mention? Many ETF's I've looked at have a very short "track record".
3) Are there some articles here at SA supporting the thesis that "odds are over the long haul you will not beat the reversion to the mean unless the luck factor is assumed". If so, why are we "seeking alpha"?
The Hard Truth Of Dividend-Growth Investing [View article]
chowder,
"I owned CTL at one time. When they discontinued their 37 year string of dividend increases and froze the dividend, I was out, and with a nice profit too. No questions asked. It was no longer a dividend growth company."
I saw that last year and got half out (also with a nice profit).
I was on board that the freeze was a worthy step to get balance sheet in order. They needed to transition, and I was willing to hold half while they did so.
The absolute insane move recently has me with a tight stop on the remaining half. When my stop hits (I'll tighten it while it bounces), I'll be out and won't look back.
The Hard Truth Of Dividend-Growth Investing [View article]
I doubt the "heat" of what you refer to.
The article is showing that following some "index", as in the full Champions+Challengers list, is sub-optimal. I doubt this is a surprise. Some setup a strawman as if DGI is simply "follow the list", which isn't what most DGI follow.
If one adds in another selection factor (e.g. "Comprehensive: QVG"), then you do get "alpha".
BlackBerry - Some Roads Aren't Meant To Be Traveled Alone [View article]
Nefas and green_ember, I was just commenting that there are many industries that are dominated by a select few "players".
Do they have subordinate industries? Of course! (within the smartphone industry as well). Can smaller players have a "niche"? Of course! (within the smartphone industry as well).
It's possible that BBRY can be disruptive to phones as foreign imports were to the "big 3" auto industry.
BlackBerry - Some Roads Aren't Meant To Be Traveled Alone [View article]
"7) How many industries REALLY only have 3 players worldwide?" I can think of a couple ... Aircraft manufacturing ... granted a phone that crashes often is different than an aircraft. Heavy equipment (CAT, DE, etc) ... phone downtime is minuscule to downtime when running your heavy equip. Auto manufacturing ... granted a phone that crashes often is different than an auto that has to be recalled.
Retirement Plumbing: The Cistern System [View article]
One other analogy I would add is that the contents of your cistern can have three forms:
1) Liquid - This portion you can open the outflow tap and recieve money (e.g. cash or cash equivalents). 2) Illiquid - This portion doesn't necessarily flow through the tap without an external force which may have a cost (e.g. Housing, collectibles, etc) 3) Gaseous - This portion also doesn't flow through the tap. It also may evaporate (e.g. Paper cap gains, inheritance, etc).
Establishing My Dividend Growth Strategy And Portfolio As A New Investor [View article]
One suggestion I would add is to consider "cash" as one position in the portfolio and have it maintained at fully funded status (e.g. 3-5% from your plan) at a minimum.
When a buying opportunity arises, you'll want the ability to strike. The new capital you'll be adding can help restore the cash level back to full funding.
I personally also have a roughly 3-5% weighting of ~25 equities. I attempt to maintain my cash in the 6-10% range.
The Volume Theory: Determining Which Stocks May Continue To Trade Higher [View article]
"Higher volume = more shares traded " I understand what volume is.
My point is HFT trading is artificial volume that is more likely due to whatever the algorithm is based upon (e.g. bid-ask spread, interest rate movement, one currency vs. another, etc).
Is your thesis that HFT algorithms that may trigger and spawn "volume" are somehow an indicator?
Market Strategies - Benchmarks [View instapost]
Yes, but then it's what "strategy" you will employ to meet the financial security goal. It could be "rental property", or "4% withdrawal", or "DGI", or ...
I think the point of the article is that *your* strategy might *require* certain aspects (e.g. rental rates mirror inflation, or ~4% + inflation annualized returns, or ...). So, why compare to an index?
Market Strategies - Benchmarks [View instapost]
I believe the point of the article is that with "project $3m" the goal is the "$10k per month that also increases at least at the rate of inflation".
IMO, the project is mis-titled since the $3m indicates a wealth goal where the actual goal has little to do with the "wealth" number.
Here's a "for example":
A person in 08/08 has a $3m wealth, that generates $9k/month.
The wealth goal is met, but the income goal isn't.
By 03/09, they have $1.8m of wealth, but (due to dividend increases) now generates $10k/month.
I'm personally not retired yet, but I don't have a "number" goal, I have an "income + raises" goal.
Market Strategies - Benchmarks [View instapost]
I personally don't consider wealth and financial security as exactly the same.
Wealth may be "3 million".
Financial security is $10k per month that also increases at least of the rate of inflation.
These are NOT the same (hence apples and oranges).
Apple: When Negatives Can Be Positives [View article]
from wikipedia ...
"A possible Newton revival was at one time a common source of speculation among the Macintosh user base; when patents for a tablet based Macintosh were applied for, rumor sites jumped at the possibility of a new tablet PC-style Macintosh. This later turned out to be the Apple iPad, which currently runs Apple's proprietary iOS System Software.
In September 2009, Michael Tchao, one of the Newton's marketing product champions, returned to Apple. Michael Tchao is now the VP of iPad Product Marketing."
My wife and I had a pair 0f "MessagePads" in the '93 days (aka still Skulley era).
For those that reminisce ... http://bit.ly/YTPhn8
Dividend Reinvestment [View instapost]
Just remember you can:
Buy the product and not the stock.
versus ...
Buy the stock and not the product.
Examples might be tobacco, junk food, feminine hygiene products, pacemakers, ...
Building A Long-Term Strong Dividend Achievers Portfolio [View article]
I've read a number of comments that infer (and/or outright state):
"why go through all the mechanics of a lenghty portfolio exercise when one could achieve practically the same, or better results from a small handful of ETFs with a successful track record that focus on the style you advocate?
My questions are:
1) What's the difference between picking a "small handful of ETFs" vs "speculating on individual stocks"?
Isn't it still a "picking" exercise?
2) What timeframe is the "successful track record" you mention?
Many ETF's I've looked at have a very short "track record".
3) Are there some articles here at SA supporting the thesis that "odds are over the long haul you will not beat the reversion to the mean unless the luck factor is assumed".
If so, why are we "seeking alpha"?
"Good night, and good luck" ... E. R. Murrow
The Hard Truth Of Dividend-Growth Investing [View article]
"I owned CTL at one time. When they discontinued their 37 year string of dividend increases and froze the dividend, I was out, and with a nice profit too. No questions asked. It was no longer a dividend growth company."
I saw that last year and got half out (also with a nice profit).
I was on board that the freeze was a worthy step to get balance sheet in order. They needed to transition, and I was willing to hold half while they did so.
The absolute insane move recently has me with a tight stop on the remaining half. When my stop hits (I'll tighten it while it bounces), I'll be out and won't look back.
Retirement Plumbing: The Cistern System [View article]
The Hard Truth Of Dividend-Growth Investing [View article]
The article is showing that following some "index", as in the full Champions+Challengers list, is sub-optimal. I doubt this is a surprise. Some setup a strawman as if DGI is simply "follow the list", which isn't what most DGI follow.
If one adds in another selection factor (e.g. "Comprehensive: QVG"), then you do get "alpha".
Is 3D Printing A Huge Bubble? [View article]
That said, at 14, the Sinclair was fun and opened my mind for the capabilities of programming "computers".
BlackBerry - Some Roads Aren't Meant To Be Traveled Alone [View article]
I was just commenting that there are many industries that are dominated by a select few "players".
Do they have subordinate industries? Of course! (within the smartphone industry as well).
Can smaller players have a "niche"? Of course! (within the smartphone industry as well).
It's possible that BBRY can be disruptive to phones as foreign imports were to the "big 3" auto industry.
It's your investment dollars ...
BlackBerry - Some Roads Aren't Meant To Be Traveled Alone [View article]
I can think of a couple ...
Aircraft manufacturing ... granted a phone that crashes often is different than an aircraft.
Heavy equipment (CAT, DE, etc) ... phone downtime is minuscule to downtime when running your heavy equip.
Auto manufacturing ... granted a phone that crashes often is different than an auto that has to be recalled.
Retirement Plumbing: The Cistern System [View article]
1) Liquid - This portion you can open the outflow tap and recieve money (e.g. cash or cash equivalents).
2) Illiquid - This portion doesn't necessarily flow through the tap without an external force which may have a cost (e.g. Housing, collectibles, etc)
3) Gaseous - This portion also doesn't flow through the tap. It also may evaporate (e.g. Paper cap gains, inheritance, etc).
Establishing My Dividend Growth Strategy And Portfolio As A New Investor [View article]
When a buying opportunity arises, you'll want the ability to strike. The new capital you'll be adding can help restore the cash level back to full funding.
I personally also have a roughly 3-5% weighting of ~25 equities. I attempt to maintain my cash in the 6-10% range.
The Volume Theory: Determining Which Stocks May Continue To Trade Higher [View article]
I understand what volume is.
My point is HFT trading is artificial volume that is more likely due to whatever the algorithm is based upon (e.g. bid-ask spread, interest rate movement, one currency vs. another, etc).
Is your thesis that HFT algorithms that may trigger and spawn "volume" are somehow an indicator?