The Volume Theory: Determining Which Stocks May Continue To Trade Higher [View article]
"Higher volume = more shares traded " I understand what volume is.
My point is HFT trading is artificial volume that is more likely due to whatever the algorithm is based upon (e.g. bid-ask spread, interest rate movement, one currency vs. another, etc).
Is your thesis that HFT algorithms that may trigger and spawn "volume" are somehow an indicator?
Why Dividend Growth Is My Investment Strategy [View article]
Integrator,
This comment is probably one of the most insightful I've read on SA for quite a while. Honestly it is worthy of a full on article if your up to expounding further.
My current income is substantial, but has for a number of years been in jeopardy of becoming $0 (aka who does my employer layoff this quarter).
So, the only aspect *I* can control is my expense side, and how could that be satiated via another source of income (e.g. dividends from investments, a capital pile for drawdown or startup capital, etc).
I have no regrets. At the decision time in 08/11, I'd narrowed to KMB vs COP, and went with COP.
The funny thing was the eventual purchase in 06/12. KMB was rated a 'hold'. I slapped my head and said "yes, that's something I want to 'hold'".
The true lesson I learned was that "opportunity cost" could become quite an expensive cost. Some of the advise I see of "wait for a 10% pullback" or "wait for profit taking" completely ignores the opportunity cost aspect.
FWIW, I have 27 positions. Some are fully funded @ 5% and some are half funded. Cash is always fully funded!
After the 08/11 debt ceiling debacle, I had some dry powder to deploy. KMB was on my watchlist and it had declined some but wasn't off it's 52 wk high by very much (~$68 vs ~$64). So, I waited.
The beginning of 06/12 I had a new infusion of cash to invest and revisited KMB. Of course it was yet again near it's 52 wk high (~$80 vs ~$78). Seeing that ~28% change in 11 months since I'd last considered it, made me decide to wade in knee deep and pick up some. Was I chasing momentum?
On 01/08/13 I decided to get in waist deep (note still very close to a 52 wk high).
And today, another 52 wk high.
My takeaway from this learning experience isn't a "coulda or shoulda" but instead examining my own paralysis. I found I was more concentrated on the "52 wk" price than the other aspects that made me want to own this quality stock.
As it stands now, a 10% drop (~$10) would erase my paper gain (the $2.22/share div not included). IMO, that's possible, but unless the div is in danger, it wouldn't make me sell (no principle loss).
P.S. I hoping for a nice 8%-10% raise for the div :)
Dividend Investors To Face Significant Challenges Going Forward [View article]
Skeptical12,
The CCC list is a "screen". To make the "list(s)", the equity has a very specific characteristic which is their past behavior of dividend increases. Note: the list also includes additional data that is useful and relevant.
This also isn't a "screen" that is generally available from most "finance" or "brokerage" sites (hence it's worth).
Dividend Investors To Face Significant Challenges Going Forward [View article]
I think what you diminish is that the historical data can show how an individual company has BEHAVED in various environments. The various environments may include: 1) Various taxation environments 2) Global unrest environments (cold/hot wars, etc) 3) Boom/Bust cycles and 4) Inflationary periods (note in some cases, there may be multiple environments at the same time).
I'm not going to invest solely on a data screen (e.g. the CCC list) blindly because of past BEHAVIOR (in particular dividends) and expect that I can extrapolate that into some level of PERFORMANCE, but I do give it some merit (aka in no way "worthless").
If the thesis here is "ignore the past", then what's the alternative?
In its effort to shed its non-core businesses Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is reportedly shopping its women's health unit. The unit, which competes with products from Procter & Gamble (PG), had world-wide sales of around $1.6B in 2012, which represents just a small percentage of JNJ's $67B in total sales over the same period. Still, with the right price tag, it's big enough to potentially pique the interest of private-equity buyers. [View news story]
Please oh please have AAPL purchase it. We'll NOW have iPad Maxi.
The Perfect Portfolio: Year End Update [View article]
In reference to the "plan/goal" aspect let me offer this.
I'm in "accumulation phase", have an excessive income for my living expenses (excessive being positive cash flow month to month), and have next to nothing in debt.
We closed the end of 2012 year at a ~$290k portfolio. Income was only ~$6k (~$100k was added mid year from a land sale). The 2012 GOAL was $300k, so a slight miss.
I have a GOAL of my portfolio being $420k by the end of 2013.
Some would call that a crazy goal (~45% return y/y), but I also have a PLAN!
#1 Have existing holdings generate ~4% of income on the $290K (roughly $12k by end of year). The risk here is that the DGI investments don't produce to expectation.
#2 Contribute "excessive" personal income at ~3k per month ($36k by end of year). The risk here is that my outside income status could change.
#3 Collect $70k off the balloon on a real investment deal with a partner. This is a secured loan where the NAV is already positive.
#4 A $10k (<4%) capital gain. The risk/bonus here is obvious.
The point being that I have a "goal/plan".
It is obviously specific to my circumstance. It could also change from an "event" that is personal in nature.
The Volume Theory: Determining Which Stocks May Continue To Trade Higher [View article]
I understand what volume is.
My point is HFT trading is artificial volume that is more likely due to whatever the algorithm is based upon (e.g. bid-ask spread, interest rate movement, one currency vs. another, etc).
Is your thesis that HFT algorithms that may trigger and spawn "volume" are somehow an indicator?
The Volume Theory: Determining Which Stocks May Continue To Trade Higher [View article]
Why Dividend Growth Is My Investment Strategy [View article]
This comment is probably one of the most insightful I've read on SA for quite a while. Honestly it is worthy of a full on article if your up to expounding further.
My current income is substantial, but has for a number of years been in jeopardy of becoming $0 (aka who does my employer layoff this quarter).
So, the only aspect *I* can control is my expense side, and how could that be satiated via another source of income (e.g. dividends from investments, a capital pile for drawdown or startup capital, etc).
Dividend Reinvestment [View instapost]
I have no regrets. At the decision time in 08/11, I'd narrowed to KMB vs COP, and went with COP.
The funny thing was the eventual purchase in 06/12. KMB was rated a 'hold'. I slapped my head and said "yes, that's something I want to 'hold'".
The true lesson I learned was that "opportunity cost" could become quite an expensive cost. Some of the advise I see of "wait for a 10% pullback" or "wait for profit taking" completely ignores the opportunity cost aspect.
FWIW, I have 27 positions. Some are fully funded @ 5% and some are half funded. Cash is always fully funded!
Dividend Reinvestment [View instapost]
I have a story that illustrates this.
After the 08/11 debt ceiling debacle, I had some dry powder to deploy. KMB was on my watchlist and it had declined some but wasn't off it's 52 wk high by very much (~$68 vs ~$64). So, I waited.
The beginning of 06/12 I had a new infusion of cash to invest and revisited KMB. Of course it was yet again near it's 52 wk high (~$80 vs ~$78). Seeing that ~28% change in 11 months since I'd last considered it, made me decide to wade in knee deep and pick up some. Was I chasing momentum?
On 01/08/13 I decided to get in waist deep (note still very close to a 52 wk high).
And today, another 52 wk high.
My takeaway from this learning experience isn't a "coulda or shoulda" but instead examining my own paralysis. I found I was more concentrated on the "52 wk" price than the other aspects that made me want to own this quality stock.
As it stands now, a 10% drop (~$10) would erase my paper gain (the $2.22/share div not included). IMO, that's possible, but unless the div is in danger, it wouldn't make me sell (no principle loss).
P.S. I hoping for a nice 8%-10% raise for the div :)
Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio Update: Dividends, Diversification And Stunning Results [View article]
"why is an investor not better off purchasing a high-quality dividend ETF for the time being until the outlook becomes clearer? "
Such as what? (I'd be interested in knowing how that has performed as well).
Thanks
Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio Update: Dividends, Diversification And Stunning Results [View article]
Dividend Investors To Face Significant Challenges Going Forward [View article]
The CCC list is a "screen". To make the "list(s)", the equity has a very specific characteristic which is their past behavior of dividend increases. Note: the list also includes additional data that is useful and relevant.
This also isn't a "screen" that is generally available from most "finance" or "brokerage" sites (hence it's worth).
Dividend Investors To Face Significant Challenges Going Forward [View article]
Dividend Investors To Face Significant Challenges Going Forward [View article]
1) Various taxation environments
2) Global unrest environments (cold/hot wars, etc)
3) Boom/Bust cycles
and
4) Inflationary periods
(note in some cases, there may be multiple environments at the same time).
I'm not going to invest solely on a data screen (e.g. the CCC list) blindly because of past BEHAVIOR (in particular dividends) and expect that I can extrapolate that into some level of PERFORMANCE, but I do give it some merit (aka in no way "worthless").
If the thesis here is "ignore the past", then what's the alternative?
The Perfect Portfolio: Year End Update [View article]
The intermediate yearly goals are simply our means to measure the progress through the years until we have "arrived" at _our_ finishing line.
In its effort to shed its non-core businesses Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is reportedly shopping its women's health unit. The unit, which competes with products from Procter & Gamble (PG), had world-wide sales of around $1.6B in 2012, which represents just a small percentage of JNJ's $67B in total sales over the same period. Still, with the right price tag, it's big enough to potentially pique the interest of private-equity buyers. [View news story]
We'll NOW have iPad Maxi.
The Perfect Portfolio: Year End Update [View article]
I'm in "accumulation phase", have an excessive income for my living expenses (excessive being positive cash flow month to month), and have next to nothing in debt.
We closed the end of 2012 year at a ~$290k portfolio. Income was only ~$6k (~$100k was added mid year from a land sale). The 2012 GOAL was $300k, so a slight miss.
I have a GOAL of my portfolio being $420k by the end of 2013.
Some would call that a crazy goal (~45% return y/y), but I also have a PLAN!
#1 Have existing holdings generate ~4% of income on the $290K (roughly $12k by end of year). The risk here is that the DGI investments don't produce to expectation.
#2 Contribute "excessive" personal income at ~3k per month ($36k by end of year). The risk here is that my outside income status could change.
#3 Collect $70k off the balloon on a real investment deal with a partner. This is a secured loan where the NAV is already positive.
#4 A $10k (<4%) capital gain. The risk/bonus here is obvious.
The point being that I have a "goal/plan".
It is obviously specific to my circumstance. It could also change from an "event" that is personal in nature.
Hello Taxes... Goodbye MLPs [View article]
A Short Rant On "Cliff" [View instapost]
As a mechanic would say, "Thars yur problm".