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  • How Investors Can Mitigate Their Portfolio Risk In Today's Tumultuous And Volatile World: Part 1 [View article]

    I think the implication that risk is implied by volatility has merit for cases where the sale of assets is the source of income.
    Being a farmer can be "risky" since the price volatility of his crop impacts his income. The same can be said of retirees that are "decumulating" their nest egg.

    What I've come to realize is that the value of my assets isn't their price today, but their ability to produce an income. A farmer with 120 acres of productive farmland is less concerned with value of the 120 acres, but more upon the ability for that asset to produce his income.

    I apply this to the companies I invest in. The productive nature of the investment is paramount to me, not its day to day price.
    Aug 29 04:55 PM | 31 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Stocks: Lose-Lose-Lose Proposition In Intermediate Term [View article]
    It was _your_ assessment that was incorrect, and you should attempt to analyze why. To dismiss the flaws of your past reasoning means you will fail to learn from it.

    " If your assessment of the probabilities and prospective returns was as mine was, then having made the return you alluded to was akin to having won by playing the slot machines. "

    Do you accept that others may have had a different assessment? In which case they didn't "win in a casino", instead they made a proper assessment as opposed to yours.

    If you feel you are never wrong, just that others "got lucky", then you should really reflect on _that_ problem.
    Jun 7 01:49 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dark Side Of Tesla's Masterful Short Squeeze [View article]
    "the other automakers that are building zero emission vehicles will saturate the ZEV credit market."

    Which other automakers would that be that will saturate the ZEV credit market?
    May 22 04:10 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bogle's Views On Retirement Income [View article]
    my favorite quote is:

    "A small handful of corporations, particularly the top five of them, control corporate America. And corporate America needs a lot of cleanup, a sweeping out. Executive compensation is a disgrace. Political contributions made by corporations are a disgrace at least until the shareholders approve it. And I had a proposal out there that didn't go very far; it said corporations should be able to give nothing to charity unless the shareholders approve that gift of corporate assets for charitable purposes. And for any kind of purposes, any kind of a gift should not be allowed by the corporation, because they do it usually in their own executive self-interest or feelings of what's best for the company. And sometimes that's good for society and sometimes it's not.

    So when you look at the whole picture, really we're the last gatekeeper. Think about that for a minute; I have a chapter in the book about gatekeepers. We're the last gatekeeper. We, the mutual fund industry. The courts have failed us in terms of shareholder rights. The regulators have failed. The security analysts have failed. The money managers have failed. Right down, the press has in many respects failed with a few exceptions. The fund and corporate directors have both failed, and we're now down to the last line: the shareholders who own those companies. And if they don't speak, there's nobody left, and corporations should not be left to operate as private fiefdoms of their chief executives."

    I'm now a bogle-fan, but not a bogle-head ...
    In some ways, I hope he might approve.
    Jul 18 07:32 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Partners: Hedgeye's Error Could Cost You [View article]
    Take a read of:
    It's a 10 year old article but isn't quite the character assassination you cherry pick from.
    Sep 18 04:05 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retired Investors: Is It Time To Consider A New Investment Strategy? - Part 3 [View article]
    Since I'm still in accumulation mode, most of my weighting decisions fall into where to allocate the inflow of capital to my accounts.

    To that end, I'm not sure I have a hard weighting "rule" but instead am following a sort of Darwinian method.
    The strong (good dividend growth), I feed.
    The lazy (slow dividend growth/freeze), I cull.
    The weak (dividend cutters), I slaughter.

    As a result, My weighting/balance seems to work itself out.
    Jul 12 06:21 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing And The Reluctant Spouse [View article]
    My wife and I structure "our" personal financial matters much like a business.

    We separate the responsibilities of payables and receivables. IMO, it's a mistake to have both be a single person for a family or a business (aka you spent what! on what?).

    We have a "board" that also involves another non-resident family member. This serves as an independent voice (which over her lifetime has amassed a 7 figure net worth).

    Myself as the "receivables" one, can focus on maximizing our income.
    My wife as the "payables" one, can focus on minimizing our expenses.
    Our "board" has informal meetings, but the inflow/outflow equation becomes well understood by all.

    We currently have a FCF of nearly 50%! I'm not a CPA, but I simply calculate as (income-expenses)/income.
    That "excess" is deployed via:
    50% to investments (savings, IRA's, brokerage)
    30% to capital improvements (remodeling, vehicle replacement, etc)
    10% to debt servicing (our only remaining debt is long term to our "board" member)
    10% to "fun" (vacations, bobbles, etc)
    Apr 3 05:36 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Positive Psychology Of Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    I don't think your anecdote is too far outside the norm. When the media, and to some extent, financial professionals are all focused on price movement, it can be conditioned to consider that "risky".

    It's similar to a gun-shy dog versus those conditioned to hunting. The crack of shotguns sends some dogs running to the hills while others see the opportunity of retrieving.
    Mar 20 04:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors sets in motion $1.6B convertible note offering [View news story]
    "I'm shocked... shocked to find that gambling is going on in there."

    "Your winnings sir."
    Feb 26 05:30 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Unbridled Truth About Dividend Contribution To Shareholder Profitability [View article]
    Let me see if I can set a stage that illustrates the premise of the author and that of some of those commenting. If this is in error of the data presented, I would welcome corrections.

    MYTH Corp has is projected to have $1/share future earnings. The market assigns a P/E of 15 (for this company). This implies shares trade at $15.

    The corp does in fact earn exactly $1/share over the year, and now has an expected future earnings of $1.20. This would indicate an expected 20% earnings growth rate in the upcoming year.

    What Chucks data shows is that when the market maintains it's historical P/E of 15 (for this company), the shares would trade at $18. This represents a 20% capital gain for the $15 investor and is in agreement with the earnings growth.

    MYTH Corp. decides it only needs to retain $0.60 of the $1.00 of previous earnings to obtain the future earnings of $1.20.

    So, what does it do with the other $0.40?

    One (of many) possibilities is to return it to shareholders that have rights to the "excess" (via dividend/distribution/... Who has "rights" to this can vary and could be owners of preferred shares or common shares and some may have differing rights to the excess.

    Note: a $15 share that gets a $0.40 dividend has a 2.66% return ABOVE the capital gain of $20%.

    Obviously the company may have *other* choices in how to use the "excess" and that may not involve shareholders. These other situations are beyond what the author is illustrating.

    The point is that WHEN a company returns some of its windfall to shareholders the shareholders get to participate in the success of the company ABOVE the capital gain alone.
    Dec 5 03:43 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividend Champions Of The Past Will Offer Minimal Long-Term Income And Total Returns [View article]
    well, learn write ...
    Sep 12 02:27 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retired Investors - Treat Your Income Generating Portfolio Like A Business [View article]
    Any business needs a business plan. That includes method, strategy, and exit. The method and strategy may evolve, but the "exit" is the goal.

    For myself and my wife, we run our finances as a "business".
    I'm "Accounts Receivable", and she's "Accounts Payable".
    There is no "Chief", but instead a "Board of Directors".

    As AR, I present to the board current earnings, and projected earnings. Sometimes that involves utilizing existing cash to increase earnings.

    As AP, she presents to the board current expenses, and projected expenses (e.g. upcoming prop. tax bills, etc). This also involves having sufficient cash for reserve (e.g. "black swan" events).

    The BOD meets monthly, and makes directional changes quarterly. The decisions generally involve utilization of cash for reserves, investment, pay down of debt, or distribution (a.k.a fun money). In some cases, future BOD meetings may be scheduled at a remote location (e.g. St. Lucia or Hawaii or Tahiti) and factored in for need and use of future cash.

    Our business has evolved from:
    A period, with high debt load, with minimal earnings that were growing, expenses were minimized as much as possible. This was the "check-to-check" days.
    A period, with substantial but manageable debt load, sufficient earnings, expenses still minimized. This was the "eliminate our debt load" days.
    A period (today), with an positive debt load (borrowed at 4.5%, get paid at 5.5%, via seller financed note) , high earnings, expenses normalized. This is our "accumulation" days, so excess cash is being invested.
    A soon to come period, with no debt, normalized earnings via investments, expenses normalized. This will be our "retirement" days.

    Currently that "business plan" is on track. The "exit strategy" (retirement) is about 10 years away.
    Jul 2 04:02 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Successful Dividend Investors Of All Time [View article]
    Another thing to note is that Schreiber and Groner also did this during a very misogynistic era.

    One can only imagine the number of times they were told that investing and finance is something beyond their abilities.

    Guess what ...
    Jun 6 12:16 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How You Can Invest Like Warren Buffett [View article]
    "Why not just 'buy the SPY' and forget about it? "
    The simple answer is, it might not fit your needs/goals.
    I could counter with why not just buy 'bonds' and forget about it.
    Mar 10 07:30 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are VYM And SDY Good Dividend Growth Investments? [View article]

    It isn't a bad strategy except that the day you decide to sell out and buy up might not be a good day. Your TR portfolio might be temporarily depressed, or the DG equities may be overvalued.

    A better plan might be to transition into DG stocks over a business cycle period (aka 5 or so years). During that 5yr period you can begin to recognize when value is present in a specific DG stock and act accordingly.
    Mar 6 02:40 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment