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curreyr

curreyr
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  • In Today's Overheated Market, Control Risk In Your Retirement Portfolios With Sound Valuation [View article]
    Namron,
    Your formula might work fine for you, and possibly others as well, but not even close to my situation. Figuring a yearly spend pattern for the YEARS of retirement is worthy, the 6% annualized return is probably reasonable, but the 'last 3 years' income pre-retirement isn't applicable IMO.

    In fact my last 7 years of employment were planned as if I was slayed off each and every quarter. My debt went first, excess income became invested, and when it did happen, I was prepared (retired at 49).
    Aug 24, 2015. 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Today's Overheated Market, Control Risk In Your Retirement Portfolios With Sound Valuation [View article]
    Varan,

    I've held off for a few because I'm generally confused about what your comment is referring to. If it was my comment about various means of determining valuation/price then ...

    "If that's what makes you feel good about it, great."

    It has nothing to do about 'feeling good' just an observation that differences exist in valuation mechanisms. BigTex asked about the wildly differing valuation methods of pros, I offered an real world example/metaphor.

    "For me the romance of poetry is wasted on something as mundane and anti-romantic as investing, especially since the question of how to invest is highly amenable to more concrete and quantitative approaches."

    If you consider what I put up as poetry it wasn't my intention. In the example, each of the three valuations would be established, based upon concrete and quantitative methods, as different valuations of the asset.

    "It is as they used to say in the cigarette commercial, what do you want, good grammar or good taste?
    You want poetry and cliches and metaphors, or concrete quantitative support for your thesis?"

    What thesis? That differing parties can establish differing valuations? That sir is what DEFINES a market.

    "If you want romance, go watch a movie with your better half or go surfing on the beach on a moonlit night."

    Ok, and I do, what does that have to do with differing methods of valuation?

    "To each his own."

    I agree.
    Aug 24, 2015. 02:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Today's Overheated Market, Control Risk In Your Retirement Portfolios With Sound Valuation [View article]
    BigTex,
    You ask an interesting question, and let me offer an anecdote.

    Say I own an orchard of walnut and cherry bearing trees.
    What's the value of the orchard?
    1) there's some value in the recurring income from harvesting the orchard
    2) there's some value in the wood of the trees, cherry and walnut lumber is desirable
    3) there's some value in the land it's planted on.

    A 'gentry farmer', 'timber harvester', and 'land developer' will all value the orchard as a whole differently.

    The "pros" are similar.
    Aug 22, 2015. 02:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Today's Overheated Market, Control Risk In Your Retirement Portfolios With Sound Valuation [View article]
    rayvt,

    "I don't get this. Does anybody really expect that somebody is going to lay out their personal financial information on a public internet message board to a bunch of unknown anonymous people? Does anybody believe everything that people say about how much money they have? "

    Questions such as "what are you invested in?" or "what percentages do you have allocated where?" isn't close to asking "how much money they have".

    I'm 90% equities, 6% bonds, 4% cash (in investments, I do maintain other cash for monthly uses and emergency funding). Notice I never used a $ sign.

    I could break out the equities (or bonds) into sectors (or families), for additional 'personal info'. I'm not concerned that someone might know I'm ~8% tech or ~12% consumer etc.
    Aug 22, 2015. 01:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Today's Overheated Market, Control Risk In Your Retirement Portfolios With Sound Valuation [View article]
    Zugzwang,
    I didn't see a definition of 'average investor' any place in that link. Could it possibly be those that blindly turn their money over to fund managers with their fees?
    To equate such a self serving article describing an uncategorized 'average investor' with a 'self directed individual investor' is disingenuous.
    Aug 21, 2015. 07:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Today's Overheated Market, Control Risk In Your Retirement Portfolios With Sound Valuation [View article]
    "'sit on sound value stocks which STILL diminish in value during a recession/bear market'."

    I think this might be what RW was referring to. The proper phrasing would be to 'sit on sound value stocks which diminish in price during a recession/bear market'.

    If the value is being derived from regular (and possibly increasing) payments, the price some fool offers isn't of primary concern.

    I really can understand those that do equate price with value. A persons beanie-baby collection probably has a price that is reflective of it's true value. The collector holding them would have a completely different opinion about that then myself however.
    Aug 21, 2015. 05:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Your Smart Beta Here! Dividend Growth Stocks As 'Strategic Beta' Investments [View article]
    WCI,

    In the second to last paragraph, your comment is addressed. Yes, DG is one of the factors, but combined with a history it can imply the quality factor and generally also implies a low volatility factor. The other factors you mention can be used to further refine the universe of how and what you choose to invest in. (e.g. momentum might be classified via dividend growth rate acceleration/decelerat...

    "the concepts of smart beta which is really little more than smart investing"
    On this, I completely agree.
    Aug 21, 2015. 04:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Today's Overheated Market, Control Risk In Your Retirement Portfolios With Sound Valuation [View article]
    "Do you mean, what's in my wallet? "

    I'm pretty sure you can answer "What are each of you invested in, the percentages, and how long have you been invested in it?" without using a $ sign.
    Aug 21, 2015. 02:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Your Smart Beta Here! Dividend Growth Stocks As 'Strategic Beta' Investments [View article]
    One factor that I hear mentioned on occasion is that proper diversification (i.e. to truly eliminate specific risk) can only be achieved with hundreds or thousands of securities. This has been also used to dissuade individual portfolio construction.

    IMO, I feel specific risk is sufficiently minimized with as little as 20-30 securities.

    Your thoughts?
    Aug 21, 2015. 12:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Learning From The Masters: Q&A Session With Chowder [View article]
    "And for those of you who don't know, Chowder is my real nickname. It was given to me by a friend who is a Yankee fan. I'm from Boston and he thought it would be funny. I liked it, it stuck, and it's what people call me around these parts."

    I always assumed it was a John D. Rockefeller reference ...
    May 14, 2015. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators... And The Golden Fleece [View article]
    "
    That is so, because the graph and footnote indicates that they found rejects, and instead of sending the lot back (as would be normal) removed 100% of the rejects (not just the rejects in a small sample) and sent a purified lot to the lab for testing."

    That is your supposition/interrepta... Honestly, my first read was similar.
    I believe that a more rational explanation is that the "lot" was rejected. You do realize that LL has probably thousands of sku's and each has hundreds of production runs/lots. Add to that multiple suppliers, each of which have differing reliability percentages, the pre-screen of each lot is a necessity.
    Apr 1, 2015. 09:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators... And The Golden Fleece [View article]
    Reel ken, you're missing the point. Let us say I'm manufacturing aspirin, I make 1 million pills per 'run', those are sent for qualification and random and representative of THAT run. My next run has some malfunction during manufacturing resulting in a product that doesn't pass a 'sniff' test.
    The second batch is rejected a priori to a qualification testing.

    So, my very bad manufacturing process has a 50% failure rate for these 2 runs, but the first 50% are qualified.
    Apr 1, 2015. 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators... And The Golden Fleece [View article]
    Perhaps it's a case of the inferior product was returned to the supplier.

    If the manufacturer does X number of manufacturing runs (possibly even different SKUs), and Y number of runs doesn't pass the pre-screen, the LL should reject the Y and submit the X-Y for compliance testing.
    Mar 31, 2015. 12:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dividend Aristocrats: Create Your Own Portfolio Or Invest In NOBL? (Part 2) [View article]
    "Maybe i'm just of the mindset that in order to consistently hit home runs you need to first learn to hit the damn ball. "

    No, you first have to step to the plate.
    Mar 18, 2015. 05:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Closes The Year With An Arbitration Win For Its Intellectual Property [View article]
    Toasty,

    I give absolutely no value to a patent portfolio, unless the 'method' of obtaining the specifics of a patent are a 'trade secret'. That is a tough row to hoe. I am making a point of reviewing theirs to see how much method is revealed (other than the obvious GMO of algae).

    Once a patent is filed, the details are public. The details themselves need to be sufficient in order for award, and in many cases are enough to have the 'invention' replicated. If that's the case, unscrupulous parties go free and get while they can. At award of the patent, the holder has recourse, but as you state, usually only the lawyers win.

    Patents are dinosaurs. It is much easier to control a 'trade secret'. It's possible only a few have access to the 'secret', and if the reveal it for monetary gain, can usually sued personally, resulting in financial ruin.

    One aspect that always makes me shake my head is the 'open source' movement. Apply for the patent, open the source, and then have the lawyers free reign defending it (at their own expense, where they take much of the award). Of course 'patents are evil' is the open source mantra (they simply don't get the fact that a patent is 'open').
    Mar 4, 2015. 04:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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