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slickvguy

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  • BlackBerry: How Much Worse? [View article]
    "With a very rational mind, you might be dead right that ownership implies focus. I've found that it also seems to act like a thought inhibitor at times based loosely on the unproven, yet observable, "I've bought it, so it is forever great" theory."

    Agree 100%. In case there's a misunderstanding, my comment was directed at the author of this piece. Just want to make that clear. Seems like a decent fellow but is woefully out of touch with market realities. I hope he is humble enough to learn a few things from me (it is not often I try to - or feel I am in a position to - teach). That is not arrogance on my part. The furthest thing from it. I am sincerely trying to help him. Anyone can get an article published on SA. Doesn't mean they know what they are talking about.

    "I always look at a stock with the idea that it is a fresh investment every day, because it is. ".

    Exactly. Because that is REALITY. It is extremely difficult to do. It's funny how people take the stock market so personally. As if the stock's price movement knows what their position is. lol. I see this all the time. So ignorant.

    Another common mistake people make is confusing the company with the stock. Two completely different animals. If you are buying or selling the STOCK, you must keep in mind all things related to the STOCK - not the company. Sometimes they overlap - sometimes not.

    I've written plenty on both the stock and the company. I really don't want to keep repeating myself. Perhaps I need a signature of sorts that has all my current opinions on Blackberry? lol.

    The future of the company is very uncertain. The stock movement over the next few months....less so.

    IT managers remind me of mutual fund managers. They are compensated for being average. They do not want to risk their personal security by sticking their necks out and standing against the crowd. Do you really think they care what they use? It's a job. Whatever makes life easier is what they will go with. I don't blame them one bit. IT managers cannot stand up to the masses (employees) who want their iphones and androids. Why would they endure that? Only if security is of paramount importance. The path of least resistance is to acquiesce. Even though they know those platforms are less secure. Even though they know the problems that come with those platforms. Doesn't matter. It's just easier for them (and cheaper for the company) to allow their employees to use the phones that they want to use. Completely understandable. Human nature.

    Fortunately for Blackberry, there are enough companies who will stick with them for one reason or another. The pie is big and they have a solid slice of that pie. There will be Pfizers and there will be Peugots. Importantly, Chen understands the value of selling ADDITIONAL products and services to those who remain with Blackberry. So not only will they get to keep a slice of the enterprise pie, but they will attempt to generate more revenue via additional services to that particular Blackberry slice. Also, they will go after slices of other pies (QNX being the one that I think has the most potential). I have absolutely no idea if they will succeed at that. Nobody knows. But once the company has stabilized (which is just a few quarters away), they will then have the opportunity to pursue new avenues aggressively. Low-risk, high potential reward. Makes sense.

    The shame is that this wasn't being done two years ago. Again, human nature. People and companies rarely make changes ahead of the curve. They do so out of necessity - which is a terrible waste. Until and unless the sh*t hits the fan, people are very resistant to change.
    Jan 5 02:35 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: How Much Worse? [View article]
    The range of price targets is absolutely and completely meaningless. I would very much like you to show me ANY evidence whatsoever that median price targets can be used to predict future price. You cannot.

    Analysts and price targets are meaningless in terms of future price. The exception being that frequently when enough analysts are bullish or bearish, fading them is a successful strategy. There is hard evidence to prove this.

    How many times do you have to see the same thing before you learn how this game is played? When "all" the analysts are on one side or the other...they are almost always wrong. Must I give you the THOUSANDS of examples through the past decade to prove it to you? Time after time after time we see the same pattern. All the analysts very bullish after a parabolic rise in SP? Sell! All the analysts very bearish after the SP gets crushed? Buy!

    I hope you've learned something from what I am telling you. There are few things we can know re: the stock market. What I wrote above to you is one of the few things you CAN count on.
    Jan 4 04:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: How Much Worse? [View article]
    No it doesn't. You are biased no matter if you own the stock or not. Do you not understand that? We ALL have our biases.

    Perhaps it would be more accurate to say one can be LESS biased if one does not hold a position? Maybe. But there is the other side of the coin. Those who don't have a stake tend to pay less attention to details, which I find your writings on BBRY demonstrate (no offense intended). Nothing focuses the mind like having your money at risk. ;)
    Jan 4 04:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: How Much Worse? [View article]
    Those who think JC has said and done the same things as TH are simply not paying close enough attention. You'd be hard-pressed to find two more different men and styles of leadership.
    Jan 4 04:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Shareholders Cheer Up, It Will Get Worse [View article]
    Kevin,

    I'm not missing the point. I just disagree with you. No offense intended. Happy New Year to you and yours.

    Jan 3 04:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Shareholders Cheer Up, It Will Get Worse [View article]
    Evaluate? Of course. Pretty basic stuff. But that has nothing to do with your WEB hypothetical.

    Missing the point? Hardly.

    p.s. VC's don't operate like WEB either. Had you posed the question "If you were a VC....what would be your arguments for and against investing in BBRY?" that would have made much more sense.
    Jan 2 01:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lazaridis Cuts BlackBerry Stake - Company To Transition Back To The Black? [View article]
    "Talk to anyone who currently works at Blackberry and you will find that they are sitting on their hands with no direction since Sept."

    I guess the code writes itself.
    Jan 1 12:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lazaridis Cuts BlackBerry Stake - Company To Transition Back To The Black? [View article]
    "No IT manager wants to be the one that made the decision to stick with Blackberry when their future is in doubt."

    Except for the ones who do. Guess they are part of the "no"? lol. Why not just say that "many IT managers are concerned"? At least that would be truthful and based on reality. But when you start with this stupid "NO...." it just renders your post useless.

    Read the comments by Peugeot. I find them to be quite interesting. What they were essentially saying is that even if BBRY disappeared years fro now it is *STILL* a better bet versus the competition.

    You can agree or disagree, but it shows you what one company was thinking. For you to say "no IT manager ...blah blah blah" is just silly. There are plenty of companies converting to BES10. Plenty more will follow. It takes time. And yes, some will be lost to the competition. Some will be pickups. That's business.
    Dec 31 11:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lazaridis Cuts BlackBerry Stake - Company To Transition Back To The Black? [View article]
    Amen.
    Dec 31 11:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lazaridis Cuts BlackBerry Stake - Company To Transition Back To The Black? [View article]
    I'm not going to argue with you. Believe what you want. In the public's mind, Blackberry did not produce "smartphones", at least not how we think of smartphones today.

    Either way, you're focusing on small details of what was a more important overall point I made. Would you be happier if I just said "they missed the boat!"? Yeesh.

    The point was that the guys who were terribly wrong for YEARS about what was happening in a market that they were once the LEADERS of...well, who really cares what they think or if they sell their shares, etc. They have proven themselves to be lousy managers and lousy businessmen. Period. Want to argue with me about that? Enough.
    Dec 31 11:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Shareholders Cheer Up, It Will Get Worse [View article]
    100%.

    The idea that WEB would touch a stock like BBRY is laughable. It is exactly what he stays away from.

    This is a contrarian, spec recovery play. Something you add to a portfolio to goose the overall return if things work out, but not take a bath if things go the ugly way.
    Dec 31 11:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Shareholders Cheer Up, It Will Get Worse [View article]
    "Thank God I don't have to embarrass myself with a public disclosure record of all of my bad calls."

    lol. Anyone who is honest would and could say the same thing. Those of us who have been in the game a long time know not to get too cocky when we're winning and not to get too down when we're losing.

    "I used to be a big fan of Watsa's. "

    I was never a fan of Watsa's. Comparisons to Buffett are (for the most part) silly. However, he has a proven track record of making good moves. Does that mean he wont' make bad moves as well? Of course not! Why would anyone think such a thing (yet people do)? No question that his purchase of RIMM at $40 was a bad move. But that is in the past.

    "That admiration diminished considerably with the whole sale process. His public assurances that he would close on his deal were a mar on his record as was the whole cronyism that went with the terms of that inside deal. "

    Agree 100%. Well said.

    I never admired him, so I can't say that my admiration diminished, but my view of the man is certainly not positive. He is a liar and not to be trusted. The notion that the reason he didn't go ahead with the privatization because they suddenly saw the light that BBRY couldn't handle that much debt, etc., etc., versus the truth of him not being able to put the deal together (i.e. raise the money) is insulting to even an average man's intelligence. That whole episode was like a bad movie script. Shame on the BOD and PW for the damage they have done with that fiasco.

    That having been said, I see what I see, and I look forward and dont' hold the past against him or anyone else. He is in complete control of Blackberry. He wants the stock to go into the $11's or higher so he can convert his debentures. He certainly wants BBRY to succeed and is doing what he can to turn it around. Raising a billion for BBRY and installing Chen was a good move. They are the future. If BBRY is to succeed, it will be because of them. Thus, at this particular time, his interests are aligned with small shareholders - which is a rare thing. But it is very clear that he won't hesitate to scr3w all of us at any point if and when it serves his interests. There is no question that ML was trying to put a bid together. PW conspired with the committee and BOD to essentially lock ML out. The deadline was supposed to be for the LOI - not ANY deal whatsoever! PW pre-empted by doing the debenture deal and shutting the door on ML.

    I wrote about this quite a few times on SA. The one thing PW could not afford to happen is to lose control of the company and get bought out at a loss. He was not willing to allow that to happen. He was not willing to allow a BREAK UP to happen either, because if that resulted in a net distribution to common shareholders of $8 or $9 or whatever figure you want to come up with - it would have meant that his paper loss would have become a real loss - and he simply wouldn't have it (shareholders be damned).

    So now we're in bed together. I suggest we sleep with one eye open. ;)
    Dec 31 11:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will BlackBerry Run Out Of Cash? [View article]
    "heh, the wind is in control. I'll wait for the stock to hit $8 before considering hopping back in."

    Why would you not consider the other side? You have a negative bias on BBRY. That's not a good thing to have on ANY stock.

    Don't fight this stock. Ride with it. In 2014 "they" are going to move it UP (not down). At least for the next 6 months. ;)
    Dec 31 02:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Shareholders Cheer Up, It Will Get Worse [View article]
    Exactly. Thank you for putting the record straight.

    And I am no fan of his either. That LOI fiasco (bluff?) was ridiculous.

    But I'm tired of people posting so much misinformation (not singling Chris out at all).
    Dec 31 02:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lazaridis Cuts BlackBerry Stake - Company To Transition Back To The Black? [View article]
    He's NOT mistaken.

    You all might want to rethink Chen's segmentation of BBRY into FOUR main groups. QNX is one of them. If any of you don't think that Blackberry is going to try and penetrate far deeper and wider markets with QNX, then you have not been listening at all.

    Each of the four groups is going to produce. You watch.

    Here's my prediction. Come back to it two years from now. QNX will wind up being the biggest money producer for Blackberry over the long run.

    Did you guys not hear what the man said? M2M is the future! Forget about all these toys and social networking. Secure, RT, multitasking, embedded OS is where we're heading. This is the ONE great decision that Blackberry made years ago. The founders deserve credit for that one. Unfortunately, turning it into a smartphone o/s took the company to the brink.
    Dec 31 02:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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