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slickvguy

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  • Will BlackBerry Run Out Of Cash? [View article]
    There's nothing clever about this guy. Articles like these make SA the joke that it is. Yahoo can link all they want - it's 95% garbage.
    Dec 24 02:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Investors Say BlackBerry Isn't Dead Yet [View article]
    "but I believe the shorts are goig to think why should we be worried now because this will take some time to play out and reload their short positions."

    The retail shorts will think like that. The large, professional shorts won't. What Friday did was take away the shorts' thesis, i.e. BBRY is not going down further anytime soon - perhaps for a very long time. It's not that it's a screaming buy. No. It isn't. But it's no longer a compelling short either. Thus, we'll likely trade in a relatively narrow range (unless we see more deals or concrete progress).

    The FINANCIAL bottom is in. I emphasize FINANCIAL to differentiate between the fundamentals and the stock's movement. When the financial bottom is clearly in - for the medium-term or longer - what's the point of staying short? You are NOT going to see $5 anytime soon. Those shorts were hanging in there in hopes that the stock would collapse down to a lower tier. It didn't. I've written about buying pressure vs. selling pressure before. Finally, we now have an increase in buying pressure (in anticipation of the turnaround) and a decrease in selling pressure.

    The pro shorts don't need to panic cover, as you said they don't need to cover at all, but there are better uses of their money and the risk has shifted. Between having to wait many months, possibly being very wrong (i.e successful turnaround), it has now become a lukewarm short. They will slowly cover, which will provide more support for the stock.

    I think we'll see it move between $6.50 and $8 over the next few months. Think about it. If the stock sells down to $6.50 on Monday - it'll be bought. That's a key difference. Before Friday, it would not have been bought up. But now many more longs think it's safe to buy, thus they will provide support.

    My prediction was $8 to $9 within 3 to 6 months. I'll stick with that, though I think it's conservative.

    I sold March $8 and $9 calls against my longs. I expect my shares to be called away from me.
    Dec 22 11:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deeper Look At BlackBerry's Q3 Earnings [View article]
    Randal,

    "What would you call Google, Microsoft, and Apple?"

    If I answered that - I'd be banned for life! ;)

    There is no sector without competition. BBRY is a medium-sized fish in a very big pond against huge sharks. Noted.

    Koreans? Are the enterprise clients going to trust their security to the Koreans? The Chinese? lol.

    Blackberry has had their foot in that enterprise door for quite some time, and unlike the handset erosion, the enterprise clients are far "stickier". What's better - that they keep losing billions on hardware? Chen spoke about making more money from existing clients. THAT is the way to do it. Blackberry doesn't need to be the king. They just need to hang onto a decent-sized piece of a good-sized pie AND stop losing billions on those freakin' devices!!!

    Today was MONUMENTAL in terms of Blackberry's future. Whether they admit it or not, they are finished with hardware. it won't be overnight, but it's clear. They canceled two devices. GOOD! They will try and dump all the BB10 handsets they have in inventory and go from there. Blackberry is now a software and services company. That is a large move in the right direction.

    To be sure, they are up against giants. But think about how much the smaller start-up MDM companies have grabbed from BBRY. Using your argument, that would not be possible. Yet, they've done it. BBRY can do the same thing. I think the part of the CC when Chen spoke about selling MORE different products/services to existing clients made a lot of sense. Build on their strengths. This guy is reality-based. Revenues. No more BS.

    I am not one to idolize or get too excited about new CEOs. Chen is nto going to wave a magic wand and turn BBRY sh*t into gold. But...he certainly has a vision, a realistic plan, and seems to know how to get things done. I am very impressed with how much things have changed in just 45 days. A huge breath of fresh air.

    There are various problems with Apple and Google in terms of enterprise. I'd say that MSFT is the one to worry about more than the other two.

    Bottom line: All this company needs to do is generate $2/share in service revenues w/ a 50% margin, right-size the company. If, god forbid, they actually do monetize BBM or make more money from QNX, well, then we're off to the races. Just imagine for a moment if this company ONLY had the services segment. The company would be in far better shape.

    If the company ends up losing enterprise customers, albeit at a slower pace, but the way they did the handset market share, AND they cannot find other ways to grow the company, then they are truly done. I say that that won't happen. There's enough there to pull it off successfully. We've seen this before in the PC and laptop businesses. But whereas Compaq was really just a hardware company - Blackberry has never been just hardware. I think the IBM recovery is a good model (of course, on a MUCH larger scale than BBRY). People forget how much trouble IBM was in when they got undercut by all the PC clones. So they shifted. Great move. DELL is trying to do the same thing. HPQ. Many examples. BBRY is going to try and do the same thing. it won't be easy, and there is stiff competition, but I think they will succeed enough to make the company a profitable growth company once again.

    As for me, I'll be long gone either way. lol. Just looking to get out of a bad situation (got caught in a bad trade) with a smaller loss or b/e. Waiting for $8-$9, which I believe will happen in the next 6 months, and then I am gone. Maybe I'd hold a few thousand shares just for a spec play.

    p.s. The comments from Chen re: the lawyers were fantastic.
    Dec 21 01:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deeper Look At BlackBerry's Q3 Earnings [View article]
    Excuse me. $624MM to be exact. Still plenty of recovery of income taxes left.
    Dec 21 12:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deeper Look At BlackBerry's Q3 Earnings [View article]
    Sure, part of what happened today (the ramp) was the typical MM games and weak shorts having to cover. However, it was more than that.

    Today was a THESIS changer if you are short.
    There is no longer a reason to be short this stock for at least the next three quarters. Management is in control of the situation and the numbers are relatively easy to forecast from here.

    Therefore, why stay short here? For example, I closed my puts today (using them just to hedge my longs) when we dipped into the low $6's temporarily because there is no longer a reason to hold those puts. The SP will go up and down, but the financial underpinning is clearly not going to deteriorate enough to worry about $5 or lower. So why bother? There is NO reason for this stock to go to $5 or lower anytime soon. BBRY is not going to blast off to the moon either. Which si why I sold calls against my longs today. It's going to take time. But it's also not going to zero anytime soon either - and THAT was the short thesis.

    Expect the stock to sell off into the $6's next week. That is to be expected. It's a long time until the end of March (next cc). Retail shorts will re-enter to try again. But I believe large, professional shorts will slowly cover when given the opportunity.

    The bottom is in. It's not a time to throw all your money at going long - so buying pressure will not be strong until we see some actual results - but it certainly is a time to close your short. Blackberry is not a screaming buy. It's a speculative buy. But it also is no longer a short.

    Today marked a turning point in Blackberry. It is no longer a smartphone company. It is a software company. Finally! If they would just stop losing so much money on the damn handsets, this can be a lean, mean, profitable, growing, software and services company.
    Dec 21 12:05 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deeper Look At BlackBerry's Q3 Earnings [View article]
    @Kenny: Well done. I believe it was $700MM.
    Dec 20 11:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's Reincarnation Won't Be Exciting But It Might Be Profitable [View article]
    An amazing amount of progress in just 45 days as CEO.

    The tone of Blackberry has significantly changed for the better. You can see it in every press release, in the way the conference call was handled today, in the firings and hirings, etc. Very pleased.
    Dec 20 11:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's Reincarnation Won't Be Exciting But It Might Be Profitable [View article]
    Couldn't disagree with you more.

    Blackberry has officially turned the corner. Yes, it'll take time to see results, and there is significant risk still there, but I believe this is going to turn into a profitable, growth company again.

    Closed my put hedges when it sold down a bit after the open. The FINANCIAL bottom is in...at least for the next few quarters.

    There is no reason to remain short this stock. Large shorts will begin to exit now because they realize it isn't going to $3 anytime soon. Retail shorts will keep trying.
    Dec 20 11:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Hedge Fund Analysts Are Saying About BlackBerry [View article]
    "I'm quite content to be on the sidelines. Actually very interested in hearing what the plan is. "

    Wise.

    As much as I didn't appreciate the indiscretion by Leo de Bever (AIMCO), his comments really sunk in (re: nobody having a real plan for a turnaround). If it's more blowing smoke up your you-know-where, it's all over. But I think Chen is serious about this. Unlike TH, I don't think he's motivated by greed. I think he wants to WIN. That would be a first for BBRY in a long, long time. He is assembling his team and they are going to give it a good shot. You can tell by the way the tone has shifted over the past month. Subtle - but very real.

    Only time will tell.

    I am reminded of wise words from Warren Buffett: "It is easier to stay out of trouble than it is to get out of trouble.” Unfortunately, I am now trying to GET out of trouble.
    Dec 19 01:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Hedge Fund Analysts Are Saying About BlackBerry [View article]
    What would be the point of that?

    Unless you think it might sell off due to the numbers and then come back due to the c/c. That's a strategy that could work on Friday.

    Otherwise, if it sells down on Friday, I wouldn't touch it until it settles.
    Dec 19 01:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Hedge Fund Analysts Are Saying About BlackBerry [View article]
    "Everybody expected that the Fairfax deal wasn't going to happen.
    Nevertheless when the confirmation emerged, the SP dropped."

    1) Not true. Obviously people who bought at $8 were most definitely thinking it would go through. I never thought it was a slam dunk, but I also thought it would go through. Wrong.

    2) That is a VERY different thing than what I was talking about. When a deal goes bust - the stock falls unless something is put in place that holds it up. I remember when the POT deal was killed by the Cdn. govt. Even then, it went down at first, but it quickly recovered because the prospects for the company were golden.

    Busted or non-busted deals are a separate category. But when it comes to earnings and SP movement, the expectation versus "reality" is what counts.

    As I said, if the company surprises to the upside or downside, it'll move big. Otherwise, it'll stick in the $6 range.

    3) I agree completely with your last point. Because even if the SP were to spike on Friday to $7, there would be huge selling into it. No way would it stick. If it goes up Friday, I'm selling calls against my longs and buying more (cheaper) puts for hedging.

    Until and unless there is a reason for BUYING PRESSURE to exceed SELLING PRESSURE, it won't move up (and stay up) by much. And there needs to be a reason for that to happen (increased buying pressure and reduced selling pressure). A) If the shorts start thinking "Hmm...they might just pull this off" instead of "BBRY is a zero", we'll see covering. At this point, no way are the shorts thinking of covering. Not yet. B) On the other side, if the idea that BBRY is coming back takes hold, that's when you'll see the buying come in too.

    I think your estimate of 2 quarters makes sense. If I don't see what I'm looking for by June, I'll close my position out. It'll take longer to actually turn things around in a major way, but it won't take longer to see the signs of a turnaround.

    At least they're trying. Much better than putting in another stooge like TH.
    Dec 19 01:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Take An Order! [View article]
    "swiping to move between screens is a nightmare"

    lol.
    Dec 19 01:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry BBM Is Totally Worthless [View article]
    One other thing I want to add, just to put it on record (though it had nothing to do with your post).

    Prem Watsa might be exactly right about what is to come: shorting the SPX and going long BBRY might work out VERY well in 2014.
    Dec 19 12:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry BBM Is Totally Worthless [View article]
    "But this is the trick, isn't it? Taking hardware and a complex operating system and wrapping it in something beautifully simple? "

    Not necessarily. Depends on the target market. As I said "the average person". There are people like me who use linux and there are people who can't even use Windows. Apple has been able to sell inferior hardware, with fewer features, at a high price and margin. Now THAT is some marketing, my friend! I wouldn't say there's a huge difference in difficulty operating the phones, but Apple is the easiest to use, hence its popularity with Americans. ;) Anyway, all water under the bridge. Those days are gone. Blackberry is turning the page and moving forward.

    Hmmm....yes I saw references to that article. I don't read what those people write. I ignore them all. They are so frequently very wrong. Sometimes right (which just by fluke anyone would have to be). The bottom line: Bernstein does not know. Worse, when on of those morons guess approximately right - which a monkey could do - then they are anointed as sages. lol.

    My own estimate is for $400-$500MM burn. $800MM seems too high.

    Also, not sure why it's "of the $1 billion". Why would it matter which money they spent? That kind of comment is made for effect and shows the bias. It's fear-mongering. Not the amount itself (which may or may not turn out to be true) but the way it is phrased. If you had $10 and I lent you $5 and then you spent $4, why would anyone say that you already spent "$4 of the $5"? You spent $4 of the $15 total. Either way, you have $11 remaining.

    As I've written elsewhere, the burn will not remain consistent for the coming quarters. Larger in one quarter or spread out over a few really doesn't matter in the end. Is Bernstein aware of the tax refund and whether or not it was received? Obviously they KNEW they'd burn big bucks! Why else would you raise $1B to $1.25B?

    Restructuring, settling purchase obligations, and severance takes money. No doubt about it.

    Even if they came out with a burn of only $100MM, it wouldn't matter to me. It would just mean they are going to burn more in subsequent quarters. There is no getting around the burn. Sure, it'll look scarier if it's a big number NOW, but the total will be the same regardless. Blackberry already knows what it'll be more or less. And for all the many, many things this company consistently gets wrong, cash is the one thing they've been pretty accurate at forecasting.

    It's NOT an accelerated cash burn, though that will be misunderstood and will be used as an excuse by the media and the shorts to push it down further.

    I have written many times...go back to the time of pre-BB10 release when it was delayed twice. Read the headlines. Month after month, day after day, the same fear-mongering. Read the analysis. It was almost unanimous that BBRY would RUN OUT OF CASH! before the launch that was then 9 months away. Didn't happen. Not even close. Cash was flat. Wow - talk about getting it wrong! Now, I'm not saying that the same thing will happen this time. No, it actually COULD be a disaster. I'd say there's a better chance of that happening now versus back then. Just illustrating how incredibly wrong these "experts" (lol) are almost ALL OF THE TIME.

    I like what I'm seeing from the company since Chen took over. There's a different tone and a much more serious, direct management style. A lot of good news lately that the market has just ignored. Also, as we've discussed previously, lets see if Chen is more honest on the c/c. I'm not optimistic.

    What I meant by "reasonable" cash burn is really EXPECTED. Blackberry themselves came out with a NR a few months ago saying that the restructuring was going to cost more than originally anticipated. I think $700MM was the figure.

    If they had $2.6B, I expect them to go down to about $1.5B after all the major cash ins/outs, plus the $1.25B in debt. I've seen companies in FAR worse shape than that.

    It's going to take and money. And even then, it's still a longshot (except that I think the SP will be pumped, I just don't know from what floor price).

    Bottom line for me: I think BBRY has one more good pump 'n' dump left in it. Whether it'll start from $6 and go to $10, or from $4 and go to $7, I have no idea.
    Dec 19 12:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Hedge Fund Analysts Are Saying About BlackBerry [View article]
    Everyone is EXPECTING a major cash burn. If the burn isn't that bad - and guidance of cashflow is ok - it's going up. If the cash burn surprises on the downside - the SP will follow.

    Remember one thing: it's expectation versus new perception of reality that moves stocks. Not objective reality.
    Dec 18 01:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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