slickvguy

Cycles, Recessions, and Looking Forward

The private sector went on a spending binge that it couldn't really afford, and disaster ensues. So what's the government's solution? You got it...spending binge that America can't really afford. Likewise, we got intot his mess thanks to Greenspan not allowing the tech bubble burst to play out. He fought the recession tooth and nail, lowered rates too low for too long, and the rest is history. So what's the govt doing now? Same thing. Instead of allowing the pain to take place NOW so that a true recovery can happen, they are fighting it tooth and nail, which will only delay the inevtiable. Propping up GM? Why in the world would you back your losers instead of your winners? How much more money to be thrown at Citigroup? At AIG? At FNM/FRE? Is there a single major financial company that was properly managed? (And please don't tell me Wells Fargo - they were BETTER than the others, but still not great).

The Treasury and the Fed have been wrong every step of the way. It would be funny if it wasn't so tragic. They have been ridiculously inconsistent and behind the curve. And now we're supposed to trust them to finally get it right? I don't think so. I realize they have an impossible job, but they haven't helped matters by their actions. They've made things worse. Here's my advice to the government: GET THE HELL OUT OF THE F'N WAY! Let the free market take care of this. Let's have a depression if we must. Clear out all the garbage and start over again. Let the winners win and the losers lose. Only then will we be able to rebuild properly.

And this stimulus miracle? What a crock. Did this guy in the article actualyl say 3x the proposed size? WTF? Why would he say that? There's zero chance of that happening. Waiting for govt. spending to save the economy? Are you kidding me? First, it'll have a very small impact. Second, it'll result in higher taxes (or far less public spending) down the road.

Finally, Some Holiday Cheer

Am I the only one who sees the giddiness today as a sign of extreme desperation? How many pundits have bought into the "trade this Obama bounce"? From Richard Russell to Marc Faber and everyone in-between. I'm slightly long here - I expected this rally. But the higher it goes now, the flatter I'll get, waiting to put on shorts again.

I don't think that the market has all the bad news built in. It's highly likely that we retest 2008 lows. This rally has that bubble feeling we had in 2000. Ignoring of reality. Optimism is nice - but REALISM is even better. Great values? Sorry - I don't see too many of those. I see lots of relatively lower prices - but that does not mean relatively cheap. To be sure, value is much better than it was a year ago. At SPX 800, I'm a buyer. At SPX 900, much less eager. And the higher we go above 900, the worse the expected reward gets for a value investor. Let others jump on the trend train. Haven't we seen that go bust enough times?

I'm not a doom and gloomer. We'll get through this eventually. But I see far too much wishing and hoping for rebounds/bottoms rather than recognition that fundamental long-term shifts have taken place. There's still far too much economic damage that needs to get unwound before a healthy recovery can take place. Did bailing out GM and Chrysler for a few months get rid of their problems? Of course not. All those layoffs and business closings are going to suddenly revers? Government trillions will take time to work their way through the system.

I hope I'm wrong, but I see this as a suckers/delusional rally. The higher it goes, the worse the outcome for those buying into it. When I sense the frantic buying of those who fear they have missed the bottom, it'll be time to short again.

Market Signal: Proceed with Caution

"If we don’t make a move up right about now, we could have some selling pressure. "

Man, what would we do without such insight?

Preventing the Depression of 2009

Yes, just what we need. After having done such a terrific job for so many years, lets give the govt even more power. Unreal. I'm deeply saddened and troubled that I live in a time where the majority's instinct is for more govt control instead of less govt interference.

Wall Street Boys Cautiously Bullish - Barron's

Who is NOT a "know-nothing"? We are ALL know-nothings. Because unless proven otherwise, nobody can predict the future. People can make GUESSES - and then we see who guessed correctly. But even if someone like let's say a Roubini is deemed to have guessed correctly, it still has no bearing on whether he'll be able to correctly guess again in the future. Sooner or later, he'll be wrong, just like all the other gurus who guessed correctly until they didn't.

Bottom line: Human beings are easily fooled. We just aren't that evolved yet - as much as we like to think we are. Commenter after commenter pretending he or she is brighter than others with no proof whatsoever. And that includes EVERYONE. Nothing - and I mean NOTHING - is as it appears. But we need to fill up our lives doing SOMETHING, so why not waste it reading endless market yammerings that are worthless? lol. Don't be too hard on the predictors et al. Just doing the silly human being thing. Illusions, and all that.

I'm not sure which of us is more stupid: those who insist on predicting that which they cannot know OR the rest of us who read and comment on the predictions. Round and round we go....


On Dec 21 05:02 PM hernje wrote:

> Who in their right mind would put any credence in what these know
> nothings say? The fact that every one of these 'experts' was completely
> blind sided by the biggest financial meltdown in the last 100 years
> shows that they are just a bunch of talking heads, with absolutely
> no special insight.

Mr. Yun, Listen to Mr. Stumpf: Housing In Worst Shape Since Great Depression

"(notably the one major financial institution except Goldman Sachs not to have a writeoff.)"

Oops. ;)

Today's Correction Was Liquidity Driven

I wish people would stop using the word "correction" to describe downward movement in the market.
It's manipulative to use such language. Reminds me of "pro-choice".
It's a sales pitch. Orwellian.

Is This the Start of a Bear Market?

Nobody knows where the market is heading. Period.
Bear market? Only in hindsight will we know.

I find all such speculation worthless.