slickvguy

Exclusive Interview with Jim Rogers: Inflation Is Coming

Excellent post.

Not to take anything away from Jim Rogers, but the touting of his record is completely subjective and without merit. Where is the data to support the praise that gets heaped on him? Where are his buy and sell calls? Instead, we get generalities. He has been right about some things, and wrong about others. The media (and many investors) are in awe of him because of his wealth.

For example, he has been dead wrong about commodities since the bubble burst. Did he advise anyone to sell? No. He has said that is holding and buying more - the whole way down. This might work for a billionaire - but it spells disaster for the average investor/trader. Can't have it both ways! If he gets lauded for speaking about commodities before the bull run, then he deserves criticism for not giving the sell signal on the way down. Also, he has been dead wrong about the US dollar, but has a ready-made excuse to explain away that one (shorts covering, etc). And he was wrong on treasuries - shorting them too soon. I don't mind that he's been wrong (everyone makes bad calls) but it bothers me that the media never mention those things in their hysterical adulation of the guy.

Another criticism I have is of these so-called interviews (media appearances). They are so superficial that they are nearly worthless. He never gets asked DETAILED questions. Never gives specifics in his answers - so he can't be nailed down. But not only are the details lacking in his predictions (which is somewhat understandable), but more importantly, in his REASONS as to why he thinks what he does about various investment opportunties. He offers a few VERY broad and general statements with that "I'm right - you don't know anything" tone and attitude and then it's onto the next subject or question.

I like Mr. Rogers, and respect him, but his alleged "record" doesn't stand up to scrutiny andt the media fawning over him is no replacement for serious, hardnosed financial journalism.

On Jan 16 03:18 AM sundrenched wrote:

> "Now when a man with that kind of track record (4200% gain over 10
> years) gained from being able to look ahead and read the tea leaves
> "
>
> Correction: He was the junior partner in the Quantum fund which returned
> 4200% in the 1970s. Soros has stated explicitly that Rogers was someone
> who "did the work of 5 analysts" but in the end ALL decisions were
> taken by him. The work was clearly split up so that Rogers was the
> analyst (with a knack for seeing the big picture), and Soros the
> decision maker. Just go google it. Soros went on to build the bulk
> of his fortune after Rogers left. This is not to take anything away
> from Rogers' achievements, but the fact is that there's no easily
> verifiable track record for him, just a lot of predictions over the
> years, among which many prescient ones. I recently re-read the 1989
> Market Wizards and a lot of his predictions there did materialize,
> but others didn't. Notably, he was already extremely bearish on the
> dollar then. As another poster wrote, the problem with this big-picture
> stuff is in the timing, and you can get your shirt ripped off your
> back in the mean time. For instance, if a new panic breaks out that
> we're entering a long-term slump (Japan-style, but world-wide this
> time), commodity prices could drop a lot further from where they're
> now (as of now, they're still well above the levels before the whole
> commodity boom started). For what it's worth, that's how I'm playing
> it: I expect most commodities to sink further in the short run.<br/>
>
> As for China, in the very long term I believe he's right, but given
> that only 30% of GDP there is domestic consumption (40% exports and
> the rest capital investment, a lot of it in turn export oriented),
> that there's a middle class of barely 150 million people there, and
> that the Chinese are tightening their belts even more now their explosive
> growth has come to a halt, in the short run things could get very
> ugly very easily there. I don't think the market has fully factored
> in what's coming in China yet. Now there's this sense that China
> is in a much better position, but frankly, I'm convinced recent economic
> statistics there are hogwash (exports barely dipped where those in
> Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan fell off a cliff... How?!?) and that in a
> few months the true extent of the decline will become apparent. China
> needs to overhaul its entire economy, and this will be the work of
> at least a generation. Chinese stocks are cheap now, but they could
> get A LOT cheaper in the future.