slickvguy

Buying USO Is a No-Brainer

On Dec 26 11:49 AM BrotherMaynard wrote:

> Nothing is a "no brainer" in investing. That sort of cavelier and
> careless attitude has lost a lot of people money in this environment.

Bravo.
And what does "no-brainer" mean? That you have no brains for opening the position? How I hate that phrase.

Everyone knows that one day commodities will be a huge winner again. Duh. That's always been true in the past, and even more so in the future. But WHAT to buy and more importantly WHEN to buy it is another story completely.

The fixation on the amount of price decline reminds me of people buying the financials in 2008 because "they can't go lower". Oops. If there's one thing to learn from the past year, it's that there's no sucha thing as "too low". Cheap does not mean low relative price!!! How many value managers (read: Bill Miller) got creamed buying stocks that were lower-priced but NOT cheap (i.e. good value).

You'd better have a rock-solid strategy mapped out, low or no leverage, and plenty of patience if you take positions now. And no matter how much they've fallen - they can fall much more. Oil falls to $25/bbl - not impossible by any means - it's still quite a haircut from current prices. I make no predictions on prices of commodities. Sadly, unlike almost everyone else, I am not able to predict the future.

At this point, I think people should focus on managing risk and getting through the sh*tstorm - rather than swinging for fences. Not the time to be a hero.

Why Gold Hasn't Been a Hedge Against Inflation

"The gold-to-oil ratio will keep rising until it comes down."

Brilliant.