I am an event-based investor focusing on opportunities with hard or predictable catalysts - particularly companies undergoing demergers or mergers, or otherwise able to manufacture high-probability growth due to some quirk of corporate structure, capital structure, accretive share issuance, growth via acquisition pipeline, competitive advantage/reinvestment, or other high-probability mechanism.
I am always on the look-out - especially in context of the opportunities mentioned above - for supply and demand imbalances: forced or uneconomic sellers, predicable (exploitable) behavioral trends, or unusual securities that can't be held by many industry players. Any ideas or thoughts would be appreciated.
I am an experienced individual investor who has been trading merger arbitrage stocks and options since the 90's. I am a writer with a Master of Science from Northwestern University and I truly enjoy writing articles about the stock market. I try to look for opportunities where the odds are in my favor and there is a definite edge. On Seeking Alpha my articles will aim to provide insight and favorable risk/reward for the readers.However, I am not an investment advisor so any recomendations or ideas I write about in my articles, blogs, or comments shouldn't be taken as investment advice. I recommend using my writings as a starting point to which you should add your own research or that of an investment advisor.
"Any time you make a bet with the best of it, where the odds are in your favor, you have earned something on that bet, whether you actually win or lose the bet. By the same token, when you make a bet with the worst of it, where the odds are not in your favor, you have lost something, whether you actually win or lose the bet."
-David Sklansky, "The Theory of Poker"
Chris DeMuth Jr. is the founder of Rangeley Capital LLC. Rangeley is an investment firm that focuses on event driven, value-oriented investment opportunities. Rangeley Capital and his value investing forum, Sifting the World (StW), search the world for misplaced bets. Rangeley exploits them for its investors and then Mr. DeMuth writes about them on StW.
I manage investments for high net worth individuals and defined contribution plans. I have worked for 25+ years as a commercial banker, private equity analyst and investment adviser. Undergraduate degree in finance from Indiana University, and MBA in accounting & finance from the University of Chicago. I do my own analysis of all investments, and have a strong value bias.
Just an average investor... primarily in American equity and bonds.
(Important Note: My articles, blogs, comments, reference links and messages are not intended to be investment advisements; or to value securities. Examples and considerations are hypothetical and educational. Please consult a financial advisor before making investments in any security. Thank you for reading!)