John Jeckle

John Jeckle
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  • AIG mortgage insurance spinoff plan lands with thud  [View news story]
    What do investors believe is the best outcome-- the Icahn plan? If so then I have to think Hancock will be forced to capitulate within 12 months as all other tactics fail to prop up the stock price.
    Jan 25, 2016. 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paris hit with coordinated terrorist attacks  [View news story]
    When two cultures inhabit the same physical geography and each vies for supremacy, conflict and bloodshed is inevitable. It happens every single time. Why don't we learn? Why are we so insistent on living in a world of multicultural theory and ignoring the bloody reality? Why do we prop up or topple regimes in countries that have no practical relevance to 99.9% of us, and invite this backlash?
    Nov 13, 2015. 10:43 PM | 43 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Major Valeant Short Packs It In While Another Admits Channel Stuffing Isn't Happening  [View article]
    Your fresh insight is a tweet from Oct. 25 and a reduction (but not removal) of a position? Not exactly ground-breaking material here.
    Nov 11, 2015. 10:04 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citron's Last Word On Valeant  [View article]
    They're not running a charity; they have to make money to make their effort worthwhile.
    Nov 2, 2015. 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, Break Up AIG  [View article]
    What will happen to the TARP warrants in the event of a break-up?
    Oct 29, 2015. 07:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banks Are Sorry They Took Your Money  [View article]
    You couldn't be more wrong. You just absolutely couldn't be more wrong. You think Americans don't want to work? They have to deal with a labor market that is inundated with low-ability workers from other countries whose sole defining attribute is their willingness to work for less money. There are Americans willing to work for every single job out there, but they horrifyingly require being paid, gasp, more money than an uneducated peasant from a third-world country. These Americans' ancestors didn't build this country into an economic powerhouse so their descendants could watch as corporations sell them out for a few measly pips on the quarterly report.

    I want my fellow Americans to earn more money. A dignified wage. I don't care if I pay a little more for my damn lettuce. For all our economic progress, real wages are LOWER than they were 45 years ago. And yet the elites earn much much more.

    What a great deal mass-scale immigration provides! It enriches the elites, and impoverishes the working class! I bet no social problems arise when millions of third-worlders from a completely different culture arrive here en masse, nor do I see any problem with millions of native-born Americans being forced to work for depressed wages or outright lose their jobs. Nope, our utopia awaits! Pass the cheap lettuce, I'm in the mood to celebrate!
    Aug 14, 2015. 12:38 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey Of Equity Valuation Models  [View article]
    I see lots of divining about how the stock market is overpriced by way of various charts, but why does no one ever post this chart?

    If you account for the fact that investors are dealing with the lowest interest rates in history, the rise in P/E values for the stock market is perfectly logical. There's no need to overcomplicate it. In a low-growth economic environment, companies that can deliver profits and/or growth are now at a premium, as they should be. Interest rates are going to continue to be low for at least the next five years. Yes, earnings growth will be lower than historic values, but so will bond yields and cap rates on real estate. This is the new normal.

    You have to compare apples to apples and you can't compare charts from a time when interest rates were 8% to now when they're 0.25% and tell me stocks are necessarily overvalued now at a 20 P/E.

    Unless some technological innovation changes the paradigm, economic expansion will continue to be slower than historically, interest rates and investment yields everywhere will be lower, and large corporations will take up the lion's share of profits. The last 5 years has been about returning equity values to where they should rationally be as the gap is closed between prevailing interest rates and stock market yields.
    Jul 24, 2015. 07:35 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious metals continue lower in volatile trade this evening, gold (GLD) off another 1.3% to $1,343/oz., and silver (SLV) tacking on another 3.3% in losses to $22.57. WTI crude oil slides 2.4% to $86.60/barrel. Stock index futures, however, show signs of a rebound, the S&P 500 (SPY) +0.3% and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) +0.5%[View news story]
    For the love of God man, there's two Ts in his name.
    Apr 16, 2013. 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious metals continue lower in volatile trade this evening, gold (GLD) off another 1.3% to $1,343/oz., and silver (SLV) tacking on another 3.3% in losses to $22.57. WTI crude oil slides 2.4% to $86.60/barrel. Stock index futures, however, show signs of a rebound, the S&P 500 (SPY) +0.3% and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) +0.5%[View news story]
    "Buffet" has repeatedly said he thinks gold is a stupid investment.
    Apr 15, 2013. 11:42 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can AIG's Earnings Extend Its Monster Recovery?  [View article]
    Whoops, got that one wrong!
    Feb 21, 2013. 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can AIG's Earnings Extend Its Monster Recovery?  [View article]
    Looks like they're gonna get spanked a bit. Stock trending down all week = insiders know. Should have sold and rebought, will learn a lesson for next time.
    Feb 21, 2013. 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Thoughts On The Berkshire/3G - Heinz Deal  [View article]
    Hammachi, getting bought out is one of the "risks" of stock ownership. Since it just about always results in getting paid a large premium, it is a risk that investors don't mind taking. Compare with other less-appealing risks such as bankruptcy, litigation, general market crash.
    Feb 17, 2013. 11:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG - Buy It Today For Value And Sell Covered Calls For A 37.5% Annualized Yield Rate  [View article]
    I'm not sure how I feel about the selling-covered-calls strategy. A stock contains a range of future possibilities for a given timeframe-- a 10% chance of going up 20%, a 1% chance of going up 100%, 5% chance of going down 30%, etc. The weighted average of these possibilities makes up the expected return. By selling covered calls you cut off the top of that range. You make slightly more money in most scenarios, but you lose when that occasional large heater hits. Do you lose as much as you gain? I'm almost certain you lose more, due to general market efficiency, the buy-ask spread, and brokerage fees. A decision has its own positive or negative EV, independent of other considerations. If selling calls on AIG is inherently +EV for a retail investor, then you should make a career out of it. But I don't think it is. The fact that it is a covered call doesn't change the EV.
    Feb 10, 2013. 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Better Burger Threat To McDonald's  [View article]
    We just got Five Guys in Canada and I paid $7 for a just-okay burger. Won't ever be back. I think McDonalds' quality is garbage but the price is always right and I do end up eating there occasionally as a result.
    Jan 1, 2013. 07:44 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: The Buy Of The Decade  [View article]
    How about Encana?
    Jun 16, 2012. 02:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment