Seeking Alpha

needsomebling

needsomebling
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View needsomebling's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Nokia Roulette [View article]
    C'mon Nokia! Papa needs a new pair of ...everything!
    Apr 17 06:14 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 8 most popular Nokia (NOK) Lumia devices account for nearly 3/4 of all Windows Phones (MSFT) in use worldwide, according to usage stats from Windows Phone ad network AdDuplex. The Lumia 920 and 800 are each estimated to account for 14% of WP devices in operation, the Lumia 710 13%, and the Lumia 610 11%. HTC's 8X and 8X are seen accounting for 4% apiece. Kantar Comtech's stats indicate Windows Phone is gradually gaining share in the U.S. and Western Europe, albeit from low levels. [View news story]
    So how many phones by unit does this translate into? There was a report saying that MSFT anticipates to sell 1M Windows phones per week, so does that mean NOK has sold approx 9M units in Q1? (1M*12 Weeks*3/4=9M)

    Because that would mean that they have beat analyst expectations by 25-33%...that would be huuuuge for the stock price...

    Long NOK
    Apr 9 03:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Renewed “Animal Spirits” And The Fed's Money Keep This Bull Alive?  [View instapost]
    I love your analysis, but unfortunately I fear for you as you will be one of the bears martyred to the Bernanke priniting machine.

    Looking at historical precedence to forecast a downturn is useless as never before was there a coordinated effort globally to print and increase the money supply.

    We just passed or matched a few records today in the market, and given the increase of the money supply, and also the promise for forever more money, this rally is not likely to end.

    The system has become so destabilised with the Euro debt problem and Chinese bad debt/inflation, that the only way to "fix" the problem is to print.

    I lost a lot of money thinking about the situation logically as you are, but with the switch on print on forever, the fundamentals of the game have changed. Any downturn will be quickly scooped up by the Fed. The abysmal volume is in my opinion an indication that Main Street is not investing as much. So now we have algo's and rich hedge funds duking it out among themselves. Will the governement or the Fed let them crater? Most likely not.

    The only real catalyst for change will be a repeated and significant increase in inflation, as that will impact "the real world". Right now its a game of passing paper to each other and riding the wave up.

    I don't think it'll end anytime soon. The Fed and the markets have surprised us quite a bit since 2008.
    Mar 14 03:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumia 920T (NOK) batches are still quickly selling out in China ... and that's not a good thing, argues Tero Kuittinen, since it points to ongoing production issues. Also of concern is the apparent delay of the Indian launch of the mid-range Lumia 620 (crucial to Nokia's emerging markets efforts) to early March. Kuittinen suggests declining volumes have hurt the priority given to Nokia by component suppliers, leading to shortages. Bloomberg previously reported only 30K 920T units had been shipped to China Mobile as of Jan. 30. [View news story]
    I can't wait for the pop that's coming in April and then through the end of the year :)
    Feb 21 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dip Is Fast Approaching [View article]
    No I don't see any market moving catalyst on the horizon. With the Fed printing 85B a month and BOJ and other central banks mulling qe options of their own, the market is going to keep going higher until all of the qe is truly priced in...

    I don't expect anything until march/april as the market has been slow in recognizing the gravity of the situation.

    If I am wrong, buy the dip, cuz the printing is will cause the market to continue to levitate...

    Long SPY/IWM options
    Jan 28 03:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia For The Long Term [View article]
    Here Here, wish I had more money to buy more stock and options at such dirt cheap levels...
    Jan 23 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhones Top Seller In U.S., Japan; Android (Read: Samsung) Winning Everywhere Else; Windows Phone Growing Most In Europe: Kantar [View article]
    These numbers are great for Nokia, it only started selling its phone in mid-Nov in these markets and has already made great headway. It only started selling in China in early Jan, so the report doesn't reflect the large upswing in market share coming for NOK.

    The usefulness of this report is like the usefullness of driving using your rear view mirror. There are BIG changes coming to the market with Windows 8 and BB10, the next battle for dominance in smartphones has already begun!

    Long NOK
    Jan 23 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Nokia's New Lumia Phones Live Up To Investor Hopes And Hype? [View article]
    I think a lot of the price targets for NOK are too conservative. I am thinking back to the Palm Pre story, where one phone with a lot of hype caused the stock to rise from $3 to almost $18. Of course in Palm's case the Pre was a sub-standard product with a host of problems. Nokia has a brilliant product with global scale and reach.

    The stock is already at $4.20 and 2012 is not over yet. By the end of Jan I see it at $6-7 if not more if Goldman starts to unload and tell its analysts to offer buy ratings. Maybe we will see NOK at $15-20 by April as q1 numbers come out with the full Chinese picture discounted into the data.
    Dec 19 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Lumia 920 - There Is A Non LTE Version Nokia Forgot To Tell Investors About [View article]
    I thought 4G and LTE was the same thing....
    Dec 19 02:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia (NOK) +5.1% premarket, adding to yesterday's gains (I, II). CNET has published an interview with CEO Stephen Elop in which he says Nokia is "planning a lot of exciting things with Verizon." Verizon (VZ) currently offers the mid-range Lumia 822, but the flagship Lumia 920 is for now an AT&T exclusive in the U.S. [View news story]
    Next stop $5, then $7...
    Dec 18 12:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia (NOK +4.7%) has cracked the $4 barrier today. Possibly helping is a Bloomberg report that HTC has shelved plans for a large-screen Windows Phone due to the fact WP8 doesn't currently support 1080p displays. HTC recently launched the Droid DNA, an Android phone with a 5" 1080p display. [View news story]
    I think it has to do more with an analyst from Liberum Capital mainiting his buy rating and saying that supply problems seem to have cleared up. I haven't had a chance to verify but he sais that Amazon US is now shipping phones within 24 hours after receiving an order.

    Link: http://bit.ly/12lf7Fi
    Dec 18 02:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial reports of sellouts for Nokia's (NOK) Windows Phone 8 Lumia hardware are "misleading," thinks Deutsche's Kai Korschelt, since they have much to do with supply issues. "Anecdotal evidence suggests that many stores have only received 5-20 devices/store with wider carrier distribution delayed in some countries," Korschelt writes, while speculating 28nm chip shortages are to blame. He also claims U.K. retail survey and Google search interest data for the Lumia line is underwhelming. (Raymond James[View news story]
    The strategy of discounting phones is similar to what RIMM did (and does) where it heavily discounts the phones to get it into as many hands as possible, the only driver for NOK right now is units sold as that is the key metric that matters to investors over margins etc.

    In Canada RIM phones werem ostly discounted to $0 -$99 when RIM phones were still popular
    Nov 30 02:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Take On The Nokia And Microsoft Partnership [View article]
    "...the Winkia combination still fails to impress enough consumers"

    You are wrong here, with the phones sold out or in back order in the US, Canada, Germany, France, Italy, China, Hong Kong (the list continues) the demand for these phones is only beginning.
    Nov 29 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Up Double Digits, Lumia 920 Doing Well [View article]
    This is just another Palm Pre like event, buy the hype of the phone, see main street jump in, ride it up to a good price and then sell...
    Nov 23 01:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
14 Comments
28 Likes