Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Is Microsoft Overvalued?  [View article]
    No doubt:)
    Feb 4, 2016. 11:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft +5.5% after earnings/guidance; Street talks up cloud growth, restrained spending  [View news story]
    If you're going to label it, call it herd mentality - not propaganda. The very same posts and articles from some of the very same people literally 2-3 years ago looked completely the opposite.

    Regardless of your opinions, herds often get it wrong or go a little too crazy. But often, something real is what spooks the herd.
    Jan 29, 2016. 05:20 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Suffers Revenue Decline In The December Quarter  [View article]
    One thing SA never fails on - fan boys on either side, not understanding why the market does something and not being able to see past "Apple vs MSFT". For once, however, the market got it right IMO.

    In my opinion, Apple got a little overbought, particularly in light of the fact that they lack diversity of products. Let's face it, iPod -> iPhone -> iPad -> AppleTV. These are quality products that have been highly profitable (with revenue clearly being your most important metric), but there hasn't been a huge change in the fundamentals. I am intrigued by what Apple Pay does to disrupt & for the bottom line, and may load back up if Apple continues to be pushed down -- as I often do. But I probably won't buy the stock because of a new version of the same iPhone coming out or because of the thought that maybe billions of people in China can afford $500+ watches... haha, that was a bad assumption to begin with. I can't even afford one -- well, choose not to waste hard earned money on such things. How is someone who makes $500 a month?

    Microsoft has been a fantastic stock to own for the past 8 or so years, right at the time when lots of people called for it's total demise -- was a great time to back up the truck. I haven't done the math on total returns, but there's no debate - it's beating the market. You get the stability of one of the few AAA rated places you can stick your money, a healthy dividend, and - now, it appears, the possibility of some growth too. The biggest challenges Microsoft has faced in the past couple of years - BYOD, cloud, mobile... well, we're seeing early signs of successful strategies on each front. Sure, financials of a cloud first company are going to be different than a company which made it's money off of shipments of Windows Server. Sure, devices is still a gamble (like Bing was a gamble), but it isn't the key piece of the strategy. Honestly, the cloud financial model should be a lot more predictable. If you're scared of change, stop investing in technology -- or go invest with Mr. Buffet in IBM. The important thing is the financials appear strong, and customers are buying into the strategy. Heck, even the naysayers about Surface & Lumia got a tiny wakeup call that maybe, just maybe, the game isn't ever totally over.

    As to the financials, I simply don't buy your arguments one bit -- and I did give them a fair shot -- it's just that you don't understand the transition taking place here. If you said exactly the same things about Amazon (where financials don't look this great), you'd be laughed at. You ignored a lot, and you clearly don't know the effort involved to get here. Like most technology commenters, you've never even written the tiniest application, much less a complex operating system or the sheer intellectual property it takes to produce the phone you take for granted each day. You want Apple to produce a touch-friendly version of OSX, but really have no idea of the impact to financials that would have? Would the cost exceed the return? Would millions of iPad users suddenly become OSX users? If companies haven't switched to OSX yet, why would they do so just for touch? Maybe there's more than that at play?

    But, as always, if you're letting your loyalties drive your investments...well, sorry when you miss out. As for me, I'll own good companies no matter what the hype says. If that means owning both - or neither, that's what I'll do.

    Even though opinions vary, I wish contributors here had the same sense of responsibility.
    Jan 29, 2016. 05:13 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Microsoft Overvalued?  [View article]
    Agreed. Cloud is a game changer. It means the financials will look much, much different. Expect to see more CapEx and more OpEx.

    I'm starting to agree with Mr Bazos in principle, if not in practice. If the top line grows, if the cash flow grows, if customer retention high and churn low, then this is more important than looking at gross P/E.
    Jan 29, 2016. 08:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Has Stopped The Enterprise Bleeding  [View article]
    @Ray: you betcha, he's been a negative Nancy for a while. Wonder what changed his tune? Oh well. He's a herd follower I guess?
    Jan 28, 2016. 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sony: The Clear Winner In The Console War  [View article]
    Why is this an either - or? And why does it matter if PS is 12% of SNE and even less of a percentage of MSFT.

    If you're bullish on SNE, write an article about the whole. No discussion about how they're positioned against cord cutting, shrinking electronics margins, etc.
    Jan 18, 2016. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend ETFs Duke It Out: Individual Holdings Comparison  [View article]
    Oct 30, 2015. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend ETFs Duke It Out: Individual Holdings Comparison  [View article]
    My favorite for years has been DVY. Slightly higher expenses at 0.4 (still not bad), but total return averaging 13.94% for 3 years. But I am younger than some dividend investors and I wanted a balance of dividends + growth. I also was looking for exposure to stocks I don't already outright own -- which is a lot of the ones mentioned above.
    Oct 29, 2015. 10:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: I Love The New Products, But As A Dividend Growth Investor I Cannot Buy The Stock  [View article]
    Earnings growth was at 25% during the early 2000s, but look at the stock. Looking at one number without looking at it's rate of change or other factors can be dangerous. You certainly looked at other inputs, but didn't factor them very high. I look forward to your deeper financial analysis.

    I do think that the after hours pricing may not stand long, but with the economy improving and most cylinders firing, the days of $39-41 shares may be impossible for the near term. I suspect the best time to buy was during the market over-correction, lots of value then, will be harder to find after this earnings season, methinks.
    Oct 22, 2015. 05:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: Intel-Less iPad Pro Is Not Yet A Threat To The Surface  [View article]
    The Windows kernel is multi-platform, but requires that Microsoft do a lot of platform specific work in the form of a HAL. Win32 is multi-platform, but requires developers to recompile their app for each platform. Win32 is not mobile friendly, however, so Microsoft decided that Win32 on an ARM processor would lead to a degraded experience (first nail for ARM). The fact that full Office except Outlook runs beautifully on Surface RT is a testament to that. However, the Surface RT simple wasn't cheaper or faster than Intel offerings which came out soon after (final nail). My Dell Venue Pro 8 (best tablet ever) runs circles around my Surface RT, at a cheaper price point, and only 18 months later release date. So yeah, Intel caught up in ways that matter.
    Now, most .NET apps can be written as processor agnostic. Additionally, XAML and MVVM allows separation of the app code from the app interface. So, now it is very easy to write apps that work great on the desktop with a mouse and work great on a tablet with touch, and a phone with a smaller screen. Of course, one has to be motivated to do so, as porting an existing app to this requires effort. So many desktop only type apps may not go this route. Additionally, many WP developers who don't care about a desktop differentiated experience may now target the platform by using the technologies Microsoft is enabling for mobile developers. But for app devs who want both, a single code base should be a worthwhile investment. Regardless, Windows is here to stay, and keeping Phone and Xbox viable now requires less effort and less throw-away code. Investments in one translate across, something which should have been the case from the start.
    As for RT, while I don't see a future there, WP still runs on ARM, as do other versions of Windows, including RP2, etc. In IOT, this is a big deal. Also, it may eventually mean servers running ARM with .NET code, who knows? Microsoft definitely missed the mark, but most of that wasn't due to technology... it was business strategy and execution. In the meantime, everything got better from the experience of RT... better browser, better app store, better servicing, etc.
    Sep 7, 2015. 09:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: Intel-Less iPad Pro Is Not Yet A Threat To The Surface  [View article]
    As a reminder, Windows has run on many platforms over the years - actually started on DEC Alpha.

    The code behind the APIs may or may not have been mobile friendly, but I can tell you that the Win32 API itself had zero mobile friendliness. Meaning things you'd expect from a mobile platform (being able to suspend an app gracefully, etc.) didn't exist. Win32 APIs being 20+ years old, and my first "laptop" being something that was 30 pounds with a 30 minute battery life... Win32 isn't dead, mind you, because the desktop isn't dead. But that's not necessarily where new investment is.

    Windows (Embedded) ran on ARM long before the Surface RT (and still does). Surface RT was a good exercise in so many ways. Maybe less from a business perspective, because as it turned out, there wasn't much market left for a tablet that didn't run Win32 apps, particularly given: iOS and Android had a huge head start (no advantage there); people figured if they were going to run Windows they might as well be able to run Win32 apps; Win32 apps wouldn't have worked very well on ARM without a fair amount of work (Office works great, but it was a bit more effort than hitting recompile); Microsoft didn't let anyone try to run Win32 apps; Intel finally got competitive in battery life and SOC/graphics capabilities.

    Even if no Windows ARM tablet is ever made again, I believe that having a single Kernel, single API for phone & everything else, and being an ARM licensee is a good thing for Microsoft -- actually it's more than a good thing, it's really about the only option at this point. It's a bit of a shame it took so long, especially given that Microsoft was once the only name in smartphones. I do agree that if they had gone the Apple route and started a new OS in the early 2000s -- or if there had been incremental improvements to Win32 to make it mobile/touch/device friendly without a complete reset, things might look different. But it is no longer the early 2000s, and the new strategy does make good technical sense at this point.

    Also, failures are sometimes what makes a technology company stronger. Do you think iPhone was Apple's first attempt at mobile? iOS may have only been possible because of the lessons learned from Newton and earlier failures.
    Sep 6, 2015. 09:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: Intel-Less iPad Pro Is Not Yet A Threat To The Surface  [View article]
    There's so much fanboy speak on both sides of this typical Apple vs. MSFT nonsense, but I do have to speak up on this particular one.

    "Apple apps" (if there is such a thing) are no more processor agnostic than Windows apps. The move from PPC to x86 was anything but painless. Now, Apple did a pretty good job of maintaining API compatibility, something which Microsoft purposefully did not do with Windows RT devices. We can split hairs over whether Win32 APIs and application support should have gone to ARM or not (either way, I think ARM was doomed from the start) -- it wasn't a question of technical feasibility, simply that - like MacOS vs iOS, the APIs weren't mobile/battery power friendly, and Microsoft decided that new APIs were better than a degraded user experience. Kudos for that, even if it meant sales suffered.

    In fact, most development on Windows in recent years has moved to .NET, which *is* processor agnostic, like Java. I'm not aware of any language Apple has created which is processor agnostic.

    The issue of x86 vs ARM is much more complex than choice of favorite OS or favorite company or even favorite apps. Bottom line, ARM has nailed what most people need most of the time. But Intel still has the upper hand in pure processing power. If nothing changes, Intel would still run on every cloud back end and ARM might run every "personal" device (perhaps except higher end desktops which ARM has made zero inroads). Truth is, neither ARM nor Intel will rest and be happy with that outcome.
    Sep 4, 2015. 06:02 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Windows 10 Shaping Up To Be A Disaster For Microsoft Shareholders?  [View article]

    And I for one have 3 machines running Windows 10 with no issues like Mr. (troll) Gordon Kelly keeps trying to beat the gong about.
    Aug 10, 2015. 01:01 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's Historic Turnabout In The Internet Of Things  [View article]
    What is odd here is Dana isn't the only "journalist" who is picking up on this "news" in the past few days. Only, it was announced back in November. An "investigative" journalist (if not extinct) might have picked up on this tidbit a year ago when AllJoyn announced that Microsoft was joining the alliance as a premier member. And anyone following Microsoft developer and trade news probably might have seen this coming for a while. Although MSFT hasn't gotten much press in the IoT space, it's clear they're trying to be a player.
    Jun 8, 2015. 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's Historic Turnabout In The Internet Of Things  [View article]
    <sarcasm>No way anyone would want to use Hololens to "interface with the Internet of Things."</sarcasm>

    Dana should change his name to Dino.
    Jun 8, 2015. 12:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment