This is no dog and pony show. The AELB accepts Lynas' application and it meets their standards but they want to give every chance for the public to voice any concerns. If anyone can point out non-compliance with the regulations, I am sure the AELB will respond accordingly. Personally, I doubt there will be any non-compliance, but if there is any, we should know about it before the 20th.
Rain- In a previous statement by AELB, they said the applications would be reviewed by the appropriate authorities. Once that process was complete and the application accepted, the document would be put on display for public comment. It's still a bit unclear (to me at least) what further steps must be taken for the issuance of the POL, but it does mean the applications have passed muster from a technical standpoint.
I know I have been ranting about this, but I would like to see an explanation from the coy explaining the process and where we are in the process.
Adding further confusion to the whole thing, I have two links with direct quotes from the AELB spokesperson. One (http://bit.ly/vaHHbg) says “People who want to comment on the document have to submit a form provided at the locations before noon on January 20,” she said in a statement. The other (http://bit.ly/vlTYVS) says: “Those who want to comment on the document have to submit a form available at the locations by noon on January17,” she in a statement. So it would "appear" that the deadline for comments would be sometime between the noon on 17th and noon on the 20th!
Hi Everyone- Some progress from Malaysia...(http://bit.ly/vlTYVS). Lynas' applications will be on display and comments accepted until the 17th. This is good news and good progress.
Aqwert, Lynas has made no announcement on a projected date for the permit. They are reluctant after having had their wrist slapped earlier for making statements and preempting the process. My GUESS (and there are many others with differing views) is that we will hear something within the next two weeks. The AELB website says expected time frames for approval are in the order of 3 to 6 months for most licenses. The process started last May with a few iterations of submissions, with final acceptance of the application around the beginning of October (I think so, at least...the coy announced the final paperwork had been submitted at the end of September in the quarterly report, and the AELB acknowledged receiving it soon after that (http://bit.ly/u3PXbf)). Also, the coy had said they expect to be earning money by the end of Q1 2012 and, given the ramp up time requirements (45-60 days) and ore shipping time frames (3 weeks), that would mean they need to be shipping within the next couple weeks. So, my theory is we either hear news that we are on track for the reported schedule (and that licenses are therefore in place) or we hear that we are not going to be earning money by Q1 and that we are delayed based upon the approval process taking longer than anticipated. Also, there is the issue of LAMP completion which we expect by the end of January. Hope that helps.
You know what, in these times of uncertainty, I find myself reading into the 'unsaid' more, or maybe just reading things closer than I normally would. I just re-read Gloria's email. When she says we are in the 'final stages of regulatory approval' maybe we should be more upbeat. Not to say it's imminent, and, as mentioned before, a 3 month time line still has 1 month to go, but, to me, if it were still 4 months away (which is the worst-case scenario, by my reading of things), I would not expect her to say 'final stage'. Fingers crossed, here's hoping for a happy new year, sooner rather than later!
While I'm at it, just want to pass along Best Holiday Wishes to all on this site. I really appreciate the open, honest, frank discussions. If I learn as much next year as I did this last one, I will be very happy. Cheers!
Egg (or is it Gregg)- Poor old Gloria. She's not in a very nice position at the moment. Must be hard for her. Anyway, I couldn't agree more with what you are saying. I just wrote a long-winded response to you, re-hashing what we have all been saying, but have now deleted it because it is only re-hashing what we've already said. I guess, other than asking the company, as we've done, what else can we do but wait? Bloody annoying. My guess is we just need to get through this next month. If there is no news by then, the noise will start to get really loud and they will have to say something. Maybe I'll head up to Mt Weld over these coming holidays and look through the fence at all my $$$'s sitting there. That's sure to make me feel better!
Chi- With due respect, I think we all need to step back a bit. Believe me, I share your frustration! On the other hand, I suspect the Malaysian gov't would probably tell us that we should be upset with NC's bullish timelines, rather than their slow progress, and frankly, at this stage, I would agree. The AELB site has explained how long it takes to process the applications for licenses and, I believe, we are still inside those time frames.
I am beating a dead horse here, but, really shouldn't we expect more detailed info from NC at this stage? I would like to know when the clock started on the AELB approval process and how long that process will take including and what will be any intermediate signs of progress. I'd also like to know when the construction is the critical path item and when the licenses are.
In short, I would like to know when I should start to worry and when I should be upset by delays (and who I should be upset with if that happens). At the moment, I am in the dark on the whole process and would appreciate clarification. My own opinion, at this stage, is that it is early to be chastising the AELB (and/or gov't).
Thanks Mercy- Great input. FYI, I did contact Lynas IR and asked if there was any plan (or mechanism) to amalgamate the two and was told currently no plan to do so (and, as far as she knew, no mechanism to do so). That was a little over 1 month ago.
Hi Ungawah- Yeah, I was wondering the same thing. Does anyone know of any other stock that has traded in two places like this? I'm surprised there is no mechanism to amalgamate the two.
Good on ya, Eggwis- I agree we don't want to pee in anyone's breakfast food at the moment. Mind you, if they don't update shareholders and 7 months turns out to be true, she'll be hearing worse. I do wonder if the buoyant sp is helping the company stand pat on this at the moment, though.
Hi Eggwis- I could have saved you the trouble! I emailed IR last week and got a message "Lynas is aware of the article and is not prepared to comment on the interpretive journalism of a publication.". I thought, fair enough, the report was not a direct quote, so, Lynas won't comment (or clarify) the statement. In addition, I thought, I trust this company and their project management. If they believe the license will be granted prior to completion of the LAMP in early 2012 (as stated, twice, in the 1 Nov conf call) that's what we have to go on. Presumably, if there is a change to this (and NC's statement in that call that they expect to have product to sell by the end of Q1 2012), it would be considered material to the share price and they would update us accordingly. Personally, when I look at the AELB's time frames for license approvals, I am a little sceptical, but, hey, what do I know?
My read of the penultimate paragraph is: 1) it is not a direct quote and could have been mis-interpreted or mis-reported or mis-translated. 2) it could possibly simply be a statement that Lynas has sent the docs in and they were received officially 4 weeks ago, but the process of the documents being submitted and accepted has been taking place over the past 7 months.
Obviously, clarification of the above is in order.
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, January 3, 2012 [View instapost]
http://bit.ly/zTA7AK
This is no dog and pony show. The AELB accepts Lynas' application and it meets their standards but they want to give every chance for the public to voice any concerns. If anyone can point out non-compliance with the regulations, I am sure the AELB will respond accordingly. Personally, I doubt there will be any non-compliance, but if there is any, we should know about it before the 20th.
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Dec. 19, 2011 [View instapost]
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Dec. 19, 2011 [View instapost]
I know I have been ranting about this, but I would like to see an explanation from the coy explaining the process and where we are in the process.
Adding further confusion to the whole thing, I have two links with direct quotes from the AELB spokesperson. One (http://bit.ly/vaHHbg) says “People who want to comment on the document have to submit a form provided at the locations before noon on January 20,” she said in a statement.
The other (http://bit.ly/vlTYVS) says: “Those who want to comment on the document have to submit a form available at the locations by noon on January17,” she in a statement.
So it would "appear" that the deadline for comments would be sometime between the noon on 17th and noon on the 20th!
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Dec. 19, 2011 [View instapost]
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Dec. 19, 2011 [View instapost]
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Dec. 19, 2011 [View instapost]
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Dec. 19, 2011 [View instapost]
Lynas has made no announcement on a projected date for the permit. They are reluctant after having had their wrist slapped earlier for making statements and preempting the process. My GUESS (and there are many others with differing views) is that we will hear something within the next two weeks. The AELB website says expected time frames for approval are in the order of 3 to 6 months for most licenses. The process started last May with a few iterations of submissions, with final acceptance of the application around the beginning of October (I think so, at least...the coy announced the final paperwork had been submitted at the end of September in the quarterly report, and the AELB acknowledged receiving it soon after that (http://bit.ly/u3PXbf)). Also, the coy had said they expect to be earning money by the end of Q1 2012 and, given the ramp up time requirements (45-60 days) and ore shipping time frames (3 weeks), that would mean they need to be shipping within the next couple weeks. So, my theory is we either hear news that we are on track for the reported schedule (and that licenses are therefore in place) or we hear that we are not going to be earning money by Q1 and that we are delayed based upon the approval process taking longer than anticipated. Also, there is the issue of LAMP completion which we expect by the end of January. Hope that helps.
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Dec. 9, 2011 [View instapost]
While I'm at it, just want to pass along Best Holiday Wishes to all on this site. I really appreciate the open, honest, frank discussions. If I learn as much next year as I did this last one, I will be very happy. Cheers!
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Dec. 9, 2011 [View instapost]
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Dec. 9, 2011 [View instapost]
With due respect, I think we all need to step back a bit. Believe me, I share your frustration! On the other hand, I suspect the Malaysian gov't would probably tell us that we should be upset with NC's bullish timelines, rather than their slow progress, and frankly, at this stage, I would agree. The AELB site has explained how long it takes to process the applications for licenses and, I believe, we are still inside those time frames.
I am beating a dead horse here, but, really shouldn't we expect more detailed info from NC at this stage? I would like to know when the clock started on the AELB approval process and how long that process will take including and what will be any intermediate signs of progress. I'd also like to know when the construction is the critical path item and when the licenses are.
In short, I would like to know when I should start to worry and when I should be upset by delays (and who I should be upset with if that happens). At the moment, I am in the dark on the whole process and would appreciate clarification. My own opinion, at this stage, is that it is early to be chastising the AELB (and/or gov't).
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Nov. 30, 2011 [View instapost]
Great input. FYI, I did contact Lynas IR and asked if there was any plan (or mechanism) to amalgamate the two and was told currently no plan to do so (and, as far as she knew, no mechanism to do so). That was a little over 1 month ago.
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Nov. 30, 2011 [View instapost]
Yeah, I was wondering the same thing. Does anyone know of any other stock that has traded in two places like this? I'm surprised there is no mechanism to amalgamate the two.
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Nov. 30, 2011 [View instapost]
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Nov. 30, 2011 [View instapost]
I could have saved you the trouble! I emailed IR last week and got a message "Lynas is aware of the article and is not prepared to comment on the interpretive journalism of a publication.". I thought, fair enough, the report was not a direct quote, so, Lynas won't comment (or clarify) the statement. In addition, I thought, I trust this company and their project management. If they believe the license will be granted prior to completion of the LAMP in early 2012 (as stated, twice, in the 1 Nov conf call) that's what we have to go on. Presumably, if there is a change to this (and NC's statement in that call that they expect to have product to sell by the end of Q1 2012), it would be considered material to the share price and they would update us accordingly. Personally, when I look at the AELB's time frames for license approvals, I am a little sceptical, but, hey, what do I know?
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Nov. 30, 2011 [View instapost]
1) it is not a direct quote and could have been mis-interpreted or mis-reported or mis-translated.
2) it could possibly simply be a statement that Lynas has sent the docs in and they were received officially 4 weeks ago, but the process of the documents being submitted and accepted has been taking place over the past 7 months.
Obviously, clarification of the above is in order.