Seeking Alpha

Hypnos7

Hypnos7
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Hypnos7's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Texas Hold 'Em Tournaments And Value Investing [View article]
    One could argue that trading has more in common with tournament poker than value investing, in that it is almost completely a zero-sum game, and one relies on tells to gain EV. The big difference is that it's relatively impersonal, in that you are looking at charts than at people's faces.
    Apr 1 10:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Rally Seems Pre-Planned [View instapost]
    Poppity pop pop ...
    Mar 25 10:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Do Hedge Funds Do? [View instapost]
    There are of course many strategies employed by hedge funds -- this kind of fundamental research is one of them.
    Feb 12 10:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fitch warns that a failure to avert the fiscal cliff will increase the likelihood that it will strip the U.S. of its AAA rating. Falling over the edge "would exacerbate rather than diminish the uncertainty over fiscal policy, and tip the US into an avoidable and unnecessary recession," Fitch says in its 2013 global outlook. [View news story]
    The power of rating agencies to state the obvious is remarkable.
    Dec 19 06:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading An Index-Tracking ETF/Inverse ETF Pair May Yield Solid Results  [View instapost]
    KO,

    Thank you for your detailed reply. I see the following risk in your approach:

    2008 was a huge trending year, and since then the market action has been heavily influenced by Fed policy. Given the specificity of your market setups (16 rules w/ up to 7 parameters each) even a slight change in the character of the market (e.g., change in Fed policy) could drastically reduce their effectiveness.

    I would encourage you to backtest your model much further back -- there are low-cost ways to obtain daily US market data for several decades. If your model behaves well through several business cycles and Fed policy epochs, then you will have falsified my concern and be more confident that the model will perform in the future (there are no guarantees, of course!).


    Cheers,

    H7
    Nov 27 05:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading An Index-Tracking ETF/Inverse ETF Pair May Yield Solid Results  [View instapost]
    The performance of your model over the backtesting period is very impressive at 38% average annual gain without leverage. Two questions:

    1) How does the model do prior to 2008? To only test back to 2008 presumes that there was a phase change in the market at that point, and the market going forward will be consistent with this phase.

    2) How many parameters do you have in your model, and how does this compare to the number of trends during your backtesting period? If they are comparable, it is easy to engineer a model which catches all the trends in a given period, but may fail to do so going forward; that is, fall prey to overfitting.

    Thank you for sharing your thoughts.
    Nov 26 07:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • President Obama will go into budget negotiations with Congressional leaders on Friday calling for a $1.6T increase in tax revenues over 10 years, double the $800B discussed during debt-ceiling talks in 2011. The sides are sticking to their guns over tax hikes for the rich, while the GOP also want entitlement changes. Obama is due to today meet a who's who of top CEOs, including those of Wal-Mart, IBM and Ford. [View news story]
    Sequestration would be a coup for the left wing -- Bush tax cuts would expire, defense funding would get slashed, entitlements would remain untouched.

    The liberal caucus ate the Republicans' lunch on this one ... they hold all the cards. Obama is even against it.
    Nov 14 06:29 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can They Spare A Penny A Click For International Coverage? [View instapost]
    I can't comment on SA's profit model, but it seems odd that they would not incentivize writers to find new investing opportunities for their readers. "Seeking Alpha" is its name, no?
    Nov 13 08:52 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back At The Desk, Wednesday, October 3, 2012 - Short Term Update [View instapost]
    You mean "bull trap" in your penultimate sentence, no?
    Oct 4 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The middle class suffered its "worst decade in modern history" in the 10 years ending in 2010, falling backward in income for the first time since World War II, a new Pew Research study says. In 1970, the share of U.S. income going to the middle class was 62%, while the wealthy received 29%; by 2010, the middle class took 45% of total income, vs. 46% for upper-income Americans. [View news story]
    Unfunded liabilities and demographics are real problems. Better to concentrate on those than made up ones.
    Aug 22 11:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The middle class suffered its "worst decade in modern history" in the 10 years ending in 2010, falling backward in income for the first time since World War II, a new Pew Research study says. In 1970, the share of U.S. income going to the middle class was 62%, while the wealthy received 29%; by 2010, the middle class took 45% of total income, vs. 46% for upper-income Americans. [View news story]
    "The fraud by those stealing from the middle class, through phony food stamps, unemployment, disability fraud , etc, is 10 times worse than any Wall Street fraud. "

    Then you know what the numbers are for these, to arrive at that ratio?
    Aug 22 08:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • May. Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment: 79.3 vs. 77.8 expected and 77.8 prior.  [View news story]
    And we know how awesome things turned out after Oct. 2007.
    May 25 11:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BOJ governor Shirakawa says the bank is committed to easing, but won't do so solely to weaken the yen. Shirakawa adds the "biggest factor affecting currency moves now is investors' risk aversion," and there's no evidence that an expanded monetary base will weaken the currency. Currently: USD -0.13% to ¥79.36.  [View news story]
    I love how the currency market tells the BOJ to go eff itself.
    May 24 04:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Japanese utilities plan to increase fees for peak-hour electricity usage in an effort to head off possible power shortages this summer following the closure of the nation's nuclear power plants. Starting in June rates for some power plants will be four to six times higher during the peak hours of 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. than those for night time hours.  [View news story]
    People will just make sure to be at the mall in the afternoon using their A/C instead of at home running theirs. Stimulus!
    May 21 10:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "The risks  of contagion for other countries of the eurozone have been reduced," says German finmin Schauble, making the case the EU could handle a Greek departure. Schauble may be the most senior official to publicly entertain such an idea - quite a departure from the assured Armageddon described by policymakers for the last 2 years.  [View news story]
    For him to mention it means that it is imminent -- trying to soften the psychological blow in the markets.
    May 11 04:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
141 Comments
141 Likes