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DougTheHed

DougTheHed
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  • Caterpillar: Is This A Breakout Or Will The Stock Fall Back To $85? [View article]
    The title suggests a technical move in the stock, yet the analysis covers debt load...what do the two have to do with each other?

    It is suggested the breakout will fail because the market doesn't understand CAT's debt?

    Price pays. How about saying the breakout will not hold if price falls below ~$95 swing low on the weekly chart. Stories and fundamentals are nice, but I can't take the story to the bank.
    Apr 20, 2014. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan Is A Solid Pick [View article]
    You're focusing on the wrong thing here. Indoesian ban, cheaper gold prices, blah blah...makes for a good story but the important thing is that price doesn't seem to care about these concerns. There are always concerns surrounding a stock or company, but it's only if price considers those concerns a legitimate threat, that it matters. You can have all the fundamental baggage in the word surrounding a company, but if the stock price is going up, you are making money. Not much more complicated than that. You can bog yourself down with trying to figure out what the Indonesian government wil do, but ultimately the share price will tell you what you need to know
    Jan 10, 2014. 02:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems Is Overvalued At Current Price Levels [View article]
    We don't need to hate on all the "overvaluation"...if people just followed what price was saying they would have made out well instead of pouring over financial records and models. In general I believe (at least for my investment style) fundamentals follow price and one can make a lot more money with far less risk simply following bullish price action in stocks. Aapl is a perfect example of how using price can set you up better than fundamentals, as the last 33% drop and subsequent "safe" 20% rally out of the base support has shown. DDD has been similar, where if you know how to trade simple base level breakouts, you would be feeling fat...like me : )
    Dec 7, 2013. 11:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems Is Overvalued At Current Price Levels [View article]
    Ha, DDD has been "overvalued" for at least the last double in share price...price pays, everything else is noise. Glad I follow price and not nuts-o fundies
    Dec 6, 2013. 08:53 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Breaks Out [View article]
    I still think it's funny how the fundie guys here are still going on and on about aapl...y'all been ranting about the numbers for the last year. Fundies are fun, stories are nice, price pays

    How is that fat unrealized loss treating all you balance sheet guys? Or you could have just sold the $645 breakdown and bought the $465 double bottom trigger and been sitting fat and happy
    Nov 27, 2013. 01:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Breaks Out [View article]
    Something that no one is talking about during this rally from the lows is the double bottom formation that was setup from the April and June lows...today shares acquired that $544 target. This is also the 50% retracement from the highs, as well as a multi year inflection point going back through 2012. I reduced my positions In half on today's pop. I see the obvious breakout of course and that's why I still like to let this run, but don't over look the fact that the key reversal target was acquired today
    Nov 27, 2013. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long 3D Systems Corp [View article]
    Just a comment on Fundies...Good to glance at but pointless to obey. Take AAPL, GOOG, and AMZN. AAPL has roughly some of the most excellent financials around and is considered cheap as a general rule. What's the stock done over the past year? Lose roughly half of its share price. Fundamentals stayed the same (roughly). GOOG and AMZN are arguably two of the most expensive of the XLK's top 10 using O'Shaughnessy's basic method of a composite valuation metric (P/E, P/S, P/BV, P/CF, EBITDA/EV, Shareholder yield) yet are also the top relative strength stocks in the XLK.

    Everyone knows DDD is expensive, you pay for growth. Price pays and Fundamentals make good stories. All the naysayers here mention the validity of whether anyone will want to have a 3D printer or the relative convenience of the device. All arguing about a cool, futuristic story. Stocks and companies are two very different things. You will never know the exact details and accuracy of financial data as it is often manipulated for the betterment of EPS results. But you can pick up a chart and with one glance can see how all the strategies and opinions are put together representing the market value of the asset in question. Price doesn't lie, its all right there.

    Long DDD, as Price suggests higher prices to come.
    Jul 19, 2013. 08:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel (INTC): Q1 EPS of $0.40 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $12.58B (-2.5% Y/Y) misses by $30M. Expects Q2 revenue of $12.4B-$13.4B vs. $12.9B consensus. Expects "low single-digit" 2013 revenue growth, unchanged from prior guidance and compares with 0.7% consensus. Lowers 2013 capex guidance range by $1B to $11.5B-$12.5B. Shares +2.1% AH. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR[View news story]
    Cnbc needs panic and uncertainty for survival... Why do you think they push it so hard?
    Apr 16, 2013. 11:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Most People Should Neither Trade Nor Try To Analyze Apple's Stock [View article]
    Not sure what all the fuss is over the fundamentals and customer service is about. How has that paid you over the past 6 months? Following a simple trend line will keep on the right side of the market. Who cares how many phones they sell or iPads, or whatever. As long as the market doesn't care, neither should you. Or you can just keep your heads in the sand and pretend its not happening, meanwhile the rest of the market is ripping and the aapl "fans" are being taken to wood shed. Are you trying to make money or do enjoy your little story that much that its worth losing all your money? No doubt the company is a monster and valuations are low, but does your broker account care what the PE is?

    Get out when the trend breaks and get back in when it breaks the other way...not too tough
    Apr 13, 2013. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Most People Should Neither Trade Nor Try To Analyze Apple's Stock [View article]
    I'm very glad I choose to "trade" AAPL. That got me out of the stock at $645 and now I have taken a small position at $440. I plan to add on a breakout above $480 and will stop out on a close below $419...You guys can just buy and hope all you want. I'm going to use some risk management.
    Apr 11, 2013. 06:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Still Spells Trouble To Me [View article]
    I just enjoy seeing how much negativity is baked into this stock. it went from 30+ to 21 for a reason and all of this banter is already in the price. there are so many shorts in this that if we break this handle formation at 26 this thing is going to spike as the shorts get squeezed. I treat CHK as a trading stock for now. wait until Nat Gas starts to become a little more useful in autos and then maybe a longer term holding...but for now this thing has formed a 5.5 measured move cup/handle pattern. bought some this morning after it bounced off of roughly the 50 DMA and am going to add on a break of 26.
    Mar 7, 2012. 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Lightning Round - Peabody Is Getting Cheaper by the Day (6/15/11) [View article]
    agreed to all. Its not too tough to see that these Agency-REITs are directly impacted by interest rate changes. Look at the historical US interest rates and the charts for AGNC and NLY are almost a perfect inverse. When rates are high, these stocks are down and vice versa.

    Also, come on Cramer! A simple look at this will tell you these companies have to redistribute 90% of their revenue back to shareholders to maintain their tax levels.

    Its not very often you see a stock with such a predictable indicator that directly corresponds to its price. Interest rates will tell you what you need to know to own these.

    I am Long NLY and AGNC
    Jun 16, 2011. 08:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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