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  • Short Sprint As AT&T Cuts Prices [View article]
    I guess the authors advice turned out to be sub-optimal (lol). I think people got the idea that Sprint did it's most recent layoff because the numbers were poor. Apparently not.
    MSF - $25 is a tad too rich. I saw $12 pre-Softbank, and now think $16 to $18. If they try to merge with TMob, that would lower my estimate by $2-3, or if the fight becomes prolonged $3-$4. However, USCellular could actually be accretive - Probably add $1-$3.
    Feb 11 09:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Sprint has second thoughts about T-Mobile deal [View news story]
    This is good news. Sprint can't dominate this industry with the baggage of digesting T-Mobile.
    Feb 10 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: A Proposed Strategy For Income And Growth [View article]
    Really nice article. Thanks for sharing all that work.
    Feb 5 08:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: FCC's Wheeler skeptical about Sprint/T-Mobile deal [View news story]
    If only we knew what Hesse knows. Why would Sprint want to merge with TMob anyway? It must have to do with Real Estate.
    Feb 4 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Annaly & mREITs Are No Longer 2014 Safe Havens [View article]
    People need houses! They'll buy them when the economy is good and rent them when it's not. Populations are not shrinking. In the long term, investing money to help others buy homes is a winning strategy, but has always been bumpy. NLY has been a good steward of that capital and Denny has transitioned in nicely, so, in my mind, this is a perfect vehicle for such investments.
    Jan 28 11:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Annaly & mREITs Are No Longer 2014 Safe Havens [View article]
    Adrian is right! The stock and book might be affected by interest rates, but the dividend is affected by the spread. Stable (or slowly rising) interest rates and a normal spread mean 1) manageable prepays, 2) predictable income, and 3) lower hedging costs. While the environment last quarter had a good spread, interest rates were unpredictable and high, so book was driven down and hedges up. NLY book was as silly in Q4-13 as it was in Q4-12 - just the inverse.
    Whatever tomorrow holds, NLY will be a reliable income producer and a lousy (or great) speculative investment for the bold and poor.
    Jan 28 11:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: A Funny Thing Happened After Tapering [View article]
    Fair analysis. The considerable price appreciation is only true because of the silliness of investors, or rather, prior considerable price depreciation. It is not fundamental to an mREIT. No matter to me - your payout numbers are what this 'security' is really about. The very rare inflection points where the yield curves might invert are easily hedged by smart managers. Beyond that, NLY is, and has been fundamentally risk free. In the past, RS has looked at this as if it were a bond. That's understandable, but it is not a bond at all, yet it is neither like an equity. It is most like an interest bearing bank account - subject to similar risks and rewards, but both improved by skilled financial management (A risk too).

    Annaly has now survived two serious (sic) crises.
    Jan 21 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprint: Focus On Mobile Data Leadership Instead Of Integration Headaches [View article]
    Couldn't agree more.
    Jan 21 07:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At A Decade-Long Low, Annaly Capital Management May Be A Buy [View article]
    Barney Frank - that's funny!

    Well, FNMA and GNMA are similar entities, are they not, and they're performing quite well for the taxpayer now that the dust is settling?

    That said, I agree with you. Still, the mortgage markets need to be in private hands, and so far, in US history, that has not really happened successfully. I think that the MREITs could be a viable alternative to the agencies to provide a liquid mortgage market. It might be more conservative than the NMAs and Barney, circa 2004, would like, but I think it needs to be. If the MREITs can create liquid, private markets for securitized mortgages, which the banks could not do in the 1930's and the NMA's could not do in the 2000's, maybe we've figured out a way to solve an fairly intractable problem.

    Then again, it might be same ol same ol, except we'll need another 60-some-odd years to find out.
    Dec 30 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At A Decade-Long Low, Annaly Capital Management May Be A Buy [View article]
    As long as the yield curve does not invert, sure! And even if it does, hedging cover things as long as the duration is short. If the duration is long, none of this matters anyway - there are bigger problems - and it's back to the barter system and black markets.

    But I do get your point. The fact that it's an emotional reaction makes it no less real - and I get that.
    Dec 30 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • T-Mobile might take aim at termination fees, pressure AT&T/Verizon's margins [View news story]
    McCormack may have concerns, but to the well-capitalized first mover, that is the only way to seize opportunity and advantage.
    Dec 27 07:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TIBCO's Return To License Growth Frustratingly Inconsistent [View article]
    As Tibco's customer base works hard to gain analytics capability, open source solutions create enormous challenges to business models. I think this is an area where services execution may be more important than sales execution in the product sense. That said, Spotfire is cool.
    Dec 20 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • At A Decade-Long Low, Annaly Capital Management May Be A Buy [View article]
    Three things happen with rising interest rates. First, spreads increase. That assumes the short rates are relativly fixed, which i think we all agree on. Second, buyers become shy and new mortgages slow. I think that is also self-evident. Lastly, NAVs shrink, which is not directly observable, but is a derivative action of CAPM. I get CAPM in the bond markets, but not here. Excluding opportunity cost, whose effect is understood, why would a rise in the long rates effect a contract (mortgage) with a fixed rate? Aren't most Annaly holdings fixed rate?

    I simply can't reconcile this drop with what seems obvious nor with the behavior of the managers.
    Dec 17 09:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Sprint And T-Mobile Join Forces? [View article]
    I still don't see accretive value in Sprint/TMobile, yet it looks like something is indeed happening. Some thoughts.

    1) Maybe there are geographical overlays that offer synergy and the idea of swapping stock, not cash, is attractive. And maybe that balances out the roaming fees paid to Verizon. Verizon is sure touting their better national footprint. Maybe Sprint feels they can't do it on Network Vision alone.

    2) Certainly the rapid rollout of LTE eliminates the network incompatibility issues, which are all in the RAN and have to do with 3G only. Still, my guess is that the bulk of their subs airtime is on 3G service and there are still plenty of 3G only phones in use. It still bothers me that Hesse or Son would pull another Nextel. I think that would be a big, big mistake.

    3) Money is still free. If you're going to do a deal, better hurry!

    4) Pricing is not even close to being competitive yet, but the FCC may be weighing the great good of building out the national infrastructure on the backs of investors and subscribers plus the tax revenues telecom fees generate, against causing the market to say 'uncle' or attracting truly disruptive competition.

    5) #4 notwithstanding, Google and Comcast still scare the %^* out of them all. Imagine a carrier that leveraged all the WiFi access points out there to provide mobile voice, video and data service for the cost of a phone plus a random ad popping up. That kills carrier revenues and taxes. The carriers better have plenty of low freq spectrum to keep their high-margin 'mobility' niche in a bigger broadband market. I wonder if a Sprint/TMob merger delivers on that?

    There are sure a lot of dynamics and probably political drivers we don't even know about. That said, in sum, there still doesn't appear to be a good enough reason for a merger.
    Dec 14 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Sprint And T-Mobile Join Forces? [View article]
    I guess the guys at CS are either not very good, or simply missed this one.
    Dec 14 10:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment