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AggGrow

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  • Avoid Annaly Capital [View article]
    On investors fleeing, I don't think so. I think it's clear that MREITs are the best income generators and Annaly is conservatively positioned and pays a relatively huge dividend. When Mike died and management tried to hide their compensation from investors, I split my MREIT portfolio between AGNC and NLY, and feel that was a wise diversification.

    This is not a good earnings report and I still worry about Welly's ability to execute, but there is nothing in this report that has me interested in remixing yet. LT, NLY has been a stellar performer.
    May 8, 2014. 11:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. mobile roundup: AT&T/T-Mobile cuts, Verizon strategy, SoftBank [View news story]
    And I just exited my Sprint position. Pleased about Saw but little else. Framily is going to annoy more subs than it attracts and despite all the new money, rollout is not happening fast enough. I fear the opportunity to leverage all that great spectrum is past.

    Still a sub, but may soon move to TMob. Also might go prepaid. It just irks me that they haven't capitalized on this Softbank thing. VZN is pulling ahead even faster.
    Mar 10, 2014. 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs Are The True Dividend Champions, And Safer Than You May Think [View article]
    So higher rates will lead to a poorer outcome? How does that work?
    Mar 6, 2014. 04:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors mull Annaly executive exits [View news story]
    @Tsachy - Maybe if it were one person, but two??? Very unlikely. More likely there's a management problem.

    @Schawel - Mike setup this whole thing and brought on ALL the actors. He had charisma, but his loss doesn't explain everything.
    Feb 14, 2014. 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Departures at Annaly manager [View news story]
    That can't be good.
    Feb 13, 2014. 04:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprint higher following Deutsche upgrade. Son says acquisition needed. [View news story]
    Forget TMobile! There are much more appropriate acquisition targets. US Cellular would be far easier to integrate. TMoble makes sense because it has a bigger presence in larger markets where Sprint has failed to deploy coverage, but the technology differences are so large as to make an integration a much more difficult and expensive proposition than a couple of smaller strategic rollups and a concentrated effort to finish the buildout. I bet there are big cultural issues too.
    Furthermore, I get the DoJ's position. Hesse should tell Son that you just can't set yourself on fire to get the DoJ to do something that goes against their mandate.
    Even without the DoJ, ARPU's are going to drop - they have to. Sprint needs to get off the idea that they can short circuit this by acquisition and get back on the Hesse execution trail while the gettin's good.
    Feb 12, 2014. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Sprint As AT&T Cuts Prices [View article]
    I guess the authors advice turned out to be sub-optimal (lol). I think people got the idea that Sprint did it's most recent layoff because the numbers were poor. Apparently not.
    MSF - $25 is a tad too rich. I saw $12 pre-Softbank, and now think $16 to $18. If they try to merge with TMob, that would lower my estimate by $2-3, or if the fight becomes prolonged $3-$4. However, USCellular could actually be accretive - Probably add $1-$3.
    Feb 11, 2014. 09:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Sprint has second thoughts about T-Mobile deal [View news story]
    This is good news. Sprint can't dominate this industry with the baggage of digesting T-Mobile.
    Feb 10, 2014. 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: A Proposed Strategy For Income And Growth [View article]
    Really nice article. Thanks for sharing all that work.
    Feb 5, 2014. 08:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: FCC's Wheeler skeptical about Sprint/T-Mobile deal [View news story]
    If only we knew what Hesse knows. Why would Sprint want to merge with TMob anyway? It must have to do with Real Estate.
    Feb 4, 2014. 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Annaly & mREITs Are No Longer 2014 Safe Havens [View article]
    People need houses! They'll buy them when the economy is good and rent them when it's not. Populations are not shrinking. In the long term, investing money to help others buy homes is a winning strategy, but has always been bumpy. NLY has been a good steward of that capital and Denny has transitioned in nicely, so, in my mind, this is a perfect vehicle for such investments.
    Jan 28, 2014. 11:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Annaly & mREITs Are No Longer 2014 Safe Havens [View article]
    Adrian is right! The stock and book might be affected by interest rates, but the dividend is affected by the spread. Stable (or slowly rising) interest rates and a normal spread mean 1) manageable prepays, 2) predictable income, and 3) lower hedging costs. While the environment last quarter had a good spread, interest rates were unpredictable and high, so book was driven down and hedges up. NLY book was as silly in Q4-13 as it was in Q4-12 - just the inverse.
    Whatever tomorrow holds, NLY will be a reliable income producer and a lousy (or great) speculative investment for the bold and poor.
    Jan 28, 2014. 11:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: A Funny Thing Happened After Tapering [View article]
    Fair analysis. The considerable price appreciation is only true because of the silliness of investors, or rather, prior considerable price depreciation. It is not fundamental to an mREIT. No matter to me - your payout numbers are what this 'security' is really about. The very rare inflection points where the yield curves might invert are easily hedged by smart managers. Beyond that, NLY is, and has been fundamentally risk free. In the past, RS has looked at this as if it were a bond. That's understandable, but it is not a bond at all, yet it is neither like an equity. It is most like an interest bearing bank account - subject to similar risks and rewards, but both improved by skilled financial management (A risk too).

    Annaly has now survived two serious (sic) crises.
    Jan 21, 2014. 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprint: Focus On Mobile Data Leadership Instead Of Integration Headaches [View article]
    Couldn't agree more.
    Jan 21, 2014. 07:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At A Decade-Long Low, Annaly Capital Management May Be A Buy [View article]
    Barney Frank - that's funny!

    Well, FNMA and GNMA are similar entities, are they not, and they're performing quite well for the taxpayer now that the dust is settling?

    That said, I agree with you. Still, the mortgage markets need to be in private hands, and so far, in US history, that has not really happened successfully. I think that the MREITs could be a viable alternative to the agencies to provide a liquid mortgage market. It might be more conservative than the NMAs and Barney, circa 2004, would like, but I think it needs to be. If the MREITs can create liquid, private markets for securitized mortgages, which the banks could not do in the 1930's and the NMA's could not do in the 2000's, maybe we've figured out a way to solve an fairly intractable problem.

    Then again, it might be same ol same ol, except we'll need another 60-some-odd years to find out.
    Dec 30, 2013. 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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