Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View AggGrow's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Methodology For Assessing Sustainability Of Annaly's 13.4% Dividend Yield [View article]
    I fail to see why they would implode. While there is a spread, there will be arbitrage and there will ALWAYS be a market. For a flattening curve, Annaly has already demonstrated that they won't go too far out of the risk line, unlike their competitors.

    I agree, however, that this is a political fiasco, gratis George W and Barney Frank, two of the finest of the breed. Saying that the bankers were not opportunistically complicit, however, devalues the rest of your analysis.

    Look, my principal is down from where I bought, but my yield is still almost 9%, based on the higher principal. Would I have bought lower - Sure! Would I have waited to buy lower? Not a chance! Will it go lower still? Possibly! Will it go higher? I have no doubt at all. Does that really matter? Not to me. It's the dividend that I care about, and I see it going higher. This is an NPV deal through and through.
    Aug 16 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: Risk To Future Dividend And Book Value Persist [View article]
    No, they'll back off at some point. They will have to. All the money out there will cause an even bigger bubble if it doesn't get sopped up. The FED has never had very good timing, but right now, all that excess liquidity is barely starting the economy, but when it does, it will zoom pretty fast, and they will have little choice but to pull back. I just hope they execute it well.

    Read Calculated Risk, He's not a genius, but he thinks very clearly and transparently. My favorite blog.
    Aug 15 10:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: Risk To Future Dividend And Book Value Persist [View article]
    OK, So I'm lost a bit here and need further clarification.

    The Spread is the difference between what they borrow at and what they lend at. If that spread increases, they make more money. If they make more money, they pay a higher dividend (all things being equal). If they pay a higher dividend, the book value rises.

    Bond Prices move inversely to rates - that's a given, but that is due to the fact that face value is fixed.

    So what am I missing? Why would NLY book value plunge 5% if 'spreads widen' .15%? Are you saying that the value of the holdings drop when the rates those holdings yield rise?
    Aug 15 10:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: Insiders Are Buying, Should You? [View article]
    Jeez! Read this:

    "For the quarter ended June 30, 2013, the annualized yield on average interest-earning assets was 2.51% and the annualized cost of funds on average interest-bearing liabilities, including the net interest payments on interest rate swaps, was 1.53%, which resulted in an average interest rate spread of 0.98%. This was a 7 basis point increase from the 0.91% average interest rate spread for the quarter ended March 31, 2013, and a 56 basis point decrease from the 1.54% average interest rate spread for the quarter ended June 30, 2012." Annaly's last earnings report

    and maybe this...

    "Long-term interest rates spiked in June because of worries that the Federal Reserve Bank would begin curtailing its asset-purchasing program later this year. Short-term interest rates remained unchanged because they are based on the federal funds rate, which the Fed has kept at near zero since the financial crisis. It has signaled that it plans to keep that rate near zero until unemployment is 6.5%." -

    There is NOTHING more you need to know between today and the next earnings report.

    Where do these PUNDITs get their ideas?
    Aug 15 06:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Methodology For Assessing Sustainability Of Annaly's 13.4% Dividend Yield [View article]
    Good Article Ron. The factors that you choose to deemphasize, however, are there to hedge against the downside, and tend to flatten the upside too, so I don't really think it's as conservative as you say. Although I agree with you on the sneaky deal they pushed through, I still think that they run more conservatively than the horde.
    Aug 13 01:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Methodology For Assessing Sustainability Of Annaly's 13.4% Dividend Yield [View article]
    Hi Frog;

    Having thought about it, I'd say the MREITs, obviously. Are you suggesting that short maturity paper yields the same as long maturity paper?
    Aug 13 01:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: Risk To Future Dividend And Book Value Persist [View article]
    I'm not sure what you're saying.

    1 - "However, the recent selloff in mortgages should yield lower gains going forward, creating pressure on the company's future dividends." How is that? I get the idea of a smaller pool, but what does this mean?

    2 - "an additional 15 bps spread widening would yield nearly 5% book value decline." Huh? How is spread widening bad?

    I'll stop here.
    Aug 13 01:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Affymetrix 'Sequencing' A Turnaround, Or Just A Devolving Genetic Anomaly? [View article]
    To add to your comments, many in the epigenetics space feel that the value in micro assay technology is all but wiped out by proton sequencing or many other techniques that are available from Illumina and LifeTech. Does this jibe with what you're hearing? Is it possible that AFFX has been working on some leapfrog technology?
    Aug 12 02:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly off marginally following earnings [View news story]
    I too added. Scared though. When you look at the obvious, it screams buy, but then you have to ask, why isn't it obvious to everyone? What am I missing?

    The thing that resonated loudest with me was the huge improvement in the spread. I'm starting to think that AGNC guy is the smartest of them all. NLY is playing it conservatively, but the facts are that the mortgage market couldn't possibly go lower. This is not the time for conservative bets.

    I guess if the fed reverses course completely, we'd be screwed, but then again, so would the fed. Can't see that being even a remote possibility.

    Other thoughts???

    Anyway, I'm down a dividend adjusted 15% and am totally cool with that. Giddy almost, but scared too.
    Aug 7 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Panicky selling grips the mortgage REITs (REM -3.5%) as Treasury yields soar following the payroll report. American Capital (AGNC -6.9%), (MTGE -5%), Annaly (NLY -6.9%) Chimera (CIM -4.9%), Armour (ARR -3.9%), Invesco (IVR -2.7%), CYS Investments (CYS -3%). CYS' Kevin Grant was public a month ago about being a happy buyer as yields rose - a bit early on that call. [View news story]
    Interesting. I wonder if there's an index that compares the divergence of the technicals to the fundamentals.
    Jul 5 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genetic sequencing pioneer Jonathan Rothberg resigns from Life Technologies (LIFE). Mr. Rothberg's resignation - which the company says was expected - comes as the company aims to complete a $13.6B merger with Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO). The sequencing machine business that Mr. Rothberg ran, Ion Torrent, represents a small percentage of Life's overall revenue, but was cited by Thermo Fisher as oneof the motivating factors behind the acquisition. [View news story]
    Jonathan was a bit iconic. His departure probably was expected, but probably disappointing to the marketers leveraging his cachet. Good news is that maybe he'll go off and do it again.
    Jun 27 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dish (DISH) is all but officially abandoning its bid for Sprint (S). In a fresh update, the satellite TV provider says the revised SoftBank (SFTBF.PK) deal makes it "impracticable" for it to submit a new offer by Sprint's June 18 deadline, and that it will now focus its "efforts and resources" on the Clearwire (CLWR) tender offer. It increasingly looks as if SoftBank will end up with Sprint (vote on June 25), and Dish with a big minority stake in Clearwire that it could use to obtain a 4G network/spectrum deal with the 3 other parties in this saga. S -1.8% AH. CLWR +1.8%. (previous[View news story]
    I just don't see what dish can do with just spectrum. They'd have to build out and they would need all of clearwire to do that, and that would be a bottom-of-the-barrel gamble. WiMAX is dead!

    dish has racked up some serious debt and TV is moving to the internet, so the future is not all that bright. A decent uplink is essential for dish to survive, but spectrum is to uplink as raw copper is to a network - simply a raw material. 2-3% of what's needed.

    Charlie must be thinking of a Spectrum + WiMAX play? Could that be? Possibly!

    But if that were the case, I'm sure Hesse would sell him WiMAX plus Spectrum for far far far less than charlie is offering for clearwire, so maybe that's not it!

    I think Charlie is angling for a breakup fee! Good luck getting one from Clearwire.
    Jun 18 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • While Sprint (S -1.3%) slumps on a report SoftBank (SFTBF.PK) is talking with Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY.PK) about buying its 74% stake in T-Mobile USA (TMUS +4.1%) should the Sprint deal falter, Dish (DISH +1.5%) has spiked higher, as investors take the report as a sign SoftBank would rather abandon its Sprint efforts than significantly raise its bid. Sources tell Reuters SoftBank and DT have been talking since last year, but that talks "intensified" following Dish's $25.5B offer for Sprint. Clearwire (CLWR +3.3%) has also moved higher, and is now $0.02 above Dish's $4.40/share offer price. (previous[View news story]
    To Milehr - Softbank wants an in to the US market. Sprint is the best path to that, and Clearwire has compatible spectrum, but on their own, each is not worth overpaying for AND Sprint still owns > 50% of Clearwire, so...

    DT is an eminently viable alternative, and if they make that acquisition, Dish will likely extract from CLWR which will go belly up and Sprint will likely buy it from the bondholders for very little. Not bad for Sprint at all.

    I agree with Safis. CE is playing russian roulette in an act of desperation. Sprint obviously wants nothing to do with him, but he has to try.

    Until this all plays out, I sadly cannot be long. Sprint, on the other hand, appears to be in excellent position no matter what happens, although the best outcome would be a speedy Softbank deal.
    Jun 7 05:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clearwire (CLWR +4%) reschedules its special shareholder meeting to May 31, so as to give investors time to weigh Sprint's (S) new $3.40/share offer. Crest Financial says it still isn't satisfied, arguing Clearwire's spectrum deserves a higher price tag. Shares are currently at $3.39, a penny below the offer price. [View news story]
    What a drama. Time to get away from the dancing elephants.
    May 21 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric Looks As If It's Becoming The Shareholder-Friendly Company It Once Was [View article]
    Nice article. However, at a PE over 17, it's probably not the time to jump in.
    May 21 12:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment