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AggGrow

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  • Annaly Capital: Risk To Future Dividend And Book Value Persist [View article]
    I'm not sure what you're saying.

    1 - "However, the recent selloff in mortgages should yield lower gains going forward, creating pressure on the company's future dividends." How is that? I get the idea of a smaller pool, but what does this mean?

    2 - "an additional 15 bps spread widening would yield nearly 5% book value decline." Huh? How is spread widening bad?

    I'll stop here.
    Aug 13 01:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Affymetrix 'Sequencing' A Turnaround, Or Just A Devolving Genetic Anomaly? [View article]
    To add to your comments, many in the epigenetics space feel that the value in micro assay technology is all but wiped out by proton sequencing or many other techniques that are available from Illumina and LifeTech. Does this jibe with what you're hearing? Is it possible that AFFX has been working on some leapfrog technology?
    Aug 12 02:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly off marginally following earnings [View news story]
    I too added. Scared though. When you look at the obvious, it screams buy, but then you have to ask, why isn't it obvious to everyone? What am I missing?

    The thing that resonated loudest with me was the huge improvement in the spread. I'm starting to think that AGNC guy is the smartest of them all. NLY is playing it conservatively, but the facts are that the mortgage market couldn't possibly go lower. This is not the time for conservative bets.

    I guess if the fed reverses course completely, we'd be screwed, but then again, so would the fed. Can't see that being even a remote possibility.

    Other thoughts???

    Anyway, I'm down a dividend adjusted 15% and am totally cool with that. Giddy almost, but scared too.
    Aug 7 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Panicky selling grips the mortgage REITs (REM -3.5%) as Treasury yields soar following the payroll report. American Capital (AGNC -6.9%), (MTGE -5%), Annaly (NLY -6.9%) Chimera (CIM -4.9%), Armour (ARR -3.9%), Invesco (IVR -2.7%), CYS Investments (CYS -3%). CYS' Kevin Grant was public a month ago about being a happy buyer as yields rose - a bit early on that call. [View news story]
    Interesting. I wonder if there's an index that compares the divergence of the technicals to the fundamentals.
    Jul 5 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genetic sequencing pioneer Jonathan Rothberg resigns from Life Technologies (LIFE). Mr. Rothberg's resignation - which the company says was expected - comes as the company aims to complete a $13.6B merger with Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO). The sequencing machine business that Mr. Rothberg ran, Ion Torrent, represents a small percentage of Life's overall revenue, but was cited by Thermo Fisher as oneof the motivating factors behind the acquisition. [View news story]
    Jonathan was a bit iconic. His departure probably was expected, but probably disappointing to the marketers leveraging his cachet. Good news is that maybe he'll go off and do it again.
    Jun 27 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dish (DISH) is all but officially abandoning its bid for Sprint (S). In a fresh update, the satellite TV provider says the revised SoftBank (SFTBF.PK) deal makes it "impracticable" for it to submit a new offer by Sprint's June 18 deadline, and that it will now focus its "efforts and resources" on the Clearwire (CLWR) tender offer. It increasingly looks as if SoftBank will end up with Sprint (vote on June 25), and Dish with a big minority stake in Clearwire that it could use to obtain a 4G network/spectrum deal with the 3 other parties in this saga. S -1.8% AH. CLWR +1.8%. (previous[View news story]
    I just don't see what dish can do with just spectrum. They'd have to build out and they would need all of clearwire to do that, and that would be a bottom-of-the-barrel gamble. WiMAX is dead!

    dish has racked up some serious debt and TV is moving to the internet, so the future is not all that bright. A decent uplink is essential for dish to survive, but spectrum is to uplink as raw copper is to a network - simply a raw material. 2-3% of what's needed.

    Charlie must be thinking of a Spectrum + WiMAX play? Could that be? Possibly!

    But if that were the case, I'm sure Hesse would sell him WiMAX plus Spectrum for far far far less than charlie is offering for clearwire, so maybe that's not it!

    I think Charlie is angling for a breakup fee! Good luck getting one from Clearwire.
    Jun 18 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • While Sprint (S -1.3%) slumps on a report SoftBank (SFTBF.PK) is talking with Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY.PK) about buying its 74% stake in T-Mobile USA (TMUS +4.1%) should the Sprint deal falter, Dish (DISH +1.5%) has spiked higher, as investors take the report as a sign SoftBank would rather abandon its Sprint efforts than significantly raise its bid. Sources tell Reuters SoftBank and DT have been talking since last year, but that talks "intensified" following Dish's $25.5B offer for Sprint. Clearwire (CLWR +3.3%) has also moved higher, and is now $0.02 above Dish's $4.40/share offer price. (previous[View news story]
    To Milehr - Softbank wants an in to the US market. Sprint is the best path to that, and Clearwire has compatible spectrum, but on their own, each is not worth overpaying for AND Sprint still owns > 50% of Clearwire, so...

    DT is an eminently viable alternative, and if they make that acquisition, Dish will likely extract from CLWR which will go belly up and Sprint will likely buy it from the bondholders for very little. Not bad for Sprint at all.

    I agree with Safis. CE is playing russian roulette in an act of desperation. Sprint obviously wants nothing to do with him, but he has to try.

    Until this all plays out, I sadly cannot be long. Sprint, on the other hand, appears to be in excellent position no matter what happens, although the best outcome would be a speedy Softbank deal.
    Jun 7 05:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clearwire (CLWR +4%) reschedules its special shareholder meeting to May 31, so as to give investors time to weigh Sprint's (S) new $3.40/share offer. Crest Financial says it still isn't satisfied, arguing Clearwire's spectrum deserves a higher price tag. Shares are currently at $3.39, a penny below the offer price. [View news story]
    What a drama. Time to get away from the dancing elephants.
    May 21 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric Looks As If It's Becoming The Shareholder-Friendly Company It Once Was [View article]
    Nice article. However, at a PE over 17, it's probably not the time to jump in.
    May 21 12:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprint (S) acquires app developer/distributor Handmark, which has been around since the pre-iPhone era. Handmark runs an app store and (through its OneLouder unit) has developed a slew of iOS/Android apps, many of which have strong social media components. Sprint says the deal will strengthen its Pinsight Media+ targeted mobile ad platform; it comes a few months after Sprint struck a mobile ad partnership with Telefonica, and a couple weeks after a mobile content/ad deal was reached with Time. [View news story]
    This all seems odd to me. Any thoughts on Sprint's strategy here?
    May 20 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "There's no way" Sprint's (S) attempt to buy Clearwire (CLWR +0.6%) succeeds without a higher bid, says Taran Asset Management's Chris Gleason, one of many institutional Clearwire investors planning to vote against Sprint's $2.97/share offer at Tuesday's meeting. Reuters has uncovered investors holding 31% of Clearwire's public (non-Sprint-owned) shares who oppose the current deal; Sprint needs a majority of public shares to be voted in favor. Clearwire is trading 10% above Sprint's offer price, and 1% below Dish's $3.30/share offer price. (previous[View news story]
    That may be true, Pd, but it's equally likely or more likely that Sprint walks and buys it from the bondholders. You have to ask yourself - who else is going to bid for that?

    Dish? No! Dish has oodles of spectrum it has to use before such and such a date or it loses it. Dish doesn't want the spectrum. It wants a real business.

    Crest? Puh-lease!

    Verizon? Maybe but clearly not at $2.97. Maybe if it's a buck, Verizon might grab it, but probably not. They can't really use it.

    Softbank? No. No operations in the US? Spectrum without operations is like a DVD without a DVD player.

    US Cellular? Maybe, but probably a little rich.

    US Cell + another + another? Again, maybe, but I don;t think you can add up all the folks who might be able to use that spectrum and get 10% of Sprint.

    So I agree with you, but they won't bid in the market - they'll bid in bankruptcy court.
    May 17 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "There's no way" Sprint's (S) attempt to buy Clearwire (CLWR +0.6%) succeeds without a higher bid, says Taran Asset Management's Chris Gleason, one of many institutional Clearwire investors planning to vote against Sprint's $2.97/share offer at Tuesday's meeting. Reuters has uncovered investors holding 31% of Clearwire's public (non-Sprint-owned) shares who oppose the current deal; Sprint needs a majority of public shares to be voted in favor. Clearwire is trading 10% above Sprint's offer price, and 1% below Dish's $3.30/share offer price. (previous[View news story]
    I predict that shareholders defeat the merger proposal. Sprint walks away. CLWR files BK. Sprint makes an offer to the court to buy out the bondholders at par or less, and shareholders are wiped out. Sprint gets the IP and Spectrum because there is STILL no competing bid, even Dish, and Crest gets a years supply of....nothing.
    May 17 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "There's no way" Sprint's (S) attempt to buy Clearwire (CLWR +0.6%) succeeds without a higher bid, says Taran Asset Management's Chris Gleason, one of many institutional Clearwire investors planning to vote against Sprint's $2.97/share offer at Tuesday's meeting. Reuters has uncovered investors holding 31% of Clearwire's public (non-Sprint-owned) shares who oppose the current deal; Sprint needs a majority of public shares to be voted in favor. Clearwire is trading 10% above Sprint's offer price, and 1% below Dish's $3.30/share offer price. (previous[View news story]
    I still don't get why these big hedge funds care? Sprint is undervalued too, and the synergy between the two will unlock value within. I mean, I'm all for a higher price and agree this is a low bid, but really - what's the point?

    I read an article in Forbes by some real ding-a-ling. The net of it (I think) was that if CLWR shareholders defeat the Sprint bid, then Verizon will step up and make a bigger one. Now you tell me - is that pretzel logic or what? If Verizon wanted to make a bid, it would have. If Verizon thought Sprint's bid was beat-able, it would have a competing bid in today. Duh!

    Fact is, there will be no other higher offers except maybe from the truly desperate, like Dish, which is a sure loss for Sprint shareholders. And there's a sensible reason that this is so. Sprint, Clearwire, Softbank and China Mobile already operate equipment in that spectrum, so it's less costly to deploy and/or move customers. Verizon and AT&T do not and have not. Whether they should is up to them, but the point for us is that the value of >2GHz spectrum is less to everyone except the aforementioned.

    That, plus the fact that CLWR shareholders become S shareholders, should mean that no real investor should be disheartened by Sprints lowball bid.

    Speculators - maybe! Investors - Not!

    I wonder what I'm missing?!
    May 17 03:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Not Buying Shares Of Sprint [View article]
    That's an interesting question. Of course people think it's worth what someone is willing to pay for it. But SPRINT+Softbank is worth a lot more in my mind that Sprint+Dish. Funny, huh?
    May 2 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Not Buying Shares Of Sprint [View article]
    I agree 1000 percent, but it's just not worth the risk. I'll hang tight and forgo a small gain to eliminate the risk. So far, though, the gain has been negative.
    May 2 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
181 Comments
158 Likes