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  • Short Annaly: Expect More Capital Depreciation [View article]
    Nope. Short interest has hardly changed over the past year.
    Aug 22 01:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Annaly: Expect More Capital Depreciation [View article]
    What does that have to do with Annaly?
    Aug 22 01:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Annaly: Expect More Capital Depreciation [View article]
    Frog, What you don't get is that REITs are about cashflow, not equity growth. Sure, the increase in rates will inversely effect the book value of the held mortgages, but the rise in rates plus the fixed nature of how they borrow means that spreads and dividends will explode until such a time as the fed raises the discount rate, something that's not even remotely on the table. So they will pay out more. Then, sooner or later, the market will adjust the book to reflect reality.

    Bond bears are simply reacting predictably to something they don't understand.

    Tell me honestly, do you think all this insider buying is misinformed?
    Aug 22 01:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Annaly: Expect More Capital Depreciation [View article]
    Hungry, you're spot on. Mortgages are going to get more expensive, but but the rates at the window won't be changing. Spreads will only rise. That's why Welly bought 30k shares on the open market on the 20th and when prices dropped a dime the next day (today) bought 150000 more, and left all her options alone (of course, they're underwater). Now lets wait and hear which idiots says she spent 2m of her own money to create a false impression.
    Aug 22 12:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Methodology For Assessing Sustainability Of Annaly's 13.4% Dividend Yield [View article]
    I fail to see why they would implode. While there is a spread, there will be arbitrage and there will ALWAYS be a market. For a flattening curve, Annaly has already demonstrated that they won't go too far out of the risk line, unlike their competitors.

    I agree, however, that this is a political fiasco, gratis George W and Barney Frank, two of the finest of the breed. Saying that the bankers were not opportunistically complicit, however, devalues the rest of your analysis.

    Look, my principal is down from where I bought, but my yield is still almost 9%, based on the higher principal. Would I have bought lower - Sure! Would I have waited to buy lower? Not a chance! Will it go lower still? Possibly! Will it go higher? I have no doubt at all. Does that really matter? Not to me. It's the dividend that I care about, and I see it going higher. This is an NPV deal through and through.
    Aug 16 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: Risk To Future Dividend And Book Value Persist [View article]
    No, they'll back off at some point. They will have to. All the money out there will cause an even bigger bubble if it doesn't get sopped up. The FED has never had very good timing, but right now, all that excess liquidity is barely starting the economy, but when it does, it will zoom pretty fast, and they will have little choice but to pull back. I just hope they execute it well.

    Read Calculated Risk, He's not a genius, but he thinks very clearly and transparently. My favorite blog.
    Aug 15 10:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: Risk To Future Dividend And Book Value Persist [View article]
    OK, So I'm lost a bit here and need further clarification.

    The Spread is the difference between what they borrow at and what they lend at. If that spread increases, they make more money. If they make more money, they pay a higher dividend (all things being equal). If they pay a higher dividend, the book value rises.

    Bond Prices move inversely to rates - that's a given, but that is due to the fact that face value is fixed.

    So what am I missing? Why would NLY book value plunge 5% if 'spreads widen' .15%? Are you saying that the value of the holdings drop when the rates those holdings yield rise?
    Aug 15 10:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: Insiders Are Buying, Should You? [View article]
    Jeez! Read this:

    "For the quarter ended June 30, 2013, the annualized yield on average interest-earning assets was 2.51% and the annualized cost of funds on average interest-bearing liabilities, including the net interest payments on interest rate swaps, was 1.53%, which resulted in an average interest rate spread of 0.98%. This was a 7 basis point increase from the 0.91% average interest rate spread for the quarter ended March 31, 2013, and a 56 basis point decrease from the 1.54% average interest rate spread for the quarter ended June 30, 2012." Annaly's last earnings report

    and maybe this...

    "Long-term interest rates spiked in June because of worries that the Federal Reserve Bank would begin curtailing its asset-purchasing program later this year. Short-term interest rates remained unchanged because they are based on the federal funds rate, which the Fed has kept at near zero since the financial crisis. It has signaled that it plans to keep that rate near zero until unemployment is 6.5%." -

    There is NOTHING more you need to know between today and the next earnings report.

    Where do these PUNDITs get their ideas?
    Aug 15 06:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Methodology For Assessing Sustainability Of Annaly's 13.4% Dividend Yield [View article]
    Good Article Ron. The factors that you choose to deemphasize, however, are there to hedge against the downside, and tend to flatten the upside too, so I don't really think it's as conservative as you say. Although I agree with you on the sneaky deal they pushed through, I still think that they run more conservatively than the horde.
    Aug 13 01:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Methodology For Assessing Sustainability Of Annaly's 13.4% Dividend Yield [View article]
    Hi Frog;

    Having thought about it, I'd say the MREITs, obviously. Are you suggesting that short maturity paper yields the same as long maturity paper?
    Aug 13 01:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: Risk To Future Dividend And Book Value Persist [View article]
    I'm not sure what you're saying.

    1 - "However, the recent selloff in mortgages should yield lower gains going forward, creating pressure on the company's future dividends." How is that? I get the idea of a smaller pool, but what does this mean?

    2 - "an additional 15 bps spread widening would yield nearly 5% book value decline." Huh? How is spread widening bad?

    I'll stop here.
    Aug 13 01:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Affymetrix 'Sequencing' A Turnaround, Or Just A Devolving Genetic Anomaly? [View article]
    To add to your comments, many in the epigenetics space feel that the value in micro assay technology is all but wiped out by proton sequencing or many other techniques that are available from Illumina and LifeTech. Does this jibe with what you're hearing? Is it possible that AFFX has been working on some leapfrog technology?
    Aug 12 02:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly off marginally following earnings [View news story]
    I too added. Scared though. When you look at the obvious, it screams buy, but then you have to ask, why isn't it obvious to everyone? What am I missing?

    The thing that resonated loudest with me was the huge improvement in the spread. I'm starting to think that AGNC guy is the smartest of them all. NLY is playing it conservatively, but the facts are that the mortgage market couldn't possibly go lower. This is not the time for conservative bets.

    I guess if the fed reverses course completely, we'd be screwed, but then again, so would the fed. Can't see that being even a remote possibility.

    Other thoughts???

    Anyway, I'm down a dividend adjusted 15% and am totally cool with that. Giddy almost, but scared too.
    Aug 7 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Panicky selling grips the mortgage REITs (REM -3.5%) as Treasury yields soar following the payroll report. American Capital (AGNC -6.9%), (MTGE -5%), Annaly (NLY -6.9%) Chimera (CIM -4.9%), Armour (ARR -3.9%), Invesco (IVR -2.7%), CYS Investments (CYS -3%). CYS' Kevin Grant was public a month ago about being a happy buyer as yields rose - a bit early on that call. [View news story]
    Interesting. I wonder if there's an index that compares the divergence of the technicals to the fundamentals.
    Jul 5 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genetic sequencing pioneer Jonathan Rothberg resigns from Life Technologies (LIFE). Mr. Rothberg's resignation - which the company says was expected - comes as the company aims to complete a $13.6B merger with Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO). The sequencing machine business that Mr. Rothberg ran, Ion Torrent, represents a small percentage of Life's overall revenue, but was cited by Thermo Fisher as oneof the motivating factors behind the acquisition. [View news story]
    Jonathan was a bit iconic. His departure probably was expected, but probably disappointing to the marketers leveraging his cachet. Good news is that maybe he'll go off and do it again.
    Jun 27 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment