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  • Annaly Capital - The Slippery Slope Begins [View article]
    Third is...

    Why would PEG even apply to an REIT, nevermind an mREIT. Good to hear the perspective, but not very credible.

    If an investor is looking for growth, then PEG is important and NLY is not and never was the right vehicle. If an investor is looking for income and safety, REITs are usually a very good bet. The fact that the payouts have been fantastic recently due to fed actions is nice, but not something to bank on.

    Will the share price drop in the near future? Probably because some growth investors may have bid it up unreasonably. Will it continue to payout at a fantastic yield? Clearly yes.

    So the authors advice is good for growth or momentum investors who have been here visiting, but for income investors, just re-read the Market Commentary from the Annaly website.
    Oct 15, 2012. 10:24 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Hope The Exit Doors Are Wide Enough [View article]
    Boy, there's a Rube Goldberg example if ever I saw one.

    In most cases, long rates rise faster because no lender wants to be holding 30 year notes at 3% when the market is at 4, especially since lenders, who are now basically bondholders, will allocate capital to the highest payer. The Fed is the tail and the market is the dog.

    I'm not disagreeing with RS. His analysis is probably right - for a week or two - and I also agree Farrell was far more savvy. However, my ability to time swings has never been good enough to warrant the effort. There may well be a rush to the exits and then a rush back. I wouldn't sweat it too much. The longer term picture is that mortgage lending has not come back so much because housing starts are still weak. When the fed does raise, and that, unfortunately won't be very soon, the yeild curves will all rise proportionally and the mREIT sector will improve nicely. (Not that it's not fantastic right now)
    Jan 23, 2015. 11:31 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Nokia Shorts Were Right All Along, And Fatally Wrong At The Same Time [View article]
    I am delighted to have my NOK investment rid of the D&S business. I think NSN is a stronger player than any of the others and am expecting significant share appreciation over time as NOK can focus more of it's attention to this far more lucrative market segment. The fact is that D&S got blindsided in a not-uncommon unwillingness to eat it's own lunch. Apple shot them in the heart and now Google is feasting on the carcass. The fact that Microsoft wants a bite is not unsurprising.

    While this must be an emotional blow to Finlanders, market dominance is something that must be earned every day, and I now see that Finland has a fresh step up to the plate. Sure beats being relegated to the minors.

    Let's go Finland! Let's make NSN the go to vendor in the NEP space!
    Sep 8, 2013. 10:40 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The FCC Disses The Clearwire Auction [View article]
    Spectrum is to wireless what copper is to wired. If you have a shortage of wire the right length, gauge, and price, you will have transmission problems. You're right that there is plenty if spectrum to go around, but it is artificially (and wisely a that) allocated by sovereign nations.

    As the nation's demand for more bandwidth increases, and it is increasing, things tend to become depleted. Technology can solve much of the problem, but bandwidth, and therefore, spectrum, is essential. It is the raw material for wireless communications. How it is fabricated by policy and technology enhances it, but it is still prerequisite.

    Now, we all know your real issue is Sprint, not Spectrum. I'm going to do a bit of speculating myself and proffer that you're a concerned T or VZN holder, and you should be (concerned). The idea of being beholden to just T and VZN is something one should fight with all their energy - just as one would if it were S and VZN, or whatever.

    Dan Hesse has made some spectacular moves since he has been on the job. Most of that goes unrecognized because T and VZN have the lions share of the wealth and the market. However, Sprint has the benefit of agility and not being beholden to the status-quo and that gives them a profound edge in the technology driven world. Son sees this, Eric Prusch sees this, Charlie Ergen sees this. You don't. That's OK - you may ultimately be right! Nonetheless, I'm putting my money on the fact that Sprint+Clearwire+USCel... will provide better coverage, faster speeds, and better service all for a fairer price when all is said and done. And that is why consumers will favor them and they will win, or at least grow much faster than those who will be shrinking.
    Jan 10, 2013. 12:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs Are The True Dividend Champions, And Safer Than You May Think [View article]
    So higher rates will lead to a poorer outcome? How does that work?
    Mar 6, 2014. 04:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation Is Dead, Long Live Deflation [View article]
    God bless everybody here. I thought I was the only one in the world that didn't get the 'inflation is good' argument. Those who point to debt rising in value cannot be oblivious to the other side of the seesaw. In fact, any inflation at all erodes the value of savings and therefore discourages saving and encourages consumption. Now there's a philosophical argument a-brewin'.

    As to the fed cooking the inflation numbers - it's not the fed doing the cooking. It's the BLS - your friendly government officials. And if you think about it, when a tax system is based on income, well, inflation is just ducky! Alas, consumption taxation would be little better!

    Inflation is absolutely destructive to any monetary system. Since the US Dollar is the king of the hill right now, Dollar inflation is the worst kind, globally. Of course, debtors will not agree with that! Anyone know any debtors?

    It irks me that my government is willing to erode the value of my savings to diminish the overhang of their (our) debt.
    Nov 21, 2013. 10:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Sprint And T-Mobile Join Forces? [View article]
    Bad idea. TMobile and Sprint use different systems and Sprint doesn't need anything TMobile has, just baggage. The market needs the competition. Google will certainly enter the service provider market and the widespread use of LTE will blur the lines between the Comcasts of the world and the Sprints of the world. With all that competition, Sprint needs to be as strong as possible, and a merger with weak sisters like Dish or TMob is inane. If Sprint wants to 'merge' it should look to Comcast or Charter, or even Google!
    Nov 20, 2013. 12:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insiders Are Buying Annaly Capital Management [View article]
    I like your article, but...

    Who are Capstead Mortgage, Impac Mortgage Holdings, and Redwood Trust? I would think that American Capital and Hatteras are better comparables and make for a firmer argument.

    Aug 22, 2013. 05:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: Continuity, Confirmation And Dividends Will Keep This Stock A Solid Buy [View article]
    Jonk - The discussion is not about how much they pay themselves. Noone is proposing changing that. It is about transparency.

    The proposal is whether they want to spin out a management firm rather than managing internally. It's about moving risk from managers to shareholders. It's about shielding shareholders from data points that they SHOULD HAVE.

    I agree with you that I am not unhappy with what management is paid as long as it's aligned with shareholders interests. I disagree that this is any way to go about it. This is a very bad thing for shareholders.

    Is management so thin skinned that "fingerpointers" bother them? If so, then I'm doubly concerned!
    Mar 21, 2013. 10:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: Continuity, Confirmation And Dividends Will Keep This Stock A Solid Buy [View article]
    I think you're right, and I disagree. You can choose to use the word 'fingerpointers' or you can note that transparency and honesty go hand in hand. We see time and time again that those who shy away from accountability often go down the wrong path, while those who embrace it simply cannot and do not. (Well, at least their mistakes generally seem more honest and shareholder-serving.)

    I don't support this at all and will definitely weigh this heavily in any decision to move my REIT money around. Very heavily. Mike Farrell would probably not have considered such an unfriendly idea. I'm sure Welly can point to the advice of a thousand lawyers to make her case, but I simply don't like it or trust it. End of story.
    Mar 21, 2013. 10:28 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SoftBank's (SFTBF.PK) history suggests an acquisition of Sprint (S -1%) would mean big things for the U.S. mobile industry, notes Tero Kuittinen. Thanks to aggressive pricing, SoftBank managed to turn an also-ran Japanese carrier (the former Vodafone Japan) into the market's subscriber add leader shortly after acquiring it in '06, and has kept its lead since. Should AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ), who seem happy to maintain premium pricing, be worried? (more[View news story]
    S was rocked under Forsee, but Hesse has proven to be a man of the internet age, and neither T nor VZN seem to be able to say the same. I think S is in the best position to lower pricing while maintaining superior margins AND customer service. If Softbank brings deep pockets to the party, I would be afraid - very very afraid - if I were in Sprints crosshairs.
    Oct 12, 2012. 05:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Beware: REIT Yields, Though Sexy, Aren't Telling The Whole Story [View article]
    So Matt - What is the 'whole story'? You just wasted my time to offer... nothing.
    Oct 7, 2012. 12:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: Continuity, Confirmation And Dividends Will Keep This Stock A Solid Buy [View article]
    Thank you, RS.

    In a capitalist society such as ours, it is essential that the allocators (us) keep the aggressive tendencies of the managers that we want to be aggressive, in check. Management (Philosophically - not specifically ours) will quickly move to maximize their benefit, and capital allocators must be prepared to keep the situation in balance, or things invariably go off the rails and a good thing for all turns into a bad thing for all. The worst thing that can happen in a capitalist society is that people say "They're making me money - I'll cut them all the slack they ask for." This is a recipe for disaster, in my opinion.
    Mar 21, 2013. 11:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital's Q4 Results Show Decline Rate Slowing [View article]
    Tim - They will replace the sold assets with new assets - just like they always do. Don't really understand how you see this as a negative. The market price for such assets has not risen, has it? I think it's dropped to the floor! And even if it does rise, they can only buy what they can buy, right? A bank can only lend it's deposit times it's leverage rate - a product that's fairly steady over time for NLY.

    Welly and team are managing masterfully, and while many jumped in at the peak of the 'black swan' and might be feeling lousy, the fact of the matter is NLY offers a great return, has weathered this slim spread period very well, and still beats the pants off virtually any other dividend-paying entity. Heck, my purchases that are two years old are well in the black - and that was the worst time to buy.

    As to the $12 to $15 range for the rest of the year - I doubt it will drop much lower than where it closed today. So there we have it - your guess versus mine. Let's see who has to eat their words.
    Feb 7, 2013. 06:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital - The Slippery Slope Begins [View article]
    You make a good point. The unit price will be supported by those seeking to make deposits to a yield generating account. As the price drops, the yield rises, until an equilibrium is reached.

    That doesn't help the growth investors who piled in when the yield was 20%, but it certainly doesn't hurt anyone else.
    Oct 15, 2012. 10:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment