I currently have a 15 year mortgage on my home @ 3.75% with around 11 years left on it. My goal,and I know it's different than almost everyone else's ,is to have an Oz. of gold or 50 Oz. of Silver for each remaining month of the mortgage. That gives me some peace of mind,and I don't worry about daily fluctuations of the Precious metals prices. The good thing is that i'm working on both ends toward the middle and my break even point is not that far away. Sound crazy? I like the way it works at any rate. FMI : 115 GLD is about $1200.00 spot gold price :) http://www.macrotrends.net/1378/dow-to-gold-ratio-100-year-historical-chart http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/01/17/hows-whys-gold-price-manipulation/ http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/hegemony 1) This was a post I read on SA by another poster.It's concerning Inflation,Keynesian economics and governments that continue to fail the people. Written by Kgroeppe : " The Fed has engineered a 97% depreciation in our paper currency during its century of incompetence and fraud, i.e., it has defrauded the working class out of much of its hard-earned money. Since 1999 the process has accelerated with repeal of Glass-Steagall. How long will it take to go the rest of the way? When the Roman gold coin reached .5% Gold content, the empire collapsed, not only economically but also socially and politically. Many people who should know better believe that we can merely substitute another currency and be back in the race again. That is not the way it works. When an economy collapses, there must be some entity to pay the bills. With a country like Argentina or Mexico, the big banks and the world economy take a hit, but it is small and causes no more than a blip in world economic activity. When an economy the size of ours collapses, it takes the whole world economy with it. With that goes the social and political structures also, because by that time the populace has completely lost confidence in everything, and does not know what to do. So what can we do? One fact we do not normally learn in history classes is that when Rome "fell" it was followed by Persia, India, China and the Arab countries. Only one government did not follow suit - The Byzantine Empire. Why? Because around 1100 the Byzantine Emperor Alexios I Komnenos did something no other head of state in history has ever done. The Byzantine coinage had gone from gold to silver to copper to base metals with its accompanying inflation, such as we are seeing now. By this time Alexios was in power, and he must have seen what was going on in the world around him, and he restored 100% gold coinage. The Byzantine economy was restored to health and the Empire lasted another 350 years when it was conquered by the Turks. Why can't we learn from Alexios? The change will involve some pain for everyone, but that is far better than what will happen otherwise. Do we want to leave behind us a healthy civilization ready to go another 1000 years, or do we want to leave only ruins? Time is running out, and that is one matter we cannot afford to put off. If our civilization does collapse,we can count on from 200 to 500 years to restore some kind of order. Until then we will be more like Somalia than Zimbabwe, ruled by warlords. This is no scare tactic. This happened around 1200 B.C. and again after the demise of Rome. We have overly romanticized the "nobles" and "knights" of the Middle Ages, but closer study reveals that they were warlords with their armed retinues. Is this what we want our legacy to be? We can joke about it and make puns on Yellen's name (I certainly have done my share), but we need to abolish the Fed and come up with better economists than we have now advising the government. They are what I call fake economists, because they have mindlessly embraced Keynesian economics. John Maynard Keynes did not invent Keynesian economics; the Romans did, and look where it took them. In 1835, Alexis de Tocqueville stated that the greatest threat to democracy was people voting themselves too many perks. We now know the truth in his statement, and it is time for us to adopt a more altruistic attitude, and admit that we have to pay for those perks, and begin to try to get this economy back on its feet. The past 6 years should have taught us an important lesson. If it hasn't, then we deserve whatever history has to dish out to us, and if we do not act now, that reckoning will be coming much sooner than we realize right now. By the way, there is one economic lesson I can impart here, which has great pertinence in the here and now. We are told that inflation is running about 1.5%, but the figures used to compute this figure are selected. Inflation manifests in three ways: A. increase in prices B. decrease in quantity C. decrease in quality Have you looked at the size of the containers of food you buy in the grocery, or have you noticed the quality of cloth in your most recent clothing purchases? Now you can decide how serious inflation is at present." 2.. When it comes to dealing with the government and particularly the present Obamacare TAX you to death administration,my favorite thought comes from Larry Gatlin of the Gatlin brothers. "You take your dog to a Veterinarian who also happens to be a Taxidermist ,no matter whether your dog gets better or not you will get your dog back" Gotta love the logic in that :) 3. A Collateralized Debt Object CDO is a perfect example of how bubbles occur.Gold may have paper bubbles created ,but Gold itself is not a bubble.If it reflects the market of paper trades that become bubbles ,it will be a safe haven in times of crisis . http://bit.ly/XuOwnV .Paper trades of anything can be done in excess.That's my point plain and simple. Please read 'The Big Short' By Michael Lewis and you will realize how wrong the line of thinking of throwing money at investments can be.Anything can be a bad investment when taken to extreme., I wish we could all just see these type of so called investments for what they are. Paper trades are fine and serve a purpose ,if that is what you want . But it doesn't make Gold in your portfolio a bad idea ,all things in moderation . The CDS http://thebea.st/10OOtSF market was a perfect example of an investment that was not suitable for people to be engaging in. Who knew what these things really were? In Lewis' book he points out many times how those making crazy profits off of these CDO and CDS transactions were the most blind because they didn't do their due diligence. Why should they ?They were making money with other peoples nest-eggs , and why rock the boat . 4.MONEY : What is it? Money must be a store of value, be fungible, be a unit of exchange, be portable, be durable, and be a unit of account. Fiat currency has all of these characteristics except one: It is not a store of value. The material it is made from is useless and it is no longer backed by gold. This makes it a currency, not money. Gold has always been money because it meets all of these parts of the definition and then some. It cannot be made nor destroyed. It retains its value and cannot be inflated. ALL fiat currencies go to zero eventually, gold and silver hold their value Flat earthers(Global warming hoaxters) are usually unaware of this : Isaiah 40:22 It is he that sitteth above the sphere of the earth, and the inhabitants thereof are as grasshoppers; that stretcheth out the heavens as a curtain, and spreadeth them out as a tent to dwell in; Almost 700 years before Christ Isaiah wrote about the earth as being round (A sphere) not Flat.And many of the early scientist realized this Newton,Galileo. The Book of Isaiah was written between 701 and 681 B.C.
Moving along the continuum of time, I have been invested in the market successfully for 30+ years.
Part of the general diaspora from New York (Queens), and now an educator and self-taught (organic) rancher in West Central Texas I have always had a profound interest in geo-politics and history as it relates to economics. Possessing degrees in politics, electronic engineering, as well as education I have been fortunate to have traveled extensively and worked for several international firms, notably in Sweden and Canada before doing what amounts to missionary work in our public schools, as a teacher.
My investment philosophy is conservative, yet on occasion contrarian. For example commodities in the early 70's, presently high quality US dividend aristocrats presently - mixed with some well entrenched European securities that offer consistent dividends and growth upside. That said, I too believe long-term investment is the sine qua non for financial success - unless you are steeped in financial wizardry and luck, which I certainly am not. I have also constructed a firm inner ring of dividend aristocrats that allow my (outward) "concentric ring" to flourish. However, in a dangerously over bought market I have gathered the wagons and sold off those smaller European and global equities that have profited during our long bull run-up - while awaiting the inevitable 20 -30 % correction. I have always invested in dividend stocks, and will continue to do so; I do not "play the market". "Dividends are real money and do not lie" about a stocks overall performance. The goal always is to be equal to and greater than inflation - beyond the pablum of government disseminated statistics, to buy quality when others flee, to invest and not flip equities for a quick dollar, to hold on, but know intuitively by experience when to sell if, for example, a dividend is cut - or not.
I enjoy SA, and believe it is a positive forum for intelligent conversation concerning investment and economics.
Former owner of a medium sized regional interstate moving company. After 30 years in this industry I sensed another recession coming and broke up the company and sold to two nationally known large van line operations in 2007. One wanted my warehouses and storage accounts and the other my national account sales base. Worked for one of these companies for a year but found I don't work well with others.
Took the cash I had from the sale of company and began to invest in a deeply depressed market. I felt the older broker I knew from my church and had my IRA was adequate but met a young broker excited to see any cash and have had a great relationship ever since. We've both made a lot of money since 2008. Received a family brokerage account upon their passing and now have a third broker. I am 58 years old.
There's an old adage : Teach a man to fish and he will eat for life. Updated version:
Obama has this rule for us to follow :
Give a man someone else's fish and he will vote for you !
Capital is fungible,when used properly it goes where it is best employed.
Fiat money in America is created solely as a result of the Federal Reserve system. Therefore it is totally accurate to say that the Federal Reserve system generates our most unfair tax. Both the tax and the system that makes it possible should be abolished.
The political scientist who authorized this process of monetizing the national debt and the monetary scientist who carry it out know that it is not true debt. It is not true debt because no one in Washington really expects to repay it, ever. The dual purpose of this magic show is simply to create free spending money for the politicians without the inconvenience of raising direct taxes and also to create a perpetual river of gold flowing into the banking cartel.
Each year since 1969, Congress has spent more money than its income. The Treasury Department has to borrow money to meet Congress's appropriations.The Congressional Budget Office web site's deficit analysis will show this . We have to pay interest* on that huge, growing debt; and it dramatically cuts into our budget.
I am a "reformed" ex-financial adviser who made a career change into healthcare for both practical and altruistic reasons. I have over 15 years of past experience in wealth management. During my previous career I specialized in overall portfolio management and relationship management for ultra-wealthy clients. Prior to voluntarily walking away from a very successful but ultimately unfulfilled career, I co-managed a book of business totaling approximately $1.2 billion AUM including stocks, bonds, mutual funds, hedged funds and private equity funds for a private trust company.
However, after a close family member passed away in 2011 I did some deep soul searching and decided to leave the wealth management business in 1012 for a career in healthcare. From an altruistic standpoint, I believe that I can have a more meaningful impact on society in the healthcare field as a clinician. Also, from a more pragmatic standpoint, I believe that disruptive technology will have less of an impact on careers such as physicians, physicians assistants and nurse practitioners; these types of careers are hard to automate for a number of reasons beyond the scope of this bio.
Now that I have successfully completed my career transition into healthcare I would like to leverage my years of financial experience to keep individuals informed and entertained. I would be doing this research for myself so why not write about it in an open forum like Seeking Alpha. Thanks for reading my profile and I hope that you enjoy my articles.
Education:• B.A., Political Science from Valdosta State University (2000) • MBA, University of Georgia (2010) • BSN, Mercer University (2015)
When will long-term investors have any cash to deploy? If you believe in their mantra, most of them think people should be nearly fully invested nearly all of the time - it is rare to have a long term Buy and Hold investor to keep 30% in cash for buying opportunities. How much of a loss are you willing to suffer waiting for a recovery? 10%, 20%, 30%?
Do the numbers and see what kind of gain you will need to recoup to the break even point on several loss levels to get an idea of how long you may need to wait. For example a 30% loss requires a 43% gain to get back to the break even. A 20% loss takes a 25 % GAIN to get back to even.$100,000 - 20% = $80,000 . 80k X 25% = 20,000 +80k =100K
There are few assets like PM's that are liquid and have NO counterparty risk. If you know of any that perform that function please post it for all to see.
The fact of the matter is that some people ONLY save any money because of Precious Metals. If it were not for their gold and silver many would not have any money saved or invested. They would have Beanie babies or some other fad item. The people that I sell Silver Eagles to are much happier ten years later when they bought those coins made of PM's for their grandchildren (or whomever) when they find out the $8 - $12 bucks they spent is worth more than they paid.And the recipient learns a valuable lesson from it. There are good gifts and not so good gifts. Silver Eagles rank near the top of the list. Don't underestimate the power for people to develop good savings habits using PM's . It's fundamental.
Our welfare system is a huge drain on the economy .Those of us working for a living instead of voting for a living see huge holes in our paychecks every week.
As unfortunate as it is to know that cuts to foodstamps and welfare will likely cause a bit of suffering, it’s not the job of the government to forcibly remove money from the pockets of hard working Americans in order to take care of those who won’t work.
Granted, there are some people who genuinely need the help, and those folks get dragged into the mud with the abusers, which isn’t fair to them.
Now, just because the government shouldn’t be “helping” those in need, doesn’t mean we as Americans should forego kindness and charity. Quite the opposite. Americans are some of the most generous people on the planet, but unfortunately, that generosity gets quelled when the government is involved.Without the government in the way, regular every day individuals like you and me need to step up and start helping those who are in dire straits. That’s how this country used to be long before all of the social welfare programs, and it’s what made our nation so wonderful.
If the government insists on being “helpful,” they can start by reducing taxes and ridiculous regulations that overburden small business owners, which will free them up to expand their companies and hire new workers.
....................................................................................................................................................... Let's say 50 years ago, 1964, your grandfather bequeathed you an inheritance worth $1,000, which he put in a pretty box with your name on it. At this moment, you are about to open that box… Would you be happy to find his personal check dated 1964 made payable to you; would you rather find ten $100 Federal Reserve Notes; or would you prefer to find that thousand bucks in the form of 4,000 silver quarters, the steady constant value of 715 ounces of silver, with a current dollar number north of $12,500? Would your choice be the same if you were putting your wealth away today for an heir to receive in ten, twenty, or fifty years?
Financial contagion happens at both the international level and the domestic level. At the domestic level, usually the failure of a domestic bank or financial intermediary triggers transmission when it defaults on interbank liabilities and sells assets in a fire sale, thereby undermining confidence in similar banks. An example of this phenomenon is the subsequent turmoil in the United Statesfinancial markets. International financial contagion, which happens in both advanced economies and developing economies, is the transmission of financial crisis across financial markets for direct or indirect economies. However, under today's financial system, with large volume of cash flow, such as hedge fund and cross-regional operation of large banks, financial contagion usually happens simultaneously both among domestic institutions and across countries. The cause of financial contagion usually is beyond the explanation of real economy, such as the bilateral trade volume.
I am a CFA with over 25 years experience at a number of major global middle market investment banks. I worked as a sell side equity research analyst as well as in investment banking where I researched and analyzed M&A trends and activity.
75 year history of Palms & Company
Google Profile: http://google.com/profiles/GlobalEconomicMeltdown 2014
Google Profiles: https://plus.google.com/u/0/111530479647791972928/about?pop=wv&hl=en_US
Author Understanding Russian Banking
300 pages 1997 ISBN 0-9645464-2-6
Available on Amazon, Non de Plum Pyotr Joannevich Van de Waal -Palms
Purchased by World Bank & International Monetary Fund
as well as http://PeterPalms/africa
article contributor to http://opednews.com
commentator on 50+ U.S. Newspapers, Chinese, Indian, Russian, African
I am the Chief of Operations at Wolfram Solutions, the consulting arm of the large privately held software company, Wolfram Research. I manage teams of programmers developing custom applications for business and, government, applying advanced analytic methods to practical challenges. I played a major role in the development of many of the financial features of Mathematica and Wolfram|Alpha. I have been at Wolfram for over 15 years. My academic background is in the social sciences and analytic methods in the social sciences, including finance, economics, statistics, modeling, simulation, and operations research. I studied at the University of Chicago, both undergrad and grad. I am also an individual investor with 30 years experience, mostly using mutual funds and fundamental analysis, plus specific investments in the financial sector. My contributions on Seeking Alpha focus on the financial sector and monetary economics, and what analysis of those areas can tell us about other macro trends. I also discuss portfolio theory, formal methods in finance, modeling and simulation of financial prices and economic time series, government statistical releases, financial regulation, and monetary policy.
Eric Parnell, CFA, is the Founder and Director of Gerring Capital Partners. Gerring Capital is a registered investment advisory firm seeking attractive returns opportunities emphasizing value, quality and risk control. Eric also publishes The Universal premium service on Seeking Alpha targeting winning strategies in bear and bull markets across the asset class universe. Gerring Capital implements these strategies for its investors and then Eric discusses them on The Universal. Eric is also a Visiting Instructor at Ursinus College in the Department of Business and Economics. Prior to founding Gerring in 2005, Eric was the Director of Investment Communications at SEI Investments and an Economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Just a small town guy in flyover country who likes to think about economics and finance, ever since taking a course from Larry Meyer in Washington U. in St. Louis many years ago...before he became a big Fed-head. He personally scammed me out of a dollar to "save the whales," and I've been intrigued ever since.
Author of Quantitative Investing (4.4 stars on Amazon). Designer of the Global Household Index and the systemic risk score MTS10 (click here to learn more). PhD in computer science, Software Engineer, Civil Engineer, 20+ years working in various sectors and countries. Investor focused on market-neutral and low risk portfolios, looking for profitable combinations of value and quality factors. Also interested in short volatility trading.
Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst.
He began investing in 1985. He read ˜The Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Edwards and Magee and was hooked. From 1985-1987 he made astonishing gains in the stock market; and then stocks collapsed in 1987. Since then he has been attempting to 'solve the stock market', with many failures and some successes. The system he developed, called CGTS, Clark's Gate Timining System, is algorithm-based. What this fancy word means is that he proposes a series of necessary steps based on technical analysis propositions, which, when met, trigger trading signals. His four main trading systems are up a combined 31% for 2015.
From his website:
Now that QE is supposedly ending, markets are already becoming more tradable, with opportunities to make money on both long and short trades at the same time. QE tended to make all boats rise, except precious metals. This made it more difficult to play the short side of the markets. Now, both sides seem to be more accessible to successful trades. This will also be more of a challenge for investors. The FED will have to eventually abandon the markets to their own destinies, and stop spending trillions to protect investors AND corporations from their mistakes. As this begins to happen (I am not sure it has happened yet), informed advice will become even more necessary for investors.
Rules of Investment
Rule #1: Never go against the trend. The majority is often wrong; but the minority is often wrong also. The sticky issue with this advice is at transition points, at which a Bull Market turns into a Bear Market or vice-versa. Big Money often anticipates and/or causes this transition. So pay attention to what Big Money is really doing, not what they say they are doing.
Rule #2: You don’t need a broker who makes his living off of your money. Most brokerage firms buy a position in a stock quietly and slowly. When the stock has appreciated significantly they add the stock to their buy recommendations. Then they begin selling their position while they are encouraging their clients to buy the stock. Most firms never issue sell recommendations. If they do, beware: they are probably trying to buy your stock after a huge sell-off.
Rule #3: Watch your own emotions because they are often signaling something. When fear turns to greed and visions of unlimited wealth, we are probably near a top in a trade and we should get ready to sell. When hope and denial turn to fear and visions of an unlimited loss, we are probably approaching a bottom in a trade. (See Rule #1 however.)
Rule #4: Trade with a system to complement your gut reactions. Follow the system no matter what, even if it means taking a loss. Don’t get lazy with your money and sink into denial. Use a system to help you refrain from 'playing a hunch'.
Rule #5: HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO AGAINST LOSSES. How does one do this? By having a balanced portfolio of long and short positions. But have a system that signals both long and short positions, and keep your portfolio balanced around 50% long and 50% short. This may seem to contradict Rule #1. It does not. When something is in a long trend, something else is in a short trend. Find what is long and what is short. If stocks are long, gold or oil may be short. Use ETFs and options to help establish this portfolio balance. Our system gives trading signals every day for both long and short positions.
More information on CGTS is available at:
His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address:
His writing portfolio can be found at:
Those interested in his book "Turn Out the Lights", a description of the metaphysical causes of the 2008 financial meltdown, can access the draft at:
Michael Clark has retired after working 30 years in academia, relocated to Hanoi, Vietnam for six years, and has returned to America in 2014.
I decided to take control of my investments when I learned about the sub prime markets and other bond market anomalies in 2006. I am an amateur but I became convinced we were headed for a huge crash, decided to exit the equities market, and the Dow promptly went up to 14000 from 12000 when I got out. But I had conviction and I was proved right. My financial advisors and all the professionals I knew were completely useless. They are trapped by their business model, which basically requires them to get your money and leave it in a "diversified portfolio" and then move on to the next sale. When the market goes down they basically say "yea but everyone did poorly". I realized they were not helpful, had no particular insight, and certainly were not worth the money. I had an interest in stocks and was highly motivated. I realized I knew as much or more than them, so I decided I had to get a hold of as much information as I could and take matters into my own hands. I figured I would have no one to blame but myself if I screw it up. I can live with that.
Andy Hecht is the chief market strategist for Carden Capital and Carden Futures. Andy is a sought-after commodity and futures trader, an options expert and analyst. He spent nearly 35 years on Wall Street, including two decades on the trading desk of Phillip Brothers, which became Salomon Brothers and ultimately part of Citigroup.
Over the past two decades, he has researched, structured and executed some of the largest trades ever made, involving huge quantities of precious metals and bulk commodities.
Andy understands the market in a way many traders can’t imagine. He’s booked vessels, armored cars and trains to transport and store a wide range of commodities. And he’s worked directly with The United Nations and the legendary trading group Phibro.
Today, Andy remains in close contact with sources around the world and his network of traders.
“I have a vast Rolodex of information in my head… so many bull and bear markets. When something happens, I don’t have to think. I just react. History does tend to repeat itself over and over.”
His friends and mentors include highly regarded energy and precious metals traders, supply line specialists and international shipping companies that give him vast insight into the market.
Andy’s writing and analysis can be found on a number of market based websites including CQG. Andy lectures at colleges and Universities. He also contributes to Traders Magazine. He consults for companies involved in producing and consuming commodities. Andy's biweekly radio show, The Commodities Hour with Andy Hecht, can be heard on Tuesdays and Thursdays from 5-6 PM EST on www.tfnn.com. Andy’s first book How to Make Money with Commodities, published by McGraw Hill was released in 2013 and has received excellent reviews. He is currently working on his second book, Luster. Andy held a Series 3 and Series 30 license from the National Futures Association and is associated as a collaborator and strategist with hedge funds. Andy is the commodity-expert for the website about.com and blogs on his own site technomentals.com.
I am an investor.
I've written in years past about the investment implications of economic events, properly understood from the perspective of Austrian School thinking. Recently, I have revised my ideas somewhat. Today, I refer to the ideas I hold to in economics as "Austrian-Classical", thanks to the spectacular work of economist George Reisman. Dr. Reisman's masterpiece
"Capitalism", which consists of 1,100 pages of luminous explanation and reasoning, revised and improved my understanding in profoundly important ways.
In years past, I published articles for investment publications and newspapers, including an article in The International Advisor in August, 1984 predicting and explaining the basis for the long bull market in bonds; an article in The International Advisor in June, 1985 that explained why a big rally in foreign currencies was imminent; an article in The Market Chronicle of October 26, 1985 that explained why real estate prices across the country were about to decline; the front page article in Personal Finance, October 29, 1986 that explained why a major pause and correction in the bond bull market was about to occur; and an August 1986 editorial in the Orange County Register that explained why tax reform would boost the economy. I also published quite a few other articles recommending a few stocks and gold, based primarily on top down analysis.
My education was also helped enormously by Harry Browne, who never knew me. But I knew Mr. Browne, or imagined I did, having poured over every issue of his newsletter for about 25 years.
Now I hope to resume writing and active investment analysis. I have no blog yet, but I plan to create one soon.
Wholesale distributor to state and National Parks.
Involved for decades in the precious metals trading sector. Still enjoy the consideration and thought processes to keep me sharp...I thrive on learning and consider SA to be a superb resource for quality information. The differing perspectives and methodologies are intriguing and on occasion provide an insight I haven't previously utilized.
Best wishes to all,