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Deltascared

Deltascared
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  • Natural Gas futures decline further as inventory shows a less than expected draw [View news story]
    Correction -- The CME numbers seemed to have followed the EIA report and now show a decline of over a dime. That is substantial. Fifteen or twenty is a disaster.

    As for the report itself, go to the Energy Dept site and read it.

    We had huge inventory numbers and the mild first half help the inventories stay high.

    My problem is 1) that the feds should get numbers from within states like Texas.

    2) Nobody should have the report the night before.

    3) Additional information should be available so we don't have bears or bulls or commodity buyers operating on thin information.

    As for you burned folk:

    Ask anyone what another week or two like the last 14 days will do.

    Whether this survives contango or backwardation and etc. is another whole problem.
    Feb 26, 2015. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UGAZ Capitulates On 'The Bloodbath' - It's Time To Get Long [View article]
    You mean 50 cents or 50 dollars?
    Feb 26, 2015. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas futures decline further as inventory shows a less than expected draw [View news story]
    I couldn't believe how the market was using the report before release. Then some competitors for Alpha used it for their bear agenda.

    The EIA has a vested (excuse me, vestige) interest in orderly markets and low prices. That is bearish.

    If you call them, they will tell you that the bear reaction is overdone and possibly questionable.

    I believe that the report is being misread and misused.

    The Texas figures got lost and they are usually vague anyway.

    The price of such things as UNG, UGAZ et al may be very wrong. The CME NG numbers are inconsistent with the report and a crunch may be coming on these prices.

    They have good people working there who will make the thing better if they have a chance.

    Call and ask them

    Feb 26, 2015. 10:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UGAZ Capitulates On 'The Bloodbath' - It's Time To Get Long [View article]
    Emotionhigh -- There is a relationship between the fuels since they compete in commercial (i. e. utility) uses. One can be substituted for the other to generate heat. This is merely an opinion, but I wrote above that UGAZ would be at $50 or $100 if oil was still over $80. That being said, I have read that the US program of producing oil and Nat Gas is a roaring success. Even the EIA reports mention high production of oil and gas. That is the most salient influence for low UGAZ value. What will be interesting is the huge draws due to the cold East Coast and the effect on tomorrow's EIA report. Since even the bears see UGAZ as a short term and near horizon vehicle, it should fly upward. However, the price action for gas sales for March has been tepid, so maybe not. On your question, I saw UGAZ recover as oil solidified at $60 in the news. Who knows how related the events are? I don't.
    Feb 25, 2015. 08:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cold Weather Drove Up UNG - What's Next? [View article]
    The market knows about the draws in the last two or so weeks. The draws are huge. The scale is at least as idalporto, jaginger et al. described them. However, I have seen both a lag to heavy draws and a large, and possibly excessive, reaction when the EIA's report comes out as it does tomorrow. This is even more pronounced among the ETFs. Given my estimate of production figures, we BETTER have the confluence of factors described by brockreiss and not merely the normal kick of "spring demand" for prices to be flat now and curve upward. The same temps which drove prices of ETFs like UGAZ to about $40 last year have been present and will be publicized tomorrow. If the price of gas stays at $2.90 or so for March, and the ETFs stay low, the market seems well sated for the near term. This poses a real challenge to your conclusion.
    Feb 25, 2015. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UGAZ Capitulates On 'The Bloodbath' - It's Time To Get Long [View article]
    Gayle G. G. is smart. If the next (Feb 26) inventory report is weak we better have a March straight from Ice Station Zebra to hit $3.50 or so again. Being nimble is wise but that helps only if you are walking elsewhere at the right time. My expert said that UGAZ is down today since oil is tanking again. I had made the cynical comment that inventory numbers were leaked. Tomorrow will tell the tale. This nation is apparently producing oil and gas like we have a pipe going under the earth's crust to the Arab states. Hope they don't find out...
    Feb 25, 2015. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RGS Energy continues soaring after SA author makes bull case [View news story]
    I read and don't comment and sometimes buy. Yes, I do.

    Maybe Seeking Alpha needs to do a pump and dump to demonstrate.

    I will offer my help for a percentage of the take.

    LOL
    Feb 24, 2015. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'The Turn' Is Near For Natural Gas Pricing, Buy UGAZ [View article]
    I do it with the help of some guy from Penn State. Really.

    I have 10,000 shares of this junk and I have been around for some time.

    Of course, General Custer was riding high for a while...
    Feb 23, 2015. 06:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'The Turn' Is Near For Natural Gas Pricing, Buy UGAZ [View article]
    We need the Saudis to stop selling oil and the feds realize awful Nat Gas production for the environment..THEN you might hear a boom like sitting too close to a gas leak and lighting a match. He He
    Feb 23, 2015. 06:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo Has Warrants In The Money Which Could Bring More Funding [View article]
    Mr. Tjebarr -- Dilution is not usually a good thing unless the choice is between less money and no money for Sh. There are folks who bought not too long ago for 1/2 a dollar. I am in the 30 cent range somewhere. They have a new exec who may save this ship and knock out some value, however.
    Feb 23, 2015. 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Sputtering Action [View article]
    This thread needs some storytelling.

    DLMO --- Thank you for the NG type weather information. A couple of years ago, I was having a discussion with a gentleman who felt heating oil was going up. I said but..they are predicting a mild winter for the next month at least. He then added that forecasts were all BS anyway.

    I asked him how he would feel with the shoe on the other foot.

    What?

    Well, suppose you had a forecast for a few weeks of deep freeze and it was cold now. But I was betting against it. You would be smug, happy and..

    You would think me a moron. Which you do anyway.

    But do you ever wonder what the other players think of you?
    Feb 19, 2015. 06:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UGAZ Capitulates On 'The Bloodbath' - It's Time To Get Long [View article]
    Update to hangtight3!!!!

    Pray for some weather forecasters to be right and a massive blue, cold blob is coming down from Canada. I have been watching this for weeks. And if you thought this week was cold... e are taking even worse.

    Too bad oil is down or we would be looking at $50 to $100 for UGAZ. This will be exciting.
    Feb 18, 2015. 11:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Sputtering Action [View article]
    We are looking at a lag time for reports, as you indicated. I think the 19 has two (2) cold days. Then we have the 26th. The problem is that with too many weeks going by, we are heavily into March and the end of heating season and we have an ocean of oil. . Despite some forecasters calling for a cool March and April, I wouldn't want to be sitting on UGAZ on the anniversary of Caesar's murder. It still looks at this price, but who knows? I saw it running to $4 today on weather. Ha
    Feb 17, 2015. 01:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'The Turn' Is Near For Natural Gas Pricing, Buy UGAZ [View article]
    Read report and look at past weather.

    Prices can't rise because only half the nation is cold? If anyone bothers to check, they would see that a warm west while the east freezes is not unique or even anomalous. They may not rise but they should increase with high demand, even in only half the nation. BTW, the producers don't form their plans solely on the EIA report.

    As I read it, we do have good production but a marginal supply number in the east and north ...however, the words chosen in the report hint of an adequate supply and minimize the chance of a crunch.

    We will see.
    Feb 15, 2015. 06:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EIA Natural Gas Inventory [View news story]
    Dingo Joe might be right. But...If half the country covered in snow and freezing temps isn't enough to budge demand, I think we need a congressional examination of the folks doing the numbers. I accused them of lying based on someone else's opinion and I am sorry for it. However the gommit wants an orderly market and low prices...that is laudable but you shouldn't bend numbers for it.
    Feb 15, 2015. 05:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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