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Deltascared

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  • 12 Nonprofits to Receive Pro Bono Advice from Morgan Stanley’s Strategy Challenge [View article]
    I love you guys and I like MS. However, I would rather see a genius play to get the SP to $65 but God bless you for this noble undertaking.

    While you have the shining armor on...

    Now if you could just explain to most of the US population that MS and Wall Street did not mastermind and then effectuate the 2008 economic collapse by predatory lending, pressuring the government to make or back bad loans and then riding short positions to insane amounts of profit, you might save what we have left of capitalism.

    Please.
    Apr 7 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank of America (BAC) is engaged in "accounting arbitrage" says Manal Mehta, reserving far less for legal cases than it may have to pay out. If regulators forced the bank to properly account for the possible losses, it's likely they would disallow any capital returns and force BofA to continue socking away its profits. [View news story]
    Watch this impact the whole finance sector until next week that is.when investors realize that

    1) B of A is not the whole world.

    2) This writer may not be right. There is precedent for really large tales coming from the NYT.

    3) The NYT is nutty as a fruitcake at times and destroying the country with their comical bias and lies.

    I am not long B of A.
    Mar 6 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup: Destined To Double By 2014? [View article]
    Thanks for a focused, well written article with the courage of a conclusion. Like brave soldiers on a battlefield, those who step into the line of fire with real projections should be admired.

    As years go by...:

    First, MS and GS are subject to similar influences but are really in a different business than C, BAC et al. so comparing their general line numbers and ratios for projections is risky. Delve into their earnings sources and see if I don't have a point. They share the problem that recovering from write downs in REO, nonperforming loans and other red ink wells takes time.

    My ex wife is a very prominent bank analyst and I deeply admire and respect her personally. I don't bother to discuss her opinions on banks since it is like speaking to an economist. These institutions are so tied to formulas and currents in the general economy and government regulation that inspecting chicken entrails would likely tell you as much as her considerable expertise and information base. Her fortune was mostly made from investments in smaller banks with her using micro information and management to get good results.

    My local analyst feels the same way you do and projected a slightly longer term for SP to doubling and predicted that GS and MS would leave the woods first so Dr. Spider may have longer to wait. He also found $40 or better for MS by early 2014 and I jumped on buys and calls predicated on that. The problem is that 2016 may be the day for his number and 2018 could be the date for yours.
    Mar 6 10:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley: 4Q Results Mask 'The Pain Ahead' [View article]
    Does it pay?
    Feb 19 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley: 4Q Results Mask 'The Pain Ahead' [View article]
    This will amuse Alpha readers. I got an email from a lady I know accusing me of being connected to "Shock Exchange", the writer here.

    Well, I am as close to him as a citizen of the same country. And that is a guess on my part! He seems fine and has a theory. That is it.

    As for the slur that two of us are about knocking the MS SP number down. I am long MS with both options and shares. Honest. I am at $25 on options! LOL

    And lastly, the all time high for MS is not about $50 as most write and she said.

    I think it got around $80 or $85 on a ten or fifteen year chart. You can check the charts yourself since I was sloppy due to my disinterest in ancient history when it comes to share prices.

    I would love to see $85 for MS again but I would also like to be built like the latest James Bond. I'm working on it...
    Feb 19 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley: 4Q Results Mask 'The Pain Ahead' [View article]
    Yes! This is about the opposite from what I have been hearing and has a cognitive dissonance with what the press has been producing recently.

    We had Bloomberg write an article dated Dec 27th, 2012 on the fourth quarter burst after a sluggish 2012. Bloom said it pointed to a strong 2013. We had the source, AxialMarket, supply some suggestion of a lot of action.. Then there was Reuters with the deals of the day just... today.

    Shows you can't believe what you read.

    Or are you short somewhere?
    Feb 19 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "The Goldilocks era of post-crisis M&A has never been an if, but a when," says JPMorgan (JPM) vice-chair James Lee. "CEOs are declaring that day has come." Including the Berkshire buy, $40B in deals were announced yesterday and $140B this month. Transaction volume is up 27% Y/Y vs. an 8% slump for 2012. It should mean sweet profits for the newly lean banks. [View news story]
    There are about 15 reasons for all the M & A and looking to the idea that it is predicated on a market top is supported by history but is not the real impetus and probably not the most active ingredient.

    First, it just started. Let us see how long it lasts. We have another fiscal cliff and that could change lots of things.

    Then there is the little matter of a over a trillion in cash earning about enough to pay the finance staff to keep finding holes for it and spinning ideas to justify ducking the notion giving it to shareholders.

    Also, the bad loans and investments by the banks have begun to come into a clear scope and focus and the cleanup after the party and home giveaway theory of the last two decades is well under way. There were pronouncements from Fitch or some other umpire of MS in the last week or so on this very issue. Of course, the real work has been carried out over years.

    Here is the KEY:

    If the M & A continues or even builds and we avoid a collapse in Europe and somehow keep our taxing and spending in a comfort zone without having Moodys suggesting the purchase of firearms, canned goods and gold, the income to the banks will soar.

    The profits from M & A are considerable. With the potential volume sitting in the financial sector, (something nobody disputes) even a smoldering, singing fire will have a big impact. Then stocks like MS will do very well. A wildfire of M & A will be almost like giving the actors a key to Fort Knox. And in either case, the balance sheets will become palpably stronger so the red ink of the toxic past and the concomitant reserve concerns will rapidly pale.

    This will hold true even with some inflation worry or the inevitable comments about the giant sized noodle maker acquiring a flat bread plant expecting to produce earnings consistent with the makers of wedding cakes and caviar.

    Interesting.
    Feb 18 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley Management Hosts Fixed Income Investor Conference Call - Transcript [View article]
    This all makes sense to be but I like MS and the people there and I have put my money where my assessment is.

    No comments from all the MS haters out there?
    Feb 16 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 50 Fearless Predictions For 2013 [View article]
    This guy had guts.
    Feb 13 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are more gains in store for the banks after the President last night gave a push to the stalled Menendez-Boxer bill which would streamline the refinancing process for Fannie and Freddie borrowers? BAC +0.9%, C +0.3%, JPM +0.5% premarket (no trades for WFC). [View news story]
    The bill is a short term jolt for a number of interest groups. I am no expert. If your search Heritage dot org or other conservative web pages, the bill isn't very popular. To answer Mr. Fish, the bill is to allow people with underwater mortgages and possibly bad credit to refinance their homes which many shouldn't have qualified for in the first place.
    Feb 13 08:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Sell Apple [View article]
    I dumped AAPL at almost exactly the right time. I made money on both stock and options as it rose over $650 on positions I held for years. Then I left.

    Even the Roman Empire had limits. The $700 was a worry but I think we have too much negativity now.

    Fine company.
    Jan 24 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley Has 50% Upside Within 3 Years [View article]
    Tim Travis, have you seen the doom articles? Do you drink the same whiskey as my analyst? Think you are nuts? He says $40 plus by YE 14!

    I am sitting on options b/c of him. The $25 Jan 14. which was sunken to about 3 cents a few weeks ago from nearly $2 when I bought. MS actually seemed fairly valued in some types of analysis when sinking to $15! However, I avoided shooting him at that point so I guess it is all good from here.
    Jan 22 09:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas In 2013: It's Now A Trading Sardine [View article]
    1) Your use of the New York Times article is humorous. You are using a 2010 article to help a liberal president find an excuse to enforce bad rules. You use the article's comments from an EPA administrator on the subject of enforcing laws passed by liberal Democratic Congresses and given legal mandates by liberal judges. These same rules were not enforced by former President Bush who was a believer in global warm..er, climate change. So Bush was better at stopping tough restrictions? That is all I can conclude.

    2) You seem not to like "Journals". I am sure that you examined those I cited along with the energy industry's entire body of reporting on the subject of our current energy production and possible alternative development opportunities which are being smothered or kept dormant. I looked at them. The publications have a lot of facts, and have articles written by industry experts with education and experience and who work in the field every day. I'm sure they can't compare with where ever it was you went to school.

    3) The "anti-Obama" point I used on the "skyrocket" of prices came from President Obama on video.

    4) The paragraph where you deal with the controversial charge that President Obama is making energy more expensive is so convoluted that I will only say: " Consider President Obama's Energy Secretary, who said, "Somehow we have to figure out how to boost the price of gasoline to the levels in Europe." That's about $7 to $8 a gallon.
    And I've noted before the words of Alan Krueger of the Obama Treasury Department, who said, "The Administration believes that it is no longer sufficient to address our nation's energy needs by finding more fossil fuels...""

    THAT does not sound like people out for cheap energy or good news for companies like CHK or XOM, COP, BP, ECA..

    5) I am glad Solyndra makes you yawn. The half billion lost was chump change compared to the real impact of global warm..er climate change. But you are a big spender. You would not be too popular in some quarters with that attitude. The Republicans fret about our national debt, we have killings in Chicago in neighborhoods crying for more police and social intervention, the needs of the elderly poor, infrastructure repairs on hold and even people still suffering from Sandy after the Senate loaded a bill for relief with pork projects.

    6) And Volts are awesome? So all 26,000 of them potentially losing $49K a unit in a company held on life support with tax dollars? We sold 14.5 million cars in the US in 2012. And who can't grasp the "big picture"?

    7) The integrity of former Vice President Al Gore is important. He is a major proponent of green energy due to environmental and climate problems which I can't describe since his program has numerous features and is a moving target. He sold his TV network to an entity which is loaded with..(drumroll) OIL MONEY from the Mideast! Now I know this is a difficult problem for you but the Mideast oil princes love high prices and low US production. He also supported higher tax rates for wealthy Americans Fine. Then, it was alleged that he tried to close his deal before the recent tax increases went into effect. I don't know if that is true. I do know he has a 10,000 sq ft house, limos, a use of private jets and other rather profligate uses of energy. "The Associated Press reviewed the Gores’ energy bills and reported that the family consumed 191,000 kilowatt-hours in 2006. This was considerably more than the amount of electricity used by the typical house in Nashville, about 15,600 kilowatt-hours a year." This was from Fact check dot org, another partisan web site.

    He has done rehabbing but no other info is available.

    Finally, I do not hate our POTUS or anyone else. I just hoped for a debate on these issues. I would hope our leaders would weigh the opportunity now offered by the energy industry when we have a weak economy and Americans are suffering. " Any investment in any sector of the economy creates jobs." You mean for bankruptcy lawyers like the Solyndra mess? Think about that when you revere production as you say you do. .
    Jan 6 11:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas In 2013: It's Now A Trading Sardine [View article]
    At least I have "Journals" to quote.
    Jan 6 09:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas In 2013: It's Now A Trading Sardine [View article]
    "General Motors is years away from making money on the Chevy Volt, its electric plug-in hybrid. And a new report suggests that Chevy loses up to $49,000 on every Volt it produces." From Christian Science Monitor. Sept. 11, 2012

    BTW, we just set a record for snow cover in this hemisphere. Former Vice President Al Gore just sold his"Current " TV network to Al Jazzera.

    Al tried to close it before Obama raised taxes with this new year, even though Al supported "paying more". Al has made millions on his climate expertise even though he has no particular scientific training or knowledge.

    We are still headed for a terribly cold winter according to Weatherbell Analytics and Joe Bastardi. Their service costs $160 or so. The real cold will set in after Jan 15th. .
    Jan 6 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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