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Deltascared

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  • Fiscal cliff negotiations between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell hit a major snag after Republicans demand use of the "chained CPI" method for calculating entitlement benefits - which would result in lower payments for Social Security beneficiaries. Pres. Obama backed the provision previously, but Democrats now object to including it as part of a scaled-down deal. Updated 5:51 p.m.: The Senate won't vote tonight and will reconvene at 11 a.m. tomorrow, Reid says. [View news story]
    Was that a talking point, rhetorical question or do you want an answer?

    First, our president used to support the Republican position as do numerous other experts.

    Second, the 20 year estimate of solvency is, at best, questionable and probably very wrong.

    If you are sincere, why don't you do some research or check Paul Ryan's web site for an explanation?

    A bit:

    "Beginning in 2010, Social Security started paying out more in benefits than it collected in taxes – a trend that will skyrocket as the baby boomers continue to retire. In order to pay full benefits, the government must pay back the money it owes Social Security.

    Those who wish to solve this problem by raising taxes are ignoring the profound economic damage that such a large tax increases would entail. Just lifting the cap on income subject to Social Security taxes, as some have proposed, would, when combined with the Obama administration’s other preferred tax policies, lift the top marginal tax rate to over 50 percent. In reality, lifting the cap on income subject to Social Security will hurt the self employed – like many of the farmers and small business men and women in the First District – hardest as these individuals pay both the employee and employer share of the Social Security tax and further hamper the economic growth these individuals can provide.

    Most economists agree that raising marginal tax rates that high would create a significant drag on economic growth, job creation, productivity and wages. This nation cannot fix its retirement-security system by leaving young families with nothing to save."

    Nobody wants anything cut. See Greece and riots for more info there.
    Dec 31, 2012. 04:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just How Much Does Chesapeake Stand To Gain From Rising Gas Prices? [View article]
    I hate to admit it. But, Codetrader, yes, you smart dog, I have heard scary things like that myself. I am no numbers genius, but we better have a cold winter for CHK.

    I'm not going to recite what my analyst, who was bullish on CHK all along, is saying. He never gives up.

    So far, Mr. Bastardi of Penn State, who called for cold, is looking smart but the aggregate numbers don't seem to be pushing up the price of NG -- yet.

    BTW, if some of you are long term, like me, the same Mr. Bastardi has made a longer term prediction on global warming, er, climate change, and said that we are on a cooling trajectory. Actually, he doesn't seem to buy the narrative about AGC at all. To wit: His comment on former Vice President Al Gore was a bit strong. Apparently, Mr. Gore's crowing about the recent "super storm" was "stunningly ignorant or deceptive" in Mr. B's opinion. His firm is Weatherbell Analytics. He is knocked by academics as not being a climatologist himself.

    Of course, Gore made some huge amount of cash selling disaster with poor or average grades in a few simple science courses as his expertise.

    I don't know.
    Dec 31, 2012. 03:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fourteen banks are reportedly set to reach a $10B settlement with regulators over abusive foreclosure practices such as incorrect paperwork and excessive charges. The banks include the five that agreed to pay $26B in another deal earlier this year - JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C) and Ally Financial. The latest settlement will allow banks to end a review of 4M loan files that has cost 1.5B so far. [View news story]
    More great news for stockholders as this was going on for decades. Billions in fines and costs from the banks. To make a statement about corporate fraud, and to offer a lesson for the future, I hope some heads roll or have rolled in the bank's REO departments. And if some lawyer was involved or behind any of this, he should be disbarred and working in the fast food industry. I suspect that the elite banking law firms either created or knew all about the fraudulent practices and the bar associations or the state attorneys general should take appropriate action against their top dogs in real estate law.
    Dec 31, 2012. 03:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Chesapeake Shares Could Be Poised For A Sharp Rally Into January [View article]
    Russ Fischer..yes CHK has some earmarks of takeover bait.

    The problem is all the bad press and legal problems CHK has been fighting and the fact that the likely buyers who could swing it would probably have huge antitrust issues.

    If you review comments from management, the plan seems to be steady as she goes. They have removed a substantial amount of debt even though this is not a good time to be selling or borrowing if you are in NG. .

    I think they are waiting for prices to spike. Our anticipated terrible and cold winter has yet to arrive.

    Another nice Alpha article attempted to illuminate the income changes for CHK if NG prices rise. The SP upside, based on historic NG prices is considerable.
    Dec 2, 2012. 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just How Much Does Chesapeake Stand To Gain From Rising Gas Prices? [View article]
    3up3down has a good point on the debt milestone.

    The problem is that some cruel load like that is true of all firms but even more a factor in capital intensive operations and then worse, as he points out, in commodity producers.

    What I am wondering is whether CHK will ever break over the lower $20s in SP. It would probably take $100 oil and $7 or $8 NG.

    I would love to know how my analyst got a $40 share price on $5 NG prices for CHK. Looking backward, CHK was $70 or so with NG at $11, I think. But that was before all the wild stories.

    There is also the EPA with the antifracking crusaders that could have who knows what effect on CHK and the whole industry. The survivors generally do very well in such a situation.

    I did say the survivors.
    Nov 30, 2012. 12:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy (CHK): Q3 EPS of $0.10 in-line. Revenue of $3.0B (-25% Y/Y) beats by $600M. Results exclude noncash after-tax impairment of $2B tied to carrying value of natgas and oil properties. Shares +2.1% AH. (PR[View news story]
    Yes Zebra, good point!

    However, the loss was one time items.

    Compared to where this ship was, this stock should be $30 by now and $40 plus if we had anyone who understood capitalism running the show in Washington.
    Nov 1, 2012. 05:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Look To Chesapeake Energy For Your Predictions On Natural Gas Prices [View article]
    "Perfect storms" usually have three influences in the popular imagination.

    For NG we first have the classic cyclical overproduction of capitalism. The second part of this "mistake" by CHK is a recession followed by the slowest recovery by the US economy in history. Third, we have Washington launching a long term war with fossil fuels.

    CHK was certainly not alone in rosy projections in the past. Have you looked at reports on XOM's strategic planning and acquisitions?

    The energy industry are not the only fools in the room, either.

    The only hope for CHK is the cold winter coming and some pragmatic and aggressive political leadership to see that fossil energy might start the world economy moving a lot faster than crutches for dreamy social programs or forcing the economy to get healthy with technology that doesn't work to fight climate change or other environmental issues.

    If you think that is asking a lot, run the real numbers on where we are going if such moves are not made. Despite the efforts of FDR, we had World War II to pick us up in the 1930's and there is nothing like that on the horizon, thank God.
    Nov 1, 2012. 02:39 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Chesapeake Energy Now [View article]
    I like cheap gas and my big vehicles and my small car with a huge engine.

    But Stocknerd has a point. In most of the European and Asian countries Nat Gas is about triple what it costs here. One of the two running for president could help himself with an aggressive plan for energy. It is ironic that carbon energy is helping the administration when they would love to stamp it out.

    The feds could encourage export and then slap an export duty on any energy, but NG in particular, to pay down the national debt.

    They might even create some jobs and have more taxes rolling in.

    The idea that we have to impersonate the British or rest of the world is nuts. I have heard this about national health insurance and a host of other issues. National Public Radio had an article/segment on which candidate the world liked in our presidential election as though they knew anything about our challenges and goals.

    Selection of the European path can't work. . For one thing, the Germans would never agree to paying our bills!
    Oct 29, 2012. 07:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Chesapeake Energy Now [View article]
    Could this make your title work?

    An analyst I know took the figures from the first paragraph under the heading "Outlook" and adjusted them for four factors. Including reliance on NG, debt issues, growth prospects and scandals.

    Then he plugged in likely YE NG prices and revenue. He saw prospects as very strong.

    I do have a question: Where is all this projected growth coming from for CHK?

    I don't know how accurate it was but with a $5 NG price he hit a $45 SP for CHK if the debt and scandal issues are under control by YE 2012! You had better see more than a $5 price for NG to justify that.
    Oct 26, 2012. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Morgan Stanley Shares [View article]
    From Sensible Investor:

    "If nothing else, MS is worth more broken up and sold, rather than continuing to underperform in the shadow of its competitors Wells Fargo and JP Morgan, some 10X larger than their smaller, pitiful rival. Further, if Gorman isn't ousted soon, then the board is not serving clients, shareholders or other constituents well."

    I hold MS but I agree with every word.

    However, can't see $12 a share unless many things go the wrong way, including the Nov 6 election. My analyst swears to $40 or so by YE 14.
    Oct 23, 2012. 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy Is Cooking With Gas... And Oil [View article]
    pauliene -- US export energy? This has to happen with more stealth than our attack planes.

    Shipping energy to other countries is a political hand grenade. Cheap energy (which we have now) reduces costs and results in US goods which are cheaper to make and therefore aids the whole economy -- most intensely in terms of employment.

    Moreover, the media goes nuts on high gas prices (while never taking the long view for inflation or the real returns of big oil) and most US voters have no concept of what nat gas sells for abroad. We are close to a supply and price structure for Ng meriting export but don't expect too much.

    As for CHK? I made enough on stock to cover the anemic options and that is sure a long shot from the predictors of a $5 price.

    Now let us aim for $50!
    Oct 21, 2012. 12:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley - Investors Applaud The Bank's Strategic Direction, Despite A Pick Up In Trading Activity [View article]
    The next to the last paragraph by "Sensible Investor" seems to be the key.

    A MS cheerleader I know told me that $70 by year end 13 was possible but only with the strategy of a sale like "SI"so wisely mentioned.

    Otherwise, the range is generous at $20 to $30 and waiting for a sufficient turn around in light of the size and design of MS will take you to 2020.
    Oct 21, 2012. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Well Positioned To Rise On Natural Gas Rally [View article]
    I like this article but stocknerd -- you have ripped off the bark and reached the core of the limits on CHK growth.

    Nice going.

    Most experts believe it will stick above $3, though. eventual vehicle apps may be the reason.
    Oct 12, 2012. 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy Is Cooking With Gas... And Oil [View article]
    Marc:

    You sure had a point. CHK was a huge risk recently. However, even then, some of us believed that calls for it to crash to $5 were a little over the top. I took some other opinion and ran. I can still lose.


    We should keep two major things in mind. For one thing, NG was close to $1 just six or eight months ago as I recall. They had scandals and an inability to service debt and pay for drilling. The second of those probably drove Aubrey nuts.

    Those two are also are a one - two combo that killed many companies.

    If they are solved -- with NG running over $3 and rising --no wonder the stock is moving up. I don''t see a goldmine here, yet, we still have the rest of the minefield and a bad reputation. . My analyst said $45 by year end. I would celebrate that.

    I doubt that it will be reality but who knows? It is not looking like $5 is immediately ahead.
    Oct 12, 2012. 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake's Pending Investigations Create Risk [View article]
    Um, that remark was just kidding with a germ of truth in it.

    If you want insults, just ask.

    From Aaron Burr: "Thin skin can cost you a lot of blood."
    Oct 11, 2012. 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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