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Deltascared

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  • Don't Look To Chesapeake Energy For Your Predictions On Natural Gas Prices [View article]
    "Perfect storms" usually have three influences in the popular imagination.

    For NG we first have the classic cyclical overproduction of capitalism. The second part of this "mistake" by CHK is a recession followed by the slowest recovery by the US economy in history. Third, we have Washington launching a long term war with fossil fuels.

    CHK was certainly not alone in rosy projections in the past. Have you looked at reports on XOM's strategic planning and acquisitions?

    The energy industry are not the only fools in the room, either.

    The only hope for CHK is the cold winter coming and some pragmatic and aggressive political leadership to see that fossil energy might start the world economy moving a lot faster than crutches for dreamy social programs or forcing the economy to get healthy with technology that doesn't work to fight climate change or other environmental issues.

    If you think that is asking a lot, run the real numbers on where we are going if such moves are not made. Despite the efforts of FDR, we had World War II to pick us up in the 1930's and there is nothing like that on the horizon, thank God.
    Nov 1, 2012. 02:39 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Chesapeake Energy Now [View article]
    I like cheap gas and my big vehicles and my small car with a huge engine.

    But Stocknerd has a point. In most of the European and Asian countries Nat Gas is about triple what it costs here. One of the two running for president could help himself with an aggressive plan for energy. It is ironic that carbon energy is helping the administration when they would love to stamp it out.

    The feds could encourage export and then slap an export duty on any energy, but NG in particular, to pay down the national debt.

    They might even create some jobs and have more taxes rolling in.

    The idea that we have to impersonate the British or rest of the world is nuts. I have heard this about national health insurance and a host of other issues. National Public Radio had an article/segment on which candidate the world liked in our presidential election as though they knew anything about our challenges and goals.

    Selection of the European path can't work. . For one thing, the Germans would never agree to paying our bills!
    Oct 29, 2012. 07:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Chesapeake Energy Now [View article]
    Could this make your title work?

    An analyst I know took the figures from the first paragraph under the heading "Outlook" and adjusted them for four factors. Including reliance on NG, debt issues, growth prospects and scandals.

    Then he plugged in likely YE NG prices and revenue. He saw prospects as very strong.

    I do have a question: Where is all this projected growth coming from for CHK?

    I don't know how accurate it was but with a $5 NG price he hit a $45 SP for CHK if the debt and scandal issues are under control by YE 2012! You had better see more than a $5 price for NG to justify that.
    Oct 26, 2012. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Morgan Stanley Shares [View article]
    From Sensible Investor:

    "If nothing else, MS is worth more broken up and sold, rather than continuing to underperform in the shadow of its competitors Wells Fargo and JP Morgan, some 10X larger than their smaller, pitiful rival. Further, if Gorman isn't ousted soon, then the board is not serving clients, shareholders or other constituents well."

    I hold MS but I agree with every word.

    However, can't see $12 a share unless many things go the wrong way, including the Nov 6 election. My analyst swears to $40 or so by YE 14.
    Oct 23, 2012. 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy Is Cooking With Gas... And Oil [View article]
    pauliene -- US export energy? This has to happen with more stealth than our attack planes.

    Shipping energy to other countries is a political hand grenade. Cheap energy (which we have now) reduces costs and results in US goods which are cheaper to make and therefore aids the whole economy -- most intensely in terms of employment.

    Moreover, the media goes nuts on high gas prices (while never taking the long view for inflation or the real returns of big oil) and most US voters have no concept of what nat gas sells for abroad. We are close to a supply and price structure for Ng meriting export but don't expect too much.

    As for CHK? I made enough on stock to cover the anemic options and that is sure a long shot from the predictors of a $5 price.

    Now let us aim for $50!
    Oct 21, 2012. 12:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley - Investors Applaud The Bank's Strategic Direction, Despite A Pick Up In Trading Activity [View article]
    The next to the last paragraph by "Sensible Investor" seems to be the key.

    A MS cheerleader I know told me that $70 by year end 13 was possible but only with the strategy of a sale like "SI"so wisely mentioned.

    Otherwise, the range is generous at $20 to $30 and waiting for a sufficient turn around in light of the size and design of MS will take you to 2020.
    Oct 21, 2012. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Well Positioned To Rise On Natural Gas Rally [View article]
    I like this article but stocknerd -- you have ripped off the bark and reached the core of the limits on CHK growth.

    Nice going.

    Most experts believe it will stick above $3, though. eventual vehicle apps may be the reason.
    Oct 12, 2012. 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy Is Cooking With Gas... And Oil [View article]
    Marc:

    You sure had a point. CHK was a huge risk recently. However, even then, some of us believed that calls for it to crash to $5 were a little over the top. I took some other opinion and ran. I can still lose.


    We should keep two major things in mind. For one thing, NG was close to $1 just six or eight months ago as I recall. They had scandals and an inability to service debt and pay for drilling. The second of those probably drove Aubrey nuts.

    Those two are also are a one - two combo that killed many companies.

    If they are solved -- with NG running over $3 and rising --no wonder the stock is moving up. I don''t see a goldmine here, yet, we still have the rest of the minefield and a bad reputation. . My analyst said $45 by year end. I would celebrate that.

    I doubt that it will be reality but who knows? It is not looking like $5 is immediately ahead.
    Oct 12, 2012. 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake's Pending Investigations Create Risk [View article]
    Um, that remark was just kidding with a germ of truth in it.

    If you want insults, just ask.

    From Aaron Burr: "Thin skin can cost you a lot of blood."
    Oct 11, 2012. 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake's Pending Investigations Create Risk [View article]
    I know at least one person who thinks just like zebra 114.I tell them to talk to a professional but they will not go.
    Oct 9, 2012. 01:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake And GE's CNG In A Box Is Bullish For Chesapeake [View article]
    This story is better than a Hollywood action film. I am long CHK with both stock and options. The opts are probably going to be worthless.

    At any rate, this is a very nice article but you are at odds with the people who see the firm with too many fires on board.

    Somebody agrees with them or this stock would not be nearly flat in the range around or at $19 for weeks, even as Nat gas prices have increased.

    According to the Penn State expert, the Almanac, and a host of long term climate forecasters, we are due for a winter as cold as the Bible would describe. There is also a fundamentalist Christian minister who has the same prediction. Let us see where the product price goes and if CHK follows as we try to stay warm.

    I think we will see something positive start in Jan at the earliest. Then, in spring, when the problems have shrunken and the balance sheet looks good, we will have the growth in CHK. Unless someone sees it coming and buys it up beforehand.
    Oct 9, 2012. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake's Pending Investigations Create Risk [View article]
    Which will it be closer to, $50 per share or 0?
    Oct 7, 2012. 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake's Pending Investigations Create Risk [View article]
    So this stock will be worth zero by June of next year?
    Oct 7, 2012. 07:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Chesapeake And Get Rich: The Story Of Immense Energy Resources [View article]
    Coal? Forget the petitioners in bankruptcy. Check Walter Energy which, with a metallurgical focus, was supposed to the be the "good" and "safe" coal. It needs to be multiplied by oh, 5 or 6 to show a decent growth over the last few years.
    Oct 7, 2012. 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Chesapeake And Get Rich: The Story Of Immense Energy Resources [View article]
    This message is for the sane people here. There are many liabilities with CHK. Once the debt is under control and SEC problems resolved it would be a prime candidate for a major or syndication. As far as Ichan is concerned, he is not alone. There are at least six investment groups with pretty fair experts hanging around, in addition to the three or four waves of auditors that have combed the place in the last 18 months.

    The negative attitudes used to involve Aubrey going to Rio. Now they have morphed into a slow death for the company as a result of low prices or drowning in debt, or both. Such groups have experts which the individual investor couldn't touch.

    I believed in this firm when I did not have Ichan or anyone else interested. Of course, I missed the ride down from $74 so I did not have the worst perspective.

    At this juncture, either the Jan 14 calls or just buying stock seems reasonable. I am sitting on some 300 or 500 for Jan of 13 at $23 and $25 and I think they will be worthless. They are not my retirement fund or needed to buy food. An analyst who had good calls for me in the past felt that $45 would be reasonable for CHK by December of 2012. Nat Gas at $5.00 and quick sales were his assumptions. Either of them seem very optimistic unless we have a winter worse than I have been warned about.

    It has taken somewhat longer than expected to sell the assets and get the balance sheet under control. Reserves and resources are fine, although estimates. However, estimating the time factor and market price of a commodity is the real challenge in looking at CHK.

    In that way, the $30 call for Jan of 14 is a risk which may pay handsomely or not. I might take it, though.
    Oct 6, 2012. 09:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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