Ted Bear's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/959280/comments http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1034021?source=feed#comment-19001771 19001771
What is difficult to predict is when this will occur. We now even have some pudits suggesting that the "qantitative " will run out before the 'easing'. Regardless, the effect of no more rain will produce the same outcome.]]> Sun, 19 May 2013 14:54:55 -0400
What is difficult to predict is when this will occur. We now even have some pudits suggesting that the "qantitative " will run out before the 'easing'. Regardless, the effect of no more rain will produce the same outcome.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1029161?source=feed#comment-18889951 18889951
What's it worth five years from now? Struggles to turn a modest profit? Shares will be trading for five bucks or so.

But for now, it is all laughs and giggles.

BTW, i am VERY pleased that someone finally put together a decent electric automobile. Why Ford, GM or Toyota couldn't do this on a scale which pleased the broad market is another of those incredible mysteries of which life seems to be littered.]]> Thu, 16 May 2013 08:32:45 -0400
What's it worth five years from now? Struggles to turn a modest profit? Shares will be trading for five bucks or so.

But for now, it is all laughs and giggles.

BTW, i am VERY pleased that someone finally put together a decent electric automobile. Why Ford, GM or Toyota couldn't do this on a scale which pleased the broad market is another of those incredible mysteries of which life seems to be littered.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1028981?source=feed#comment-18888451 18888451
Didn't there used to be something called the SEC which frowned on this sort of pump and dump stuff?]]> Thu, 16 May 2013 07:49:31 -0400
Didn't there used to be something called the SEC which frowned on this sort of pump and dump stuff?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1024802?source=feed#comment-18824732 18824732
What he didn't say in the fine print is that his math means the already insurmountable deficit increases by $200 billion each period. And he didn't say what happens when the $85 billion/month infusion winds down......

That is the key question, I can keep a leaky ballon up for a LONG time as long as i keep adding helium. It is inevtiable, unless i fix the leak (which Congress has not even remotely considered the idea) that the balloon wil deflate once i stop adding helium.

Ditto BB, the punch bowl, and the market.]]> Tue, 14 May 2013 17:09:44 -0400
What he didn't say in the fine print is that his math means the already insurmountable deficit increases by $200 billion each period. And he didn't say what happens when the $85 billion/month infusion winds down......

That is the key question, I can keep a leaky ballon up for a LONG time as long as i keep adding helium. It is inevtiable, unless i fix the leak (which Congress has not even remotely considered the idea) that the balloon wil deflate once i stop adding helium.

Ditto BB, the punch bowl, and the market.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1023101?source=feed#comment-18802961 18802961
Certainly with equity prices fueling the wealth effect, preserving retirement plans for the greast unwashed, and saving corporate america in the face of declining sales, there would be no reason for the Fed to be concerned with the stock market.

Would there?]]> Tue, 14 May 2013 08:46:27 -0400
Certainly with equity prices fueling the wealth effect, preserving retirement plans for the greast unwashed, and saving corporate america in the face of declining sales, there would be no reason for the Fed to be concerned with the stock market.

Would there?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1023151?source=feed#comment-18802771 18802771
However, what happens when the Fed can no longer, for a variety of structural reasons, buy $500 Billion of debt every six months? The flip side of Teppers hypothesis is that, in his rosy case scenario of $400/$100 billion, is that the $100 billion gets added to an already game changing Federal Debt approaching $20 Trillion.

THAT sort of deficit has never bade well for any economy. What was the expression, we have the 'known knowns, the known unkowns...and then there are the unknown unknowns'. That is the frightening part.]]> Tue, 14 May 2013 08:40:14 -0400
However, what happens when the Fed can no longer, for a variety of structural reasons, buy $500 Billion of debt every six months? The flip side of Teppers hypothesis is that, in his rosy case scenario of $400/$100 billion, is that the $100 billion gets added to an already game changing Federal Debt approaching $20 Trillion.

THAT sort of deficit has never bade well for any economy. What was the expression, we have the 'known knowns, the known unkowns...and then there are the unknown unknowns'. That is the frightening part.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1019911?source=feed#comment-18718171 18718171
There were guys like Jack Welch, Sandy Weill, and that guy from AIG who drove great companies into the ground--all the while they got folks to think they were the greatest managers ever to walk across the face of the earth. Turns out they took an entire economy down the drain, while they made themselevs filthy rich.

Too many little things..and not so little, really, are starting to pop up under Dimon's watch. This guy could turn out to be just as evil as the guys which society previously lauded as having been 'great managers'. Dimon comes across as being very believable and sincere...the old Warren Buffet 'aw shucks', but then we have the London Whale, the commodity trading, the gold puke, the silver corner...and????? You don't just lose billions and get away with saying it was just small peanuts and i was too busy with other things.

If i was the board and my management made a threat like Dimon has supposedly just made, i think his office would be empty on Monday. Nobody is THAT good.]]> Sat, 11 May 2013 18:21:05 -0400
There were guys like Jack Welch, Sandy Weill, and that guy from AIG who drove great companies into the ground--all the while they got folks to think they were the greatest managers ever to walk across the face of the earth. Turns out they took an entire economy down the drain, while they made themselevs filthy rich.

Too many little things..and not so little, really, are starting to pop up under Dimon's watch. This guy could turn out to be just as evil as the guys which society previously lauded as having been 'great managers'. Dimon comes across as being very believable and sincere...the old Warren Buffet 'aw shucks', but then we have the London Whale, the commodity trading, the gold puke, the silver corner...and????? You don't just lose billions and get away with saying it was just small peanuts and i was too busy with other things.

If i was the board and my management made a threat like Dimon has supposedly just made, i think his office would be empty on Monday. Nobody is THAT good.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1011831?source=feed#comment-18603021 18603021 Wed, 08 May 2013 20:08:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1001811?source=feed#comment-18512901 18512901
Months ago they issued a profit warning, and the shares went up.

Now, they miss earnings by a huge margin, and the shares barely flinch.

Some day some of these things will matter.

But for today? Not so much.]]> Mon, 06 May 2013 18:52:07 -0400
Months ago they issued a profit warning, and the shares went up.

Now, they miss earnings by a huge margin, and the shares barely flinch.

Some day some of these things will matter.

But for today? Not so much.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/998941?source=feed#comment-18428341 18428341
And then?> OMG, the exits will look like pinholes. ]]> Fri, 03 May 2013 21:02:54 -0400
And then?> OMG, the exits will look like pinholes. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/995531?source=feed#comment-18397131 18397131
Maybe i was naive, but i have thought, even through the London Whale thing, that Jamie Dimon was cut from a special cloth. A decent person. Moral. Unique in his desire to do well by doing right.

It turns out he is just like the worst of them: say whatever you have to, but do whatever you can to make money. No regard for moral fiber, or the laws of the land.

Jamie is done. Throw him on the heap with the worst of the Jack Welch's, the Maurice Greenberg's and the Sandy Weill's. They burned the trust which people gave them, and now live a (rich) exile still pretending to be something they never were.]]> Fri, 03 May 2013 08:56:29 -0400
Maybe i was naive, but i have thought, even through the London Whale thing, that Jamie Dimon was cut from a special cloth. A decent person. Moral. Unique in his desire to do well by doing right.

It turns out he is just like the worst of them: say whatever you have to, but do whatever you can to make money. No regard for moral fiber, or the laws of the land.

Jamie is done. Throw him on the heap with the worst of the Jack Welch's, the Maurice Greenberg's and the Sandy Weill's. They burned the trust which people gave them, and now live a (rich) exile still pretending to be something they never were.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/995531?source=feed#comment-18394191 18394191
Even more sadly, these practice have become so widespread that even the people we employ to curb them are more a part of the problem than they are of the solution.

I think they call it morally bankrupt....probably right on both counts.]]> Fri, 03 May 2013 07:17:27 -0400
Even more sadly, these practice have become so widespread that even the people we employ to curb them are more a part of the problem than they are of the solution.

I think they call it morally bankrupt....probably right on both counts.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/984921?source=feed#comment-18294921 18294921
We have hardly seen a decent earnings report, and there have been plenty of downright gawd awful reports...all of which have been a 'reason' to go buy more. That sort of illogical logic is just the very thing which leads to a LOT of miserable people.

Bernanke told us...he doesn't target asset prices, and barely knows that the market is up.....

I'd be a seller of that statement as well.

Funyy..i just moved on to another thread, and what does this guy say (Which hasn't mattered a hoot thus far, and won't--until it does):

http://seekingalpha.co...]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 20:38:51 -0400
We have hardly seen a decent earnings report, and there have been plenty of downright gawd awful reports...all of which have been a 'reason' to go buy more. That sort of illogical logic is just the very thing which leads to a LOT of miserable people.

Bernanke told us...he doesn't target asset prices, and barely knows that the market is up.....

I'd be a seller of that statement as well.

Funyy..i just moved on to another thread, and what does this guy say (Which hasn't mattered a hoot thus far, and won't--until it does):

http://seekingalpha.co...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/984921?source=feed#comment-18294831 18294831
We have hardly seen a decent earnings report, and there have been plenty of downright gawd awful reports...all of which have been a 'reason' to go buy more. That sort of illogical logic is just the very thing which leads to a LOT of miserable people.

Bernanke told us...he doesn't target asset prices, and barely knows that the market is up.....

I'd be a seller of that statement as well.]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 20:35:19 -0400
We have hardly seen a decent earnings report, and there have been plenty of downright gawd awful reports...all of which have been a 'reason' to go buy more. That sort of illogical logic is just the very thing which leads to a LOT of miserable people.

Bernanke told us...he doesn't target asset prices, and barely knows that the market is up.....

I'd be a seller of that statement as well.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/983861?source=feed#comment-18288381 18288381
You know you are in moments of extreme exuberance when missing doesn't even dent the share price.

But in the end......]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 17:15:48 -0400
You know you are in moments of extreme exuberance when missing doesn't even dent the share price.

But in the end......]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/970921?source=feed#comment-18097911 18097911 Thu, 25 Apr 2013 16:16:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/958531?source=feed#comment-17956241 17956241
The 'marklet' is where it is because the Fed has opened the spogit wide, at zero short term cost to the nation. While it is true that the majority of portfolio managers underperform (which is why it pays to own unmanaged indices, btw), it is fair to give them a bit of a break ( I never thought i would say that!) this time around. They are looking at weak fundamentals, high unemployment, huge deficits, the worst of political shenanigans in Washington, and conlcuding, probably correctly (yes, i know all about the wall of worry), that this is not a good time to be overweight equities. When a market is detached from the fundamentals it is probably a good time to disengage. They won't be correct until the punch bowl is withdrawn or the nation finally recognizes that it is kaput: but when it does, the exit doors from the 'market' will be boarded shut.

Caveat Emptor (and enjoy the ride if you think you are quick enough to get through the door before it closes). ]]> Mon, 22 Apr 2013 20:03:21 -0400
The 'marklet' is where it is because the Fed has opened the spogit wide, at zero short term cost to the nation. While it is true that the majority of portfolio managers underperform (which is why it pays to own unmanaged indices, btw), it is fair to give them a bit of a break ( I never thought i would say that!) this time around. They are looking at weak fundamentals, high unemployment, huge deficits, the worst of political shenanigans in Washington, and conlcuding, probably correctly (yes, i know all about the wall of worry), that this is not a good time to be overweight equities. When a market is detached from the fundamentals it is probably a good time to disengage. They won't be correct until the punch bowl is withdrawn or the nation finally recognizes that it is kaput: but when it does, the exit doors from the 'market' will be boarded shut.

Caveat Emptor (and enjoy the ride if you think you are quick enough to get through the door before it closes). ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/955281?source=feed#comment-17848191 17848191 Fri, 19 Apr 2013 16:19:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/950131?source=feed#comment-17765691 17765691
Revenue growth (or lack thereof), trillion dollar deficits (with interest rates at zero), poor market breadth, low volume, failure to make new highs by too many stocks, non-confirmations by MANY markets (NASDAQ and Transportations, for Instance), high unemployment, NO job creation even though we are pumping a trillion dollars a year into the economy, political shenanigans which have created HUGE wealth inequities, unpunished criminal behavior (think MF Golbal (stealing customer funds), BAC (fraud in the purchase of Merrill) or MS (insider trading by the CEO) and a host of other things which 'dont matter because it is different this time'.

It isn't different this time, but maybe the timing is different. Free money for four years has attempted to mask the message, but that we face the same environment with the same likely consequences as we did in the thrities is unavoidable. THAT is the message which copper is delivering. That is the message that gold sent this past week: We are in a deflationary environement, which is a horror show of unequaled proportions to the Fed. When you are borrowed up the kazoo, what is the BEST antidote to your problems? Inflation, and we aint got none.

If you are not listening, or pretending not to hear it, you do so at your own peril.]]> Wed, 17 Apr 2013 20:59:33 -0400
Revenue growth (or lack thereof), trillion dollar deficits (with interest rates at zero), poor market breadth, low volume, failure to make new highs by too many stocks, non-confirmations by MANY markets (NASDAQ and Transportations, for Instance), high unemployment, NO job creation even though we are pumping a trillion dollars a year into the economy, political shenanigans which have created HUGE wealth inequities, unpunished criminal behavior (think MF Golbal (stealing customer funds), BAC (fraud in the purchase of Merrill) or MS (insider trading by the CEO) and a host of other things which 'dont matter because it is different this time'.

It isn't different this time, but maybe the timing is different. Free money for four years has attempted to mask the message, but that we face the same environment with the same likely consequences as we did in the thrities is unavoidable. THAT is the message which copper is delivering. That is the message that gold sent this past week: We are in a deflationary environement, which is a horror show of unequaled proportions to the Fed. When you are borrowed up the kazoo, what is the BEST antidote to your problems? Inflation, and we aint got none.

If you are not listening, or pretending not to hear it, you do so at your own peril.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/934611?source=feed#comment-17439711 17439711 Wed, 10 Apr 2013 07:02:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/929551?source=feed#comment-17331751 17331751 Sun, 07 Apr 2013 19:25:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/929201?source=feed#comment-17285961 17285961
We give Yankee bucks for any garbage you can drag in.

Problem solved.....until judgement day--whenever that might be.]]> Fri, 05 Apr 2013 17:56:20 -0400
We give Yankee bucks for any garbage you can drag in.

Problem solved.....until judgement day--whenever that might be.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/927151?source=feed#comment-17242501 17242501
That it has gone on this long just amazes me, but human behavior is very hard to predict. Just look at the stock market...is there a soul alive who doesn't know that it is a levitation job by the Fed? And one day we will wake up, quite innocuously, and things will have fallen down limit. Not because there was some particular news, but because 'everyone' (the collective crowd) had a change of heart. Human behavior....an ellusive concept to predict.]]> Thu, 04 Apr 2013 20:28:11 -0400
That it has gone on this long just amazes me, but human behavior is very hard to predict. Just look at the stock market...is there a soul alive who doesn't know that it is a levitation job by the Fed? And one day we will wake up, quite innocuously, and things will have fallen down limit. Not because there was some particular news, but because 'everyone' (the collective crowd) had a change of heart. Human behavior....an ellusive concept to predict.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/927151?source=feed#comment-17241801 17241801
I give you MF Global, where customer funds were used for in-house gambling, and did Jon Corzine, or anyone else for that matter, ever spend a night in jail?

And what did Goldman pay for defradung people of billions in the mortgage market? A paltry $500 million or something similiar, and Blankfein was never even close to wearing the iron hand cuffs.

You want to clean up these banks, and our financial system? Put the exectuves in jail for 25 years, fine the companies a year or two of earnings, and make it come from the executives--not the shareholders.

That will solve a LOT of the regulatory shortcomings.]]> Thu, 04 Apr 2013 20:06:50 -0400
I give you MF Global, where customer funds were used for in-house gambling, and did Jon Corzine, or anyone else for that matter, ever spend a night in jail?

And what did Goldman pay for defradung people of billions in the mortgage market? A paltry $500 million or something similiar, and Blankfein was never even close to wearing the iron hand cuffs.

You want to clean up these banks, and our financial system? Put the exectuves in jail for 25 years, fine the companies a year or two of earnings, and make it come from the executives--not the shareholders.

That will solve a LOT of the regulatory shortcomings.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/908861?source=feed#comment-16800401 16800401
You heard Benanke..."we don't try to influence assets prices"...but he sure knew an awful lot about the exact performance of the stock market bubble he has created.]]> Mon, 25 Mar 2013 20:00:55 -0400
You heard Benanke..."we don't try to influence assets prices"...but he sure knew an awful lot about the exact performance of the stock market bubble he has created.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/890101?source=feed#comment-16299021 16299021 Thu, 14 Mar 2013 18:00:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/884421?source=feed#comment-16201491 16201491 Maybe earnngs are slightly better, and maybe employment is slightly better, and maybe the disasters off the large banks balance sheets are helping, but at the end of the day, you show me three trillion dollars in zero cost moeny and i'll show you a good time.

The punch bowl can stay a LONG time, and the levitation can last a long time, but in the end, you remove the free money and things will find an appropriate 'natural' level.

That, folks, is what copper is telling us. And has been telling us throughout the last several months.]]> Tue, 12 Mar 2013 18:33:10 -0400 Maybe earnngs are slightly better, and maybe employment is slightly better, and maybe the disasters off the large banks balance sheets are helping, but at the end of the day, you show me three trillion dollars in zero cost moeny and i'll show you a good time.

The punch bowl can stay a LONG time, and the levitation can last a long time, but in the end, you remove the free money and things will find an appropriate 'natural' level.

That, folks, is what copper is telling us. And has been telling us throughout the last several months.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/878341?source=feed#comment-16061001 16061001 Fri, 08 Mar 2013 20:44:10 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/876961?source=feed#comment-16026941 16026941
Do the math.....annulaized, that 's about $1.4 MM per job.......

We're doing fine.

You want fries with that?]]> Fri, 08 Mar 2013 09:19:22 -0500
Do the math.....annulaized, that 's about $1.4 MM per job.......

We're doing fine.

You want fries with that?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/875761?source=feed#comment-16010381 16010381
And if Uncle Warren said their capital is fine....well, then it must be so, right?]]> Thu, 07 Mar 2013 20:14:00 -0500
And if Uncle Warren said their capital is fine....well, then it must be so, right?]]>