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  • "The king is dead, long live the king," Doug Kass declares on CNBC (video) following Apple's (AAPL -12.3%) FQ1 report. Kass, no stranger to criticizing Apple, foresees "a new normal" of slow growth and lower multiples. Sell-side loyalists are counting on some mixture of new iPhones, a retina iPad Mini, carrier partnerships, and an iTV to reignite growth. Canaccord: “The timing of new products that could excite the market is going to be key to whether the stock continues to go down." (more) (transcript[View news story]
    Actually Krichard, AAPL might never have gotten to an absurd $700 price had it not been for the cheer-leading of CNBS. Their incessant rah-rah'ing, with Crammers comments for good measure, created a frenzy of hysteria which many apparently fell victim to.

    Of course, unlike other 'analysts', CNBS is seemingly immune for their stock hyping behaviors.
    Jan 24, 2013. 08:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A volatility bull (and sort of stock market bear) throws in the towel, with MKM's Jim Strugger warming up to the "new reality of a lower volatility regime and its implications." A new era of fundamental analysis without fear of the macro environment is upon us, he says. Three weeks ago (and for the last several years), he sang a different tune.  [View news story]
    The background doesn't matter until it matters.

    However painful it is to be mindful of it when investing in the stock market, the facts still remain that our government has left the building with nearly $17 trillion in debts.

    That bill has to be reconciled at some point. Just saying it no longer matters doesn't make it go away.

    It WILL matter at some point.
    Jan 24, 2013. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Apple's (AAPL) FQ1 call: Tim Cook mentions over 2M Apple TVs were sold in the quarter, and asserts the TV is "an area of intense interest" (previous). The new iMac was also heavily supply-constrained during the quarter. The mix of current to prior-gen iPhone sales was similar to a year ago. CFO Peter Oppenheimer says new stock buybacks is something Apple continually assesses. This could be a good time for one. (live blog) (more on Apple[View news story]
    You sell puts and you WILL be accumulating stock. Maybe we get a bounce at the 426 trend line, but with nothing new in the pipeline, these guys are going to do an HPQ for years to come.

    Sad, but was there ever a growth company that didn't go through this? For Apple, this will be the second time around, but no Steve J to bail them out this time around.
    Jan 23, 2013. 08:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Three members of Sirius XM Radio's (SIRI -0.6%) board resign in an unsurprising development after the company lost control of itself to Liberty Media. Leon Black, Lawrence Gilberti, and Jack Shaw stepped down to be replaced by Liberty-affiliated Mark Carleton, Robin Pringle, and Charles Tanabe.  [View news story]
    Yes, i do. It wouldn't take much to build a sales and marketing organization for a good product like they have. Throw on some customer service, and i think they could improve by leaps and bounds. The guy who just took over has been sleeping there for years......maybe his job is next.
    Jan 23, 2013. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Three members of Sirius XM Radio's (SIRI -0.6%) board resign in an unsurprising development after the company lost control of itself to Liberty Media. Leon Black, Lawrence Gilberti, and Jack Shaw stepped down to be replaced by Liberty-affiliated Mark Carleton, Robin Pringle, and Charles Tanabe.  [View news story]
    Their biz can't get any worse. They have a GREAT product, but are really lost when it comes to delivering it, and providing customer service. If they got their act together, or had management in place who knew how to run the thing, it could really scream.

    Maybe the new owners understand that SIRI is a diamond in the rough which has suffered from poor management and poor execution?
    Jan 23, 2013. 03:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs commodities strategist Jeff Currie causes a stir by saying he wouldn't be surprised “if we woke up in summer and oil cost $150" a barrel. In December, the firm's official forecast for 2013 was ~$100/bbl. Currie says that despite the boom in U.S. shale gas, the oil price remains high, which he attributes primarily to sanction-related supply disruptions in Iran.  [View news story]
    Yup......didn't they try to get out once before with this sort of call?

    Remember the bond call from 2012? Ten year was at 2.40% or so and they made the 'short of the century' call.

    Probably one of the worst of a bad series of calls that they have ever made.......
    Jan 18, 2013. 09:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of Herbalife (HLF) are getting a bump in after hours trade on the back of comments made by trader Karen Fineman on CNBC's show Fast Money. Fineman suggested that it's possible that long holders like Dan Loeb could ignite a short squeeze by pulling their stock from margin. Shares +1% AH.  [View news story]
    Nah......this is the normal part of any good short trade.

    The original shorts do the homework and put the trade on.

    Then, every tom, dick and harry piles on.

    The 'longs' get sick of hearing the touts from the shorts, so they pull their stock loans.

    Huge buy-ins of the retail shorts results in a skyrocketing price. Easily a double. Sometimes a LOT more if it is a good corner.

    The longs sell into the squeeze.

    The original shorts were protected in a variety of ways during the buy ins.

    The original idea makers make a tidy sum, as the stock goes to zero.

    Of course, every situation is different. Sometimes it results in a standoff after all of the above. The longs won't sell; the shorts won't cover.
    Jan 15, 2013. 08:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dell's (DELL +7%) LBO price is in a range of $13.50-$14/share, David Faber reports. Interestingly, he adds Silver Lake and other investors are only putting in ~$2B apiece. For that to be true, Dell (current market cap of $22.9B) would be relying on quite a few investors, even after accounting for Michael Dell's 15.7% stake. Shares -0.6% AH. Update: Faber clarifies the equity component of the deal is $2B. He also claims Dell's offshore cash will be repatriated. (Reuters[View news story]
    Big difference between Crammer, and Faber:

    Faber reports......(and does a very good job at it, IMHO)

    Crammer recommends.....(and has a really lousy track record)

    If you are using either one of them as information sources on which to trade, you deserve to get hosed.
    Jan 15, 2013. 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's (AAPL) shares are -3.4% premarket following reports that the company has cut iPhone 5 component orders for calendar Q1 due to weaker-than-expected demand. That's possibly helping to depress sentiment on the stock-futures market, with the Nasdaq benchmark -0.4%. The Dow is flat and the S&P is +0.1%, while Europe remains mostly in the green.  [View news story]
    One of the largest cap companies in the world; more analysts covering this company that any other.

    And yet, which could be the case with this story today, the analysts don't come within a mile of getting the estimates correct.

    How difficult can it be to count widgets?
    Jan 14, 2013. 08:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's (AAPL) shares are -3.4% premarket following reports that the company has cut iPhone 5 component orders for calendar Q1 due to weaker-than-expected demand. That's possibly helping to depress sentiment on the stock-futures market, with the Nasdaq benchmark -0.4%. The Dow is flat and the S&P is +0.1%, while Europe remains mostly in the green.  [View news story]
    I have been thinking for some time that the 'wash out' price will be around $475. We might get there after hours when some can't trade it, and then we start the 'chase it higher' syndrome all over again.
    Jan 14, 2013. 07:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shanghai Evening News, the Chinese paper that yesterday published an interview with Apple (AAPL) marketing chief Phil Schiller, has revised the interview's text to remove remarks about how a cheap iPhone "will never be the future of Apple's products." Now, Schiller is simply quoted as saying Apple will "never blindly pursue market share," and is focused on making "the best products." That leaves some leeway for WSJ/Bloomberg reports about a low-cost iPhone project to pan out.  [View news story]
    Regardless, AAPL needs to come up with a new product, and something clever, pretty quickly or they are going to get fried in the phone wars.

    Let's see if that $475 level holds on the stock, or this thing will become a death spiral.
    Jan 11, 2013. 08:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "The banks will not get this country in trouble, I guarantee it," says major bank investor Warren Buffett. "The capital ratios are huge, the excesses on the asset side have been largely cleared out," he adds, seemingly making more of a case for the debt and the preferred, rather than the common equity. He's in no hurry to convert his Bank of America (BAC) preferred and says if the bank wants to call it, it's free to do so.  [View news story]
    Very prescient.

    Now that the entire herd is gone, the corral has rotted to the ground, and the barn has been leveled, Uncle Warren comes along to tell us that the herd will never escape again.

    And those hundreds of trillions in derivatives that were conveniently slipped off the bank's balance sheets wont matter when the Fed removes the punch bowl and interest rates start to rise?

    Nah......never happen.

    Uncle Warren told you so.....while he secretly pleaded for BAC to call his paper.
    Jan 10, 2013. 08:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Herbalife (HLF) story may be getting even more fun, with the NYPost reporting on the "Ackman sandwich," but today is the company's turn to speak. Its investor presentation beings at 9 ET. Dancing around a lot of questions on CNBC, President Des Walsh says Ackman's thesis is a "gross distortion of reality." Shares +4.5% premarket.  [View news story]
    Trading on the short side of the market has a life all of its own.

    The next step for all of these late longs will be to pull the loans on their shares, likely setting off a squeeze of epic proportions.

    I am surprised that Ackman, for all of his supposed savvy, did not understand more of what he was getting into when he went public with his short HLF idea. It could have been a very nice money maker if he had just kept quiet and let the shares naturally erode.

    Now he is fighting demons much larger than simply HLF, and they play for keeps. Oh the margin calls!
    Jan 10, 2013. 07:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The AIG board has 3 options, says the company in a statement: 1) Take over the Starr (Greenberg) lawsuit against the U.S. 2) Stand in Greenberg's way (and likely face a lawsuit by him). 3) Allow Greenberg to move forward on AIG's behalf. "The (board) has fiduciary and legal obligations to the company and its shareholders to consider (Greenberg's demand) and respond in a fair, appropriate, and timely manner." (earlier[View news story]
    And who is Starr?

    Well, that would be old Hank Greenberg, the guy who ran AIG into the ground to begin with.

    I have a solution: why don't we send the bill for rescuing the entire financial system to Greenberg. Let him stew on that for a while and see if he thinks that AIG got one hell of a bargain.

    We ought to have let them fail, and taken the rest of the rats down with the ship.

    Instead, we have spent trillions, and still have a zombie financial system, a broke government, huge unemployment, and no economic growth.

    What's that worth Hank? And Sandy? And Jack?
    Jan 8, 2013. 09:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bloomberg has discovered a secretive Goldman Sachs (GS) department called Multi-Strategy Investing (MSI) that has no clients and uses the bank's funds to invest in stocks and bonds. While MSI doesn't trade in and out of positions on a daily basis, it sells most assets after a few months. The activities seem to somewhat fly in the face of Lloyd Blankfein's assertion in July that Goldman no longer carries out proprietary trading.  [View news story]
    So now we understand more fully why their stock recommendations meet with selling: MSI has a bad position, better recommend the stock. Price goes up, MSI starts dumping. Lemmings left holding the bag....
    Jan 8, 2013. 06:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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