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Ted Bear

Ted Bear
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  • Alibaba prices IPO at $68 [View news story]
    Got to love this one.....

    Nothing but bulls for a middleman....

    Whose primary business is as an agent in China....

    But is incorporated in the Cayman Islands...

    Which Company owns the assets in China....

    Which might not be legal...the "Foreign Ownership Issue"....

    And listed in the United States...

    But the books are 100% accurate, I am sure!

    Good luck all! Might want to take some off the table tomorrow at $90.....
    Sep 18, 2014. 05:44 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks pop as Hilsenrath says dovish Fed language to stay [View news story]
    This is better than Goldman adjusting their jobs numbers on the eve before the release. That hasn't been particularly accurate either.
    Sep 16, 2014. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch: Disruptive, Profitable, And Yes, The Next Big Thing [View article]
    Well, this is going to create a very interesting era at Apple. That watch thing just might be the first flop in a long time for Apple, and how they react to it will be interesting. How many re-designs? How much marketing? How many dollars before they write it off like "new Coke"...or was it "Classic Coke"? I know we have seen that thing before, and yes, there was then, as there will be now, a certain cadre of folks who "just have to have one".

    But at first glance, it is a real howler which better quickly have amazing technological capabilities, or it is going to bring Apple's stellar reputation for genius in design and marketing to its knees.

    Smart management will give it till then end of 2015...maybe the Christmas selling season, before they put it out of its misery.

    Prediction: Expensive Toast.
    Sep 9, 2014. 08:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RadioShack bankruptcy imminent, Wedbush says [View news story]
    It never ceases to amaze me how a company like Radio Shack...and Motorola, or Nokia, for that matter, can be SO far ahead of the curve in their product area, and then silently watch as the train pulls out of the station without them. Since I was a small child, Radio Shack has stood for all things electronic--yet the entire electronics revolution has somehow managed to pass them by.

    Sad in a way to see them fail, but how utterly incompetent does management have to be to take a company which stood for an entire era of invention and growth and not be clever enough to stay in business, let alone thrive?
    Sep 9, 2014. 07:52 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors sell the news on Apple [View news story]
    Walking into the jaws of opportunity with the payment stuff. That is a deep pool, with plenty of sharks.


    I-watch...nope. DOA. Probably ought to buy one so you can sell it as a collectors item down the road.
    Sep 9, 2014. 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. banks to be hit with tougher capital rule [View news story]
    I haven't done the numbers recently, but there were roughly $750 trillion notional in derivatives outstanding, much of which was written against the credit of the major global banks.

    So, if it WERE (its not the way the reserve/capital requirement is calculated) to happen that we included an extra 200 BP hair-cut against this amount we would need an extra 1.5 TRLLION in capital, as opposed to the current requirement......which is just a tiny fraction of the "needed" reserves.

    Point being.....if you are going up the creek, is an extra 200 basis points going to have any real "insulative" value when TSHTF? During the next crunch (to quote Hank Paulson in his plea to Congress to save/enrich Goldman), these banks will be history by sundown--200BP increase in reserves, or not.
    Sep 9, 2014. 12:35 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's iWatch Isn't A Guaranteed Home Run [View article]
    Not something you probably want to bet against, but the law of averages......can be nasty from time to time.

    AAPL has defined every market they have entered. With Steve Jobs at the helm.

    Just saying...and watching. Trading short is covered.......perhaps look to put it out again if there is some silly price action tomorrow.
    Sep 8, 2014. 08:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Loving The Leverage: Citigroup [View article]
    It's all good except for trying to value the warrants against what "book value" might be---at any point in time.

    For reference, take a look at the little shenanigan that Goldman just pulled with Espirito Santos.

    There is roughly one billion dollars on the line...and none of it ever appeared on ANY balance sheet.
    Sep 2, 2014. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks finish flat in another day of piddling volume [View news story]
    Piddling volume.....the doorway gets narrower and narrower. The punch bowl is dwindling. The patrons are sloshed. And getting through that smaller and smaller door is getting more and more challenging.

    But who cares?

    Bonds at 2.35% aren't trying to tell the guests anything, are they?
    Aug 27, 2014. 04:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup Offering Potential Gains For The Bold [View article]
    It's a zombie story. The market lifts all ships, but you can be sure these guys will find a way to puncture their hull if left to the own (de)vices.

    Hank gave them a lifeline.....but thus far, all they have really done with it is fashion a noose.

    Hint: no-one talks about off balance sheet any longer...... hence there is no reasonable guesstimate as to what "real"book value might be. Investors today just ignore it because they have been told "it's okay". That doesn't make it "okay".
    Aug 27, 2014. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan, BofA to hike salaries of junior bankers [View news story]
    I don't think we are talking about the paper pushers who sit in branch offices. Not to insult you, but these are just junior admin jobs with little skills requirement and more than likely result form participating in a "training program".

    The increase for "junior bankers" refers to investment bankers who are the underlings working on "deals". Acquisitions, mergers and capital markets issues. We're not talking about guys taking a car loan or mortgage application.
    Aug 22, 2014. 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan, BofA to hike salaries of junior bankers [View news story]
    The Junior Bankers do all the grunt work on "intermediary services in capital markets". They are the "interns" (recent graduates) who get the coffee, do the copying, crunch the numbers, draft the deal documents over and over and over again until there is something which a Senior Banker can put in front of their clients for review.

    The little grunts work night and day, weekends and holidays, and get on planes to just about any time....all in search of the golden ring of being a Partner or Senior Banker.

    Historically these low lifes work a hundred hours a week, and are paid what appears to be "well" from the outside looking in, but from the inside they look more like serfs.

    When deals are flowing these grunts are in demand. When deal flow dries up they are tossed overboard....and can't find work.

    As one of them said a few years back when he was trying (and couldn't) to find another $300,000 year job pushing paper and crunching numbers: "I really thought I was worth that much".

    Then it dawned on him that he was just a slave being used by the wealthy to become even more wealthy.

    Of late, as everything has become more "process" oriented, banks have tried to reduce the grunts workload, and pay them more in line with the hours which they spend at the firm.

    I am sure that Goldman is not the least bit concerned.....
    Aug 21, 2014. 07:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Claure: Sprint to slash prices, cut more jobs [View news story]
    So glad to see Hesse get the axe. Can't wait for this thing to go from sprint to crawl to road kill.


    A former customer who tried everything to stay with them, but couldn't even get an intelligent rep (nor a response from Hesse) with which to discuss extending my three phone contract.
    Aug 14, 2014. 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capital Research ups Herbalife stake to 10.1% [View news story]
    Just a little insight into how these things go down.....
    Short analysts, just like street side/long analysts, make "calls", especially to long holders of shares which the shorts dislike. The analysts make their case as to why the position should be sold.
    Let's just say the callers can be "tenacious".
    After hundreds of calls, and that less than stellar presentation Ackman made a couple weeks back, the longs get annoyed.
    Let's also note that the longs aren't stupid either, and they might agree that the underlying shares are not a great investment, but great short plays have a life of their own--one of which is that they squeeze remarkably higher before they flop over dead if the analysis is accurate.
    So Capital is annoyed from the calls, "knows" the shares will structurally move higher, and they buy more.
    I don't know if Ackmans analysis on this stock is any good or not. I also would guess that he is not actually "short" too any shares, but has structured agreements with the street which allow him to benefit if the shares go down.
    So we wait. The longs can't sell without setting off an avalanche, and Ackman can't raid the stock. You can't take the company private because nobody will finance a MLM scheme (remember AVP?), so the only thing left is time, and a catalyst which is unknown at present.
    So, put it on the back burner and let it simmer. That's all there is to be done at this point. If it is what it is, the thing will fall over. If not, ten years from now we will still be having this conversation. I have been involved in some that went to zero; and others which are somehow still standing after a decade.
    One thing for sure: this is a big boys game and the little folks (both long and short) will be long crushed before the thing runs it's cycle.
    Aug 9, 2014. 08:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sodastream off highs as analyst says LBO "highly improbable to impossible" [View news story]
    But the guy who bought all the July 30 calls at $.15 this morning is feeling pretty happy....or nervous about the Feds showing up with questions.
    Jul 24, 2014. 03:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment