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Jack Staub

Jack Staub
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  • Cook: Apple Watch to ship in April [View news story]
    Note that Apple also issued its first euro denominated bond in the quarter. Imagine the benefit of more of these euro-bonds as the Euro declines. The debt will hedge currency AND fund future share repurchases.
    Jan 27, 2015. 06:48 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market P/E Still Inexpensive Given Tax And Inflation Context; +10% To 25% U.S. Equities Upside Remains [View article]

    Thank you for bringing attention to this important but little understood relationship between long term interest rates and P/E ratios.

    As an example, the current rate on the 10 year treasury is 2.315%, that's equivalent to a P/E multiple of 43 for this 'risk free' investment.

    If investors were willing to allocate capital to a given stock provided they receive a 2% premium over the 10 year then it's only rational that the P/E of this stock would move to 23.

    Applying this pricing method accross all stocks, it's only logical to conclude that periods of low long term rates should result in higher P/E multiples in stocks. What is irrational is to ignore this relationship and assume P/E multiples are fixed.
    Nov 22, 2014. 11:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple roundup: Watch, camera, iAd, hedge funds [View news story]
    It's good to see that hedge funds have reduced their Apple positions in Q3. They are low quality investors, as they are far too short-term focused. Note that Apple's stock is up 15% since the reporting period, so they sold early -- perhaps to buy gold (YIKES)! Poor hedges, they just can't do anything right these days!!
    Nov 19, 2014. 01:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Drug retailers cut out Apple Pay [View news story]
    Every week there's another data breach by a national retail chain who failed to understand the technology they use. We have lost faith in their ability to manage these complex systems and protect our personal data. But we do trust Apple, not Target or CVS.
    Oct 27, 2014. 06:37 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hey Google, Thanks For Nothing [View article]
    It is remarkable that the EPS growth for Google (an ostensibly 'high growth' company) is only 6% YOY, while EPS growth for Apple (a 'moderate growth' company) is 20% YOY.

    The difference between them is Apple's share repurchases, which significantly reduce its share count each year. Apple has the cash and, more importantly, the future free cash flows to continue repurchasing shares long into the future, and so, it can grow EPS even in the absence of revenue growth.
    Oct 20, 2014. 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bitcoin Surprise And The Dollar [View article]
    Those hoarding Bitcoin are the Ponzi perpetrators.
    Oct 7, 2014. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bitcoin Surprise And The Dollar [View article]
    Bitcoin is an interesting and potentially useful technology wrapped around an old fashion Ponzi scheme.

    The Bitcoin Ponzi uses technology to attract technophiles as its 'chumps', just as Bernie Madoff used Jewish philanthropy to attract his.

    The way it works is through the bitcoin itself, where those holding 'coin' seek to make it scarce, driving up the value of their positions and enriching themselves.

    Don't be a chump!
    Oct 6, 2014. 12:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Blair's Incredible Journey - Apple's Blowout Launch [View article]
    Blair helped to push Apple's shares down to an irrational low ... just as the Company executed on the largest share repurchase in history.

    What a gift he (along with the rest of the Apple doom & groom analysts) gave to all of us longs!

    Thank you Mr. Blair!!
    Oct 1, 2014. 03:23 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Why The Cash Issue Is So Important [View article]
    There was a 1% increase in treasuries between the first and second round, so I don't see how you can claim the higher rate paid for the second round was due to Apple's existing debt.

    "Both cases were marginally over treasury bonds"
    Jul 8, 2014. 10:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Why The Cash Issue Is So Important [View article]
    Apple's debt raised in 2014 carries a higher interest rate than 2013 due to changes in the market over that time, not because Apple's financial condition has weakened. Apple's timing in 2013 was remarkably good.

    Also note that if and when interest rates do rise, Apple will earn higher interest on its cash & investments, and that will exceed the higher interest paid on debt -- as its pile of cash is significantly larger than its pile of debt.
    Jul 8, 2014. 04:18 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Genius Of The Apple iPhone 6 [View article]
    With a sapphire screen, the iPhone 6 could integrate the home button & fingerprint sensor under the sapphire crystal, streamlining the phone's look and feel considerably.
    This would be so anti-Samsung, don't you think?

    If they cover the back of the phone with a sapphire solar cell, that could be used for recharging the battery, substantially increasing the time between plug-in charging, and further streamlining its look and feel.

    Each feature would be significant in its own right, and fully capable of sending the iPhone masses into a buying frenzy. So it's probably best to bring them out over multiple product cycles.
    Jun 26, 2014. 03:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tale Of Unbridled Optimism [View article]
    Apple has a PE of 15, where exactly is the excessive optimism in that?
    Jun 25, 2014. 01:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Samsung Finally In The Smartphone Driver's Seat? [View article]
    I don't use an Android phone because I don't want to be fleeced of my personal data, and I most certainly don't want my kids having their data and location info taken and sold to the highest bidder. As a parent, this prospect is rather unnerving!

    Even if Google offered to pay me $1000 a year to use their phone, it wouldn't change my perspective. Data privacy is a very valuable feature that Apple provides, not Google.

    Beware of 'free' gadgets from datamongers!
    Jun 12, 2014. 04:15 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overlooked Upside Potential In Apple's Acquisition Of Beats Electronics [View article]
    Beats already sells headphones and portable speakers, why not go into automobile sound systems? The brand is well liked across a wide demographic. They could give Bose and Harmon Kardon a run for their money.

    And what about home audio systems, e.g. TV surround sound built into a next-gen receiver like an Apple TV + cable receiver + wireless home router combo with Beats sound.

    The Beats acquisition can easily lead to many other segments. Apple has been working closely with the automobile manufactures and cable operators for some time, so this may be MUCH closer than we know. Perhaps the Beats brand would allow Apple to pursue a broader demographic, and counter the “Apple’s only for rich people” criticism.
    Jun 11, 2014. 04:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's New Smartphone Spells Trouble For Apple [View article]
    Trainer's paid by shorts to do 'research'.
    Jun 9, 2014. 12:25 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment