Jack Staub

Jack Staub
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  • Apple: iPhone 6s Orders Are Likely To Be Tracking Below Last Year  [View article]
    EPS will grow even faster than revenue (as it has over the last two years) due to the ongoing share repurchase program. If revenue grows 10% (as you suggest) then EPS could fall in the 13% to 14% range.
    Sep 15, 2015. 01:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Apple Is Weak Since Earnings  [View article]
    FQ1 covers the Christmas holiday, traditionally Apple's strong quarter.

    FQ2 covers Chinese New Year (Asia's gifting holiday), which was strong this year and most certainly will get stronger in future years, more so than FQ3; so I would expect an even larger revenue drop from FQ2 to FQ3 next year as Apple's share of China's gifting season grows. That's a good, get used to it!
    May 7, 2015. 06:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Past Google's High P/E Ratio  [View article]
    One more reason to own AAPL over GOOG:
    GOOG's share count is rising 1.6% per year, diluting EPS; while AAPL's share count is falling 6.4% per year, enhancing EPS. On a per share basis, these changes compound over time. Over 10 years AAPL could cut its share count in half, doubling EPS from where it would have been without their share repurchase.
    Mar 7, 2015. 11:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My $25,000 Bet Against Buffett, One Year Later  [View article]
    Note that even if BRK's market cap stalls, its share price could increase substantially over the 10 year period. How? BRK has the free cash flow to repurchase shares, a LOT of shares. The benefits of a multi-year share repurchase would compound over time.

    If they repurchased 50% of their shares, EPS would double -- even with zero growth. Any growth they do add would increase EPS 2x more than it would have without the share repurchases. All the while, the stocks in your index will be issuing shares, diluting their EPS, year after year.
    Mar 5, 2015. 06:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cook: Apple Watch to ship in April  [View news story]
    Note that Apple also issued its first euro denominated bond in the quarter. Imagine the benefit of more of these euro-bonds as the Euro declines. The debt will hedge currency AND fund future share repurchases.
    Jan 27, 2015. 06:48 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market P/E Still Inexpensive Given Tax And Inflation Context; +10% To 25% U.S. Equities Upside Remains  [View article]

    Thank you for bringing attention to this important but little understood relationship between long term interest rates and P/E ratios.

    As an example, the current rate on the 10 year treasury is 2.315%, that's equivalent to a P/E multiple of 43 for this 'risk free' investment.

    If investors were willing to allocate capital to a given stock provided they receive a 2% premium over the 10 year then it's only rational that the P/E of this stock would move to 23.

    Applying this pricing method accross all stocks, it's only logical to conclude that periods of low long term rates should result in higher P/E multiples in stocks. What is irrational is to ignore this relationship and assume P/E multiples are fixed.
    Nov 22, 2014. 11:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple roundup: Watch, camera, iAd, hedge funds  [View news story]
    It's good to see that hedge funds have reduced their Apple positions in Q3. They are low quality investors, as they are far too short-term focused. Note that Apple's stock is up 15% since the reporting period, so they sold early -- perhaps to buy gold (YIKES)! Poor hedges, they just can't do anything right these days!!
    Nov 19, 2014. 01:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Drug retailers cut out Apple Pay  [View news story]
    Every week there's another data breach by a national retail chain who failed to understand the technology they use. We have lost faith in their ability to manage these complex systems and protect our personal data. But we do trust Apple, not Target or CVS.
    Oct 27, 2014. 06:37 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hey Google, Thanks For Nothing  [View article]
    It is remarkable that the EPS growth for Google (an ostensibly 'high growth' company) is only 6% YOY, while EPS growth for Apple (a 'moderate growth' company) is 20% YOY.

    The difference between them is Apple's share repurchases, which significantly reduce its share count each year. Apple has the cash and, more importantly, the future free cash flows to continue repurchasing shares long into the future, and so, it can grow EPS even in the absence of revenue growth.
    Oct 20, 2014. 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bitcoin Surprise And The Dollar  [View article]
    Those hoarding Bitcoin are the Ponzi perpetrators.
    Oct 7, 2014. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bitcoin Surprise And The Dollar  [View article]
    Bitcoin is an interesting and potentially useful technology wrapped around an old fashion Ponzi scheme.

    The Bitcoin Ponzi uses technology to attract technophiles as its 'chumps', just as Bernie Madoff used Jewish philanthropy to attract his.

    The way it works is through the bitcoin itself, where those holding 'coin' seek to make it scarce, driving up the value of their positions and enriching themselves.

    Don't be a chump!
    Oct 6, 2014. 12:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Blair's Incredible Journey - Apple's Blowout Launch  [View article]
    Blair helped to push Apple's shares down to an irrational low ... just as the Company executed on the largest share repurchase in history.

    What a gift he (along with the rest of the Apple doom & groom analysts) gave to all of us longs!

    Thank you Mr. Blair!!
    Oct 1, 2014. 03:23 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Why The Cash Issue Is So Important  [View article]
    There was a 1% increase in treasuries between the first and second round, so I don't see how you can claim the higher rate paid for the second round was due to Apple's existing debt.

    "Both cases were marginally over treasury bonds"
    Jul 8, 2014. 10:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Why The Cash Issue Is So Important  [View article]
    Apple's debt raised in 2014 carries a higher interest rate than 2013 due to changes in the market over that time, not because Apple's financial condition has weakened. Apple's timing in 2013 was remarkably good.

    Also note that if and when interest rates do rise, Apple will earn higher interest on its cash & investments, and that will exceed the higher interest paid on debt -- as its pile of cash is significantly larger than its pile of debt.
    Jul 8, 2014. 04:18 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Genius Of The Apple iPhone 6  [View article]
    With a sapphire screen, the iPhone 6 could integrate the home button & fingerprint sensor under the sapphire crystal, streamlining the phone's look and feel considerably.
    This would be so anti-Samsung, don't you think?

    If they cover the back of the phone with a sapphire solar cell, that could be used for recharging the battery, substantially increasing the time between plug-in charging, and further streamlining its look and feel.

    Each feature would be significant in its own right, and fully capable of sending the iPhone masses into a buying frenzy. So it's probably best to bring them out over multiple product cycles.
    Jun 26, 2014. 03:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment