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bonehead69

bonehead69
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  • S&P 500 Best Months Ever [View article]
    It ain't over, till it's over...
    Oct 28 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On the hour: Dow -0.07%. 10-yr +0.5%. Euro -0.18% vs. dollar. Crude -0.51% to $93.48. Gold -0.26% to $1743.15.  [View news story]
    You're probably wondering, "why is the market just sitting here for the last few hours, after such a crazy day yesterday",huh? "Why are the yields on the treasury dropping if the stock market is not being sold, triggering a run to safety"?

    If I'm right, you should see a hard default of Greece very soon, that will trigger the CDS's. Well, I'll try to explain, IF (and only if) the final piece to this ingenious plan fits into place. I could be wrong, but not usually.
    Oct 28 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Jump On Europe's Debt Help [View article]
    Quickrick, I have been beating my drum trying to warn the users on this site and to have them look at the actual data. Many seem to be missing the Forrest and just sniffing around trees. The government's ever increasing spending (stimulus and bailouts) have done nothing but keep the reported GDP numbers positive, while the actual economy has been contracting since the 3rd quarter of 2007 (recession). The Treasurie's Flow of Data Report clearly shows that. You can lead a horse to water...

    I sleep better at night knowing that a few people on this site won't be saying, "Wow, I didn't see that coming" in the not so distant future. It looks like the hyper inflated Euro is leaking air. I wonder if it will behave like a balloon does, when you let go of the end, and fly around the room aimlessly (sorry, it's late).The dollar will most likely experience a sudden move of strength...and well, you can figure out the rest. Be safe!
    Oct 28 02:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Jump On Europe's Debt Help [View article]
    Consumer spending will naturally grow when you give 48 million people food stamps, unemployment benefits and assorted other goodies. That does not equate to GDP growth; just fluff on the balance sheet that needs to be paid back, with interest, by those folks and their relatives for decades to come, the way things are going.

    It seems like everyone also failed to notice/ignored tiny companies like Cummings, Dow Chemical, Amazon and so many other giants? Even Apple missed iPhone sales by 2 million (right, everyone on food stamps was waiting for the iPhone 5).

    How about the fact that the States will most likely see a 26% increase in Medicare and Medicaid costs. And Aetna said the price of healthcare to be way above previous 2011 projections. Obama is insisting on throwing out another 1/2 $trillion to keep teachers, cops and firefighters employed because the states are broke (really to buy votes, but that's here nor there). Take a look around, consumers are about to commit suicide....
    Oct 27 09:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Democrats yesterday presented a $3T deficit-reduction program to the "super committee" that is deciding how to reduce U.S. debt by $1.2T, Reuters reports. Half the package is spending cuts and the other half tax hikes, which almost guarantees that it'll never fly.
     [View news story]
    At least 1/2 of congress has the beginnings of a plan. "Just stop everything we are currently doing". When a ship is headed for the rocks, the last thing the captain yells is: "All ahead stop, brace for impact". Later, the salvage crews recover the worthwhile, remaining parts of the ship.
    Oct 27 04:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Democrats yesterday presented a $3T deficit-reduction program to the "super committee" that is deciding how to reduce U.S. debt by $1.2T, Reuters reports. Half the package is spending cuts and the other half tax hikes, which almost guarantees that it'll never fly.
     [View news story]
    Bear, I always say not to my kids when they want to have a party at the house while I'm out of town or drive my Porshe and borrow $300 bucks for their night out with friends. They always tell me they are responsible, they will pay me back as soon as they get a job and I'm just mean. Does that make me "arrogant and non-compromising"?
    Oct 27 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The first look at Q3 GDP projects a 2.5% annualized rate, far from the double-dip some have predicted. But for the year, we’re looking at ~2% GDP growth - well below the brisk pace typically seen early in recoveries, and possibly too slow to stem a recession. “If you don’t achieve escape velocity, the risk is you fall back to earth,” HSBC economist Kevin Logan says.  [View news story]
    Reference the Feds Balance Sheet here: http://1.usa.gov/q44czK

    The analyzed GDP in Q2 2011 was 14.9968 $Trillion and had a growth rate of about .89% from the previous quarter, which is near the average for the past 8 quarters. Add in the $1T stimulus plus, food stamps, unemployment and other goodies and a "very conservative" estimate of the Q3 GDP would be about 15.9968. $T.

    That should be reflected in the numbers and show this recent quarter GDP to be around 6.6%, if not higher. So the actual (without all the goodies) would probably be more like -4.1%.
    So, average that in over the last 4 or 5 quarters (when stimulus was going wild) and all the growth averages would have to be lowered by say, 1% if the stimulus and goodies are not factored in. Either way, the economy would be contracting without all the goodies, that will have to be paid back with interest, at some point.

    If you do look at the balance sheet, pay particular attention to the "F.8 Saving and Investment by Sector" section. Actually, look at the whole thing! The Federal, state and local governments are continuing to borrow at a crazy rate. Just saying....
    Oct 27 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe crafts debt deal as banks take Greek losses [View article]
    Is that the sound of horses in the distance? Maybe it's the bond investors running away from Europe after they realized the "50% haircuts" will ultimately be mandatory. I don't know, but the sound seems to be getting louder....
    Oct 27 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • *No deal yet on euro crisis as the danger grows [View article]
    Michael, I think you are exactly right.
    Oct 27 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Stages Greek Tragedy [View article]
    Craig,
    I truly believe your numbers are wrong. You are under estimating the debt loads by ten fold. I truly believe the US has gotten itself in the same position as the Romans did so many years ago. We have become an "empire" and through our own inabilities to realize the problems, we may not be able to deal with them (anythings possible with skilled minds though).

    I sent a link to my other comments below, and please take the time to investigate the severity of what is really at stake. Greece is inconsequintial in all matter of things. So what truly happens when all this "fact" is finally realized? Think hard....

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Carry on, go stock market...wow...
    Oct 27 02:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Stages Greek Tragedy [View article]
    There is no way they can...greece is tiny, France is the real problem. Their debt load is far larger than any country I could research. Remember, they have a South American debt load on their banks as well. Way beyond what you may imagine. See my other post on the subject....
    Oct 27 01:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Speaking at the press conference, Sarkozy says the IMF (i.e. U.S., maybe China too) will partner with the EU to provide additional bailout funds. He believes the EFSF can be leveraged to provide €1T in firepower without threatening any EU core credit ratings. Under the plan, Greek debt/GDP would fall to 120% by 2020. None of this is new information, all having been leaked out during past days.  [View news story]
    And somehow, in all this, you do not feel that in the end, you and all the rest of us "little people" will be the ultimate losers? Amazing man!
    Oct 27 12:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Speaking at the press conference, Sarkozy says the IMF (i.e. U.S., maybe China too) will partner with the EU to provide additional bailout funds. He believes the EFSF can be leveraged to provide €1T in firepower without threatening any EU core credit ratings. Under the plan, Greek debt/GDP would fall to 120% by 2020. None of this is new information, all having been leaked out during past days.  [View news story]
    Wow, I can finally find people willing to buy that piece of crap swamp land I got taken on back in the 70's. How about $10 billion to the first sucker, I mean lucky person?
    Oct 27 12:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Eventually, what will happen in Europe is the same as what happened in the U.S., observes Marc Faber. "The E.U. will print money, one way or the other," Faber says, "and the debts that should be written down to realistic value will continue to be carried on the books of banks at unrealistic values, so the end crisis will be postponed until the sovereigns go bankrupt." (video)  [View news story]
    (I do appologize, I posted this same definition in another comment; sorry... "BoneHead")

    Definition of DISTRACTION
    1: the act of distracting or the state of being distracted; especially : mental confusion <driven to distraction>
    2: something that distracts; especially : amusement
    — dis·trac·tive \-ˈstrak-tiv\ adjective
    Examples of DISTRACTION:
    a). It was hard to work with so many distractions.

    b). One of them created a distraction while the other grabbed the money.

    c). A weekend at the beach was a good distraction from her troubles.
    d). Their endless chatter drove her to distraction.
    Synonyms: bafflement, bamboozlement, befuddlement, bemusement, bewilderedness, bewilderment, confusedness, discombobulation, confusion, fog, head-scratching, maze [chiefly dialect], muddle, mystification, perplexity, puzzlement, tangle, whirl
    Oct 26 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The White House reveals details of its student loan relief plan a day ahead of Pres. Obama's announcement. Monthly payments for some students will be reduced to 10% of discretionary income, debt balances will be forgiven after 20 years of payments, and some students can consolidate their loans with government loans into a single payment with a reduced interest rate.  [View news story]
    Definition of DISTRACTION
    1: the act of distracting or the state of being distracted; especially : mental confusion <driven to distraction>
    2: something that distracts; especially : amusement
    — dis·trac·tive \-ˈstrak-tiv\ adjective
    Examples of DISTRACTION:
    a). It was hard to work with so many distractions.

    b). One of them created a distraction while the other grabbed the money.

    c). A weekend at the beach was a good distraction from her troubles.
    d). Their endless chatter drove her to distraction.
    Synonyms: bafflement, bamboozlement, befuddlement, bemusement, bewilderedness, bewilderment, confusedness, discombobulation, confusion, fog, head-scratching, maze [chiefly dialect], muddle, mystification, perplexity, puzzlement, tangle, whirl
    Oct 26 09:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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