Tomorrow will most likely start nice and get real ugly by the end. Your call for next week is probably pretty close. Seems fear is setting in an no one is really saying much to dispell it.
Resist the urge to buy the dip, Josh Brown warns, as "the benefits of catching a snapback rally are far outweighed by the 'what if' questions surrounding virtually every asset class and sovereign entity... This morning's economic releases were essentially a coroner's report." [View news story]
Since we went off the gold standard, every large country has been spending and printing money with no ability to repay it. Bernanke just said we won't default, we'll just print money. We are reaching the point where most western money is really not a good currency and the debts can never be repaid by most any country by using their currency. If not dealt with soon, resources, gold and minerals etc. may have to replace them until we all decide to use gold or something else to give currency a value again.
All the downgrades are way too late. This situation has never happened and the results can't be good. This is not just about money. Socialism has failed in all these european countries and the attempt to bring it here is failing also. We americans have a chance to lead the way out of this, but it will take all of us, not just the 51% towing the line now. The constitution is the recipe and we need some good leaders to lead the good half out of this place we are going. The others will follow....
The market already has a very negative bias. All this news in the morning will probably make you puke just a bit and by 10:05, you'll wish you shorted the crap out of this ugly market machine (I did) custom made by a very irresponsible Fed and their artificially low interest rates and dollar trashing money printing. The 10yr should be about 3.1% but is only low because of our reserve status (which may go away soon). Gold is only going up because the dollar keeps falling, not because of a bubble, as I keep hearing. It will only come down when the dollar strengthens...not before.
Beware the dead-cat bounce. We've had a good move off last week's lows, but most of the buying has been very stock specific, based on earnings or "fire-sale" valuation upgrades without much carryover into respective sectors. Narrow moves higher without broad, sector-wide participation are classic signs of a bear market rally. [View news story]
Before any of that happens, the other countries will pull out of treasuries because the dollar is becoming worthless. China is giving us advice and lip-service already. Their currencies are all strengthening against the pathetic dollar and killing their economies; even the Yuan now! As I type, Japan is getting killed because of the strengthening Yen they can't stop and the Swiss are going to take drastic measures to try to stop their Franc from going ballistic. As a result, the dollar will crash, treasuries will go bust, interest rates will shoot through the roof and its over... I don't know what happens then?
Delinquencies on credit cards are at their lowest level in 17 years despite their increased use, TransUnion says, as "consumers are using credit cards more responsibly." But the question is whether this is more than a temporary pause in the spend-less, save-more trend; the answer could have big consequences for the economy. [View news story]
Most people use cards these days for everything, instead of cash and checks, not just to charge and spread the payments over time. The limited data detail can't really draw you close to any conclusions, other than more folks are paying on time. Banks and mattresses hold the data for savings rates.
German Q2 GDP +0.1% Q/Q vs. 1.3% (revised) in Q1, +0.5% expected. On an annualized basis, Q2 GDP +2.8% vs. +5% in Q1, +3.2% expected. (PR) [View news story]
Once the U.S. GDP for Q2 is revised down 6 months from now, it will probably show it was actually -1.3%. I really think much of the uncertainty in the US is due to all the untruths or inacurate data coming from the government. The unemployment data proves my point. It is common fact that it is at least 12%. We are in a recession and stocks will reflect it shortly.
Uh, oh... investment pros are not running for the exits. John Carney thinks such a lack of panic could indicate there is more - much more - room to the downside. [View news story]
Before you commit money to this beast, take a deep breath and wait for volatility to subside. Everone feels they may miss a big move, but the environment with UK riots, europe banks, useless congress and investlor confidence will not permit that. Any quick rally will be met with a retest of the low (which hasen't been put in yet) IMHO. When people are totally fed up with all investing and are feeling real pain...the low is close! not evoen close yet!
Friday's economic calendar:
8:30 Fed's Dudley: Economic Outlook
8:30 PM Fed's Pianalto: 'The Evolving Financial Services Industry' [View news story]
Resist the urge to buy the dip, Josh Brown warns, as "the benefits of catching a snapback rally are far outweighed by the 'what if' questions surrounding virtually every asset class and sovereign entity... This morning's economic releases were essentially a coroner's report." [View news story]
In 2008 we experienced the failure of Lehman, AIG and the GSEs. Today we are witnessing sovereign nations on the brink of failure. In 2008 there was the palpable fear of bank runs. Today, it's a potential for currency runs. In 2008 there were government bailouts. Today there are central bank bailouts. But... this time everything's different, right? [View news story]
Notable earnings before Thursday's open: BKE, CHL, DLTR, GME, ROST, SHLD, SJM, SSI [View news story]
Beware the dead-cat bounce. We've had a good move off last week's lows, but most of the buying has been very stock specific, based on earnings or "fire-sale" valuation upgrades without much carryover into respective sectors. Narrow moves higher without broad, sector-wide participation are classic signs of a bear market rally. [View news story]
Delinquencies on credit cards are at their lowest level in 17 years despite their increased use, TransUnion says, as "consumers are using credit cards more responsibly." But the question is whether this is more than a temporary pause in the spend-less, save-more trend; the answer could have big consequences for the economy. [View news story]
German Q2 GDP +0.1% Q/Q vs. 1.3% (revised) in Q1, +0.5% expected. On an annualized basis, Q2 GDP +2.8% vs. +5% in Q1, +3.2% expected. (PR) [View news story]
Uh, oh... investment pros are not running for the exits. John Carney thinks such a lack of panic could indicate there is more - much more - room to the downside. [View news story]