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thinklongterm

thinklongterm
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  • 5 Reasons To Be Bullish On Green Mountain Coffee [View article]
    GMCR had no negative takeaways with their earnings report or on the CC. They even reiterated the robust Office channel and increased growth of K-cups. Short sellers can spin it how they wish, or create more myths that the CEO clearly proved with facts were indeed myths, short sellers are in a bad spot, and they know it. They will use any tactic to prevent a short squeeze, but I think it is inevitable. Let's see how smart they really are here, because I think upgrades are coming in the next few days. Einhorn has likely covered a large part of his short and left his followers holding the short end of the stick again.
    Feb 7 08:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Earnings: Patent Expiries And Competition Could Spoil The Party [View article]
    Wow, this has to be one of the worst written articles, and least justifiable, I have seen in the past year. An article like this, spewing the same old patent expiration garbage that has already been debunked, sure makes one think the no position disclosure is also garbage, especially when it is made the day of earnings release. What is the real purpose, motive, or reasoning for such an article? Why not wait until after earnings are released today, then write something current?

    Something to note on earnings as well, the estimate was 60 cents for the Q, and was raised to 65 cents within past month. So, if the company does beat earnings today, lets hope the media at least notes the 60 cents estimate was raised, because that is what seems to happen with naysayers downplaying true Q growth. Media loves to ignore things like this.

    Finally, as a consumer, all I buy is Green Mountain cups, because it is the best coffee. Why look for a knock off? If I wanted that, then I would just go back to an old perk pot and use Maxwell House. Not to mention, I have the MyCup adapter, so I can still use the brewer with regular bag brand coffees, if I chose to do so. What do I need knock-off cups for? Personally, I have never even looked for a knock-off brand. I've never wished more that this is the Q that GMCR burns shorts so bad, they think twice before spreading false information about any company again. The good Lord willing, a NFLX type squeeze will punish these sort of folks once and for all.
    Feb 6 05:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Q1 2013 Earning Preview [View article]
    GMCR will not only blow earnings out this Q, they will raise guidance, and we should see some very good upgrades on top of what has already been cited. Stock should easily see $70's after earnings report at least IMO. Might even see a massive squeeze to push the stock up even higher very quickly.
    Feb 1 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Bullish Stocks On Tuesday: Dell, Barrick And Celsion And With Unusual Call Activities [View article]
    In my opinion, CLSN is about to make medical history, and then stock history with an epic climb. Just saying...
    Jan 16 06:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Keryx Biopharmaceuticals And Why Does It Matter? [View article]
    This company has a long list of failure, and the CEO has constantly given erroneous expectations (i.e. Perifosine failure). His latest disaster has been telling investors the data release for the latest PH3 trials would be released prior to the end of the year 2012. The data has yet to be released, and the fact is, there is no confidence in the market for this company or the stock, because of this. During the Oppenheimer conference on Dec. 13 he used words to the effect of "within a matter of weeks" for the data release, and we are quickly approaching a month since that time, and still nothing. He led many investors to believe the data would still be released prior to the end of the year, when he clearly had a chance to notify everyone it would not be ready. They plan to present on Jan 10th at the JP Morgan Conference, and without a data release prior to that time, what exactly are they presenting? While Zerenex could be very big with the IV Iron catalyst, this is the only drug the company has in the pipeline. So in essence, they are putting the eggs all in one basket. But the real problem is, by not releasing the data, as the CEO stated many times throughout the past several months by the end of the year, they are risking everything and investors are finding it hard to trust Bentsur here again. Hence, no stock movement at all. If I were an investor in KERX, I would surely be asking them WTH is going on right now as to why the PH3 trial results have not been released to date. Also note, the CEO just received tons of stock options. It sure makes one wonder............who's interest is this CEO really looking out for?
    Jan 8 06:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Biotech Companies Making Considerable Strides When It Comes To Pain Management [View article]
    I think opportunities like ZLCS don't come along very often, and those who are buying at the current levels will be richly rewarded over the next 1-2 years. This is one of those stocks you buy and just put it away and come back later to count big returns. Z944 is going to be blockbuster.
    Jan 3 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Worth Buying Prior To Earnings: Week 4 [View article]
    SBUX performed a hedge on its coffee prices when the coffee market prices were going up. But now, SBUX is paying the price for that hedge. Airlines do this all the time with fuel, and some choose not to do this. Years ago, not doing it killed Delta, while those that did went on to post good quarters. When fuel dropped, it was vice-versa. SBUX margins were killed because they were locked in and were not able to fully benefit when prices dropped.

    With the large amount of offerings that GMCR has, I doubt they hedged and they will be able to reap most of the benefits for not hedging higher coffee prices and being able to participate in the drop in prices that will improve their margins.
    Apr 30 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Worth Buying Prior To Earnings: Week 4 [View article]
    I completely believe that GMCR is going to post a stellar quarter, with solid guidance going forward. Depending on how many brewers were sold, and I believe it will be substantial based on other retailers who have reported, earnings could come in near the $1.00 mark. SBUX's earnings call last week only verifies GMCR is still growing. Using the formula I always use, and usually come dang close for other companies, I see somewhere in the neighborhood of .80-.87 announced.

    Remember also, the short interest in GMCR is astronomical right now, and great earnings has the potential for a great squeeze on shorts to push the stock even higher. I'm looking for a run to $100 to occur in quick fashion just like it did this time last year. Post earnings PPS should put the stock around $70 then shorts take it substantially higher on the mass covering and margin calls they will receive.

    GMCR has the potential to be a Volkswagen type scenario from a few years ago that was so heavily shorted. Not the same price move of course, but the same percentage type move. I think we will be sitting around $53-$55 by Tuesday market close, and earnings release pushing it up to $70 quickly in AH trading. The following day should push GMCR to $75-$80.

    At any rate, GMCR is worth at least double what it currently trades at today based on growth alone.
    Apr 29 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Keryx's Time Arrived? [View instapost]
    KERX is a two drug company. Perifosine seems to be their best candidate, which is licensed from AEZS, and Zerenex has a long way to go yet.

    AEZS has a much larger future with their incredibly deep pipeline, and licensing deals and royalties.

    AEZS-130 and 108 are going to be coming next.

    While both stocks will benefit from positive PH3 results, AEZS clearly is the investment for long term success.
    Apr 2 03:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx: Strong Upside Potential From Perifosine [View article]
    Actually, I disagree with your assessment in this article. While KERX will most likely rise on the approval of Perifosine and good trial results, they only have two drugs in their pipeline. They only have rights to Perifosine in the US, Canda, and Mexico. They also have Zerenex in trial.

    AEZS maintains the licensing and rights to the rest of the world, with licensing partners in Japan and India. AEZS will control Europe which is a much larger market, while still receiving licensing payments from KERX for North America and Mexico sales.

    AEZS has a much deeper pipeline with multiple compounds already showing extremely valuable data for Pre-NDA meetings. AEZS will likely be the company that rises 10-fold, and probably higher, and AEZS has no debt to boot.

    Both companies, KERX and AEZS are poised to make significant short term gains on Perifosine approval, but AEZS surely has the longer term future. Especially, if trials are done to see what other medications Perifosine works well with and provides patients with extended benefits of overall survival with little to no side effects. AEZS-108, AEZS 130, and AEZS 136 are looking very promising.
    Mar 30 07:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is AEterna Zentaris Really Worth All This Fuss? [View article]
    When you see this many hit pieces just before a Phase 3 trial result being announced, it is time to BUY BUY BUY! Seen it too many times.
    Mar 16 12:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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