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User 9636831

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  • Talisman Energy: Quality Over Quantity [View article]
    Thank you for your article. I have a hard time rationalizing a complete purchase of Talisman by Repsol given what they would inherit.

    1) Talisman is skewed towards gas, whereas Repsol wants to focus on oil
    2) Their capital projects outweigh the cash from operations, which saddles Repsol with the responsibility of turning this around
    3) Than there is the price - with a bit more than a billion shares outstanding, expectations are that Repsol would bid anywhere from $11 to $14. At a minimum this would cost them $11 Billion plus the assumption of $4.4 Billion in debt. At the end of June Repsol had $6.8 Billion in cash, $14.9 Billion in Financial obligations and $27 Billion in equity. At $11 to TLM shareholders, either Repsol would need to raise $9-$10 Billion of equity or sell off assets to pay for this deal and keep their balance sheet in good shape.

    What is your take on why Repsol would want do this and conversely, why insiders like Icahn and the institutions would want to sell TLM at such a low price?

    My take is that they are negotiating a significant asset sale and nothing more.
    Jul 25 01:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Canaccord Stay At The Party? [View article]
    Thanks for providing this article. I agree with you regarding the company's history but I think the future may turn out somewhat different. With Canaccord's founder now out of the picture I believe that a larger institution will take out Canaccord within the next few years. The company is very attractive for its UK operations and wealth management. Also the EPS figure masks the fact that the company is generating large amounts of cash as stock incentives make up a large part of their expenses.
    Jul 4 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Xiniya Fashion's CFO Answers Questions About The Recently Concluded Sales Fair And Current Industry Environment [View article]
    John, will you be publishing an update to this article any time soon?
    May 14 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Xiniya Fashion Limited Files Annual Report on Form 20-F [View article]
    I do not know why a press release was not issued explaining Q4 results. The results were far better than expected.

    Sales were down by the smallest percentage under previous guidance and earnings per ADS were far above guidance.

    I note that a key element was much lower shop rack expenses.
    I am posting below the results by quarter.
    Q4 2013 RMB USD Q4 2012 RMB USD
    Revenue 486,903, 81,923,,,,,,,,,,,532,483, 85,469
    Cost of sales (345,981) (58,202),,,,,,,,,(360,... (57,889)
    Gross profit 140,922 23,721,,,,,,,,,, 171,825 27,580
    % 28.9%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,...
    Selling &dist (73,180) (12,385),,,,,,,,,(91,620) (14,706)
    Admin. (7,922) (1,353),,,,,,,,,,,,(9,... (1,521)
    Int. income 6,047 1,023,,,,,,,,,,,, 4,042 649
    Net before tax 65,867 11,006,,,,,,,,,,,,74,771 12,002
    Income tax (16,869) (2,826),,,,,,,,,,,,(19... (3,072)
    Profit 48,998 8,180,,,,,,,,,,,,,55,629 8,930
    EPS 0.22,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,...
    Earnings per ADS,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 0.14,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,...

    Guidance issued for this quarter
    Revenue decrease from Q4 2012 -8% to -12%,,,,,,,,Actual -8.6%
    Earnings per ADS $.05 to $.09,,,,,,,,,,Actual $0.14
    Apr 12 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Xiniya Fashion Limited: Can We Look Into This Made In China Stock Without Prejudice? [View article]
    In my opinion, management that is shareholder friendly, acts that way. On page 19 of a presentation found at their site they compare their stock valuation to that of PVH and Ralph Lauren, but they are worlds apart in this category.

    The CEO raised capital at a great time; $10 per share. That was good for him. Since then, they spent $2 million to buy stock. A pittance given their capital and wealth. Today the stock is floating near $1.

    I say they are hesitant to put into place a buyback or dividend because -

    1) the CEO, Qiming Xu, controls all the cash through his majority ownership stake. He does not need to reduce the shares outstanding to exercise more control.

    2) the CEO believes that as long as he can make promises that he does not hold himself accountable for, he can do what he wants. For example, it will shortly be 4 years since the IPO proceeds were to be used to build a manufacturing plant. While other companies find ways to move ahead, he keeps with the same excuses. Does RL and PVH wait years to build a key asset or at least not discuss how they will achieve their objective?

    3) reducing the shares outstanding reduces the annual fee they get from Deutsche Bank (from 20-F; As of December 31, 2012, we received from the depositary reimbursement totaling $880,000 for our ADR program-related expenses.)

    4) the dividend becomes an annual commitment, which the CEO may not wish to burden the company with.

    I realize my comments are negative, but it really is up to them (and the CEO, in particular) to change this perception. I don't think I am alone.
    Apr 8 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Xiniya Fashion Limited: Can We Look Into This Made In China Stock Without Prejudice? [View article]
    Alberto, it has been a year since you wrote your article. Despite the valuations evident in your analysis, investor's perception of this company has not improved. While they certainly made an effort to change that perception last fall, they have not done anything since that time.

    The solution, which they are hesitant to adopt in my opinion, is to put in place long term solutions that exemplify their concern for external shareholders. These have been mentioned before, such as a buyback or an annual dividend, but I would add setting clear objectives and reporting their progress on a frequent basis would go further. Their CFO did this last fall, but then fell silent.

    Some China based companies realize this is a problem and are looking to break perceptions. For example, Zuoan Fashion has disclosed that they are putting in place a dividend starting with the release of their annual results in April.
    Apr 7 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Buying Canaccord Genuity  [View instapost]
    What are your thoughts on Canaccord's lack of buying back shares since February 11th announcement? Note that the purchase of 4,200 disclosed on March 17th is meaningless.

    This lack of buyback has not depressed the stock price.
    Mar 18 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile Using Sino-Forest Tactics To Delay The Inevitable? [View article]
    Excellent point ga3337. The same thing happened to LPI (Longwei Petroleum) now LPIH, after a geoinvesting report.
    Oct 28 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile Using Sino-Forest Tactics To Delay The Inevitable? [View article]
    xyq11, that is the point of what I wrote. Step 1, you have to read MW's 81 page report, ignoring the comments of others. Step 2, measure what is written against the information you have and the reasons for holding/buying NQ stock. Step 3, decide the next step based on your assessment.

    If you don't understand the report, or you don't have information that you believe refutes MW's claims, than you are at the mercy of the market.
    Oct 28 05:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile Using Sino-Forest Tactics To Delay The Inevitable? [View article]
    I believe commentators are focusing on the attackers rather than the business. The most damning part of what MW wrote is that NQ's revenues are not legitimate. No amount of cash will save them if this is true.

    If you clearly understand how NQ's business works and your due diligence tells you that MW is wrong, than you are right to hold/buy the shares.

    If you have not done your homework, do not rely on other parties to save you be it the brokers, management, or other shareholders.
    Oct 28 10:39 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fraud Or No Fraud, NQ Mobile Is A Gamble [View article]
    After reading these comments, I would say that except for a few, the commentators have completely missed the point of Muddy Waters' position.

    No matter how much cash the company has (and I will take the position it is all there), if the revenues are generrally fake because they created them by dealing with a related party (themselves), this company is toast. The lawyers, SEC, etc. will eat it up. The stock will be delisted.

    If you are a shareholder and you clearly understand how the company generate sales and collects payments from its customers than you should be confident in your position as you should be able to refute his claims. However, try being unbiased and compare your knowledge of the sales to collection process to what Carson has published. In my opinion, he has done a relatively good job of investigating the counterparty.
    Oct 26 09:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Xiniya Fashion Store Visits Reveal Efficient Business Model And Long-Term Opportunities [View article]

    Thank you for your observations and comments regarding Xiniya's operations. To your point, your article served the purpose of giving those of us who may never step foot in their stores, an understanding of where they are situated relative to the retail landscape in China.

    I have a few questions that perhaps you may help with.
    1) Regarding the manufacturing facilities, why is it taking so long to get the necessary permit from the local authorities? It has been 3 years since the IPO, yet no progress so far.
    2) Xiniya historically has expanded the number of stores, yet this year they have reduced the number of stores (1710 at December, now 1658 at Q2). This seems like a contradiction given they have only half the stores of Lilang and they want to invest to expand. Do you have any idea if they will increase the number of outlets this year?
    3) Last year, they signed an agreement to license leather goods made with the Xiniya name. Production and sales were to start this year. Any news about these products?
    4) I noted this year that Xiniya is trying to restore its credibility as a public company and distinguish itself from the numerous "China" frauds out there. The Deutsch bank online chat and even the presentation on their website speaks of audit standards and the cash verification process. What impression did you get from management on this topic? If you did not speak of it, what is your interpretation of what they are doing?

    In advance, thank you for your replies.

    Sep 14 02:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beating The Chinese Musical Chairs Game [View article]
    the scepticist thank you for the article. Certainly you have brought attention to the stock. i do think that Xiniya suffers from a couple of issues fully within their control.

    1) the Legal structure surrounding the ADRs is not perfect and can subject holders to ownership risk. this is more pervasive a problem with small caps which are controlled by a single individual. Anyone with time can read about these risks in the company's 20-f. To overcome the problem see point 2.

    2) while the CFO has gone public to explain any misgivings, cash on hand issue for example, they do need to do something that can be interpreted as having concern for shareholders or treating shareholders as partners. So far they have ignored requests for dividends or further buy backs. they explain they need the cash for other purposes like the 3 year old promise to build a logistic or manufacturing centre. A new requirement is a potential takeover, but of what, they won't say. leaving holders in the dark. they need to change their approach. this may not be in their character. Ultimately they need to decide whether staying public at these levels is worth it. As mentioned by others going private is an option.
    Jul 3 04:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Invest In China: This Hedge Fund Will Show You The Way [View article]

    Qiming Investment Limited, a British Virgin Islands company solely owned by Mr. Qiming Xu, our founder, chairman and chief executive officer, holds a significant
    percentage of our voting equity. As of December 31, 2012, Mr. Xu held approximately 59.0% of our outstanding share capital. As such, Mr. Xu, through Qiming Investment Limited,
    has substantial influence over our business, including decisions regarding mergers, consolidations, the sale of all or substantially all of our assets, election of directors, declaration of
    dividends and other significant corporate actions. Our controlling shareholder may take actions that are not in the best interests of our other shareholders. These actions may be taken in
    many cases even if they are opposed by our other shareholders. In addition, this concentration of ownership may discourage, delay or prevent a change in control of our company, which
    could deprive you of an opportunity to receive a premium for your ADSs as part of a sale of our company.
    May 24 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Invest In China: This Hedge Fund Will Show You The Way [View article]
    Perhaps you should ask, "how many shares can XNY buyback and from whom?" There are 6.9 million ADS shares. Shah and other institutions own 5.3 million (see nasdaq insitutional ownership). CEO and CFO own another 148k. So that leaves about 1.5 million ADS units. Even if he buys all of the 1.5 million ADS units, this equals 6 million of the 228 million shares outstanding. Thus, the "math" works out to less than a 3% reduction in the share count and a completely illiquid stock. A share buyback would hurt ADS holders and give little benefit to the EPS.

    Regarding the dividend, you have to ask yourself, how does it maximize value for the CEO when he prefers keeping the money in the company, where he controls all of it? I understand why ADS holders would want a dividend, but I don't see a reason why the CEO would want it.

    The only solution for Shah, in order to earn a return for their investors, is to arrive at an agreement with the CEO to take XNY private. Everyone else will join in. Any deal will be for substantially more than today's share price but not based on looking at the balance sheet, etc.
    May 24 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment