gordon

Dangerous Optimism in Homebuilders

I believe the rally in homebuilder stocks is a short-attack by hedge funds burning those shorting the XHB, they can pile into it, then exit on the squeeze. Barratt American (Barratt Group on London Ex) is on the ropes here in San Diego> tinyurl.com/6ch2et
CEO Mick Pattinson says the banks are getting out of the homebuilder -lending business as fast as they can. It's not coming back until at least 1 million resales are worked off. You think builders are going to build to "break even"? With the risk?
This morning Lyon Homes advertised one of their townhome projects in (crappy) Santee, east San Diego County, $340K for 1500 sq ft, essentially an apartment.(triplex, 3 units per bldg) We figured if you add homeowners dues, taxes/insurance w/ 10% down, you're talking about maybe $2700+/month, when you could RENT it for around $2000/month, and any upside in "beautiful " Santee is questionable at best! This is probably the most affordable new attached out there, and it sucks as an investment, until prices come down to under $200/sq ft. Most everything new is still closer to $300/sq. ft.