Long-Short Guy's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/96648/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/65499-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-117707 117707
Doesn't this mean that the decline in profits when these drugs hit patent expiration will be even sharper?]]> Thu, 21 Feb 2008 16:17:30 -0500
Doesn't this mean that the decline in profits when these drugs hit patent expiration will be even sharper?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/64983-gmo-stocks-will-lag-historical-average-for-next-7-years?source=feed#comment-117705 117705 Thu, 21 Feb 2008 15:49:45 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/65087-shorting-coal-on-extraordinary-short-term-demand?source=feed#comment-117704 117704
However, I'm also not sure about your timing. Specifically, the transmission mechanism you specify (increased price => increased suppy) takes a while, potentially years, to kick in. In that time, you can lose a lot of money on a short.]]> Thu, 21 Feb 2008 15:41:39 -0500
However, I'm also not sure about your timing. Specifically, the transmission mechanism you specify (increased price => increased suppy) takes a while, potentially years, to kick in. In that time, you can lose a lot of money on a short.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/65314-china-s-global-impact-inflation-exporter-or-deflation-trendsetter?source=feed#comment-117451 117451
"According to a recent Wall Street Journal article, there is evidence to suggest that foreign exporters are willing to adjust prices to hold on to U.S. market share as the dollar declines in value."

This effect is recognized by economists, but tends to be only short run. In the long run, producers react to lower prices in their domestic currency.

An interesting issue that you didn't discuss is the potential lack of price elasticity of demand for Chinese products in the US. Normally, when prices go up demand falls. But the US has now become totally dependent on Chinese products, and even with rising prices there are no cheaper alternatives. In which case higher prices may lead to the same relative demand for each product, but overall cuts to consumers budgets.

I wonder how rising Chinese prices would impact Walmart.]]> Wed, 20 Feb 2008 15:34:24 -0500
"According to a recent Wall Street Journal article, there is evidence to suggest that foreign exporters are willing to adjust prices to hold on to U.S. market share as the dollar declines in value."

This effect is recognized by economists, but tends to be only short run. In the long run, producers react to lower prices in their domestic currency.

An interesting issue that you didn't discuss is the potential lack of price elasticity of demand for Chinese products in the US. Normally, when prices go up demand falls. But the US has now become totally dependent on Chinese products, and even with rising prices there are no cheaper alternatives. In which case higher prices may lead to the same relative demand for each product, but overall cuts to consumers budgets.

I wonder how rising Chinese prices would impact Walmart.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/65130-why-junior-miners-are-underperforming?source=feed#comment-117081 117081 Tue, 19 Feb 2008 08:26:16 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/64077-the-price-verasun-pays-for-corn?source=feed#comment-117079 117079 Tue, 19 Feb 2008 08:24:40 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/64896-the-current-state-of-the-solar-energy-sector?source=feed#comment-116879 116879 Mon, 18 Feb 2008 07:35:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/30119-green-and-alternative-energy-etfs?source=feed#comment-116661 116661 Sat, 16 Feb 2008 16:44:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/64683-the-most-bullish-sign-i-ve-seen-in-awhile?source=feed#comment-116370 116370 Thu, 14 Feb 2008 18:08:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/64609-first-solar-q4-2007-conference-call-visualization?source=feed#comment-116357 116357 Thu, 14 Feb 2008 16:52:16 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/64664-why-a-yahoo-news-corp-deal-makes-sense?source=feed#comment-116290 116290 Thu, 14 Feb 2008 11:56:21 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/64570-skygrid-finds-gold-in-the-wisdom-of-the-webs?source=feed#comment-116229 116229 Thu, 14 Feb 2008 05:56:25 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/64283-mainstreet-com-worst-idea-ever?source=feed#comment-115984 115984
But the irony was that some of them did better than the indexes.]]> Tue, 12 Feb 2008 17:23:48 -0500
But the irony was that some of them did better than the indexes.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/64085-the-dollar-the-euro-and-oil?source=feed#comment-115738 115738 Mon, 11 Feb 2008 15:54:41 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/63908-google-to-acquire-stake-in-cnet?source=feed#comment-115674 115674 Mon, 11 Feb 2008 10:31:30 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/63969-the-fed-won-t-save-us-but-here-s-how-to-make-money-barron-s-interview-with-jeremy-grantham?source=feed#comment-115630 115630
Alpha Seeker: I think Soros and Faber read Grantham, not the other way around. He's that respected. "There might be 5% downside left." Why only 5%? He's saying that the next leg down of the credit crisis has yet to hit.]]> Mon, 11 Feb 2008 01:32:42 -0500
Alpha Seeker: I think Soros and Faber read Grantham, not the other way around. He's that respected. "There might be 5% downside left." Why only 5%? He's saying that the next leg down of the credit crisis has yet to hit.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/63919-a-low-cost-fully-diversified-all-etf-portfolio?source=feed#comment-115568 115568 Sun, 10 Feb 2008 17:24:36 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/63912-microsoft-s-80-billion-and-growing-yahoo-headache?source=feed#comment-115567 115567
You need to adjust the numbers for relative performance, but they're still bad. Just not as bad as you wrote.]]> Sun, 10 Feb 2008 17:14:10 -0500
You need to adjust the numbers for relative performance, but they're still bad. Just not as bad as you wrote.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/63763-india-s-exploding-real-estate-market-shades-of-the-florida-condo-bubble?source=feed#comment-115190 115190 Fri, 08 Feb 2008 06:34:55 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/63634-cisco-hits-new-52-week-low?source=feed#comment-115118 115118
Can you provide more justification for that comment? Any thoughts on valuation? Catalysts? If it's a long term buy, what is your projected EPS a couple of years out from here?
]]> Thu, 07 Feb 2008 15:12:05 -0500
Can you provide more justification for that comment? Any thoughts on valuation? Catalysts? If it's a long term buy, what is your projected EPS a couple of years out from here?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/63294-ten-solid-clean-energy-companies-to-buy-on-the-cheap-9-koninklijke-philips-electronics?source=feed#comment-114926 114926 Wed, 06 Feb 2008 16:24:34 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/63214-downgrading-monster-worldwide-on-deteriorating-employment-outlook?source=feed#comment-114821 114821 Wed, 06 Feb 2008 01:42:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/63228-western-cities-top-u-s-home-price-declines?source=feed#comment-114819 114819 Wed, 06 Feb 2008 01:40:50 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/63229-bankrate-earnings-fall-short-but-says-2008-is-off-to-great-start?source=feed#comment-114818 114818 Wed, 06 Feb 2008 01:39:00 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/63233-jdsu-beats-the-street-sees-q3-in-line?source=feed#comment-114817 114817 Wed, 06 Feb 2008 01:37:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/63101-buying-the-oversold-financial-sector?source=feed#comment-114719 114719 Tue, 05 Feb 2008 15:21:56 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/63100-jeffrey-saut-where-to-invest-as-the-rally-continues?source=feed#comment-114601 114601 Tue, 05 Feb 2008 08:12:01 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/62787-optionsexpress-reports-solid-earnings-now-taking-market-share?source=feed#comment-114583 114583 Tue, 05 Feb 2008 03:15:15 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/62795-thestreet-com-redesign?source=feed#comment-114344 114344 Sun, 03 Feb 2008 16:08:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/62762-microsoft-yahoo-the-deal-of-the-dinos?source=feed#comment-114288 114288
"Yahoo... owns or controls content, markets to bring audience in, then bombards us with ads until we leave. Contrast that with Google, which comes to us with its ads and content and tools, all of which I can distribute on my blog."

The problem with this claim is that the majority of Google's revenue comes from ads on Google.com. That business, in fact, is growing faster than its ad business for publishers (ie. the ads on your blog). And Google's recent earnings miss was due to disappointing ad revenue from partner websites, not its own search property.

In other words, Google's business model, like Yahoo's, is centered on its own website.

Perhaps the distinction your looking for is actually this. Google provides a service that leverages the growth of the Internet. The more web sites there are, the more critical search becomes. Yahoo's business, in contrast, is threatened by the growth of the web. The more blogs and other content websites there are, the more competition for Yahoo.

If you read Yahoo's latest conf call transcript ( www.seekingalpha.com/a... ), you'll see that their strategy is to try to become the "starting point" for the web, ie. the filter and jumping point that people need to navigate the web:

"People seek out and find content from multiple sources, sites and social networks. Consequently, they’re gravitating toward those starting points that will help them simplify, yet also tap the broad richness of what the web has to offer. These starting points may send people to the far reaches of the web, but they come back to them because they satisfy our needs to communicate and find things on a daily basis... For Yahoo!, the five properties that are most critical in this regard are our Home Page, Search, Mail, My, and Mobile. There are also a few anchor property verticals like Sports, Finance and News that drive traffic to those starting points and therefore play a central role in our strategy. We believe that by leveraging Yahoo!’s enormous scale, insights and deep relationships with users and employing an open approach we are uniquely positioned to become the most frequent online starting point for users. To bolster this focus and our ability to execute on these most important services, we’re deemphasizing, opening up to third parties or outsourcing many of our other properties and initiatives."

The question is whether a My Yahoo page can ever compete with a simple search box from Google as the starting point of choice.]]> Sun, 03 Feb 2008 01:53:58 -0500
"Yahoo... owns or controls content, markets to bring audience in, then bombards us with ads until we leave. Contrast that with Google, which comes to us with its ads and content and tools, all of which I can distribute on my blog."

The problem with this claim is that the majority of Google's revenue comes from ads on Google.com. That business, in fact, is growing faster than its ad business for publishers (ie. the ads on your blog). And Google's recent earnings miss was due to disappointing ad revenue from partner websites, not its own search property.

In other words, Google's business model, like Yahoo's, is centered on its own website.

Perhaps the distinction your looking for is actually this. Google provides a service that leverages the growth of the Internet. The more web sites there are, the more critical search becomes. Yahoo's business, in contrast, is threatened by the growth of the web. The more blogs and other content websites there are, the more competition for Yahoo.

If you read Yahoo's latest conf call transcript ( www.seekingalpha.com/a... ), you'll see that their strategy is to try to become the "starting point" for the web, ie. the filter and jumping point that people need to navigate the web:

"People seek out and find content from multiple sources, sites and social networks. Consequently, they’re gravitating toward those starting points that will help them simplify, yet also tap the broad richness of what the web has to offer. These starting points may send people to the far reaches of the web, but they come back to them because they satisfy our needs to communicate and find things on a daily basis... For Yahoo!, the five properties that are most critical in this regard are our Home Page, Search, Mail, My, and Mobile. There are also a few anchor property verticals like Sports, Finance and News that drive traffic to those starting points and therefore play a central role in our strategy. We believe that by leveraging Yahoo!’s enormous scale, insights and deep relationships with users and employing an open approach we are uniquely positioned to become the most frequent online starting point for users. To bolster this focus and our ability to execute on these most important services, we’re deemphasizing, opening up to third parties or outsourcing many of our other properties and initiatives."

The question is whether a My Yahoo page can ever compete with a simple search box from Google as the starting point of choice.]]>