Long-Short Guy

Amazon Strengthens Its Digital Hand With Purchase of Audible

Amazon's stock should take a hit for this. If Amazon was confident that it could maintain its market share in media as the market moves to digital downloads, it wouldn't need to do this acquisition. But it realizes that the shift to digital will result in a hit to its media market share. So it's just paid $300MM to stay in the game. And that's probably only a first move.

Amazon Call Details: Web Services Demand Grows, Kindle's a Hit

Thomas: completely agree with your point about the Kindle. Did Jeff Bezos give hard numbers for Kindle shipments on the call? (I haven't read the transcript yet.) If not, you have to ask yourself why.

Amazon Call Details: Web Services Demand Grows, Kindle's a Hit

Digital media is a threat to Amazon more than an opportunity. Why? Because Apple owns the market, Netfix is trying to enter, and the barriers to entry in providing standard MP3s is low. Contrast that with Amazon's competitive advantage until now: infrastructure for efficient storage and shipping of physical goods.

Amazon is trying to build competitive advantage in digital media by investing heavily in IT infrastructure. But the jury is out on whether it will be able to maintain the same market share in digital as it has in phyical media.

Can eBay's New Fee Structure Fend Off Amazon?

I guess I'm one of those morons then.

I was chatting recently with one eBay seller who told me he gets much better prices on Amazon and prefers it.

And if you read eBay's transcript, it's focusing more and more on its fixed price business. Sounds like Amazon's third party sellers to me.

7 Earnings Previews: GOOG, ISRG, MA, ICE, VMW, AMZN, DLB

Congrats! On VMWare, you wrote:

"Essentially priced for perfection (must beat and raise) with a high trailing P/E of 161, you can expect something big to happen after the bell Monday."

7 Earnings Previews: GOOG, ISRG, MA, ICE, VMW, AMZN, DLB

This is excellent -- really thorough and informative. Thank you.

Under the Radar News - Monday

"Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach, one of the world's leading economists, says the oncoming U.S. recession will dwarf the dotcom slump in its magnitude."

At the same time, the people who run the middle east sovereign wealth funds are saying in Davos that US financials and real estate are at bargain basement prices. Real estate is a real asset, and inflation is rising, so it's hard to see how it can keep falling in price.

Cramer's 'Four Horsemen' Crumble

The "four horsemen" are momentum stocks; you don't own momentum stocks in a slowing economy and declining market. It's that simple.

Under The Radar News - Wednesday

Re. the Cisco hiring freeze: I heard that Goldman has implemented a hiring freeze as well.

Amazon's a Sell - AmTech Research

This is a smart call, because sentiment on AMZN is at an all time high. For example, this article:

www.nytimes.com/2008/0...

Here's the opening -- sentiment watchers take note:

My Christmas story — the one I've been telling and retelling these last 10 days — began on Friday, Dec. 21.

It was early in the morning, and I had awoken with the sudden, sinking realization that a present I had bought for one of my sons hadn't yet arrived. It wasn't just any present either; it was a PlayStation 3, a $500 item, and a gift, I happened to know from my sources, that he was hoping for.

Like most things I buy online, the PlayStation had come from Amazon.com. So I went to the site and tracked the package — something, thankfully, that is a snap to do on Amazon. What I saw made my heart sink: the package had not only been shipped, it had been delivered to my apartment building days earlier and signed for by one of my neighbors. I knocked on my neighbor's door, and asked if she still had the PlayStation. No, she said; after signing for it, she had put it downstairs in the hallway.

Now I was nearly distraught. In all likelihood, the reason I hadn't seen the package earlier in the week is because it had been stolen, probably by someone delivering something else to the building. Even if that wasn't the case, the one thing I knew for sure was that it was gone — for which I could hardly blame Amazon.

Nonetheless, I got on the phone with an Amazon customer service representative, and explained what had happened: the PlayStation had been shipped, delivered and signed for. It just didn't wind up in my hands. Would Amazon send me a replacement? In my heart of hearts, I knew I didn't have a leg to stand on. I was pleading for mercy.

I shudder to think how this entreaty would have gone over at, say, Apple, where customer service is an oxymoron. But the Amazon customer service guy didn't blink. After assuring himself that I had never actually touched or seen the PlayStation, he had a replacement on the way before the day was out. It arrived on Christmas Eve. Amazon didn't even charge me for the shipping. My son was very happy. So, of course, was I...

Amazon: Another Killer Quarter

BTW, these write ups are outstanding: all the key info in the shortest possible number of words. You're doing a fantastic job.

Amazon: Another Killer Quarter

Amazon has started showing ads on its product pages -- they probably don't account for much revenue, but are 100% margin. I'd be interested to hear on the call how much profit and margin basis points that added.