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Thalidomide Baby

Thalidomide Baby
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  • Did ARCP Lie To Us? [View article]
    It's going to be funny in a year to look back at all of these articles bashing on ARCP as unsuitable for investment when it was so undervalued temporarily.

    Here's my advice: Buy low and sell high.
    Dec 29, 2014. 01:38 AM | 28 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Could Be On Sale Soon, Again [View article]
    If you want to be a buyer of BA at 8 or less, you better get busy inventing a time travel machine. . .
    Oct 31, 2013. 08:00 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buy A CD When I Can Buy W.P. Carey? [View article]
    "Why Buy a CD When I Can Buy W.P. Carey?"

    Mr. Thomas, there is really no fair comparison between a CD with a guaranteed return of principle and a REIT where the investment is not guaranteed. The level of risk is much higher with WP Carey than with a CD.

    There is already a huge problem right now with people seeking yield in risky investments thinking they are safe or thinking that they can handle the risk. It's not a good idea to encourage it.

    WP Carey may yield a little over 5% vs. a CD at 1%, but is a 4% difference in yield worth the risk? It would take 3 years simply to break even if there were a $10 drop in share price, which is not at all unlikely. REIT prices go up and down. CD prices do not.

    I'm not saying that REITs are not a good investment, but they are not an appropriate substitute for a CD.
    Feb 4, 2015. 08:46 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: OK, Now We're Cautious On ARCP [View article]
    Now is not the time to be indecisive.

    Everyone who went long on this stock after the accounting cover-up was announced knew exactly what they were getting into and could foresee that there would be a few more bumps in the road and maybe even a couple of potholes before getting back on the expressway.

    Moody's is a joke and management changes were certainly needed. Schorsch is gone, too, which more than outweighs Kay leaving. He stepped down from positions at the other related companies, as well.

    Schorsch leaving is one item on the to-do list checked off.

    Stock should lift as soon as reports are filed and also when a new management team is announced, unless there is massive accounting fraud or clowns are brought in to manage the company.
    Dec 17, 2014. 01:12 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: Playing Hardball With Corvex [View article]
    I trust Rufrano a lot more than Meister as far as ARCP is concerned. I'm don't think Rufrano actually needs Meister's "advice" or help assembling a new board.

    Meister should be satisfied with competent leadership being installed, find something else to keep himself busy, and let them run the REIT without making himself a pest.

    If competent leadership isn't installed, then that would be a different matter. However, everything has been going right along as it should.
    Mar 13, 2015. 10:10 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty: What Investors Must Consider Now [View article]
    An independent and competent forensics accounting team HAS reviewed the books. . .
    Nov 4, 2014. 08:44 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Corp.: A Full Explanation Of The Loss [View article]
    When someone raises a valid question about an article in the comments, it is better if the author answers it in the comments so that other readers can benefit from the answer.
    Jan 17, 2015. 06:43 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARCP - A Tempest In A Teapot Creates Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Thank you for giving a level-headed analysis of the situation.

    The management of this company is still a HOT MESS so it shouldn't trade on an equivalent basis with Realty Income. Shareholders certainly deserve a premium in exchange for the greater risk and lack of predictability.

    However, I'll settle for it moving back to a reasonable valuation and NAV is a perfectly acceptable goal for the time being. If some of the problems that existed before this was exposed clear, then it might move higher.

    I can't blame conservative dividend-oriented investors in retirement from fleeing from this REIT, but they need to understand why they were invested in it to begin with.

    Long ARCP and ARCPP at these bargain prices. It's a great opportunity for those with the stomach for it. Once the SEC or FBI or the AG give the all-clear, it will be too late to get a good deal on the assets and a 10%+ yield on cost.
    Nov 3, 2014. 09:25 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Before And After Amazon.com's Amazing Quarter And The Great Improvement [View article]
    Apple is a one-trick pony. Amazon is a three-ring circus!
    Feb 2, 2015. 02:51 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty: What Investors Must Consider Now [View article]
    Creative plan but moving assets into a non-traded entity would not be a positive development. The overpaid executives are not going to do anything to lessen their payout, which is what I think is probably the root cause of what happened.

    The assets are now undervalued by the market. Management will probably sell some off to clean up the balance sheet.

    Overall, the risks are MUCH lower than they were a week ago. The books have already been inspected minutely by an outside forensic accounting team and outside lawyers have been involved, as well.

    The HOT MESS management team will be very careful about everything they do going forward. Having the SEC, FBI, AG, a pack of class-action lawyers, and possibly state AGs breathing down their necks should put them on their best behavior.

    It is also possible that Schorsch will get kicked out and ARCP can truly function as an independent company without all of the out of the left pocket, into the right pocket problems.

    So I firmly believe that this event and its consequences are a net positive for new investors, who have the opportunity to pick up the stock on sale. Existing shareholders were punched around by the share price decline, but will be better off in the long run.
    Nov 4, 2014. 06:30 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: The Frustration Mounts For Shareholders [View article]
    The share price has tripled in three years. I'm not at all disappointed.

    They had a big mess to clean up and they are still mopping.
    Mar 23, 2015. 02:03 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Provides Some Early Fall Color For REIT Investors [View article]
    Wienec is right on the mark. The general weakness in REITS yesterday was not due to any REIT news.

    The action yesterday is apparently the beginning another interest rate scare like the one last year (which was just an early sign) with the immediate precipitating cause being the strong consumer retail sales report. When and if the economy stabilizes and there is even a whiff of inflation, interest rates will start moving up. REITs will weaken as other dividend-paying asset classes start looking better.

    I was watching trading in several key REITs closely yesterday, but didn't nibble even for a short-term trade, because it seems like there will be more volatility to come. It didn't look overblown at all. The higher-quality REITs are not yielding very much at all right now, so prices need to come down.

    Other signs of peakiness are M&A activity and redemption of preferreds.
    Sep 13, 2014. 09:42 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon Has No Profits (And Why It Works) [View article]
    Finally someone who understands Amazon!
    Sep 5, 2014. 03:26 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Blue Chip Mall REIT On Blue Light Special [View article]
    Judging from the chart, TCO could very easily go to the mid-60s or even below $60. I would hold off until then, especially considering that the yield is currently under 3%.

    A 3% yield on an investment in real estate is not worth the risks involved, unless it is accompanied by significant capital gains.

    I'm not seeing the margin of safety. . . just the opposite.
    Feb 20, 2015. 08:57 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Of The Sucker Yield: Bumpy Roads Ahead For Wheeler REIT [View article]
    An 11 or 12% return on leveraged real estate seems very reasonable to me. That's not a comment on this particular REIT or the sustainability of its dividend, just a general statement.

    The REAL sucker yields right now are on the mature REITs that pay 3 to 5%, such as Realty Income Corp.

    No, the dividend for "O" is not at risk, but there is a significant and apparently unrecognized threat of significant capital losses in a short period of time if the market ever decides that is an insufficient yield for the investment. I would argue that 3 to 5% is an insufficient return on a real estate investment, even one with no leverage at all.

    Dividend investors are piling into the reliable dividend stocks even as the yields have plummeted. They are even piling into much riskier shares seeking high yields. They don't seem to care about potential capital losses but only about the dividend. It's going to end badly.
    Jan 28, 2015. 09:27 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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