eddybaby

U.S. Treasuries in a Bubble, Not Commodities

Ask yourself why the Fed is working so hard to pump money out there at present? A likely answer is that they see the most significant threat to the US economy as deflation.

With this in mind (and the fact that even the Fed & Congress can't go on forever pumping cash) it makes some sense that treasuries are being bid so high (and down to low yields)

It could well be the equity & commodity markets that "blink first"

Meredith Whitney Now Expects a Double Dip

Miss W. knows her numbers. No-one knows when but we can be pretty sure that things are going to deteriorate significantly from these levels.

Amazon-Sized Craziness

AMZN is a great company without question. Should that translate into such a nosebleed PE?

Think RIM a few months ago; all was good and the sky was the limit. The same reality check that hit RIM will hit AMZN too. For further evidence of the dangers of bidding up stocks hoping the multiple will hold, look back at MSFT or WMT both great, but both have flat-lined for years to allow for the PE to compress back to more sensible levels.

If AMZN is still >100 in a year, I'll eat my kindle.

10-Year Treasury Yield Is the Giveaway

"Bubbles last until they feel like fundamentals"
Shakespeare himself couldn't have put it better.

Weekly Market Notes: Don't Fight the Fed

Nice piece Ned.
Well considered & well written.
I tend to agree (although with a sickening feeling in the bottom of my stomach) that we might just be in for an ugly rise in the markets, that is completely unwarranted from a fundamental POV, but (I can hear the gunslingers saying) "hey, who cares so long as I can get out before the rest of you"

Each time I think perhaps I have fully gauged in the madness of markets, I find out I have underestimated it!

Cramer's Mad Money - When the Facts Change...(10/23/09)

I guess if you make enough calls, some will be correct.

David Rosenberg: The Great Fraudulation

Oh Bugger!

Harley-Davidson: Opportunity Exists to the Downside

Couldn't agree more David. HOG typifies the current overbought state of the market. (And then some!)

Harley Davidson Executives, Investors Wear Generational Blinders

All the wrong places at the wrong time. Very hard to understand why the stock is hitting 52W highs, unless it's a short squeeze. Hard to see this above 20 within a few weeks.

Harley-Davidson Q3: Earnings Miss, Guidance Narrowed

I heard the c/call and was short going into the earnings season, and these past few days have amazed me. how on earth do you get a 10%+ rise on what was a pretty dismal review of Hog's situation?

Did anyone question the logic of buying then selling MV Agusta?
does anyone think that a forward PE of @ 40+ is a little peaky for a stock in all the wrong places at the wrong time.

This is one of the ultimate high value consumer discretionary with a heavy US base. That in itself is enough to keep HOG low for potentially a couple of years.

I don't like to feel cynical, but F*&K me if this price move wasn't a set up!

Hang on in there shorts, our day will come soon!

What Can Microsoft Do to Increase Search Share?

Culturally MSFT just don't seem to get the notion of being User-Friendly, and unfortunately that is exactly what Google, apple etc focus on. Having it so good for so long appears to have given them such a "take it or leave it" attitude that they can't seem to get the high level of dislike towards them our there.

MSFT have huge capability, but unless they really start to see things through users eye's they may just wake up one morning to find that much (more) of their lunch has been stolen.

I am a MSFT shareholder.

Why I Like E*TRADE's Bond Service Platform

Good to know. Like you I've found it near impossible as a retail investor to get decent spreads, good inventory & decent commissions.

I get the feeling there is a lot of latent demand out there if one of the big brokers can really build a sound retail bond platform.

O Canada (Part II): There's Gold in Them Thar Hills - and Plains

Not to mention Tim Hortons (the stores, not the investment)

What to Do When Interactive Brokers Loses Connectivity

I'm a long time IB client, and although they have some great features in the platform, their support is simply TERRIBLE!

It's like the staff are paid for speed & brevity of response, and very often just gloss over the question asked, leaving you no better off, even if you follow up with them.

They seem indifferent to client needs / concerns, and have a way of letting you know that you are not very important to them, which is not very endearing.

Customer service is an attitude not a process, but IB seem to see it as a "sausage machine" not a constructive dialogue.

Stiglitz on the Markets' Past and Future

Very interesting viewing