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Jan H. Lessner

Jan H. Lessner
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  • Oil: Prices Will Rebound [View article]
    Very good article! Thanks a lot for that. Anyway I'm not as optimistic. Some desperate producers are trying to compensate lower prices by more output.

    There has to be much more blood in the streets.
    Jul 27, 2015. 05:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dissecting Pacific Drilling's Near-Term Strategy [View article]
    I think that PACD won't file bankcruptcy. Before this would happen, the major shareholder would recapitalize it by a secondary rights issue. That would hurt current shareholders because of hefty dilution, but it would prolonge their ability to stay for at least two or more years additionally.
    Jul 27, 2015. 02:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling Wait A Minute... 6 Months Later Is It Still A Whopping Deal? [View article]
    I would like Awilco Drilling to buy back debt sub par. This would immediately boost EPS since the debt is part of the balance sheet at par.

    As pointed out by fellow commentators and in several articles: There will be new contracts, but dayrates will be low. That's not as bad for Awilco Drilling than for competitors since Awilco Drilling has a very low break even level and thus can offer cheaper dayrates.

    OpEx is below 100k and from a cash flow perspective even a 125k dayrate would add value.
    Jul 27, 2015. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling Wait A Minute... 6 Months Later Is It Still A Whopping Deal? [View article]
    That's right - the pay this high dividend because it is there and it doesn't make sense to invest the cash into new rigs. Thus they pay back the cash to the shareholders. Nothing to complain about that.

    Is the dividend yield ridiculously high or the share price ridiculously low?

    If they are liquidating the company in advance buy fulfilling the current contracts which means generating cash from the remaining order backlog and then scrapping the rigs and pay out the proceeds to shareholders after paying down the debt, this would presumably be very profitable for shareholders at current price levels...
    Jul 27, 2015. 06:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Seadrill Planning To Acquire Sevan Drilling? Why This Could Make Sense [View article]
    That's an interesting and valuable article. Anyway I would like to know what the author derives from this. Is it good or bad for current shareholders? In case of delisting and squeeze shareholders would have to accept the price offered by SDRL. Thus I think SDRL would offer a small premium to the price per share, may be 15 to 25 per cent.
    Jul 18, 2015. 02:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Idea: Buy Silver Wheaton, Part 1 - San Dimas [View article]
    Thanks for the link. I'll read it.
    Jul 15, 2015. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iamgold Provides An Update From Ongoing Exploration Of The Pitangui Project In Brazil [View article]
    The cash belongs to the creditors and shareholders and since CEO Letwin and his buddies have proven that they are bad dealmakers and bad miners, it would be in the best interest of creditors and shareholders if IAG buys back the loan at or below par and then uses the rest of the cash to buy back shares or paying an extraordinary dividend.

    Never forget: This cash hasn't been earned but is the result of selling assets which were the source of predictable and solid earnings. IAG has sold it's best assets and acquiring new assets would only make sense if the IRR of those assets is higher than that of the sold assets.
    Jul 15, 2015. 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Idea: Buy Silver Wheaton, Part 1 - San Dimas [View article]
    SLW seems to me a great company and I like the streaming business model. Anyway all that won't result in rising share price as long as precious metal prices aren't rising.

    The strength of USD and the soon expected rise of interest rates by the FED will keep precious metal prices down. So I don't see a clear case for investing in precious metal stocks.
    Jul 15, 2015. 07:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • High Arctic Energy Services Is The Best Value In The Canadian Oil Patch - Sort Of [View article]
    Concerning this statement: >however High Arctic Energy Services had taken on several years of losses which resulted in a significant tax pool.<

    I wouldn't see this such positive. They activated the loss as tax assets and thus it inflates the asset part of the balance sheet. If income shrinks they probably will have to write down this tax pool. This won't have a cash effect, but it will affect bottom line earnings.
    Jul 10, 2015. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Taxman Is Coming After Silver Wheaton [View article]
    SLW has provided complete data to the tax authorities and the authorities had assessed the data in those years an taxed SLW. I don't see why CRA now, years later, should be allowed to move away from their own decisions.

    If this would be legally possible, every company should consider to leave this Banana Republic.
    Jul 9, 2015. 05:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ithaca Energy - Fleshing Out The Buy Case [View article]
    Reading the Q1/2015 presentation I felt really good until it came to the tax. The pre-tax earnings of $7 M turned into a loss of $ 26,1 M by a
    >Reduced Tax Rate Impact $M (41.5) - Non-cash charge from reduction in tax rate (to 50%) applied to deferred tax asset<?

    Ok, it is a "non-cash charge" - that's fine. But what does this mean? Will this recur in the following quarters an bring down bottom line?
    Jul 9, 2015. 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling Wait A Minute... 6 Months Later Is It Still A Whopping Deal? [View article]
    Hi FT,

    I respectfully disagree. In my humble opinion one rig means less risk than several rigs. Management can focus one their two rigs an one area, UK North Sea. Their attention isn't distracted by creditors knocking at the door, by yards which have to be approached to postpone delivery of newbuilds, etc.

    Take a look at the balance sheet. In my view liquidation value is already above current enterprise value.

    And the upside potential is enormous. They need just one mid term contract with a cheap dayrate to jump.

    How to trade it? Well, it has fallen like a stone and thus I think it is oversold. if You buy it now, You can pocket the dividends while You are waiting for higher share prices. Even if divvy would be halved it would still be a very high dividend yield.

    Of course it is still a speculative buy and I wouldn't advise anyone to buy the stock because of the dividend. But why not buy a portion now and if You are right and it goes down to $4 average down then at that level?
    Jul 9, 2015. 07:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Wrong With Petroamerica? [View article]
    Wait a few month and then the bullish article writers will tell You that a further declining share price is caused only by window dressing and selling for taxation reasons.

    A guru will always find some "reasons" for his believers to explain, why the harsh reality isn't in line with what he has promised. The more reality is getting worse the more the believers are willing to follow the explanation because they need more solace to stomach the harsh reality.

    It's similar with penny stocks. The bulls with penny stocks in deep loss are willing to clutch even at a straw. Of course they may feel better if they look at stocks performing even worse or companies which went bankcrupt. Anyway their losses are real and won't fade away because other suffered more.
    Jul 9, 2015. 03:08 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling Wait A Minute... 6 Months Later Is It Still A Whopping Deal? [View article]
    AWILCF still has a major advantage compared to nearly all other competitors and this is a fortress like balance sheet. Even if the market continues like it is until 2018 or even longer there is no risk of bankruptcy for AWILCF.

    Secondly have very low break even level for both rigs and thus can offer them at lower dayrates than others.
    Jul 9, 2015. 02:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North Atlantic Drilling - New Lows Ahead [View article]
    The share price can decrease further and at some point they may decide to run a reverse-split to get the price technically above $1 again.

    That happened recently at another company, in which SDRL is the majority shareholder: Sevan Drilling
    Jul 9, 2015. 02:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment