Seeking Alpha

Jan H. Lessner

Jan H. Lessner
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Jan H. Lessner's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Awilco Drilling: A Way To Arbitrage 2015 Oil Prices? [View article]
    Never say never. The right time to buy has come when there is blood in the streets and if a competitor is forced to sell assets at fire sale prices it could be a good opportunity for Awilco Drilling to bail in.

    For example HERO has a long term contract for a North Sea job at pretty high dayrates for a newbuild which is currently under construction. If HERO needs cash they could be forced to sell such an asset.
    May 19, 2015. 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Einhorn's Fracking Concerns Are Nothing New - Part 3: More Opportunities For Profit [View article]
    TDW and GLF may be good picks but it seems as if their Norwegian peers are even cheaper. Especially Deep Sea Supply has very low metrics (P/E, P/B) although they are less leveraged than SDRL, NADL.

    Further support vessel have the advantage that their cost are mainly OpEx for the operator of an offshore oilfield while rig costs are CapEx. the operators have cut down CapEx drastically but the want to maintain production.
    May 18, 2015. 05:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ship Finance International Now At A Good Entry Point [View article]
    Fully agree with the article. Regarding the deal with FRO one shouldn't forget, that FRO terminated several lease contracts and always had to pay a high termination fee. Taking this into consideration I would assume that SFL got the better deal than FRO.

    I would further assume that SFL will benefit from the current crisis of the rig market. Either SDRL itself or SDRL's competitors may be forced to sell some rigs with long term firm contracts and lease them back.
    May 18, 2015. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: The Strong Buy Rating Has Become Even Stronger [View article]
    Very nice if they meet their production guidance. Anyway they are producing losses. They've burned money and they will burn more money.
    May 15, 2015. 07:15 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: The Strong Buy Rating Has Become Even Stronger [View article]
    The Petroamerica story always evocates me of tribal wisdom of the Dakota Indians: 'When you discover you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount."

    Anyway PTAXF management found several alternatives to deal with the situation, compare here:
    May 15, 2015. 05:16 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling: A Way To Arbitrage 2015 Oil Prices? [View article]
    Life is a gamble. Buying stocks is a gamble. And as such AWLCF is a gamble.

    Anyway none of us knows whether this market is the same market, which will be in place in 2016. Early 2014 very few have foreseen such an oil price decline and the same people who thought, that the oil price will stay above $ 80 now predict, that the oil price will never rise above $ 80 again.

    It is quite reasonable that there is enough decomissioning work for WilHunter in 2016 and dayrate at break even dayrates, which is substantially lower tha n the current dayrate.
    May 13, 2015. 04:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Ltd: Complete Fleet Status Analysis As Of May 6th And Commentary [View article]
    ORIG hasn't acquired new contracts too. But ORIG has already a better utilization for the remainder of 2015 and 2016 AND they recently postponed the delivery of newbuilds and thus they reduced CapEx for the next years significantly.
    May 13, 2015. 03:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: The Strong Buy Rating Has Become Even Stronger [View article]
    I suppose above 90 per cent. As long as there is no such offer, this stock is for dreams. Anyway You're implicitly asking the right question: Why doesn't anyone, either private equity or bigger oil companies, make use of this 'lifetime opportunity'?
    May 11, 2015. 04:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: The Strong Buy Rating Has Become Even Stronger [View article]
    You're fully right. Those who wanted to believe in the story of an undervalued gem hoped for lower cost of good sales because of lower transportation costs. There has been a huge hype in articles and comments about this.

    But none of them has foreseen or even thought about the risk of increasing costs due to water problems. They've focussed on decreasing debt costs but failed to look at G&A.

    No problem for the management. If they've burned through the cash, they will further dilute shareholders by issuing new shares. And as long as there are enough bullish articles they will find enough SA-readers buying this stuff.
    May 8, 2015. 03:29 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silvercorp Is Undervalued, Profitable, And Buying Back Its Own Shares [View article]
    Then everyone should wait for that before buying SVM shares...
    May 6, 2015. 01:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling: A Way To Arbitrage 2015 Oil Prices? [View article]
    Scrapping WilHunter is unlikely. If there were low probability for a new contract in 2016 they would cold stack the rig. This would drive down operating costs to nearly zero.

    Anyway Awilco has a very low operating costs and thus low break even. They can offer a very competitive price and there is a lot work for this kind of rigs. Maintaining production by well workover and legally required plug and abandon work of depleted wells is something completely different than exploratory drilling.
    May 6, 2015. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Acadian Timber Is A Buy [View article]
    What's about fire, bugs and dry wheather?
    May 6, 2015. 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Arctic Energy Services: Spring Clearance Sale Is Ending Soon [View article]
    Bad news for the Alberta oil industry:
    May 6, 2015. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Questions For TAL International's Investor Day [View article]
    Would be nice to read an updated article including the arguments from this fruitful discussion.
    May 5, 2015. 02:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fortum Yields Almost 6% And May Have A Special Dividend On The Way [View article]
    I think the main problem is that electric energy prices are coming down even in North Europe. In most parts of Europe as well as in the US Photovoltaic has reached grid parity. NG and coal have become cheap too, so power stations burning NG and coal may stay in competition.

    Nuclear and Hydro have low cash cost but they are producing a lot of depreciation, since they are a front end loaded investment. Their all-in sustainable costs are high and won't get down. Nuclear has an additional problem to get rid of the nuclear waste. That may be cheap an easy in China, Russia and US, where You can sink it in the next river, but it is very cheap in environmentalist countries.
    May 4, 2015. 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment