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Jan H. Lessner

Jan H. Lessner
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  • Seadrill Limited: Complete Fleet Status As Of December 9 And Recent Downgrade [View article]
    Sorry, You are clueless about what You're talking...

    As seller SDRL has no weak hand against SDLP. That is obviously not the case, which You could easily know, if You hadn't ignored the last deal between them.

    As seller against Rosneft SDRL has no weak hands since Rosneft isn't able to find any other seller for such HE Rigs. that is, because all other sellers are hindered by the sanctions from selling.

    Selling the stake in the Mexican JV is a no brainer, since these units have long term contracts. You are ignoring facts.

    Cancelling or deferring newbuilds - on the contrary: The wharfs are in a weak position against SDRL.

    So You're arguments EXTREMLY LACK PLAUSIBILITY.
    Dec 22, 2014. 02:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Limited: Complete Fleet Status As Of December 9 And Recent Downgrade [View article]
    SDRL still has some options to solve the debt problem.

    1. More dropdowns to SDLP. -> 2B
    2. Transferring NADL from Bermuda to Hongkong to rescue and scaling up the Rosneft-deal and selling the stake in NADL. -> 5B
    3. Selling the stake in the Mexican joint venture -> 1B
    4. Deferring or canceling some of the newbuild orders. -> 1B
    Dec 22, 2014. 11:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar: Well Positioned For The Future [View article]
    Yes, JASO is rewarding it's shareholders. CSIQ isn't.

    If they are so undervalued, why don't we see insiders buying share or a share buyback by the company?
    Dec 22, 2014. 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar: Well Positioned For The Future [View article]
    This is another article cheering the growth of the solar industry and energy generation by PV. CSIQ's production capacity and shipments grew fantastically. That's fine, but it only helps the top line.

    The author commits several times to be shocked, surprised, etc. Perhaps better look at bottom line and the probability of a shrinking margin.

    PV in India may be a great story, but a poor country like India never will guarantee feed in tariffs like Canada, US an Germany in former times. Taxpayers support for PV in the western countries won't come back and won't be repeated by India or China.

    The author gets enthusiastic looking at CSIQs success to decrease costs. Maybe look what the competitors have achieved too. CSIQ isn't the cost leader. Cost leader is Jinko Solar.

    Further the author warmly welcomes vertically integration. What is it good for? For what reason is it better to produce polysilicium than to buy it from specialized producers of this stuff?
    Dec 22, 2014. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar's Focus On Fast-Growing Solar Markets Will Lead To Upside In The Long Run [View article]
    Talking or writing about growth sounds fine. If You are an environmentalist You're interested in growth of PV measured by MW. If You are an investor You should look at EPS.

    During the whole article nothing about EBIT or EPS. Does it help a shareholder if CSIQ growths is PV output, if margins are declining? Clearly: no!

    This article is neither written for investor nor for alpha seekers.
    Dec 15, 2014. 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Limited: Complete Fleet Status And Third Quarter Results Analysis [View article]
    Communication of managements to shareholders is in parts similar to how politicians communicate to citizens.

    Except for numbers and facts everything is covered by the disclaimer and there is a reason, why they seek safe harbor.

    So if management expects/hopes/wishes to be able to do something, this doesn't mean that they will do so whatever happens.

    I haven't expected that they maintain the dividend and I haven't overestimated on this management statement. Therefore I'm not disappointed. On the contrary, I liked to by shares Wednesday below $17.

    Anyway, I should have waited after the results of the OPEC meeting have been published. Share price probably will come down further.
    Nov 28, 2014. 03:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Limited: Complete Fleet Status And Third Quarter Results Analysis [View article]
    Management never promised a dividend. The statement concerning the ability to continue dividend payments has been misunderstood. In some case it seems like wishful thinking.

    JF suffers the same pain that all other shareholders suffer.

    The money spend for dividends is taken away. It still belongs to shareholders and is working for them in their company.

    I don't see the reason to complain about.

    The OPEC decision and the falling oil price seems to me a much bigger problem. If they hadn't cut the dividend, they would do it now.

    But I agree: SDRL shouldn't have increased the dividend last year and instead they should have begun a decreasing dividend scheme. Anyway, they've done the right step now.
    Nov 27, 2014. 04:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Limited: Complete Fleet Status And Third Quarter Results Analysis [View article]
    The exact statement by SDRL has been as quoted in the Article: "We expect to be able to support this dividend level for (the) foreseeable future."

    The key words are
    - expect
    - able to

    They are still able to pay the dividend but not willing to do so any more. It would have been a weak decision to just cut the dividend. If they had done so, there would have been myriads of analysts discussing further cuts and shareholders focussed on dividends would have disappointed anyway.

    I was not surprised by this move but really surprised by the markets reaction. thus i bought some shares at around 17 USD.
    Nov 27, 2014. 11:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    A really fine article. Thanks a lot for this. Anyway, even if this analyst has made some false assumptions and used wrong data, the remaining question is, whether CSIQ will be able to defend it's gross margin.

    In general they are a producer of a commodity. They have no or small moat against other producer like YGE, JKS, TSL, SUNE, FSLR, etc. CSIQ is neither the biggest producer (YGE?) nor the cheapest (JKS?). So, why should a customer pay a higher price to CSIQ instead of buying cheaper from a competitor?

    If this general thesis is right there gross margin will shrink.

    The author detected some valuable counter-effects against this shrink thesis, f. e. the Chinese tax issue, favorable gross margins in the current Japanese projects.

    Anyway SUNE has got recently some really big projects f. e. in Brazil. I think that CSIQ has no other choice than to scale up. They have to win those big projects although ASP are lower than in former projects. It is a red queen syndrom.
    Nov 25, 2014. 04:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cequence Energy: Deeply Undervalued Gas Play With 88% Upside [View article]
    A very fine piece of work. But according to the snapshot here on Seeking Alpha they have negative EPS. Thus they are loosing value instead of creating some.

    Could You shed some light on this?
    Nov 23, 2014. 04:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Canadian Solar Is A Star Performer [View article]
    Thanks a lot! But I would still assume, that the sold Canadian projects have been the most profitable one, because of favorable PPA or feed-in guarantees.

    Thus I'm still not convinced that CSIQ can remain it growth rate. On the contrary, I assume that we will see a decreasing EPS growth.
    Nov 20, 2014. 04:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Canadian Solar Is A Star Performer [View article]
    SUNE has spun off a YieldCo aka TERP. You'll find a lot of data and public information about this.
    Nov 20, 2014. 04:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Perspective From Russia Part 4 [View article]
    Rosneft's CEO Igor Setchin is a close fellow of Vlad Putin. Thus I assume that he has a qualified opinion about how russia will proceed with Ukraine.

    If the Russians plan a short term solution, there is no need to shift NADL from Bermuda to China or NADL assets to COSL. Then they can finalize the deal in May 2015.

    If they don't count on a short term solution, they will probably give NADL/SDRL a hint to take the necessary steps.
    Nov 20, 2014. 04:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: IAMGOLD's Q3 Earnings Show A Stronger Balance Sheet [View article]
    Thanks a lot! Would You or when would You expect an decreasing effect on the average AISC?
    Nov 19, 2014. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Perspective From Russia Part 4 [View article]
    I don't think that leasing out to a chinese company, which acts as a intermediate, would work.

    Instead NADL could

    - sell the rigs to a Chinese company which directly leases them out to Rosneft. This is from a liquidity point of view even better.

    - change it's domicile from Bermuda to Hongkong or Shanghai or directly to Russia. I think from a tax point of view shareholders would prefer Hongkong.

    - spin off the rigs for Rosneft into a company domiciled in Hongkong.
    Nov 19, 2014. 11:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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