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Jan H. Lessner

Jan H. Lessner
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  • Transocean Ltd: The Company Has Found A New CEO To Replace Ian Strachan - Is It A Good Omen? [View article]
    The Norwegian Continental Shelf market will completely change because of the 4 new CAT-D rigs provided by Songa Offshore ASA. The won't just replace one old rig but are supposed to be much more efficient and thus one of them will do the work of two ore more old low spec rigs.
    Apr 24, 2015. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Ltd: The Company Has Found A New CEO To Replace Ian Strachan - Is It A Good Omen? [View article]
    Analysts often look at the fleet average metrics f. e. fleet age, average dayrate, etc. Thus I assume that the rigs with the lowest dayrates or low utilization drag down the average and dilute the value of the core fleet.

    Further the 5 year surveys don't only take some time but also cost a lot of money payed to the dockyards.

    The chance of quite old rigs (not younger than 1990) which haven't been extensively updated or are highly specialized to contribute to top line and bottom line is very low. RIG should first try to sell them or to spun off these rigs like they have done before (shelf drilling Inc.).

    If that doesn't offer some upside to scrap prices, RIG should courageously sell them for scrap the sooner the better.

    But the most urgent matter is to negotiate with the shipyards which are building new rigs for Transocean to delay delivering times as long as construction progress is not to far. The lower the construction progress the lower are the costs for such agreements.
    Apr 23, 2015. 05:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean: Most Overvalued Of The Drillers [View article]
    The last contract extensions announced by RIG were also about $26+ million.

    SDRL lost two high dayrate UDW rig contracts with PBR and SDRL lost multi-billion revenue of order backlog from the deal with Rosneft...
    Apr 23, 2015. 03:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silvercorp Is Undervalued, Profitable, And Buying Back Its Own Shares [View article]
    Have they bought back shares or did they just an announcement? Look at what they do and not at what they say.

    Further I don't see heavy insider buying. If this is such a compelling buy, why don't the insiders load their trucks with shares?
    Apr 23, 2015. 02:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean: Most Overvalued Of The Drillers [View article]
    Can You provide some data for this? How many millions of order backlog has been added by PGN?
    Apr 21, 2015. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean: Most Overvalued Of The Drillers [View article]
    I wouldn't call RIG overvalued or even the most overvalued offshore driller.

    You can't say that RIG's management has done a job in achieving new contracts. SDRL couldn't do so either. Since the E&P comps have cut CapEx there is little to no tendering activity.

    At this phase of the cycle it is all about financial stability. From this point of view the most overvalued stocks are those of the most leveraged comps like VTG or HERO. RIG has the financial stability to stay until the tide turns.

    Beside this current metrics are rear mirror views. SDRL's problems will occur when the uncontracted newbuilds hit the water during 2015. That are $ 750 million UDW drillships. SDRL cannot scrap or cold stack those rigs. They will accelerate OpEx, depreciation and interest payments of SDRL.
    Apr 20, 2015. 05:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Petroamerica Oil - A Survivor In The Junior E&P Space [View article]
    PTA consistently overpromises and underdelivers. They can still fall further.

    If they need more money to dig holes or let others dig holes for them they do another private placement and dilute shareholders.

    The assets are there but it is questionable how and when PTA rewards shareholders. They are not used to FCF and thus I suppose they will always find something to buy or to spend any CF.
    Apr 20, 2015. 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • G4S Is A Value Stock Waiting For A Catalyst [View article]
    G4S competitor Serco Group Plc has faced a lot of problems and hat to do some harsh write downs. They had to eliminate their dividend and then executed a huge diluting rights issue.

    OK, G4S isn't Serco, but I would assume that the market sees Serco as an indicator that the margins of the last years aren't sustainable.
    Apr 20, 2015. 06:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 11.25% Yankee Bonds From IAMGold, BB-/B1 Rated, Matures October 2020 [View article]
    First, I'm very sorry. I haven't traded at Frankfurt Stock Exchange but Stuttgart Stock exchange, which is another German stock exchange.

    Second, the broker is "comdirect" but i think every German bank offers access to this stock exchange.

    Today's morning bid and ask prices are Geld 87 and 85,88. See link below:
    Apr 17, 2015. 02:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil - I've Seen Cheaper [View article]
    You may take into account that Mr. Markets current discount hasn't been such unfair.
    Apr 17, 2015. 02:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: The Strong Buy Rating Has Become Even Stronger [View article]
    You'll find here enough articles where it is argued, that PTA assets are worth much more than reflected by the share price if these assets are equally valued to other assets which were sold by other companies.

    I've never liked this argument. If PTA had the chance to unlock value by selling assets they should have been the the sellers.
    Apr 17, 2015. 02:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vantage Drilling - A Likely Candidate To Go Under In 2017 [View article]
    I would suppose that some shorters realized their gains...
    Apr 16, 2015. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil - I've Seen Cheaper [View article]
    Some posters have to understand that PTA should be discounted exactly because they are NOT the operator.

    Not being the operator bears the risk to be dependent on the operatorship of others. None of the PTA-bulls has mentioned this risk adequately. They ignored the basics.
    Apr 16, 2015. 01:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iamgold Is Priced Like It Is Highly Leveraged But It Is Sitting On A Ton Of Cash [View article]
    If You several times explicitly point out, that IAG has a very strong balance sheet but just make an indirect statement on the high AISC, this seems to me biased.

    It is fine that You've realized, that IAG needs to continue to lower AISC to make a profit in this pricing environment. Anyway they weren't such succesfull and it is fair to assume that they've already squeezed the lemon.

    Please tell me, by what means IAG will lower AISC at mines like Essakane and Rosebel? They are caught in the geology and if You're mining hard rock with low grades You can't mine ore at low cost levels.

    During the past IAG blended the AISC by the returns from Niobec. This won't happen anymore. Thus it is fair to assume, that average costs will rise.
    Apr 14, 2015. 02:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Iamgold Is Priced Like It Is Highly Leveraged But It Is Sitting On A Ton Of Cash [View article]
    Bad management by Letwin - they locked in the high fuel prices of early 2014. So other miners may profit, but IAG only if the fuel prices stay depressed.
    Apr 14, 2015. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment