Jan H. Lessner

Jan H. Lessner
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  • Sharing My Thoughts On Peabody Energy's Proposed 2018 Debt Exchange  [View article]
    >>The terms of the deal<< as far as I see there isn't a deal. There is an ongoing negotiation process between BTU and certain lenders. If BTU wanted a 100% participation rate, they should make an open tender offer.

    Anyway, instead of overpaying to reach a high participation rate, it would serve the company better, if they use cash to buy back bonds below 0.20 per cent. That would be an efficient use of the money.

    Further I don't see why they don't sell those surface land properties and other non core assets. There should be a market for these assets.
    Jan 27, 2016. 06:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy - A Look At Some Reorganization Scenarios  [View article]
    There has been talked much about bondholders of all classes. But what' about others, f. e. the counterparty of these hedges? If BTU files bankruptcy so the rank higher than unsecured bonds?
    Jan 19, 2016. 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy: A Distressed Short Opportunity  [View article]
    A reverse split is a gift to the short sellers. What BTU needs is a step like SUNE yesterday. As long as there is a price for the equity it can be diluted and now it should be diluted.
    Jan 8, 2016. 04:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Fair And Honest Review Of My 2015 Seeking Alpha Recommendations  [View article]
    As many others have written before: I like Your articles and Your attitude. I've done my own research which far away less professional than Your's and thus I'm in with a mich smaller fraction of my portfolio.

    Trading is not an option for me because of the high spreads trading US-Bonds at German exchanges. I should have waited a little bit longer entering the game, but I would buy my 2018 and 2021 bonds if I wouldn't have done so already. Thus I don't see a reason to sell.

    Anyway I'm also following the articles of Wyco Researcher and I think he has very valid arguments. BTU should't make the VEBA payments. Management should try to save als much cash aus possible to load the bond-buy-back-bazooka. Further the sale of some mines has been a good move, but the deal is just signed but not closed. It should be a no brainer to sell the surface land, since this asset isn't affected by the coal down cycle.
    Jan 4, 2016. 05:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Fair And Honest Review Of My 2015 Seeking Alpha Recommendations  [View article]
    If tricky Dicky had learned anything then it should have been not to cheat in a criminal way...
    Jan 4, 2016. 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Warren Buffett Insight: Buy Monopoly-Like Situations  [View article]
    If RIO was a pure play on iron ore, the article would be much more interesting to discuss. RIO's coal and oil&gas business drags it down. Copper isn't performing well too.

    Further, I don't consider RIO, BHP or VALE as an oligopol. As soon as they try to raise prices, other miners rush to ramp up additional marginal production.
    Dec 29, 2015. 07:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Suncor Energy Is The Berkshire Hathaway Of The Oil Patch  [View article]
    As 38020336 has written, one shouldn't forget CapEx commitments and I would add, that SU even increased the exposure to the Fort Hills project by acquiring a stake in it from Total.

    If they buy more of that kind of assets the stock should better be avoided. Fort Hills needs a much higher oil price to break even in an all-in sustainable cost level.
    Dec 29, 2015. 03:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy: A Distressed Short Opportunity  [View article]
    The bondholders may agree a haircut to avoid Chapter 11. Such a move would deleverage the balance sheet.
    Anyway they won't do so without a hefty dilution of the shareholders. There is no reason for the bondholders to bail out the shareholders.

    The upside for the shares in the long run thus seems to be very limited. You could also say equity is toast.

    Despite this there is short term high volatilty. So even if it were possible to short the stock it was very dangerous.
    Dec 28, 2015. 10:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal: Bankruptcy In 30 Days  [View article]
    Since I don't think that and haven't said that i can't explain why shareholders have any say in the matter. Ask this question to people, who think so.
    Dec 17, 2015. 02:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal: Bankruptcy In 30 Days  [View article]
    Maybe You should think twice before posting ridiculous messages. I'm very sorry if You're suffering losses, but that's not my fault and You shouldn't blame me for Your decisions.

    Beside this we agree that shareholders haven't blocked the deal. Thus in my view it is strange, if an article in December now weighs the question, >>why bondholders should care about holders of ordinary stock, who are always the last in line?<< They haven't cared, they don't and they won't.
    Dec 16, 2015. 06:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal to use grace period for bond interest payment  [View news story]
    If ACI files BK, arme the customers still bound to the contracts? Couldn't the utilities, who've bought 2016 PRB coal at 13.xx USD use the BK to get out of the contract? If there is such a possibility they could try to get the volume cheaper from BTU or CLD which still have uncontracted volumes for 2016.
    Dec 15, 2015. 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal: Bankruptcy In 30 Days  [View article]
    The talks concerning a restructuring weren't blocked by shareholders. I don't know whether they were even asked. The critical parties were the secured lenders vs. the unsecured. The secured lenders blocked the deal because the didn't want dilution by unsecured moving up in the capital structure.

    The sole question is, whether asset value covers the face value of the secured debt. The unsecured may get some pennies on the dollar and they are sitting at the table, but they don't have much bargaining power. Anyway nobody talks about or even with shareholders. They arme just walking deads.
    Dec 15, 2015. 07:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy, Illinois Basin Coal And Cognitive Dissonance  [View article]
    I've said weeks ago that equity in BTU is toast, but that it is discussable how much value is in the unsecured bonds. At that time some people contradicted to that and holded that there is value in the share.

    Even today obviously some people buy BTU shares. There is trading of millions of shares and for each share sold there must be one share bought. If people don't "want to buy" why do they do it? Do You think they are forced to do so?

    I can't tell You why people are buying BTU shares and pay 7 dollars per share, but it happens. Obviously they think, that there will be a technical reaction, something like a dead cat bounce, but I'm not the one who can explain that phenomenon.

    Equity is toast, convertibles are toast and the unsecured senior bonds will get a hair cut of more than 50 per cent.
    Dec 15, 2015. 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: The Historic Example Of Value Destruction  [View article]
    Are You joking? Cliff's unsecured bonds are traded in a range from 15 per cent to 27 per cent (shortest duration). Obviously the market expects a very small recovery value for the unsecured senior notes.

    If the bonds are nearly worthless, it doesn't make any sense to talk about intrinsic value of the the shares. Equity is toast.
    Dec 15, 2015. 01:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iamgold - Rosebel Mine Is Facing A New Worker Strike After Laying Off 10% Of The Workforce  [View article]
    One should assume that a weaker EUR and the devaluation of Brazilian, Russian, Indian, South African and Chinese currency creates substantial demand for gold. The USD can't stay that strong against those currency, especially if the US export industry shall compete with Chinese and European/German industry.

    Anyway it is hard to predict the effect on the gold price. Personally I guess that the gold price will remain in a narrow range.

    IAG has to get rid of Letwin.
    Dec 11, 2015. 12:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment