Seeking Alpha

Jan H. Lessner

Jan H. Lessner
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Jan H. Lessner's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Canadian Solar's Focus On Fast-Growing Solar Markets Will Lead To Upside In The Long Run [View article]
    Talking or writing about growth sounds fine. If You are an environmentalist You're interested in growth of PV measured by MW. If You are an investor You should look at EPS.

    During the whole article nothing about EBIT or EPS. Does it help a shareholder if CSIQ growths is PV output, if margins are declining? Clearly: no!

    This article is neither written for investor nor for alpha seekers.
    Dec 15, 2014. 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Limited: Complete Fleet Status And Third Quarter Results Analysis [View article]
    Communication of managements to shareholders is in parts similar to how politicians communicate to citizens.

    Except for numbers and facts everything is covered by the disclaimer and there is a reason, why they seek safe harbor.

    So if management expects/hopes/wishes to be able to do something, this doesn't mean that they will do so whatever happens.

    I haven't expected that they maintain the dividend and I haven't overestimated on this management statement. Therefore I'm not disappointed. On the contrary, I liked to by shares Wednesday below $17.

    Anyway, I should have waited after the results of the OPEC meeting have been published. Share price probably will come down further.
    Nov 28, 2014. 03:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Limited: Complete Fleet Status And Third Quarter Results Analysis [View article]
    Management never promised a dividend. The statement concerning the ability to continue dividend payments has been misunderstood. In some case it seems like wishful thinking.

    JF suffers the same pain that all other shareholders suffer.

    The money spend for dividends is taken away. It still belongs to shareholders and is working for them in their company.

    I don't see the reason to complain about.

    The OPEC decision and the falling oil price seems to me a much bigger problem. If they hadn't cut the dividend, they would do it now.

    But I agree: SDRL shouldn't have increased the dividend last year and instead they should have begun a decreasing dividend scheme. Anyway, they've done the right step now.
    Nov 27, 2014. 04:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Limited: Complete Fleet Status And Third Quarter Results Analysis [View article]
    The exact statement by SDRL has been as quoted in the Article: "We expect to be able to support this dividend level for (the) foreseeable future."

    The key words are
    - expect
    - able to

    They are still able to pay the dividend but not willing to do so any more. It would have been a weak decision to just cut the dividend. If they had done so, there would have been myriads of analysts discussing further cuts and shareholders focussed on dividends would have disappointed anyway.

    I was not surprised by this move but really surprised by the markets reaction. thus i bought some shares at around 17 USD.
    Nov 27, 2014. 11:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    A really fine article. Thanks a lot for this. Anyway, even if this analyst has made some false assumptions and used wrong data, the remaining question is, whether CSIQ will be able to defend it's gross margin.

    In general they are a producer of a commodity. They have no or small moat against other producer like YGE, JKS, TSL, SUNE, FSLR, etc. CSIQ is neither the biggest producer (YGE?) nor the cheapest (JKS?). So, why should a customer pay a higher price to CSIQ instead of buying cheaper from a competitor?

    If this general thesis is right there gross margin will shrink.

    The author detected some valuable counter-effects against this shrink thesis, f. e. the Chinese tax issue, favorable gross margins in the current Japanese projects.

    Anyway SUNE has got recently some really big projects f. e. in Brazil. I think that CSIQ has no other choice than to scale up. They have to win those big projects although ASP are lower than in former projects. It is a red queen syndrom.
    Nov 25, 2014. 04:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cequence Energy: Deeply Undervalued Gas Play With 88% Upside [View article]
    A very fine piece of work. But according to the snapshot here on Seeking Alpha they have negative EPS. Thus they are loosing value instead of creating some.

    Could You shed some light on this?
    Nov 23, 2014. 04:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Canadian Solar Is A Star Performer [View article]
    Thanks a lot! But I would still assume, that the sold Canadian projects have been the most profitable one, because of favorable PPA or feed-in guarantees.

    Thus I'm still not convinced that CSIQ can remain it growth rate. On the contrary, I assume that we will see a decreasing EPS growth.
    Nov 20, 2014. 04:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Canadian Solar Is A Star Performer [View article]
    SUNE has spun off a YieldCo aka TERP. You'll find a lot of data and public information about this.
    Nov 20, 2014. 04:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Perspective From Russia Part 4 [View article]
    Rosneft's CEO Igor Setchin is a close fellow of Vlad Putin. Thus I assume that he has a qualified opinion about how russia will proceed with Ukraine.

    If the Russians plan a short term solution, there is no need to shift NADL from Bermuda to China or NADL assets to COSL. Then they can finalize the deal in May 2015.

    If they don't count on a short term solution, they will probably give NADL/SDRL a hint to take the necessary steps.
    Nov 20, 2014. 04:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: IAMGOLD's Q3 Earnings Show A Stronger Balance Sheet [View article]
    Thanks a lot! Would You or when would You expect an decreasing effect on the average AISC?
    Nov 19, 2014. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Perspective From Russia Part 4 [View article]
    I don't think that leasing out to a chinese company, which acts as a intermediate, would work.

    Instead NADL could

    - sell the rigs to a Chinese company which directly leases them out to Rosneft. This is from a liquidity point of view even better.

    - change it's domicile from Bermuda to Hongkong or Shanghai or directly to Russia. I think from a tax point of view shareholders would prefer Hongkong.

    - spin off the rigs for Rosneft into a company domiciled in Hongkong.
    Nov 19, 2014. 11:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: IAMGOLD's Q3 Earnings Show A Stronger Balance Sheet [View article]
    The stock is rising strongly without news. It seems to be a mixture of the rising gold price and being strongly oversold.

    Anyway question marks remain: why haven't we seen an average down effect of Westwood? Why do they assume even rising AISC?

    They fired some executives. That means an upfront payment for lowering headquarter costs. Idon't know whether this is good deal or not, but I'm quite sure that one of the best deals for this company would be to get rid of Letwin.
    Nov 18, 2014. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Canadian Solar Is A Star Performer [View article]
    They have sold off 300m projects in Canada which boosted their earnings. I'm not sure about this, but I would guess that the next quarters results will look much less strong until CSIQ again realizes gains from projects sales of that size.

    Further I'm not sure whether they are really a low cost producer. I think Jinko is the low cost leader.
    Nov 18, 2014. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: IAMGOLD's Q3 Earnings Show A Stronger Balance Sheet [View article]
    This a great company but it is run really poor. Niobec mine is profitable and generated positive cash flow and even earnings. Some time ago Mr. Letwin told the market, he wanted to sell it for $ 1 bn. Now it is half of that.

    I wouldn't mind. The price tag seems to be slighty above book value (in this case the book value isn't such a bad indicator), it fairly monetizes the discounted future cash flows for the rest of mine life and it improves the balance sheet. This deal isn't such bad. I would have expected a positive reaction of the market but instead the share price tanked further.

    Obviously the market is afraid of another Letwin-deal like the Trelawney-aquisition or this stupid deal with Toma gold. Letwins track record is such bad that it is obviously in the best interest of shareholders and bondholders to pay down debt eather by a early recall of the bond (if possible) or by an orderly bond buyback.

    That would reduce interest payment and thus costs of capital. Actually shareholder don't receive dividends but bondholders receive 6.25 per cent interest per year. If the buy back the bond and pay half of the saved interests as a dividend it would be a win-win for all.

    Unfortunately we have to assume that BOD's/Mr. Letwin's agenda isn't maximising shareholders value by shrinking the company. He probably intends to grow the company which means higher salary and bonus for him and his gang. To sell the profitable Niobec mine and to buy a unknown mine/project may or may not inrease value for the shareholders but in each case BOD profits personally from this.
    Nov 14, 2014. 03:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Drilling's Latest Results Show Company's Growth Potential And An Improved Ability To Weather Industry Downturn [View article]
    I like PACD's fleet the need for new contracts is really urgent. Unless they are not fully contracted they shouldn't even think about dividend or share buyback.

    To build such a modern and capable fleet they have invested such amounts of money that they had to highly leverage the balance sheet. There is no room for returning money to shareholders in this situation.
    Nov 13, 2014. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
815 Comments
426 Likes