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Jan H. Lessner

Jan H. Lessner
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  • Energy XXI: Potential 33% Upside After EPL Acquisition [View article]
    If your statement would have been, that yoy metrics decrease, the above mentioned figure would support this statement. Anyway You said something different.

    You said "Management has over-promised and under-delivered." So proof it by comparing guidance given by the management and reported figures instead of apples and oranges.
    Aug 14 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy XXI: Potential 33% Upside After EPL Acquisition [View article]
    Who defines, which is the end of the day? Today the market may plunge 20%, tomorrow it may rise even more. Wait at least for the first complete quarter of the combined company before judging the result.
    Aug 14 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy XXI: Potential 33% Upside After EPL Acquisition [View article]
    Can You substantiate, that management has over-promised and underdelivered by conretely comparing guidance given by the management and reported figures?
    Aug 14 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy XXI: Potential 33% Upside After EPL Acquisition [View article]
    You're assuming a causality between what management does or says and market movements. That's not the way stock exchanges are working.
    Aug 14 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Drilling: Fleet Analysis As Of August 2014, And Recent Second Quarter Results [View article]
    I'm a bit astonished how PACD classifies ORIG's UDW Semisubs in the cited slide. I haven't perceived Leiv Eirksen und Eirik Raude as low spec or standard spec respectively. One could discuss these classification from a technical point of view but with respect to the dayrates these both UDW Semisubs earn dayrates as high as PACD most modern high spe 7. gen. UDW drillships.

    Especially Eirik Raude has an advantage which is, that it is UK capable. Thus in UK waters (e. g. North Sea, Irish Sea, Falklands) there is limited competition.

    I like these UDW pure plays a lot and I currently hold shares of both of them. Anyway I think that there are some even better short term opportunities. HERO is one them. Sure, fleet contains some really old low spec JU, but I think that the market is so fokussed on this malus that market participants overlook the positives.
    Aug 11 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hercules' Recent Haircut: Fleet Analysis And Commentary [View article]
    Now I understand Your concerns better. If You want to see high replacement or even an increase in remaining rig years, an old fleet may be unattractive.

    Anyway HERO bought 20 rigs really cheap out of HAWK's bankruptcy:

    If they sell this stuff their fleet may shrink, but probably they will book gains and receive cash. OCF won't be affected severely since the old rigs don't generate high margins.

    If HERO sells all it's rigs and lift boats at book value and pays out the net result (after paying down debt) to the shareholders, we would receive more than current 4 USD per share.

    Buying cheap at current share price You don't need growth. Even at flat or modestly decreasing revenue the shares are undervalued. And for flat revenue they don't need to replace each old rig by a new one.
    Jun 26 05:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hercules' Recent Haircut: Fleet Analysis And Commentary [View article]
    Concerns about the average rig age seem to me way exaggerated. These oldest rigs and the cold stacked ones will be written off to or below scrap value.

    If HERO sells them for scraping, they may book gains, there will be a cash influx and the loss of revenue will be very limited. Take into account that the oldest, least equiped rigs earn the smallest margin.
    Jun 23 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bristow Group: Deep Offshore Drilling Is The Catalyst For A High-Flying Stock [View article]
    I'm very sorry, but INMO whether to explore and exploit maritime oilfields is an unspecific political discussion with no close relation to this stock. The fact is that even a left wing administration allows and supports drilling in the GoM. The Republicans won't forbid it.

    Anyway I would enjoy reading a well elaborated article about the pro's and con's and consequences of drilling or not.
    Jun 22 02:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Bet On Hercules Offshore [View article]
    Of course forgoing the contract for the Hercules Triumph has irritated the market. The headline is the loss of order backlog, but that is not the same as a loss of revenue. If they find a new contract there won't be any negative effect on the revenue.

    Let us look behind the headline: if HERO really thought they won't find a better contract, wouldn't they have tried to use the next 42 days to solve the problems with the Angolan beaurocracy?

    Either HERO sees better opportunities (good) or there are technical problems with the Triumph (bad). Since the Triumph is working succesfully I don't the a high probability for the bad scenario.
    Jun 21 06:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Bet On Hercules Offshore [View article]
    What are the facts?
    1. One contract will be terminated, that of hercules 267. The other rigs of this type earn dayrates of round about 120k USD. Thus the impact isn't really dramatic.
    2. HERO will voluntarily forgo a three-year contract award it previously received in Angola for the Hercules Triumph. Not nice, but the have more than a month to find another job for the Hercules Triumph.

    If they really needed these two contracts, they would have terminated them because of compliance reasons. One may dare to assume, that they eye better contracts for these rigs.

    Drilling in Angola seems to take place at high dayrates, but this location also causes high OpEx.

    IMHO the news aren't as bad as market's perception of it.
    Jun 20 08:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bristow Group: Deep Offshore Drilling Is The Catalyst For A High-Flying Stock [View article]
    Well, I like the offshore oil business and the offshore drilling contractors f. e. SDRL, PACD, ESC, etc. Thus thanks a lot for this article on a company related to this industry.

    Heli transport is a necessary part of the supply chain and will succeed and grow along with this industry.

    Anyway Your bear case seems to be very optimistic. 10% growth may be not easy to achieve in a bear case. Consider shrinking business in the North Sea due to depleting oil fields or a decreasing oil price below 100 USD. If BRS cannot grow the P/E multiple may be also to high.
    Jun 20 03:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diamond Offshore: Updated Earnings Estimate For Q214 [View article]
    There had been a lot of opportunities for DO to acquire rigs or companies, but they always missed or passed them and thus SDRL bought a majority in Sevan Drilling or for firesale prices the Songa Eclipse.

    I assume that neither George Economou nor Idan Ofer plan to give up control over ORIG or PACD respectively. Concerning Nobu Su and his stake in VTG he may be forced to sell because of the TMT bankruptcy. But again I could imagine, that SDRL is faster.

    Odfjell Drilling may be a target or the rigs segment of Saipem S. A. Anyway, there are those who talk about opportunistic acquisitions and those who execute
    Jun 11 06:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting Petroleum: Undervalued Compared To Rival Continental Resources - Has 35% Upside [View article]
    If I was bullish on the oil price, I would buy some WLL share (already holding several shares from the oil & gas sector).

    Anyway i fear that the market has run to far and that a bear market is coming soon, which means lower oil prices.

    If this happens WLL should decrease not as much as CLR but it would decrease.

    What do think is the break even level of boe-production for WLL?
    Jun 11 05:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy XXI: Positives Mounting For Gulf Oil Play [View article]
    At least EPL ramped up their shallow water activities since 2012 by acquisitions:

    Shallow water ultra-deep has been the project of Jim Bob Moffet, but I assume that EXXI acquired the WI in Davy Jones to get information about this approach. Shallow water ultra-deep drilling should enhance the potential of EXXI license blocks in GoM shallow water.

    I recommend to read this very helpful article:
    The story of EXXI is to revitalize mature shallow water oil fields by unconventional drilling, f. e. horizontal drilling. Beside this EXXi has also license blocks for exploration in deeper waters.

    Jun 10 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources Is The Next Multi-Bagger Getting Ready To Rock In The Lone Star State [View article]
    Lost some money following VD's articles on TID.TO. It was a small Investment, since it was a pennystock and I don't like pennystocks, but it was a total loss.

    Beside this ugly stain he has a great track record. Of course subscribers receive the information earlier and can buy earlier. They pay for early information and in this case could make double-digit gains before non-subscriber get the information.

    Anyway this happens in a fully transparent manner. Nothing to complain.

    If someone wants to buy today: Frankfurt Stock Exchange is open today and Lonestar Res. has been traded at about 0,255 EUR, which is close to 0,3467 USD or 0,3709 AUD. I've given it a chance at 0,255 EUR...
    Jun 9 09:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment