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Jan H. Lessner

Jan H. Lessner
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  • Pacific Drilling - Shares Trading At Liquidation Values [View article]
    I don't think that they have substantial expenses in EUR.
    Jul 2, 2015. 03:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Drilling - Shares Trading At Liquidation Values [View article]
    Size doesn't matter in this business. Big boys have contracted providers with small market capitalization, small fleets, etc. and there is no reason why they should change it.

    In case of financial distress of a contractor every creditor would agree and ask for honoring current contracts. That from where they get money from. May be it is even an advantage for the customer, if the contractor cannot fulfill the contract. Than they get out of the contract early without any payments.

    Especially PACD seems to be a preferred contractor for CVX.
    Jul 1, 2015. 06:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Drilling - Shares Trading At Liquidation Values [View article]
    Even easier to buy it from the banks.

    Of course Quantum should seek to get around $600 million per rig, anyway I don't see any buyer who should be willing to pay that price. Nearly all competitors have free capacity or will have it at the end of the year. It doesn't make sense to buy more rigs without contract.

    Whether they like it or not, current shareholders including Quantum will have to navigate through this part of the cycle and that includes to insert fresh money.
    Jun 30, 2015. 01:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Drilling - Shares Trading At Liquidation Values [View article]
    That doesn't make sense: A buyer shall pay 6 USD per share for a company which otherwise would have to file bankruptcy. What kind of buyer should do so? He would better buy the bonds and then participate in the debt-to-equity-swap.

    Further, buying a the company could trigger change of control clauses. I don't know whether the credit agreements contain such clauses, but I think this is highly probable.

    Usually lenders agree to a waiver in case of a breach of covenant and i don't see a reason why they shouldn't do so in case of PACD.
    Jun 30, 2015. 10:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Panic For Pacific Drilling? [View article]
    If one assumes that there won't be any new contracts at least until end of 2016 PACD may not have reached the bottom.

    I would assume that sooner or later the upstream oil companies come back with contracts. Dayrates will be low, probably at breakeven level (opex plus interests). If that's the case, PACD, ORIG, other will rise substantially.
    Jun 29, 2015. 12:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hercules Offshore Files A Restructuring Agreement To Be Implemented Voluntary Under Chapter 11 [View article]
    >>There will be up to 70 newbuilds entering the market during the next few years<<

    Where have You got this figure from? Is it a mere projection and including f. e. the SETE Brazil rigs? Is it about just any kind of rig or about dual UDW drillships? What does next few years mean?
    Jun 22, 2015. 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling Wait A Minute... 6 Months Later Is It Still A Whopping Deal? [View article]
    The situation of AWLCF is not that bad. Many shareholders have sold off because major shareholder and insider A. Wilhelmson has sold more share and because of the reduced dividend.

    Anyway AWLCF has a stable balance sheet and even in a worst case scenario they can pay down the debt and go into hibernation mode which means they don't have to sell assets ore shares at firesale prices.

    Further the low debt and thus low interest payments give them ample room to underbid competitors.
    Jun 22, 2015. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hercules Offshore Files A Restructuring Agreement To Be Implemented Voluntary Under Chapter 11 [View article]
    I think it is pretty clear, that the creditors don't spend money to bailout shareholders favourably.

    The noteholders have been in a much better position than shareholders and there is absolutely no reason for them, to take less so that shareholders gain more than absolutely necessary. Ok, they may leave some value for shareholders to avoid some lawsuits, but that's some pennies.

    Why should the noteholders share the cake, which is not even enough for them, with the sahreholders?
    Jun 22, 2015. 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hercules Offshore Files A Restructuring Agreement To Be Implemented Voluntary Under Chapter 11 [View article]
    Usually such lawsuits are without merit. Chapter 11 gives the creditors a very strong position.

    I think a 3.1% share of the company also means a similar share of current equity value.
    Jun 18, 2015. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hercules Offshore Files A Restructuring Agreement To Be Implemented Voluntary Under Chapter 11 [View article]
    There are no reasons for the noteholders to leave more than something symbolic for the current shareholders. They wouldn't risk the face value of their notes and pour fresh money to buy out current shareholders.

    Thus I would assume, that the share price of the current shares will decrease to a low single digit cent number.
    Jun 18, 2015. 08:49 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hercules Offshore reaches restructuring deal with creditors [View news story]
    We are not just talking about a highly dilutive rights issue but about a prepackaged reorganization plan or a chapter 11 bankruptcy filing. Everyone should be clear that the noteholders don't expect the shareholders to like or even to accept it and thus force them to do so.

    Thus I assume that the $ 0.002 is very close to what will be left for current shareholders.
    Jun 18, 2015. 06:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil - Update And Comments On Q1 Results [View article]
    If it is such a well known company to You, there must have been a reason why You preferred owning PTAXF share instead of those of PetroNova. Now PTAXF management tells You that PetroNova was grossly untervalued and PTAXF pays the gap by diluting PTA shareholders. Congratulation!
    Jun 18, 2015. 05:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil - Update And Comments On Q1 Results [View article]
    PTA shareholders apparently are may be used to dilution so that there are no complaints against this further dilution.

    Based on PTA's price on June 12, 2015 @11.5 CAD the exchange ratio reflects a value of 9.8 CAD per PetroNova share which is approximately a 45-per-cent premium over PetroNova's 10-day volume-weighted average trading price.

    If the PTA share were so much undervalued as most of the seeking alpha cheerleaders think, they should dilute shareholders to buy out shareholders of an unknown risky player.
    Jun 17, 2015. 05:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil - Update And Comments On Q1 Results [View article]
    Very good comment, bankstocks!
    Jun 5, 2015. 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig UDW: Offering Of 28,571,428 Shares At A Price Of $7.00 Per Share. [View article]
    I fully agree to this.

    Anyway curious George and DRYS together still control more than 50 per cent. I think that even 30 to 40 per cent would be enough to effectively controll a company and activist shareholders only need much lower proportions.

    Thus to get rid of curious George and his influence I would strongly appreciate it if ORIG would forgave the other $80 M outstanding loan to DRYS and receives ORIG share at a pps of $9 instead.

    ORIG could use some more fresh cash from the secondary to buy back more share from DRYS at this price. That would be very fine!

    Although all shareholders of ORIG would like them to buy back own shares at the cheapest in a realistic world ORIG has to pay some upside to make the Economou gang disappear.

    Thus in my view $9 would be cheap!
    Jun 5, 2015. 10:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
962 Comments
597 Likes