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Jan H. Lessner

Jan H. Lessner
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  • Petroamerica Oil: The Strong Buy Rating Has Become Even Stronger [View article]
    Acquisition of a competitor or assets from a competitor is another risk. PTA.TO may be undervalued or not, but nobody beside management can estimate whether they overpay or not, if they go on a shopping tour.

    The only ones who profit from an acquisition will be the management via extra bonus or higher salaries.

    If one thinks that PTA.TO is the most undervalued oil company of the world, no acquisition makes more sense than a buyback of own shares. If one thinks there are more undervalued competitors, one should sell PTA.TO and pay that one instead.
    Feb 27, 2015. 04:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hercules Offshore cut to Sell from Buy at Deutsche Bank, sets $0 target [View news story]
    It all depends on how long the oil price stays or falls below approximately USD 75. The analysts don't predict future oil prices. They just account the value of a company under current or foreseeable parameters.

    If the oil price doesn't recover in 2016 or before I would assume bankcruptcy for HERO or some one-digit pennies paid by an private equity investor.
    Feb 27, 2015. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: The Strong Buy Rating Has Become Even Stronger [View article]
    Cash exceeding the debt, doesn't mean that there is a positive cash flow. A positive cash flow requires that revenue is higher than the cash outflow.
    Feb 27, 2015. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: The Strong Buy Rating Has Become Even Stronger [View article]
    Neither the article nor the latest press release say anything about all-in sustaining costs or just production costs vs. interest expenses, g&a expenses, CapEx etc.
    Feb 27, 2015. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: The Strong Buy Rating Has Become Even Stronger [View article]
    I have to inform You, that I'm NOT convinced by Your rear view mirror. Please go back and read them carefully before blaming others.

    The relevant question is expressed in my comments and this question is, how they will refinance the loan, e. g. whether they will again pay high interests or not.

    I kindly request you not to post inaccurate remarks, when you are not fully aware of what I've written. Please don't make fragmentary and incomplete references. Instead of such blaming I assume that most of the readers would be much more interested in Your view on PTA.V future refinancing costs and what You think about their refinancing.

    Production of PTA is small and it is declining. They depend again on bringing new production online. I think You are aware of this.
    Feb 26, 2015. 03:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy XXI: High Cost, High Leverage, Weak Energy Prices, Good Short? [View article]
    It is a common misperception that offshore is generally more expensive than onshore fracking.
    Feb 25, 2015. 02:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Should Stay The Course With Melco Crown [View article]
    An interesting stock. I would still prefer Cambodia's Nagacorp, but i will follow MPEL more closely.
    Feb 24, 2015. 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: The Strong Buy Rating Has Become Even Stronger [View article]
    You never have seen private placement diluting the other shareholders at the worst point of time?

    Do You really trust the management that they act in the interest of all shareholders equally?

    Beside this there is probably a reason why they have to pay double-digit interests although there is a low debt load. If there weren't such a reason they could have used their cash to pay down debt instead of paying high interests.

    If this management would really act in the best interest of all shareholder, they would sell the assets at prices named by value digger to buyers like those who bought those comparable assets named by value digger. Then they could pay down the debt an return the rest to sell sahreholders. That would mean quick returns.

    Instead they hold those assets - that is what isn't making a lot of sense...
    Feb 23, 2015. 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: The Strong Buy Rating Has Become Even Stronger [View article]
    What is the reason behind this strategy? If You expect lower oil prices, why have You bought PTAXF?

    Of course the oil price won't stay such low forever. I think there will be a rising oil price, but I'm not sure whether in 2016 or later. But I don't assume to see WTI above 75 USD/bbl in 2015. So why not save the money and/or invest anywhere else during late 2015?
    Feb 23, 2015. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: The Strong Buy Rating Has Become Even Stronger [View article]
    As far as I read the news most experts expect the North American oil production to rise in 2015. If there is an agreement with Iran on their nuclear program in April 2015, a lot of Iranian production will add to the surplus.

    These are only to example of rising production and there are a lot of more. The high CapEx of the last 3-4 years will bear their fruits (additional production) in 2015.
    Feb 23, 2015. 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: The Strong Buy Rating Has Become Even Stronger [View article]
    Very intelligent comment. I wouldn't buy the stock, but I would be happy if the would offer me/publically senior bonds with a double-digit YTM.

    I assume that this won't happen. They probably will make a private placement of a high yielding loan with a strong position for the lenders. Retail investors buying the shares may then ask themselves who is really profiting from this enterprise.
    Feb 22, 2015. 06:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: The Strong Buy Rating Has Become Even Stronger [View article]
    Since You seem to be convinced by the bull case for PTA, I would be very interested to get to know more about Your investment strategy on this stock.

    Will You average down, whatever happens if only the share price hits the limit?

    What is Your personal view or what are Your expectations for the company (not the share price)? Do You think that
    - refinancing will happen at lower interest rates
    - write-offs will be avoided
    - dilution will be avoided
    - production will be increased without rising average production costs?
    Feb 22, 2015. 06:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: The Strong Buy Rating Has Become Even Stronger [View article]
    But not every E&P needs a higher oil price to avoid losses. There are E&P's, which can still generate positive earnings.

    PTA may rise again, but to make this happen it doesn't needs correcting a market inefficience or a fair valuation, but it needs the oil price to rise.

    You still take into account just cash costs instead of AISC. Substracting CapEx will turn it to negative FCF, right?
    Feb 20, 2015. 05:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: The Strong Buy Rating Has Become Even Stronger [View article]
    A lot of research and interesting facts. Anyway One should carefully read the author's conclusion.

    The article doesn't say anything about expected earnings, discounted cash flows and forward PE ratio. The thesis of undervaluation is completely based on a comparison of prices payed for more or less comparable assets and companies.

    The main question should be, which oil price is required so that PTA not only survives but generates earnings. Correct me if i'm wrong, but at current levels PTA is cash flow negative and will generate losses. Without CapEx production will decline further and the OCF isn't able to cover the required CapEx. All in sustaining costs (AISC) are higher than the current oil price.

    Thus PTA is a bet on a rising oil price.
    Feb 20, 2015. 12:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: The Strong Buy Rating Has Become Even Stronger [View article]
    Thus You say, that management doesn't care about shareholder value and that growing reserves and production ist the ultimate goal instead of shareholder value.
    Feb 20, 2015. 12:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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