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Jan H. Lessner

Jan H. Lessner
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  • Vantage Drilling: Why The Shorts In This $1 Stock Bargain Are Likely To Get Burned [View article]
    Just stop wrong statements concerning my account "You're short VTG" an concerning me as a person.

    Before You tell something about my accent, inform the board what do You want to tell us with "darmausgang"...

    Before You ask others to "return the courtesy", clean up Your insulting comments.

    You're fully rights: arguments and facts don't change Your opinion. But don't forget, that this is a public comment section. I don't care, whether or how You lose money. But of course I will continue to inform readers about my view on some stocks.
    Apr 11 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vantage Drilling: Why The Shorts In This $1 Stock Bargain Are Likely To Get Burned [View article]
    Your allegations are wrong again. I'm not interested in shorting VTG and I'm not short. Just stop it.
    Apr 10 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco Plc: Is A 6% Yield Enough To Overcome The Risks Involved In Holding The Shares? [View article]
    A very well elaborated article, thanks a lot!

    I think ESV has had bad luck with the bankruptcy of OGX. The effect on top and bottom line will not last, but investors looking at current metrics instead of fortward or longer averages won't like that.
    Apr 10 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vantage Drilling: Why The Shorts In This $1 Stock Bargain Are Likely To Get Burned [View article]
    Again: Nobu Su doesn't need 50,01% of the share to control the board. Usually a large part of the free float doesn't vote at the generelly assembly. That is common knowledge. Thus 30% of all share can be very close to 50% or more among the actually exercised voting rights.

    Further/3, Nobu Su don't need to buy 20% to get a majority. They establish a pool with Paul and some others ore just with FMR LLC.

    You may hope and pray that this doesn't materialize, but it is not unlikely. Mr Market prices the probabilities of these scenarios and the result is the current share price - neither undervalued nor overvalued. Mr. Market is fully right. Some may argue that they are smarter than Mr. Market and that these scenarios won't materialize. Ok, if this matter is resolved in favor of VTG and the other sahreholders, the share price will go up. Anyway one should be clear, that VTG is more a bet on the legal battle with Nobu Su than on the outlook of the earnings.
    Apr 10 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vantage Drilling: Why The Shorts In This $1 Stock Bargain Are Likely To Get Burned [View article]
    If You would sell at 2.00 USD why should someone else pay this price? If You don't want to buy more of this stuff at current prices, why should others do so?

    I'm quite sure, if Nobu Su would offer his stake to SDRL, ORIG, PACD, ESV, RIG, etc. at price about 2.00 USD, they wouldn't hesitate an buy. But they don't want VTG as long as they get Nobu Su as a co-owner.

    May be there are some hedge funds already eyeing VTG, but I would assume that they rather buy the VTG bonds than equity...
    Apr 10 12:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Drilling's Modern Fleet And Newbuilds To Contribute To Outperformance [View article]
    1.
    I'm not sure whether this quote "In fact, Pacific Drilling's fleet is the only one among all of its peers to consist entirely of sixth- and seventh-generation ultra-deepwater rigs" is still true, if You include Sevan Drilling ASA.

    Sevan Drilling has a fleet of 3 UDW Semisubmersibles + 1 under construction and the oldest one, the Sevan Driller has as building year 2009.

    Maybe Sevan Drilling is excluded, because SDRL holds 50,11% of the Sevan Drilling share or because the cylindrical design is somehow special.

    2.
    I'm astonished not to hear more about PACD technical specialty, which may differentiate PACD from peers aditionally to fleet age. The "dual gradient drilling"-technology should give PACD the chance to win some contracts and higher dayrates. Anyway this assumption hasn't been materialized yet.

    3.
    I like the fleet and metrics of ORIG and VTG, but I don't like their major shareholders and the risk of conflict of interests at these companies. PACD looks very more safe in this respect.

    4.
    I'm not limited to own shares of just one single Offshore Drilling Contractor, but I would like to see in the article more comparisons. Especially Sevan Drilling ASa seems to be quite cheap compared to PACD. Anyway, as soon as Mr Market concerns about a supply glut of rigs are gone again, all these shares will see a nice rallye.
    Apr 10 06:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vantage Drilling: Why The Shorts In This $1 Stock Bargain Are Likely To Get Burned [View article]
    @hoyt15: It has been several times explained to You how a large shareholder, who controlls the board, can divert cash from the company in his pockets or the pockets of affiliates. That is of course not paying a dividend, which per definitionem gives equal per share.

    That is not theory or unfounded fear, but really happens. Again: do You own research an read how George Economou has used his control of the board of DRYS and ORIG. Read about the prepackaged bankruptcy at Tuscany International Drilling and how shareholders equity has been destroyed and about the role of the major shareholder Walter Dawson in this case. Read how Aubrey McClendon used his position at CHK. And go through all the other well known cases of conflicts of interests. And then come back and tell us, that You wouldn't care, if Nobu Su would gain control over the board of VTG again...
    Apr 10 02:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vantage Drilling: Buy A Promising Future At A Discount [View article]
    @hoyt15: You are not the judge, whether an argument is logic or not. You haven't any authority to determine, whether somenone has a certain ability or not. Stop Your allegations against me as a person.

    I could as well as You state, that You're posting mere opnions instead of facts, that Your comments are determined by Your wishful thinking of rising share price, etc. and repeat that stuff. I don't like such discussions and I wouldnit participate in such wrestling. So stop it.
    Apr 9 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vantage Drilling: Buy A Promising Future At A Discount [View article]
    Hoyt15, I'm not interested in a further personal dialog with You. I don't like Your aggressive style of conversation, anyway If You want to challenge my arguments please do so by counter-arguments and or facts.

    Everyone may do his own research on VTG and Nobu Su and who considers to buy VTG may also research of what George Economou, Aubrey McClendon and several others have done. Then one may consider why Nobu Su shouldn't act similarly. The past indicates that he may not have acted in the best interest of VTG, when he has been in the driver seat.
    Apr 9 04:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Should You Pay For SALT? The Net Asset Value Of Scorpio Bulkers Plus The Premium [View article]
    I don't worry about management skills and experience but rather about management payment and conflict of interests.

    An example for this problem is George Economou and Dryships. The shipping industry is known for further examples, where listed companies with a majority shareholder contract companies, which belong to the majority shareholder or affiliates, for expensive service contracts.
    Apr 9 04:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vantage Drilling: Buy A Promising Future At A Discount [View article]
    Hoyt15 liked to start a discussion on the danger "2) that by having a 34% interest he effectively "controls" the company".

    I think it is well known, that activist shareholders like Carl Icahn or David Einhorn and their investment companies often effectively control companies with even smaller stakes. This is because usually a huge percentage of retail shareholders don't appear at the general assembly.

    Further Nobu Su likely tries to team up with some other large shareholders. The price for their voting rights could be the participation in detoured cash flows.

    Hoyt15 asked me in an aggressive manner to explain, how Nobu Su could detour substantial gains in his pockets and asks what would the harmful effect, if Nobu Su controls the company.

    I'm a little bit astonished that someone, who suspects others of not understanding what the law suit is about, asks such a question. Obviously the management of VTG thinks that the largest shareholder forced the company in disadvantageous contracts, when he controlled the board. Nobu Su may not have invented the tricks, but everyone who has heard about "curious" George Economou, Aubrey McClendon, etc. knows what could be copied by Nobu Su. The ultimate measure could be a prepackaged bankruptcy, but before that, Nobu Su could dilute shareholders by rights issues via private placements and he could delist the company.

    So may be I'm wrong, but as soon as we hear, that Nobu Su controls the board again, the share price will fall precipitously.
    Apr 8 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corruption Scandal Creates A Buying Opportunity For CNOOC [View article]
    The article states: "As a result, Western oil companies incur the exploratory costs and production costs while CNOOC automatically gets half of any successful project. Basically, the company gets free exploration from the best oil engineers in the world and reduced exploration costs significantly improve margins."

    This is not a logical conclusion. Usually all holder of working interests share the costs, which are invoiced by operator. If companies farm in and grant some exploration for free, then usually the farming out company has had paid for all the license cost an 2D seismic survey.

    So please proof Your statement that CNOOC gets half of any successful project. This is neither plausible nor does is derives from what You have stated.
    Apr 7 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vantage Drilling: Buy A Promising Future At A Discount [View article]
    As mentioned in the comments, but unfortunately not in the article, the legal battle with Mr. Nobu Su shouldn't be underestimated.

    If he again gains controll of the company, he will detour all substantial gains into his pockets or the pockets of affiliates.

    Taking this risk into account VTG is way overvalued.
    Apr 7 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hercules Offshore: Undervalued Titan In The Gulf [View article]
    What exactly is Your argument?

    You're call others "novice investors", "pusher", ignorant towards Your statements, etc. That's mere argumentum ad hominem. Don't care, what other may like or dislike to hear, but just give the reason for Your assumptions, please.

    Please tell us more about Your projections mentioned. What exactly do You project and on what assumptions are your projections based on?
    Apr 2 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Buy Seadrill [View article]
    Bears argue that the oil price will decrease and thus the CapEx of the oil exploration & production companies. But If this thesis would be the perception of Mr. Market - why don't we see this in the share prices of the exploration & production companies?

    They should be hit harder since there production is not or not as good hedged than the revenues of the drillers are hedged by the order backlog.
    Mar 11 07:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
701 Comments
315 Likes