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Jan H. Lessner

Jan H. Lessner
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  • Epsilon Energy: The Latest Developments Support Its Multibagger Potential [View article]
    Again, valuing Epsilon based on the latest upstream and midstream deals is interesting, but that is just one method. If it is so undervalued why hasn't the management picked up those opportunities and sold to the buyers of these deals? And if these buyers pay such prices, why haven't they knocked at Epsilon's doors?

    So, why not valuing it by its own guidance of 2015 earnings and earnings growth ratio?
    Jan 26, 2015. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cequence Energy: Deeply Undervalued Gas Play With 88% Upside [View article]
    What do You think about Cequence's financial stability. Can they weather the current storm e. g. will the depend on waivers from creditors because of breach of covenants?
    Jan 23, 2015. 12:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Epsilon Energy: The Latest Developments Support Its Multibagger Potential [View article]
    What is the NAV of this company based not on prices payd for comparable assetsbut on discounted cash flows?

    I think it would be helpful not only to look at what others pay for other assets, but on the cash flows at current NG prices, current costs, current contracts, etc.
    Jan 15, 2015. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Petroamerica Oil - A Survivor In The Junior E&P Space [View article]
    Before calling this stock undervalued one should answer one simple question:

    What is the Net Asset Value based on the current oil price, Q1/2015 production and a discount rate of e. g. 10%.

    They paying their lenders a coupon of 11.5%. Thus their loan is high yield. this indicates much about the default risk. If even the lenders doubt to get back their money, I don't see why the shareholders could hope for returns.
    Jan 15, 2015. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Petroamerica Refreshes Capex And Production Targets [View article]
    PTA may be tremendously undervalued relative to other companies and even those with similar business.

    Anyway what do You derive from this? PTA share price could rise or the share prices of the others could decrease. So being relatively undervalued doesn't mean that the share price will rise.

    Thus I fully agree with Paulo that all will depend on the oil price. The management should focus on surviving. The reserves are fine in case of a higher oil price environment, thus it doesn't make sense to increase reserves. Operating cash flow may be positive at 60 USD/bbl, but currently we are substantially lower than that and OCF positive doesn't mean break even on an all-in sustainable cost basis. Thus investments in increasing production doesn't make sense either.

    Share buybacks may sound nice but realistically shareholder should be really happy if PTA can avoid dilution by rights issues at depressed prices or issuing high yielding junk bonds.

    It is neither the time to be greedy nor the time to be fearful. Patience and a cash reserve for averaging down in case of positive catalysts or unfounded share price crashs are required.
    Jan 15, 2015. 09:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig UDW: Fleet Analysis As Of Jan. 8 After ENI New Contract Agreement. [View article]
    Thanks from me too.

    As I said sometimes before: There are a lot of reasons not to like George Economou as a major shareholder. Anyway there are even worse owners like Nobu Su from VTG and currently even the intimate love between the market and JF cooled down a little.

    Shure, curious George finds ways to detour earning potential from ORIG into his own pockets. But despite of this ORIGS earnings are outstanding and since they established a dividend the earnings are proportionately distributed to the shareholders.

    The OCF is very fine and surely there won't be any newbuild orders. Thus CapEx is shrinking faster thand backlog, which offer enough room to reduce debt.
    Jan 13, 2015. 06:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Limited: Complete Fleet Status As Of December 9 And Recent Downgrade [View article]
    Bulldog67, with all due respect: If You had read the comment, You would easily have been able to detect, that "clueless" is related to the comment gene wiley and not the author of the article...
    Jan 5, 2015. 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Limited: Complete Fleet Status As Of December 9 And Recent Downgrade [View article]
    Sorry, You are clueless about what You're talking...

    As seller SDRL has no weak hand against SDLP. That is obviously not the case, which You could easily know, if You hadn't ignored the last deal between them.

    As seller against Rosneft SDRL has no weak hands since Rosneft isn't able to find any other seller for such HE Rigs. that is, because all other sellers are hindered by the sanctions from selling.

    Selling the stake in the Mexican JV is a no brainer, since these units have long term contracts. You are ignoring facts.

    Cancelling or deferring newbuilds - on the contrary: The wharfs are in a weak position against SDRL.

    Dec 22, 2014. 02:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Limited: Complete Fleet Status As Of December 9 And Recent Downgrade [View article]
    SDRL still has some options to solve the debt problem.

    1. More dropdowns to SDLP. -> 2B
    2. Transferring NADL from Bermuda to Hongkong to rescue and scaling up the Rosneft-deal and selling the stake in NADL. -> 5B
    3. Selling the stake in the Mexican joint venture -> 1B
    4. Deferring or canceling some of the newbuild orders. -> 1B
    Dec 22, 2014. 11:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar: Well Positioned For The Future [View article]
    Yes, JASO is rewarding it's shareholders. CSIQ isn't.

    If they are so undervalued, why don't we see insiders buying share or a share buyback by the company?
    Dec 22, 2014. 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar: Well Positioned For The Future [View article]
    This is another article cheering the growth of the solar industry and energy generation by PV. CSIQ's production capacity and shipments grew fantastically. That's fine, but it only helps the top line.

    The author commits several times to be shocked, surprised, etc. Perhaps better look at bottom line and the probability of a shrinking margin.

    PV in India may be a great story, but a poor country like India never will guarantee feed in tariffs like Canada, US an Germany in former times. Taxpayers support for PV in the western countries won't come back and won't be repeated by India or China.

    The author gets enthusiastic looking at CSIQs success to decrease costs. Maybe look what the competitors have achieved too. CSIQ isn't the cost leader. Cost leader is Jinko Solar.

    Further the author warmly welcomes vertically integration. What is it good for? For what reason is it better to produce polysilicium than to buy it from specialized producers of this stuff?
    Dec 22, 2014. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar's Focus On Fast-Growing Solar Markets Will Lead To Upside In The Long Run [View article]
    Talking or writing about growth sounds fine. If You are an environmentalist You're interested in growth of PV measured by MW. If You are an investor You should look at EPS.

    During the whole article nothing about EBIT or EPS. Does it help a shareholder if CSIQ growths is PV output, if margins are declining? Clearly: no!

    This article is neither written for investor nor for alpha seekers.
    Dec 15, 2014. 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Limited: Complete Fleet Status And Third Quarter Results Analysis [View article]
    Communication of managements to shareholders is in parts similar to how politicians communicate to citizens.

    Except for numbers and facts everything is covered by the disclaimer and there is a reason, why they seek safe harbor.

    So if management expects/hopes/wishes to be able to do something, this doesn't mean that they will do so whatever happens.

    I haven't expected that they maintain the dividend and I haven't overestimated on this management statement. Therefore I'm not disappointed. On the contrary, I liked to by shares Wednesday below $17.

    Anyway, I should have waited after the results of the OPEC meeting have been published. Share price probably will come down further.
    Nov 28, 2014. 03:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Limited: Complete Fleet Status And Third Quarter Results Analysis [View article]
    Management never promised a dividend. The statement concerning the ability to continue dividend payments has been misunderstood. In some case it seems like wishful thinking.

    JF suffers the same pain that all other shareholders suffer.

    The money spend for dividends is taken away. It still belongs to shareholders and is working for them in their company.

    I don't see the reason to complain about.

    The OPEC decision and the falling oil price seems to me a much bigger problem. If they hadn't cut the dividend, they would do it now.

    But I agree: SDRL shouldn't have increased the dividend last year and instead they should have begun a decreasing dividend scheme. Anyway, they've done the right step now.
    Nov 27, 2014. 04:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Limited: Complete Fleet Status And Third Quarter Results Analysis [View article]
    The exact statement by SDRL has been as quoted in the Article: "We expect to be able to support this dividend level for (the) foreseeable future."

    The key words are
    - expect
    - able to

    They are still able to pay the dividend but not willing to do so any more. It would have been a weak decision to just cut the dividend. If they had done so, there would have been myriads of analysts discussing further cuts and shareholders focussed on dividends would have disappointed anyway.

    I was not surprised by this move but really surprised by the markets reaction. thus i bought some shares at around 17 USD.
    Nov 27, 2014. 11:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment