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Jan H. Lessner

Jan H. Lessner
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  • Vantage Drilling Announced It Has Terminated The Cobalt Explorer Contract [View article]
    Please provide some examples for the statement, that >current market dayrates in most cases barely cover cash costs for the assets (at least for modern rigs)<

    Your own statement was, that there is no tendering activity. Thus according to Your own opinion there is no current market. If so you cannot say something about current market dayrates.

    Aug 17, 2015. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig UDW - Commentary On Q2 Results And Fleet Analysis [View article]
    That's what Douglas-Westwood have said:
    >However, based on Douglas-Westwood’s offshore drilling forecast, there are still plenty of wells to be drilled if the 2015 oil prices average between $50-70 a barrel. Total wells drilled could be expected to increase by 17 percent by 2020 with deepwater wells growing at 32 percent, despite the current price environment.<

    See more at: http://bit.ly/1HDz5vU
    Aug 11, 2015. 06:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig UDW - Commentary On Q2 Results And Fleet Analysis [View article]
    Well, read the publicly provided data of all-in costs per barrel oil from ultra-deepwater resources. Since You claim ultimate understanding of this industry You should already know these figures.

    Despite this upstream companies don't make decisions based on current oil prices. Ultra-deepwater projects have lead times of several years.

    Budgets and tenders disappeared within one year and there is no reason to assume that they won't can come back within a year.
    Aug 11, 2015. 04:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig UDW - Commentary On Q2 Results And Fleet Analysis [View article]
    Of course, Ultima is the one who ultimately understands the business. Curiously even George Economou isn't as smart as Ultima, since he bought ORIG shares at $7 and Mr. Market isn't as smart as the ultimate Ultima, since he is willing to pay more than $3 for shares of company which allegedly will have to restructure it's debt, which implies an equity value of slightly above zero.

    Nobody is willing to buy Ultima's ultimate wisdom and he seems to try compensating this by repeating his wisdom louder, more frequent and more aggressive.

    Ultima, the daytrader, makes predictions on the tendering for ultra-deepwater units in 2016 - good joke.
    Aug 11, 2015. 03:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig UDW - Commentary On Q2 Results And Fleet Analysis [View article]
    Hasn't the first step of the debt conversion just been $40 million instead of the $80 Million stated in the article?

    Anyway, this first debt conversion has been bad market timing, whilst the share offering at $7 has been critizised, but turned out to be really great market timing from current Point of view.

    The second step of the debt conversion could have been timed even better, but hasn't been such bad.

    Anyway, shareholders nightmare and enemy No. 1 George Economou seems to be not that advantaged as some People think. He participated in the share offering and thus bought a significant number of Shares at $7.

    Every ordinary shareholder can out-economou him now buying at less than half of the price he paid.

    Sure, DRYS has pocketed a good deal selling one third at $9 and two third at $4,5. But taking into consideration the share offering at $7, ther hasn't been much damage for the shareholders. The elephant on the stage is, that DRYS/curious George don't controll more than 50% any more and DRYS cannot consolidate the ORIG results any more.
    Aug 10, 2015. 10:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig - A Solid Contrarian Investment With Outstanding Share Price Appreciation Potential [View article]
    subject of the article is neither VTG nor HERO nor PGN. The elephant on the stage is the cash flow. ORIG has raised cash by a rights issue, which from the current market perspective has been timed very, very well. Beside this ORIG is and will be cash flow positive for several quarters.

    ORIG could afford to buy back bonds, which has by it's very nature the effect of de-leveraging. Buying back sub par would mean gains - of course the lower the price the higher the gains for ORIG.

    Expecting lower bond prices would mean the opportunity for higher gains on buying back bonds.
    Aug 4, 2015. 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig - A Solid Contrarian Investment With Outstanding Share Price Appreciation Potential [View article]
    You've already lost Your bet.
    Aug 4, 2015. 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig - A Solid Contrarian Investment With Outstanding Share Price Appreciation Potential [View article]
    ORIG has raised money for possible acquisitions. It seems as if they haven't aimed at rigs or competitors but their own stock and possibly bonds. That makes sense since if You don't assume that the ultra-deepwater oil upstream business is dead or at least dying, their own stock is one of the best opportunities compared to competitors and assets.
    Aug 4, 2015. 07:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Prices Will Rebound [View article]
    Very good article! Thanks a lot for that. Anyway I'm not as optimistic. Some desperate producers are trying to compensate lower prices by more output.

    There has to be much more blood in the streets.
    Jul 27, 2015. 05:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dissecting Pacific Drilling's Near-Term Strategy [View article]
    I think that PACD won't file bankcruptcy. Before this would happen, the major shareholder would recapitalize it by a secondary rights issue. That would hurt current shareholders because of hefty dilution, but it would prolonge their ability to stay for at least two or more years additionally.
    Jul 27, 2015. 02:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling Wait A Minute... 6 Months Later Is It Still A Whopping Deal? [View article]
    I would like Awilco Drilling to buy back debt sub par. This would immediately boost EPS since the debt is part of the balance sheet at par.

    As pointed out by fellow commentators and in several articles: There will be new contracts, but dayrates will be low. That's not as bad for Awilco Drilling than for competitors since Awilco Drilling has a very low break even level and thus can offer cheaper dayrates.

    OpEx is below 100k and from a cash flow perspective even a 125k dayrate would add value.
    Jul 27, 2015. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling Wait A Minute... 6 Months Later Is It Still A Whopping Deal? [View article]
    That's right - the pay this high dividend because it is there and it doesn't make sense to invest the cash into new rigs. Thus they pay back the cash to the shareholders. Nothing to complain about that.

    Is the dividend yield ridiculously high or the share price ridiculously low?

    If they are liquidating the company in advance buy fulfilling the current contracts which means generating cash from the remaining order backlog and then scrapping the rigs and pay out the proceeds to shareholders after paying down the debt, this would presumably be very profitable for shareholders at current price levels...
    Jul 27, 2015. 06:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Seadrill Planning To Acquire Sevan Drilling? Why This Could Make Sense [View article]
    That's an interesting and valuable article. Anyway I would like to know what the author derives from this. Is it good or bad for current shareholders? In case of delisting and squeeze shareholders would have to accept the price offered by SDRL. Thus I think SDRL would offer a small premium to the price per share, may be 15 to 25 per cent.
    Jul 18, 2015. 02:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Idea: Buy Silver Wheaton, Part 1 - San Dimas [View article]
    Thanks for the link. I'll read it.
    Jul 15, 2015. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iamgold Provides An Update From Ongoing Exploration Of The Pitangui Project In Brazil [View article]
    The cash belongs to the creditors and shareholders and since CEO Letwin and his buddies have proven that they are bad dealmakers and bad miners, it would be in the best interest of creditors and shareholders if IAG buys back the loan at or below par and then uses the rest of the cash to buy back shares or paying an extraordinary dividend.

    Never forget: This cash hasn't been earned but is the result of selling assets which were the source of predictable and solid earnings. IAG has sold it's best assets and acquiring new assets would only make sense if the IRR of those assets is higher than that of the sold assets.
    Jul 15, 2015. 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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